Demography最新文献_第10页

Polygyny and Fertility: Continuity or Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. 一夫多妻制与生育：撒哈拉以南非洲的延续或变化。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12259497

Sophia Chae, Victor Agadjanian

{"title":"Polygyny and Fertility: Continuity or Change in Sub-Saharan Africa.","authors":"Sophia Chae, Victor Agadjanian","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12259497","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12259497","url":null,"abstract":"This study revisits the polygyny‒fertility relationship in sub-Saharan Africa amid significant sociodemographic transformations, including declines in both fertility rates and the prevalence of polygyny. Using data from multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys across 23 African countries, we examine the contribution of polygyny to reductions in the total fertility rate (TFR), explore how the polygyny‒fertility relationship has evolved over time, and assess changes in the total number of children ever born, number of recent births, ideal fertility, and the desire for another child by polygyny status. Our findings show that the decline in polygyny has substantially contributed to reductions in TFR. While realized fertility-measured by children ever born and recent births-has declined for all married women, reductions have been greater among women in monogamous unions. Fertility preferences, including ideal fertility and the desire for another child, have decreased only among women in monogamous unions, while remaining stable for those in polygynous unions. Additionally, except for children ever born, we find minimal variation in fertility outcomes by wife's rank within polygynous unions. Taken together, these results underscore the complex influence of marriage systems on fertility and highlight the distinct fertility patterns of women in monogamous versus polygynous unions.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1717-1740"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145294089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Single Parenthood, Gender, and Mortality. 单亲、性别和死亡率。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12234087

Mine Kühn, Angela Carollo, Jennifer Caputo, Linda Juel Ahrenfeldt, Anna Oksuzyan

{"title":"Single Parenthood, Gender, and Mortality.","authors":"Mine Kühn, Angela Carollo, Jennifer Caputo, Linda Juel Ahrenfeldt, Anna Oksuzyan","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12234087","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12234087","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the well-documented health disadvantages of single motherhood, research on single fathers' health remains limited owing to scarce data on this growing population. The influence of life course factors, such as partnership history and timing, on single parents' health is also understudied. Using high-quality register data on the total Danish population, this study (1) compares the mortality risk of single and partnered parents and (2) investigates heterogeneity in single parents' mortality by considering pathways into single parenthood, repartnering, child age, and episode length. Results show that single fathers have the highest all-cause mortality risk of all parent groups. Cause-specific analyses suggest that they are at especially high risk of dying by suicide or substance abuse. Mortality rates are higher for mothers entering single parenthood through being unpartnered than through partnership loss. Repartnering mitigates the negative effects of single parenthood. Mothers experiencing single parenthood when their youngest child was aged 1‒5 have lower mortality risk than peers who became single mothers of teenagers. The length of time spent as a single parent does not influence mortality. These findings highlight considerable diversity in parents' longevity and underscore the need for further attention to the health disadvantages of single fathers.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1553-1580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145126311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cumulative Effect of Retirement on Mortality. 退休对死亡率的累积效应。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12246732

Shiro Furuya

引用次数: 0

Trends in Postsecondary Enrollment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Research Note. COVID-19大流行期间中学后入学趋势：一项研究说明。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12246521

Patrick Denice, Kamma Andersen

{"title":"Trends in Postsecondary Enrollment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Research Note.","authors":"Patrick Denice, Kamma Andersen","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12246521","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12246521","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted nearly every aspect of economic and social life in the United States, especially education. This research note draws on student-level administrative data from one U.S. state to describe how trends in postsecondary enrollment changed during the pandemic. First, students were less likely to enroll in postsecondary institutions following high school graduation during the pandemic, and these declines were most prominent among lower income, Hispanic, and Black students. Second, rates of sustained enrollment in both the immediate year following high school graduation and the next year fell more substantially among lower income, Hispanic, and Black students during the pandemic than they did among higher income and White students. Third, students made different decisions about where to enroll: higher income, White, and Asian students increased their enrollment in public four-year schools, decreased their enrollment in private four-year schools, and were more likely to attend college in-state, whereas lower income, Black, and Hispanic students experienced broad declines across institutional sectors and locations. These results paint a picture of growing socioeconomic and racial and ethnic inequalities in whether and where students pursued postsecondary education, highlighting the unequal barriers placed on traditionally underserved high school graduates during the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1441-1456"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145214242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Does the Risk of Dementia Change With Each Additional Year of Education? 每增加一年的教育，患痴呆症的风险是如何变化的？

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12231508

Hyungmin Cha, Mateo P Farina, Mark D Hayward

{"title":"How Does the Risk of Dementia Change With Each Additional Year of Education?","authors":"Hyungmin Cha, Mateo P Farina, Mark D Hayward","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12231508","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12231508","url":null,"abstract":"The risk of dementia is considerably lower among persons with a high educational attainment level than among less educated persons. This association has been documented across countries, cohorts, and populations. However, several questions remain unanswered. What is the rate of decline in dementia risk associated with additional education? Does the rate of decline with additional education differ across the education distribution? Are there key points in the education distribution that demark changes in the association, such as completing high school? Using the 2000-2018 Health and Retirement Study, we use a functional form approach to evaluate how dementia risk changes with each year of education among non-Hispanic White and Black older adults. We observe a linear decline in dementia incidence with increasing years of educational attainment, both before and after 12 years of education. This pattern is consistent across population subgroups. Additionally, dementia risk displays a step-change decline at 12 years of education, but this reduction is observed primarily among men and White adults. These findings underscore the significance of educational exposure in understanding population differences in dementia risk and future changes in the burden of dementia in the population.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1497-1521"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13589511/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145126317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Goodbye Norway: Top-Earners Selection Into Return and Onward Migration. 再见挪威：高收入者选择回国和继续移民。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12271149

Amelie F Constant, Astri Syse, Marianne Tønnessen

{"title":"Goodbye Norway: Top-Earners Selection Into Return and Onward Migration.","authors":"Amelie F Constant, Astri Syse, Marianne Tønnessen","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12271149","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12271149","url":null,"abstract":"We use high-quality panel data on the entire population of Norway to study first-generation immigrants who arrived for labor and out-migrate during our observation period (2000‒2020). We utilize rarely available official information about status-at-arrival and destination-upon-exit to disaggregate immigrants into returnees, onward migrants, and stayers, which enables us to investigate underlying selection mechanisms and offer a better understanding of the sorting of immigrants into different countries and new awareness of the self-selection of stayers. Our findings demonstrate significant selection for all characteristics, which are differentially associated with return and onward migration. Interestingly, women are more migratory than men, while the employed are less likely to out-migrate. Although both the low and high educated are more likely to return and migrate onward, the highest educated exhibit the greatest odds of out-migration. Immigrants with no and higher-than-average earnings are more likely to return and move onward, resulting in a U-shaped effect. It is remarkable that the top earners' emigration is toward either destination, revealing notable differences across egalitarian income distributions. Nordic immigrants are the most likely to return, and other non-Europeans are the most likely to move onward. Our findings remain robust to several tests, however, they do not systematically conform to the predictions of labor migration theories.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1761-1787"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12867476/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145309597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temporary Employment and First Births: A Path Analysis of the Underlying Mechanisms Using Australian and German Panel Data. 临时就业和第一生育：利用澳大利亚和德国面板数据对潜在机制的路径分析。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12234731

Inga Laß, Irma Mooi-Reci, Martin Bujard, Mark Wooden

{"title":"Temporary Employment and First Births: A Path Analysis of the Underlying Mechanisms Using Australian and German Panel Data.","authors":"Inga Laß, Irma Mooi-Reci, Martin Bujard, Mark Wooden","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12234731","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12234731","url":null,"abstract":"In many countries, temporary work (including fixed-term and casual employment contracts) is negatively associated with fertility. Yet, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain poorly understood. This study investigates several mediating pathways (wages, financial satisfaction, short tenure, and subjective job insecurity) through which temporary work influences the transition to first birth in two contrasting contexts: Australia and Germany. Event-history and path models are estimated using 19 years of data from both the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (n = 28,530) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (n = 31,608). Results show that casual work among women and men in Australia and fixed-term contracts among women in Germany are associated with a lower likelihood of first birth than permanent employment. Lower wages explain a significant proportion of these differences for both genders. The higher likelihood of being new in a job (in Germany) and higher perceived job insecurity (in Australia) are relevant mediators only among women, whereas the subjective financial situation was not a relevant mediator for any group. These findings suggest that a less favorable objective financial situation plays a crucial role in first-birth postponement by temporary workers, whereas perceived economic and employment uncertainty are not universally associated with first-birth decisions.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1607-1633"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145240165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evolution of Widowhood Lifespan and Its Gender and Educational Inequalities in Finland Over Three Decades. 芬兰30年来寡妇寿命的演变及其性别和教育不平等。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12269717

Margherita Moretti, Kaarina Korhonen, Alyson van Raalte, Timothy Riffe, Pekka Martikainen

{"title":"Evolution of Widowhood Lifespan and Its Gender and Educational Inequalities in Finland Over Three Decades.","authors":"Margherita Moretti, Kaarina Korhonen, Alyson van Raalte, Timothy Riffe, Pekka Martikainen","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12269717","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12269717","url":null,"abstract":"Widowhood is a disruptive life event, and in aging societies, increased numbers of individuals are potentially exposed to it. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the demography of widowhood. Using total population data with information on marital and cohabiting unions, discrete-time event-history analysis, and incidence-based multistate life tables, we analyze lifetime risk of widowhood, mean age at becoming widowed, widowhood expectancy, and variation in years spent widowed, and also document gender and educational differences in these metrics over the last three decades in Finland. Our results show that, over time, individuals are less likely to experience widowhood, and when they do, it occurs at older ages. Compared with men, women have higher widowhood risk and widowhood expectancy (duration) and a lower mean age at widowhood. Widowhood expectancy for women declined from 8 to 6 years between 1988 and 2018, whereas for men it stagnated at around 2 years. Low-educated women faced more widowhood years than the highly educated, while the opposite held for men. In showing decreased risks, delayed onset, and shorter widowhood expectancy, particularly among women, our results suggest that the current older population may experience reduced exposure to the psychosocial and financial challenges of widowhood, with potentially reduced caregiving burden on families and the state.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1635-1660"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145294009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Contribution of Educational Expansion to Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation in England and Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin). 教育扩张对英格兰、威尔士、芬兰和意大利预期寿命和寿命变化趋势的贡献（都灵）。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12270715

Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni, Leo van Wissen, Pekka Martikainen, Fanny Janssen

{"title":"The Contribution of Educational Expansion to Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation in England and Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin).","authors":"Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni, Leo van Wissen, Pekka Martikainen, Fanny Janssen","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12270715","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12270715","url":null,"abstract":"Educational expansion has contributed considerably to increasing life expectancy, but its contribution to lifespan variation trends is unclear. We assessed the contributions of educational expansion and mortality changes by educational group to trends in life expectancy (e30) and lifespan variation (e30†) at age 30 in England and Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin) in 1975-2015. We applied decomposition analysis to education-specific mortality rates by age and sex derived from individually linked administrative mortality data by country, educational attainment (low, middle, and high), sex, age, and calendar year. Educational expansion contributed simultaneously to increasing e30 and decreasing e30† for all age groups studied. The contribution of educational expansion to the trends in e30 and e30† was higher in Finland, particularly for e30†; it was higher among males than among females in England and Wales and in Italy. Over time, the contribution of the educational expansion to trends in e30 and e30† increased. Mortality changes among the low-educated contributed the most to increases in e30 but counterbalanced selected declines in e30†. Educational expansion thus proved to be an important driver of both longer and more equal lifespans. Our finding suggests that educational expansion will also likely influence future mortality progress.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1689-1715"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145304043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparing the Role of Selection in Early Adolescent Substance Use Disparities Related to Single-Mother Family Structures Across Three Affluent Countries. 比较选择在三个富裕国家与单亲母亲家庭结构相关的青少年早期物质使用差异中的作用。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12253547

Jared D Thorpe, Robert Crosnoe

{"title":"Comparing the Role of Selection in Early Adolescent Substance Use Disparities Related to Single-Mother Family Structures Across Three Affluent Countries.","authors":"Jared D Thorpe, Robert Crosnoe","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12253547","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12253547","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated the association between family structure and the onset of substance use by early adolescence (e.g., before age 14) in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with a focus on the role of selection in this association. Leveraging nationally representative surveys, logistic regression models estimated this association while iteratively controlling for three sets of selection mechanisms and testing for differential robustness to unobserved traits. Results revealed higher substance use rates among early adolescents living with single mothers than among those living with married mothers; early adolescents living with cohabiting mothers fell between these two groups. In general, mothers' family formation histories and, especially, socioemotional adjustment emerged as key confounds attenuating these associations, whereas their socioeconomic histories more often suppressed substance use. Unobserved confounds also appeared to be at work. Such patterns were fairly consistent across countries, but some evidence suggests that single motherhood mattered more to early adolescent substance use (particularly alcohol) and was less selective in terms of observed and unobserved confounds in Australia, the country with the most policy buffers for families and youths facing hardship.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1661-1687"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13232638/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145253097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0