Demography最新文献

{"title":"Ryder's Lost Legacy? A Research Note on Cohort Analysis in Social Research.","authors":"Ethan Fosse","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12570035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12570035","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Norman Ryder's (1965) seminal essay on cohort analysis has inspired generations of demographers and sociologists to investigate social change by identifying unique \"effects\" of age, period, and cohort (APC) on various outcomes. However, despite advances in technical sophistication, APC analysis remains highly controversial, exacerbated by the lack of clear guidance in Ryder's work on conducting a cohort analysis. This research note draws on unpublished archival materials to elucidate the key components of Ryder's cohort approach, revealing his main steps for analyzing APC data. Importantly, Ryder rejected conventional APC analysis as it has developed in the literature. Instead of extracting distinct APC \"effects,\" he aimed to differentiate intracohort from intercohort trends, which together form Ryderian comparative cohort careers. Unlike traditional APC analysis, Ryder's approach is explicitly cohort-based, diachronic, and purely descriptive, requiring no additional information external to the data. Consequently, a Ryderian cohort analysis can help reconcile seemingly divergent findings and establish a foundation for consensus across multiple domains. To facilitate methodological and theoretical development, this note outlines the primary steps for conducting a cohort analysis from a Ryderian perspective and concludes with practical recommendations for further research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration.","authors":"Nathan G Welch, Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E Raftery","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12569854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12569854","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate and forecast international net migration rates for the 200 most populous countries, taking account of changes in population age structure. We use age-standardized estimates of country-level net migration rates and in-migration (i.e., immigration) rates over five-year periods from 1990 through 2020 to decompose past net migration rates into in-migration rates and out-migration (i.e., emigration) rates. We then recalculate historic migration rates on a scale that removes the influence of the population age distribution. This is done by scaling past and projected migration rates in terms of a reference population and period using a quantity we call the migration age structure index (MASI). We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate joint probabilistic forecasts of net migration rates over five-year periods for all countries through 2100. We find that accounting for population age structure in historic and forecast net migration rates leads to narrower prediction intervals by the end of the century for most countries. Furthermore, accounting for population age structure leads to less out-migration among countries with rapidly aging populations that are forecast to contract most rapidly by the end of the century. This approach leads to less drastic population declines than are forecast without accounting for population age structure.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Varieties of Capitalism and Cross-national Variation in Fertility Rates.","authors":"Masoud Movahed, Emilio A Parrado","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12563895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12563895","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The institutional approach to explaining cross-national variation in demographic outcomes has gained increasing visibility in both academic research and public policy discourse. In this vein, much of the literature has focused on the effects of welfare programs on risk management and the associated costs of fertility. However, an alternative, more comprehensive perspective, namely, the \"varieties of capitalism,\" emphasizes the role of broader social-structural and institutional characteristics of national economies in generating socioeconomic outcomes. This perspective has not been extended to debates around cross-national differences in demographic outcomes. We fill this void by elaborating on a varieties of capitalism account of cross-national and longitudinal variation in fertility rates. Drawing on panel data spanning more than three decades (1985‒2019) across 21 countries in the Global North, we investigate how institutional factors, through the lens of the varieties of capitalism perspective, correlate with differences in total fertility rates between countries and over time. Our results demonstrate that crucial institutional dimensions, such as centralization of wage bargaining, the employment protection index, and active labor market policies, are associated with variation in total fertility rates across countries and over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Observational Study Comparing Three Instruments in Malawi.","authors":"Julio Romero-Prieto, Boniface Dulani, Bruno Masquelier, Malebogo Tlhajoane, Stéphane Helleringer, Jethro Banda, Georges Reniers","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12559628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12559628","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Under-five mortality estimates for low- and middle-income countries are primarily derived from detailed birth or pregnancy histories collected through in-person household surveys. Such surveys are, however, resource intensive and vulnerable to interruption during epidemic outbreaks and other crises. Remotely deployed mobile phone surveys can circumvent these disadvantages, but their suitability for measuring population-level mortality has not been demonstrated. In this contribution, we examine Malawian mobile phone survey data from the Summary Birth Histories, Truncated Pregnancy Histories, and Full Pregnancy Histories instruments for estimating under-five mortality. Considering the limited penetration and the unequal distribution of mobile phones in Malawi, quota sampling was used to ensure representation of population subgroups where mobile phone ownership is low, and poststratification methods were applied to further attenuate selection bias. Resulting probabilities of dying, or q(x)-before 28 days, 12 months, and 60 months of life-are compared against external estimates from a recent Demographic and Health Survey, a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, and model-based estimates from the UN Inter-agency Group of Child Mortality Estimation. Mobile phone survey estimates using the Summary Birth Histories capture the historical trends of q(12m) and q(60m) up to 2018, but they are less reliable for the most recent years. Compared with external sources, estimates from the Truncated Pregnancy Histories appear to be biased downward. Estimates of q(28d), q(12m), and q(60m) from the Full Pregnancy Histories are in line with those published by the UN Inter-agency Group, but they are also suggestive of a mortality excess during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020‒2022. We conclude that mobile phone surveys are a promising method for collecting under-five mortality data, and particularly so via the Full Pregnancy Histories instrument.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accounting for Race Response Change in Population Projections: A Research Note.","authors":"Carolyn A Liebler","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12563735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12563735","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Demographers have struggled to make realistic population projections for some race groups. For example, the Census Bureau's 2023 national projection gives the unrealistically low estimate that the American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population will be 8.7 million in 2050 (it was measured at 9.7 million in 2020). I argue that this disconnect occurs because the cohort component model ignores an important component of change: race response change (whether due to complex identities or administrative processes). This research note introduces a strategy for incorporating net race response change into cohort component model projections. I apply the strategy to the racially identified AIAN population in the United States from 2020 to 2050, concluding that it may grow from 9.7 million in 2020 to 19.8 million in 2050.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13120718/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: Duration, Timing, and Educational Outcomes.","authors":"Christina Gibson-Davis, Lisa Keister, Lisa Gennetian, Shuyi Qiu","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12563780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12563780","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Net worth poverty (NWP) is the modal form of poverty for American children, but how it is experienced across childhood and its associations with human capital accumulation are unknown. Using data from the 1999‒2021 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a cohort of children followed from birth to age 20, this study measures NWP exposure and duration across the child's life course and relates NWP exposure and duration to high school graduation and college attendance. NWP refers to households whose wealth is less than one fourth of the federal poverty line. Findings show that through age 18, children experienced more frequent and enduring spells of net worth poverty than income poverty. NWP was negatively associated with high school graduation and college attendance independent of the effects of income poverty. Effects were larger for college attendance than for high school graduation, perhaps reflecting the resource-intensive nature of college. The negative effects of NWP were most pronounced for the 31% of the sample that experienced NWP in most waves. The timing of NWP relative to developmental stage did not seem to matter, as children were at risk regardless of the age at which they experienced it.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13120717/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Has Generational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans.","authors":"Kevin Corinth, Jeff Larrimore","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12555050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12555050","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Whether each generation of Americans continues to economically surpass the previous one has recently been called into question. We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36-40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147724175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nature's Curriculum: Genes Linked to Educational Attainment and Adult Socioeconomic Status Across Birth Cohorts in a Nordic Welfare State.","authors":"Henrik Dobewall, Maria Vaalavuo, Petri Böckerman, Jutta Viinikainen, Outi Sirniö, Katri Kantojärvi, Jaakko Pehkonen, Olli Raitakari, Terho Lehtimäki","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12550847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12550847","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent research has identified genes linked to educational attainment, but their effects on subsequent socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in egalitarian Nordic welfare states, remain largely unexplored. We analyze two genetically informed Finnish datasets, encompassing longitudinal register information on earnings, employment, unemployment, occupational status, and social assistance receipt (n = 31,622). We examine the role of a polygenic score for educational attainment (EA PGS), achieved level of education, and family socioeconomic background in predicting these outcomes in adulthood. We further study cohort differences around Finland's comprehensive school reform of the 1970s that aimed to promote equality of opportunity. Our results show that in the post-reform generation, EA PGS did not significantly predict adulthood outcomes after controlling for the achieved level of education. A notable exception was for occupational status. In contrast, in the pre-reform generation, EA PGS predicted later socioeconomic outcomes beyond education, indicating relationships not fully explained by schooling. Parental income did not moderate the effect of the EA PGS. Our findings shed additional light on the mechanisms connecting genetic factors and life chances, demonstrating that institutional setting and schooling can shape the influence of genetic endowment for high educational attainment in adult socioeconomic status.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147724196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impaired Cognitive and Behavioral Functioning in Childhood and Economic Outcomes in Adulthood.","authors":"Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Nancy E Reichman","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12543998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12543998","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Developmental disabilities are prevalent among U.S. children, child disability rates have been increasing, and the increases have been driven by cognitive and behavioral disorders. This study estimates the effects of low cognitive test scores and high behavior problem scores in childhood on educational attainment, employment, wages, and access to transportation and credit in adulthood. We assess cognitive and behavior scores at multiple time points during childhood and estimate cross-household and household fixed-effects models. We find that individuals with low cognitive scores in childhood are 10% less likely to graduate from high school, 23% less likely to be employed, 31% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and 18% less likely to have a credit card, and they have 51% lower earnings compared with individuals with higher cognitive scores. We also find that individuals with high behavior problem scores in childhood are 7% less likely to graduate from high school, 11% less likely to be employed, and 13% less likely to own a motor vehicle, and they have 14% lower earnings compared with those with lower behavior problem scores. The findings have important implications for well-being over the life course for a nontrivial share of the U.S. population as well as their families and communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147700392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infant Mortality Expectation and Fertility Behavior in Rural Malawi.","authors":"Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler, Ali Vergili","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12553282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12553282","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>For decades, population research has been interested in the complex relationship between child mortality and fertility, with a key focus on identifying hoarding behavior (i.e., fertility response to expected aggregate child mortality). Using unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health, we investigate the impact of individual-specific subjective expectations about infant mortality on fertility behavior. We instrument the potentially endogenous infant mortality expectations with the average of parents' ratings of children's health to address the potential for omitted variable bias, such as parental preference for health. Consistent with the hoarding mechanism, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in community-level child mortality expectations leads to a 14-percentage-point increase in the propensity to have a child in the next two years from a baseline propensity of 39%.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147700383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}