Demography最新文献_第4页

Cohort Fertility and Couple Educational Pairing. 群体生育与夫妻教育配对。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-06-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12628005

Linus Andersson, Natalie Nitsche, Alessandra Trimarchi, Marika Jalovaara

引用次数: 0

Effect of First Births on Women's Employment in a Low-Income Context: Research Note Using Panel Data From Nepal. 在低收入背景下，第一胎对妇女就业的影响：使用尼泊尔面板数据的研究说明。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-06-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12675345

Sarah Brauner-Otto, Lyman Stone

引用次数: 0

Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States. 解耦?2010年代美国婚姻与生育的持续相关性

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530630

Kristen Lagasse Burke

{"title":"Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States.","authors":"Kristen Lagasse Burke","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530630","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12530630","url":null,"abstract":"Prevailing theories of family change and the relevance of marriage in the United States hinge on the steady rise in births to unmarried women that unfolded during the latter half of the twentieth century and into the 2000s. This increase was concentrated among individuals with lower education levels, raising concern about inequality in children's family circumstances. Despite theoretical expectations that this trend would continue, the proportion of births to unmarried women plateaued during the 2010s. By examining trends in union formation and childbearing patterns by union status using data from the 2006‒2023 American Community Survey, this study investigates the ongoing link between marriage and childbearing underlying this plateau. Birth and marriage rates fell throughout the 2010s. However, in a reversal, married women became increasingly likely to have children relative to their unmarried peers, particularly among those with a high school education or less. These findings challenge theories about the changing social meaning of marriage, suggesting that norms regarding marriage remain robust rather than becoming deinstitutionalized. Furthermore, this study highlights how the declining marriage rate has contributed to the ongoing decline in the birth rate in the United States, implying that barriers to marriage may also create barriers to childbearing.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"695-714"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147640225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ryder's Lost Legacy? A Research Note on Cohort Analysis in Social Research. 莱德丢失的遗产？社会研究中的队列分析研究纪要。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12570035

Ethan Fosse

{"title":"Ryder's Lost Legacy? A Research Note on Cohort Analysis in Social Research.","authors":"Ethan Fosse","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12570035","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12570035","url":null,"abstract":"Norman Ryder's (1965) seminal essay on cohort analysis has inspired generations of demographers and sociologists to investigate social change by identifying unique \"effects\" of age, period, and cohort (APC) on various outcomes. However, despite advances in technical sophistication, APC analysis remains highly controversial, exacerbated by the lack of clear guidance in Ryder's work on conducting a cohort analysis. This research note draws on unpublished archival materials to elucidate the key components of Ryder's cohort approach, revealing his main steps for analyzing APC data. Importantly, Ryder rejected conventional APC analysis as it has developed in the literature. Instead of extracting distinct APC \"effects,\" he aimed to differentiate intracohort from intercohort trends, which together form Ryderian comparative cohort careers. Unlike traditional APC analysis, Ryder's approach is explicitly cohort-based, diachronic, and purely descriptive, requiring no additional information external to the data. Consequently, a Ryderian cohort analysis can help reconcile seemingly divergent findings and establish a foundation for consensus across multiple domains. To facilitate methodological and theoretical development, this note outlines the primary steps for conducting a cohort analysis from a Ryderian perspective and concludes with practical recommendations for further research.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"403-418"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impaired Cognitive and Behavioral Functioning in Childhood and Economic Outcomes in Adulthood. 儿童认知和行为功能受损与成年后的经济结果。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12543998

Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Nancy E Reichman

{"title":"Impaired Cognitive and Behavioral Functioning in Childhood and Economic Outcomes in Adulthood.","authors":"Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Nancy E Reichman","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12543998","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12543998","url":null,"abstract":"Developmental disabilities are prevalent among U.S. children, child disability rates have been increasing, and the increases have been driven by cognitive and behavioral disorders. This study estimates the effects of low cognitive test scores and high behavior problem scores in childhood on educational attainment, employment, wages, and access to transportation and credit in adulthood. We assess cognitive and behavior scores at multiple time points during childhood and estimate cross-household and household fixed-effects models. We find that individuals with low cognitive scores in childhood are 10% less likely to graduate from high school, 23% less likely to be employed, 31% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and 18% less likely to have a credit card, and they have 51% lower earnings compared with individuals with higher cognitive scores. We also find that individuals with high behavior problem scores in childhood are 7% less likely to graduate from high school, 11% less likely to be employed, and 13% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and they have 14% lower earnings compared with those with lower behavior problem scores. The findings have important implications for well-being over the life course for a nontrivial share of the U.S. population as well as their families and communities.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"483-509"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147700392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accounting for Race Response Change in Population Projections: A Research Note. 人口预测中的种族反应变化：一份研究报告。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12563735

Carolyn A Liebler

引用次数: 0

Infant Mortality Expectation and Fertility Behavior in Rural Malawi. 马拉维农村婴儿死亡率预期和生育行为。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12553282

Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler, Ali Vergili

引用次数: 0

Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: Duration, Timing, and Educational Outcomes. 儿童净值贫困：持续时间、时间和教育成果。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12563780

Christina Gibson-Davis, Lisa A Keister, Lisa Gennetian, Shuyi Qiu

{"title":"Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: Duration, Timing, and Educational Outcomes.","authors":"Christina Gibson-Davis, Lisa A Keister, Lisa Gennetian, Shuyi Qiu","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12563780","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12563780","url":null,"abstract":"Net worth poverty (NWP) is the modal form of poverty for American children, but how it is experienced across childhood and its associations with human capital accumulation are unknown. Using data from the 1999‒2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a cohort of children followed from birth to age 20, this study measures NWP exposure and duration across the child's life course and relates NWP exposure and duration to high school graduation and college attendance. NWP refers to households whose wealth is less than one fourth of the federal poverty line. Findings show that through age 18, children experienced more frequent and enduring spells of net worth poverty than income poverty. NWP was negatively associated with high school graduation and college attendance independent of the effects of income poverty. Effects were larger for college attendance than for high school graduation, perhaps reflecting the resource-intensive nature of college. The negative effects of NWP were most pronounced for the 31% of the sample that experienced NWP in most waves. The timing of NWP relative to developmental stage did not seem to matter, as children were at risk regardless of the age at which they experienced it.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"667-693"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13120717/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of Multiracial Marriage. 模糊婚姻市场？当代多种族婚姻模式。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530612

Aaron Gullickson, Jenifer Bratter

{"title":"Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of Multiracial Marriage.","authors":"Aaron Gullickson, Jenifer Bratter","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530612","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12530612","url":null,"abstract":"Research on interracial marriage has only begun to incorporate the growing mixed-race population. Using the 2010-2019 pooled American Community Survey, we explore the likelihood of a range of spousal pairings relative to racial endogamy for multiracial people while accounting for group size and controls for education, age, and immigration status. A distinguishing feature of marriage for multiracial individuals is the possibility of a partial overlap in racial identification-having one component race in common with one's partner. We find that exact racial endogamy for many multiracial individuals is relatively quite high, once we adjust for group size, and that partial endogamy through overlap increases the likelihood of a union. Furthermore, partial overlap in racial identification between multiracial and monoracial partners reveals the importance of racial classification regimes determining how multiracial individuals are treated in the marriage market. We find no evidence of a general affinity among multiracial individuals who do not share racial ancestry or that multiracial individuals' partner choices are less affected by race than the choices of monoracial individuals. These patterns have implications for the significance of established racial boundaries and the ongoing churning of racial categories, even as those categories become more ancestrally complex.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"643-666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147634690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration. 回归年龄：人口年龄分布预测中的人口迁移。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12569854

Nathan G Welch, Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E Raftery

{"title":"Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration.","authors":"Nathan G Welch, Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E Raftery","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12569854","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12569854","url":null,"abstract":"Existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate and forecast international net migration rates for the 200 most populous countries, taking account of changes in population age structure. We use age-standardized estimates of country-level net migration rates and in-migration (i.e., immigration) rates over five-year periods from 1990 through 2020 to decompose past net migration rates into in-migration rates and out-migration (i.e., emigration) rates. We then recalculate historic migration rates on a scale that removes the influence of the population age distribution. This is done by scaling past and projected migration rates in terms of a reference population and period using a quantity we call the migration age structure index (MASI). We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate joint probabilistic forecasts of net migration rates over five-year periods for all countries through 2100. We find that accounting for population age structure in historic and forecast net migration rates leads to narrower prediction intervals by the end of the century for most countries. Furthermore, accounting for population age structure leads to less out-migration among countries with rapidly aging populations that are forecast to contract most rapidly by the end of the century. This approach leads to less drastic population declines than are forecast without accounting for population age structure.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"715-740"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0