{"title":"Political accountability and bureaucratic selection","authors":"Antonio León , Kelly Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The selection of public sector employees is crucial to state effectiveness. Given politicians’ influence on bureaucracies, could political accountability improve bureaucratic selection? Using randomized audits and individual-level data on Brazil’s public sector employees, this paper finds that audits enhance the quality of the bureaucracy. The results are driven by politicians’ increased incentives to perform well in office, stronger recruitment efforts, and a reduction in patronage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 105580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emergency care centers, hospital performance and population health","authors":"Sonia Bhalotra , Letícia Nunes , Rudi Rocha","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A core challenge for healthcare systems is ensuring timely care for critical conditions while efficiently managing lower-complexity cases. Hospitals, often overburdened by both, struggle to balance these demands and allocate resources effectively. Many countries have responded by introducing alternative 24/7 facilities to relieve hospital strain and improve patient outcomes, yet evidence on their impact remains limited. We evaluate the introduction of freestanding Emergency Care Centers (UPAs) within Brazil’s publicly funded health system, leveraging rich administrative data. We find that UPAs reduced hospital outpatient procedures by 30% and hospital admissions for ambulatory-sensitive conditions by 24–37%, enabling hospitals to focus on more complex cases, such as surgeries and obstetric admissions, which increased by 25%. We observe a 13% reduction in inpatient mortality, particularly in intensive care and for conditions best suited to hospital treatment. While some deaths were displaced to UPAs, there was a decline in population-level mortality of 1.8%, although this is not statistically significant. Our findings show how an intermediate tier of emergency care reshapes patient sorting, alleviates hospital congestion, and improves hospital performance in an overstretched public health system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 105573"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Not ready” as a productive wake-up call: Do second chances improve human capital investments?","authors":"Thorbjørn Sejr Guul , Søren Albeck Nielsen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a policy reform in Denmark that introduced a GPA threshold for academic readiness for upper secondary education 1.5 years before the end of middle school. Students near the threshold received similar information about their academic performance, but those just below it were labeled “not ready” and offered a second chance through reevaluation the following year. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we find that students just below the threshold improved their final middle school GPA, were more likely to complete high school, and subsequently more likely to enroll in post-secondary education. These effects are driven primarily by increased student effort, evidenced by higher conscientiousness and reduced part-time work, rather than changes in school or parental investment. Importantly, we find no adverse effects on student well-being. The positive effects are especially pronounced among students from low socioeconomic backgrounds and among girls, but we observe beneficial impacts across all subgroups. Our results suggest that entry criteria combined with second-chance opportunities can substantially improve students’ educational trajectories, particularly in the transition to upper secondary education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105563"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145904106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Precautionary liquidity and worker decisions: Evidence from French employee saving plans","authors":"Marie Briere , James Poterba , Ariane Szafarz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the demand for precautionary liquidity versus commitment contracts among participants in employer-sponsored retirement saving programs in France. All firms in the sample offer medium-term investments; they cannot be accessed for five years. Some also offer long-term (LT) investments, which cannot be accessed until retirement. If a plan offers LT investments, its auto-enrollment default must include them.<!--> <!-->Workers who experience changes in access to LT investments as a result of job changes are about 6 percentage points less likely to take up the plan default option, and 3 percentage points less likely to participate in the plan at all, when exposed to LT investments. We intepret this as a preference for precautionary liquidity, but two–thirds of active choosers still allocate some contributions, although less than the default, to LT investments, consistent with demand for partial commitment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105575"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bad networks","authors":"Robert Akerlof, Richard Holden, DJ Thornton","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is increasing evidence that social media is detrimental to mental health and self-esteem. A puzzle is why, in spite of this, people join these platforms. One possibility is that people feel compelled to participate: they dislike these networks—in particular, the way in which they generate rat races—but they need to be on them to socialize with peers. We refer to networks that harm users as “bad networks.” We model settings with network externalities and show that, surprisingly, bad networks are easy to establish. We also show that networks tend to be both bad and easy to establish when they create rat races—as social networks often do. Amplifying the rat race boosts network size which, while harmful to consumers, may benefit the platform.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105574"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Erik Grönqvist , Lena Hensvik , Yoko Okuyama , Anna Thoresson
{"title":"Women’s labor market opportunities and equality in the household","authors":"Erik Grönqvist , Lena Hensvik , Yoko Okuyama , Anna Thoresson","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how changes in couples’ relative wages affect the division of childcare. Using a nationwide wage reform that raised pay in the female-dominated teaching profession, we find that closing 25% of the earnings gap between female teachers and their male spouses led to a 12% reduction in the childcare time gap. This result holds when we extend the analysis to major pay raises for women at the population level. Data support the mechanism that women reduce their childcare time when the spouse can step in by working more from home. Policies that address female pay can foster household equality, if men have access to flexible work arrangements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105557"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146023794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Florian Englmaier , Matthias Fahn , Ulrich Glogowsky , Marco A. Schwarz
{"title":"When protection becomes exploitation: The impact of firing costs on Naïve Employees","authors":"Florian Englmaier , Matthias Fahn , Ulrich Glogowsky , Marco A. Schwarz","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper identifies a new channel through which employment protection laws can harm workers: they enable employers to exploit naïve present-biased employees. The theoretical mechanism through which firing costs enable exploitation is built upon a widespread career structure. Employers frequently offer career trajectories with an unattractive entry phase (e.g., with low pay or high effort), an even less attractive mid-career stage, and high rewards promised in a final career phase. Naïve employees accept such contracts, expecting to complete the high-reward track. They, however, eventually drop out or sort into alternative paths mid-career when costs loom large and rewards remain distant. As a result, employers avoid paying the promised rewards while capturing surplus from early-career phases. Firing costs give employers more leeway to exploit workers with such contracts: they reduce the employees’ expected risk of dismissal and make long-term rewards appear more credible. Employers can then exploit employees even more—for example, by lowering early-career wages—knowing that employees will still accept such steeper contracts despite not following through. Our model aligns with career patterns in fields such as healthcare, academia, or accounting. It also yields testable predictions on wage structures, attrition, and how firing costs and labor market conditions shape contract design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Air pollution as comparative disadvantage","authors":"Shi-Ting He , Liugang Sheng , Peng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper is the first to examine the impact of air pollution on exporters’ comparative advantage in the global market and their ensuing strategic responses. Using comprehensive firm-product export data from China spanning 2000 to 2007 and exploiting exogenous variation in air pollution induced by thermal inversions for identification, we estimate a detrimental effect of increased air pollution on exports through its adverse impact on labor productivity. The effects are particularly pronounced for labor-intensive products, prompting firms to restructure their product scope away from labor-intensive varieties. Moreover, larger firms exhibit greater resilience to these adverse effects. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that improving air quality in China would significantly enhance its comparative advantage and aggregate welfare, while also benefiting the rest of the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 105560"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The consequences of wildfire liability for firm precaution: Evidence from power shutoffs in California","authors":"Christopher Malloy","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines firm responses to the entire distribution of potential liability by studying power line-ignited fires in California’s electric utility sector. In this setting, when a power line-ignited fire damages a structure, the owner of the power line assumes the cost. The unique setting allows me to estimate how firm precautions vary across the entire distribution of liabilities they face. Using exogenous variation in firms’ expected liabilities from potential fire ignitions across days, I show that, on average, firms are 0.03 percentage points more likely to take costly precautionary actions as the level of expected liability that they face increases by 10 % (mean of 0.6 %). Applying a back of the envelope calculation suggests that, at its mean distribution circuit, the most responsive firm increases precautionary investments by $10 per dollar increase in its expected liability. Furthermore, I show that firms’ precautionary responses weaken as the likelihood of bankruptcy from expected liability increases. Applying the estimates to a stylized model implies that limiting firms’ exposure to liability across their service territory would create aggregate social welfare benefits between $27 million and $270 million.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 105552"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Katy Bergstrom, William Dodds, Nicholas Lacoste, Juan Rios
{"title":"Estimating the welfare cost of labor supply frictions","authors":"Katy Bergstrom, William Dodds, Nicholas Lacoste, Juan Rios","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies how much people would be willing to pay to remove frictions that impede them from working their ideal number of hours using two sufficient statistics: (1) the percentage difference between ideal (i.e., frictionless) hours and actual hours, and (2) the Hicksian elasticity of ideal hours with respect to the after-tax wage rate. We implement this method to construct estimates of the willingness-to-pay to remove frictions in the United States and Germany. There are three core findings: (1) the cost of adjustment frictions (an omnibus measure encompassing, for example, fixed costs of adjustment, discrete choice sets, and search costs) is large for any reasonable value of the Hicksian ideal hours elasticity, even when accounting for multiple labor supply decisions, endogenous wages, and dynamic decisions; (2) the cumulative cost of adjustment frictions and tax misperceptions is even larger: individuals in the U.S. (Germany) would be willing to pay at least 7 % (4 %) of their income on average to remove these two frictions in hours worked; and (3) adjustment frictions appear to be much more costly than tax misperceptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"253 ","pages":"Article 105556"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}