{"title":"Curtailed ambition: Endogenous power shift and preventive war","authors":"Lu Dong , Lingbo Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Preventive war arises from fears of future power shifts threatening the status quo. However, critics argue that since power shifts can be influenced by states’ strategic decisions, preventive war can always be avoided. Using a lab experiment and a representative survey, this paper investigates how states’ endogenous decisions affect the likelihood of conflict. We focus on two strategies: a containment policy, where rising states halt their own growth to prevent a power shift, and a commitment policy, where they make binding future offers without altering the power shift trajectory. Our findings show that while both policies reduce the likelihood of preventive war, containment is much less preferred than commitment. Additionally, declining states often resort to costly coercive containment measures rather than trusting the self-containment of rising states. In the representative survey, we pose conceptually similar questions to understand broader public opinions regarding international politics and find patterns that are consistent with the experimental results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 107413"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Terrorism and misperceptions: Evidence from Europe","authors":"K. Peren Arin , Umair Khalil , Deni Mazrekaj , Marcel Thum","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does exposure to Islamist terrorism change perceptions about Muslims and immigrants? We conducted a large-scale survey that measures misperceptions towards minority groups in four European countries. Our results show that terror attacks in the past increased misperceptions of the share of Muslims and immigrants. We also contend that this increase in misperceptions is particularly large and significant for lower-educated respondents and people from regions with a low share of the foreign population. Given that misperceptions are higher on average in regions with a large share of foreigners, terror attacks make misperceptions across different regions converge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 107408"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Efficient communication in organizations","authors":"Federico Vaccari","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the organization of communication between biased senders and a receiver in binary decision-making problems. Senders can misreport their private information at a cost. Efficiency is achieved by resolving information asymmetries without incurring these costs—i.e., by attaining the complete-information outcome. Only one communication protocol is efficient, robust to collusion, and free from unnecessary complexities. This protocol has a simple, adversarial, and sequential structure. It always induces efficient equilibria, for which a closed-form characterization is provided. The findings are relevant for the design of organizations seeking to improve decision-making while limiting wasteful influence activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"242 ","pages":"Article 107420"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Female legislators and forest conservation in India","authors":"Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay , Pranabes Probeshika Dutta , Naveen Hari , Bipasha Maity","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest conservation is a key strategy for addressing climate change. However, the role of women’s political representation in shaping conservation outcomes remains understudied. This paper examines the causal impact of female legislators on forest cover in India, leveraging a regression discontinuity design based on close mixed-gender electoral races. We find that electing a female legislator increases annual forest cover growth by 6 percentage points, but this effect is concentrated in constituencies reserved for candidates from historically marginalized groups. When we examine forest cover growth over the entire electoral cycle, the positive impact of female legislators is found for all constituencies, but this effect continues to be driven by constituencies reserved for historically disadvantaged communities. These findings suggest that women in political office can significantly influence environmental outcomes, particularly when institutional structures promote the inclusion of underrepresented groups. We argue that differences in environmental preferences and constraints by legislator identity may explain these effects. Our results underscore the importance of legislator identity in shaping environmental governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107375"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The political economy of privatization of education: Role of local politicians in India","authors":"Muneer Kalliyil , Soham Sahoo","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the role of political favouritism in the private education market. Using constituency-level panel data and a close-election regression discontinuity design, we estimate the causal effect of having a politician aligned with the state ruling party on the growth of private educational institutions in India. We find that constituencies represented by aligned politicians have a higher growth rate in the number of private schools, while the effect is insignificant for government schools. Similar patterns are also found for higher education institutions. As potential mechanisms, we explore political influence over bureaucratic processes and the direct involvement of politicians in opening the schools. A mediation analysis and examination of heterogeneous effects across the electoral term suggest that economic growth driven by ruling party-aligned leaders is unlikely to explain the increase in private school establishments. Additionally, we find that the effect of aligned politicians is concentrated in constituencies with lower-quality government schools, although the newly established private schools do not necessarily provide higher-quality education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107325"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The linguistic driver of divorce","authors":"Zeng Lian , Donald Lien , Jiawei Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107350","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107350","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of pro-drop language usage on divorce behaviours and attitudes. Using country-level divorce data and individual responses from the World Values Survey, we find that pro-drop speakers are less likely to be divorced and express lower support for divorce. These patterns hold after controlling for linguistic, cultural, and agro-climatic factors, and persist in within-country and matched-sample analyses. Mechanism analysis shows that while pro-drop aligns with collectivist values that discourage divorce, its association with divorce attitudes is only partly explained by them. Evidence from second-generation immigrants links parental exposure to pro-drop with children’s views on divorce, suggesting intergenerational influence of linguistic environments. The findings highlight the role of grammar in familial outcomes and offer insights for policymakers designing linguistically informed policy nudges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107350"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Online testing and educational inequality: Evidence from a national standardized test in Australia","authors":"Alberto Posso , Riyana Miranti","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effect of transitioning the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), a standardized assessment of student literacy and numeracy skills in Australia, to an online format on student test scores, with a particular focus on the disproportionate impact on lower-income groups. Utilizing school-level administrative data, we construct a panel of test scores across subjects (reading, writing, spelling, grammar, punctuation, and numeracy) and grades (3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th) for 10,529 schools over the period from 2008 to 2023, yielding a total of 1409,955 observations, with 919,934 from public schools. NAPLAN began its transition to online testing in 2018 and, by 2022, reached record-high participation, making it the largest online testing program in the world. Employing a staggered Difference-in-Differences methodology, the study shows that the shift to online testing is associated with a significant decrease in test scores, with this adverse effect being more pronounced among students from lower-income backgrounds. Specifically, online testing decreases average test scores by between 0.05 and 0.25 standard deviations (depending on the specification), while test scores from schools in the lowest income quintile are found to be between 0.10 and 0.17 standard deviations lower than those in the highest quintile.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107362"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jens Eckberg , Gregor Dorfleitner , Manuel C. Kathan , Sebastian Utz
{"title":"Determinants and forecasting of corporate greenwashing behavior","authors":"Jens Eckberg , Gregor Dorfleitner , Manuel C. Kathan , Sebastian Utz","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of corporate greenwashing behavior to enhance forecasting and mitigation of greenwashing practices, particularly in the context of stakeholder decision-making. Using company-level characteristics from a sample of STOXX Europe 600 constituents, we show that ESG and environmental (E) scores exhibit a U-shaped relationship with greenwashing, indicating that companies with both low and high (E)SG scores are more likely to engage in greenwashing. Additionally, ESG disclosure score, company size, cash-to-assets, and capital intensity are positively associated with greenwashing behavior. Furthermore, greenwashing behavior is more prevalent in consumer-related industries than in other industries. Building on the identified determinants of greenwashing behavior, we develop machine learning models grounded in economic theory to forecast greenwashing risk. Overall, our analyses demonstrate how current and future greenwashing risks can be effectively assessed. This enables stakeholders such as investors and policymakers to better identify corporate greenwashing behavior and incorporate the associated risks into their decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107354"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Caroline Perrin , Florian Léon , Francis Osei-Tutu
{"title":"Seeing risk, seizing opportunity: How perceived political instability affects firm investment","authors":"Caroline Perrin , Florian Léon , Francis Osei-Tutu","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does firm managers’ perception of political instability influence firms’ investment decisions? Using a large firm-level survey data of over 147,000 firms operating in 153 countries, we find evidence that a higher perception of political instability is positively related to firms’ investments. This effect is observed both on the extensive margin (likelihood to invest) and intensive margin (amount invested) and for investment in both land and equipment. Perception of political instability also influence how firms finance their investments: firms hold more cash on hand and borrow more from banks when they perceive political instability to be high. We also document that this effect is only observable for small and medium enterprises and those operating in less democratic regimes. The actual level of political instability in a country, however, has no effect on firm investment. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107382"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ann-Kathrin Blankenberg , Martin Binder , Israel Waichman
{"title":"Mismatch between measures of “greenness”: Evidence from a field experiment on self-reports and observed behavior","authors":"Ann-Kathrin Blankenberg , Martin Binder , Israel Waichman","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We run a field experiment with <span><math><mrow><mi>n</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>599</mn></mrow></math></span> participants selected from the waiting room of a town hall of a medium-sized German town that demonstrates a clear mismatch between three measures of “greenness” frequently used by researchers: self-reports, donations to environmental charities, and product choice experiments. We find that an aggregate index of self-reports on 20 different past pro-environmental behaviors only weakly correlates (<span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mo>.</mo><msup><mn>09</mn><mo>*</mo></msup></mrow></math></span>) with an observed pro-environmental product choice. Our preferred own money donation task also exhibits only weak correlation with both a self-report index (<span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mo>.</mo><msup><mn>15</mn><mo>*</mo></msup></mrow></math></span>) and the product choice task (<span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mo>.</mo><msup><mn>17</mn><mo>*</mo></msup></mrow></math></span>), but as our experimental variation shows, this is only the case if the donation paradigm is modified to allow sorting between prosocial and environmental charities. Conversely, we show that correlations disappear for the donation task if it is structured without a competing non-environmental prosocial option. Our results are unaffected by whether the respondent is a student or working professional and robust to different ways of aggregating individual self-report items. Our results support the concern that pro-environmental behaviors are difficult to measure consistently with the instruments that are to-date most commonly applied by researchers, but that there is some room to modify experimental designs to produce measures that yield more correlated outcomes across instruments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 107347"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}