Pascal Kieren , Christian König-Kersting , Robert Schmidt , Stefan Trautmann , Franziska Heinicke
{"title":"First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about Households and Firms","authors":"Pascal Kieren , Christian König-Kersting , Robert Schmidt , Stefan Trautmann , Franziska Heinicke","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the relationship between first-order and higher-order inflation expectations. Using two novel survey modules of German households and firms, we establish several new insights on the relation between different orders of beliefs. While our results are remarkably consistent for households and firm managers, they exhibit relevant differences to previous results documented in the literature. Most importantly, our results show that uncertainty aggregates when individuals think about the beliefs of others relative to their own beliefs. We derive implications for calibrating noisy information models with infinite regress and discuss potential sources for differences in results documented in the literature and their theoretical implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasts as repeated cheap talk from an expert of unknown statistical bias","authors":"Irene Valsecchi","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For two periods an expert <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> announces his forecast of the state to a decision-maker <span><math><mi>D</mi></math></span>. <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> and <span><math><mi>D</mi></math></span> disagree about the precision of the probability assessments that <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> makes. At the end of period 1 the state is observed, and <span><math><mi>D</mi></math></span> updates his opinion about <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> as a forecaster. In period 2 <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> tends to make announcements more extreme than his forecasts. Despite no upper bound to the cardinality of the final equilibrium partition, full revelation is never realized. In period 1 <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span> takes into account that his report affects his reputation. This consideration can mitigate <span><math><mi>E</mi></math></span>’s incentive to exaggerate. However, full revelation is impossible and the equilibria are partitional.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ultimatum game: Regret or fairness?","authors":"L.H. Aleksanyan , A.E. Allahverdyan , V.G. Bardakhchyan","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the ultimatum game, the challenge is to explain why responders reject non-zero offers thereby defying classical rationality. Fairness and related concepts have been among the main explanations so far. Here, the ultimatum game is reformulated based on probabilistic lotteries, enabling modern decision-making tools to be applied to this problem. We explain the rejection behavior via the following principle: if the responder regrets less about losing the offer than the proposer regrets not offering a better option, the offer is rejected. This principle qualifies as a rational conflict behavior. Similar concepts were applied in the economy of wars. The principle replaces the experimentally falsified classical rationality (the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium) that leads to accepting any non-zero offer. It is implemented via the transitive regret theory for probabilistic lotteries. The expected utility implementation is a limiting case of this. We show that several experimental results normally prescribed to fairness and intent-recognition can be given an alternative explanation; e.g. the comparison between “fair” and “superfair”, the behavior under raising the stakes, the influence of the initial wealth, <em>etc</em>. Hence we also propose experiments that can distinguish these two scenarios (fairness versus regret). They assume different utilities for the proposer and responder. We focus on the mini-ultimatum version of the game and also show how it can emerge from a more general setup.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106969"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rabah Amir , Arup Bose , Debashis Pal , Iryna Topolyan
{"title":"Risk aversion and the punishment paradox in a crime game","authors":"Rabah Amir , Arup Bose , Debashis Pal , Iryna Topolyan","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a simple game-theoretic model of criminal decision making as a coordination game between potential criminals, assuming that the expected punishment is perceived as lower than the gains from crime, for behavioral reasons. With three Nash equilibria (two in pure and one in mixed strategies), we invoke Pareto and risk dominance criteria to discuss equilibrium selection. The (completely-mixed) minmax strategies of the corresponding zero-sum game coincide with the unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium of the original game. We show that, at the unique symmetric mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, the probability of committing a crime is positively related to the severity of punishment and negatively related to the reward from criminal activity and to the size of the population of potential criminals. We also analyze the effect of risk aversion on criminality and find that higher risk aversion increases the propensity for crime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106985"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competitiveness at the intersection of gender and sexual orientation","authors":"Billur Aksoy, Ian Chadd","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the relationship between sexual orientation, gender, and competitiveness in the United States using an online experiment. We document a novel sexual minority gap in willingness to compete, wherein gay and lesbian individuals compete less than their heterosexual counterparts. Furthermore, we find that the well-documented gender gap in competitiveness does not depend on sexual orientation: both lesbian and heterosexual women compete less than their male counterparts. Differences in competitiveness are mostly explained by differences in self-confidence, with the exception of the gender gap between lesbian and gay participants. Additionally, we study the consequences of inferring sexual orientation through associated indicators. We find that inference based on sexual attraction produces estimates similar to our main analysis based on identity; inference using sexual experience does not. Our findings highlight how the increased availability of self-reported identity data can provide new economic insights into these historically understudied populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Depression and Risky Health Behaviors","authors":"Alex Xingbang Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106983","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106983","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Risky health behaviors are a major source of preventable deaths in the world. I estimate the effect of depression on risky health behaviors at different stages of the life course. To tackle unobservable confounders and reverse causality, I exploit variations in friend and family suicide attempts and a genetic score for depression as instrumental variables. I find that one standard deviation increase in depression leads to a 4% higher probability of having unprotected sex and a 16% higher probability of smoking cigarettes. Depression could promote individuals’ risky health behaviors through altering their risk preferences, noncognitive skills, and perceived social support.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106983"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Less but better? The influence of gender on political activity","authors":"Nicolas Frémeaux , Paul Maarek","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this article, we study gender differences in the activity and effectiveness of French parliamentarians between 1993 and 2022. Using fixed-effect regressions, we find that women author less bills than men but there are no significant differences for other outcomes such as amendments or oral questions. The gender gap for bills is observed only for newcomers and fades after the first half of the term, suggesting a difference in attitudes rather than a selection effect. Conversely, women are substantially more effective: each term, 46 amendments authored by women pass, whereas 33 of the men’s amendments pass. This is mostly due to the use and quality of their amendments, with men being more prone to obstructive behaviors for instance. On the other hand, women in the opposition party are less slightly likely to have their bills passed than men in the opposition party. This is linked to discrimination within the party, which less often selects bills drafted by women to submit them to a vote. All these results are robust when using RDD strategies based on close elections. Overall, gender quotas have positive effects on parliamentary work as effectiveness is crucial in policy making. It is however essential to create an environment favorable to the inclusion of women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106980"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Richard B. Freeman , Xiaofei Pan , Xiaolan Yang , Maoliang Ye
{"title":"Team incentives and lower ability workers: A real-effort experiment","authors":"Richard B. Freeman , Xiaofei Pan , Xiaolan Yang , Maoliang Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite a large literature on team incentives, studies on teams in a purely financial sense are limited. In such environments, team members independently engage in tasks with identifiable individual contributions, while their compensation is partially linked to team outputs. We conducted an experiment of such scenario with three distribution schemes (equal sharing, individual piece rate, and winner-takes-all) and examined these schemes both with and without a team threshold. Our results showed the surprising power of equal sharing on improving team productivity compared to winner-takes-all and individual piece-rate, contradicting the predictions of the standard economics theory. Our findings reveal that the higher team output observed under equal sharing was driven by the increased productivity of less able workers. This could be attributed to an explanation of guilt aversion and cannot be illuminated by several alternative theories. We also found that participants preferred piece rate over the other schemes. Yet, the presence of a team threshold highlighted the importance of cooperation, leading to a greater preference for equal sharing. Our findings suggest that organizations with workers of varying abilities are likely to benefit from an appropriate equal sharing component tailored to their responsiveness to sharing in rewards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106986"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impacts of raising the public pension eligibility age on time allocation of elderly people: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Shinya Inukai","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With many countries facing aging populations, the sustainability of public pensions has become a pressing issue. I evaluate the impacts, including both employment and time allocation, of public pension reform on the lifestyles of the elderly. In Japan, all residents aged 20 or older are covered by the public pension, with eligibility determined mechanically based on age. I focus on the reform raising the eligibility age from 60 to 61 in 2001 for men. I estimate the impacts using a sharp regression discontinuity design with the birth month as the running variable, setting April 1941 for males as the cutoff. The results show that the reform for men increases employment rates by 20.7 percentage points and work-related hours by 167.2 min per day but has the effect of decreasing men’s housework-related activities by 23.4 min, leisure for relaxation by 28.6 min, and social activities by 71.4 min per day on weekdays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106984"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez , Ciril Bosch-Rosa , Thomas Meissner
{"title":"Direct Elicitation of Parametric Belief Distributions: An application to inflation expectations","authors":"Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez , Ciril Bosch-Rosa , Thomas Meissner","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce a novel method to elicit belief distributions and apply it to elicit inflation expectations in a representative US sample through a pre-registered survey experiment. Our approach elicits beta belief distributions directly in a two-step process. First, participants specify their minimum and maximum inflation. They then use a graphical interface with two sliders to adjust the mean and variance of their inflation belief distribution. We benchmark our method against the “Bins” method, popularized by the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Our findings reveal significant variations in elicited belief distributions depending on the method used. Specifically, our approach yields higher mean inflation estimates and substantially reduces the standard deviations of the distributions. Respondents report that our method is easier to use and more engaging. Furthermore, the resulting distributions more accurately reflect participants’ beliefs across several dimensions and show stronger correlations with their point predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 106947"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}