Demography最新文献

Declining Fertility, Human Capital Investment, and Economic Sustainability.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11858484

Mikko Myrskylä, Julia Hellstrand, Sampo Lappo, Angelo Lorenti, Jessica Nisén, Ziwei Rao, Heikki Tikanmäki

{"title":"Declining Fertility, Human Capital Investment, and Economic Sustainability.","authors":"Mikko Myrskylä, Julia Hellstrand, Sampo Lappo, Angelo Lorenti, Jessica Nisén, Ziwei Rao, Heikki Tikanmäki","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11858484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11858484","url":null,"abstract":"Future fertility is a key input when charting the sustainability of social security systems, and declining fertility is often expected to put pressure on economic indicators, such as pension burden. Such expectations are based on a narrow view of the impact of fertility on the economy, focusing on age structure. Dynamic impacts-for instance, the potential for increased human capital for smaller cohorts-are mostly ignored. We use a dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model to explore the extent to which investments in human capital could offset the adverse economic impact of low fertility. Our research context is Finland, the fastest aging European country and the site of dramatic fertility declines and stagnant educational levels in the 2020s. We find that an ambitious but simple human capital investment strategy that keeps the total investment constant despite declining cohort size, thereby increasing per capita investment, can offset the negative impact of a smaller labor force on the pension burden. Human capital investment not only reduces pension burden but also increases working years, pension income, retirement years, and longevity. Policies focusing on human capital investment are likely a viable strategy to maintain economic sustainability.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143732098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does Schooling Improve Cognitive Abilities at Older Ages? Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11865131

Vikesh Amin, Jere R Behrman, Jason M Fletcher, Carlos A Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hans-Peter Kohler

{"title":"Does Schooling Improve Cognitive Abilities at Older Ages? Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds.","authors":"Vikesh Amin, Jere R Behrman, Jason M Fletcher, Carlos A Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hans-Peter Kohler","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11865131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11865131","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit much-investigated relationships between schooling and health, focusing on schooling impacts on cognitive abilities at older ages using the Harmonized Cognition Assessment Protocol in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and a bounding approach that requires relatively weak assumptions. Our estimated upper bounds on the population average effects indicate potentially large causal effects of increasing schooling from primary to secondary. Yet, these upper bounds are smaller than many estimates from studies of causal schooling impacts on cognition using compulsory schooling laws. We also cannot rule out small and null effects at this margin. However, we find evidence for positive causal effects on cognition of increasing schooling from secondary to tertiary. We replicate findings from the HRS using data on older adults from the Midlife in United States Development Study Cognitive Project. We further explore possible mechanisms behind the schooling effect (e.g., health, socioeconomic status, occupation, and spousal schooling), finding suggestive evidence of effects through such mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143732229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social Fathering and Childlessness.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11873548

Axel Peter Kristensen, Trude Lappegård

引用次数: 0

A Research Note on Unconditional Cash Transfers and Fertility in the United States: New Causal Evidence.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11872728

Molly A Costanzo, Katherine A Magnuson, Greg J Duncan, Nathan Fox, Lisa A Gennetian, Sarah Halpern-Meekin, Kimberly G Noble, Hirokazu Yoshikawa

引用次数: 0

Paradox Between Immigrant Advantages in Morbidity and Mortality: Dynamic Patterns and Tentative Explanations.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11868456

Hui Zheng, Wei-Hsin Yu

{"title":"Paradox Between Immigrant Advantages in Morbidity and Mortality: Dynamic Patterns and Tentative Explanations.","authors":"Hui Zheng, Wei-Hsin Yu","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11868456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11868456","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research indicates that immigrants are more likely to experience chronic conditions and disabilities than natives at older ages, yet they continue to exhibit lower overall mortality, thus suggesting a morbidity-mortality paradox. We utilize the IPUMS National Health Interview Survey 2002-2018 with linked mortality data through 2019 (n = 405,270) to comprehensively investigate how this paradox unfolds with age for various groups of immigrants. The analysis shows that immigrants' advantages in chronic conditions and disabilities narrow or even disappear at old ages, whereas their mortality advantages continuously increase with age. These patterns exist for immigrants of different ethnoracial, sex, and educational groups. The decomposition analysis reveals that the narrowing disability gap is due to immigrants' increasing prevalence of mental illness and diabetes, shrinking advantages in lung diseases and musculoskeletal conditions, and increasing vulnerability to the disabling effects of major chronic conditions. However, immigrants are less likely to die from chronic diseases and disabilities, and this advantage strengthens with age, widening the nativity gap in mortality risk with age. We suggest that health-based selection might simultaneously postpone the onset of chronic diseases and disabilities to later ages for immigrants and better enable them to weather the mortality consequences of the diseases and disabilities.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143721737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Labor of Love: Immigrant-Native Intermarriage and Labor Force Outcomes Across European Union Member States.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11868529

Tristan Ivory, Chuling Adam Huang

{"title":"Labor of Love: Immigrant-Native Intermarriage and Labor Force Outcomes Across European Union Member States.","authors":"Tristan Ivory, Chuling Adam Huang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11868529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11868529","url":null,"abstract":"Immigrant-native intermarriage has been shown to improve immigrant labor force outcomes. A parallel line of research demonstrates that immigrant employment outcomes are strongly influenced by the sociopolitical climate and overall reception immigrants receive upon arrival in the host society. Our research spans both strands of literature to address unresolved questions about how the association between immigrant-native intermarriage and foreign-born occupational status changes across host societies on the basis of their national-level polices and views toward outsiders. To assess this, we analyze substantive changes in immigrant occupational attainment across twenty European Union countries from 2008 to 2018 using individual-level, cross-sectional data from the European Union Labor Force Survey on occupational attainment merged with country-level data from the European Social Survey on attitudes toward outsiders and the Migrant Integration Policy Index on integration policies. Our findings show that the association between intermarriage and immigrant occupation status is stronger in countries with more welcoming policies, whereas attitudes toward outsiders do not have a significant effect net of the moderating role of policy. The novel use of occupational status along with the moderating effect of policy provides further evidence that closed societies impede immigrant integration while deepening immigrant marginalization.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143721437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Deportation Boomerang? Evidence From U.S. Removals to Latin America and the Caribbean.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11863789

Christian Ambrosius, David A Leblang

{"title":"A Deportation Boomerang? Evidence From U.S. Removals to Latin America and the Caribbean.","authors":"Christian Ambrosius, David A Leblang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11863789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11863789","url":null,"abstract":"The forced return of migrants is an important part of migration policy toolkits. An increased risk of deportation, politicians argue, will deter subsequent irregular migration. We explore this argument for the case of forced removals from the United States and find that rather than operating as a deterrent for future migrants, this policy had a boomerang effect. The forced return of migrants with a track record of crime generated negative externalities in the form of higher violence in their countries of origin, counteracting the deterrence effect of higher deportation risk. We apply mediation analysis to a panel of Latin American and Caribbean countries and decompose the effect of deportations on emigration into three coefficients of interest: a total effect of deportations on later emigration, an effect of deportations on the mediator variable of violence, and an effect of violence on emigration. We address the endogeneity of our key explanatory variables-deportations and violence-using migrants' exposure to the unequal and staggered implementation of policies intended to facilitate deportations at the level of U.S. states as a source of exogenous variation. We show that migration intentions and asylum requests increase in response to deportation threats. This effect is mediated through increased violence and is strongly driven by dynamics in Central America. Although the total number of apprehensions at the U.S. southern border in response to deportation threats does not show a clear pattern, we observe an increase in the share of unaccompanied minors and the share of entire family units among those apprehended, suggesting a shift in migration strategies and composition.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143711644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mortality by Cause of Death in Brazil: A Research Note on the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Contribution to Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11862487

Fernando Fernandes, Cássio M Turra, Giovanny V A França, Marcia C Castro

{"title":"Mortality by Cause of Death in Brazil: A Research Note on the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Contribution to Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth.","authors":"Fernando Fernandes, Cássio M Turra, Giovanny V A França, Marcia C Castro","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11862487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11862487","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze and quantify the ways the COVID-19 pandemic affected other causes of death in Brazil in 2020 and 2021. We decompose age-standardized mortality rate time series for 2010-2021 into three additive components: trend, seasonal, and remainder. Given the long-term trend and historical seasonal variation, we assume that most of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be left in the remainder. We use a regression model to test this assumption. We decompose the contributions of COVID-19 deaths (direct effect) and those of other causes (indirect effects) to the annual change in life expectancy at birth (e0) from 2017 to 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic not only increased rates for other causes of death but also decreased rates for some causes. Broadly, the remainders mirror the COVID-19 pandemic waves. The direct effects of the pandemic reduced e0 by 1.88 years in 2019-2020 and by 1.77 in 2020-2021. Indirect effects increased e0 by 0.44 in 2019-2020 and had virtually no effect on e0 in 2020-2021. Whether the trajectories of mortality rates and annual gains in e0 will return to prepandemic levels and their interregional gradients depend on whether a nonnegligible number of patients who recovered from COVID-19 will suffer premature mortality.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143711645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Income Volatility and Parenting Styles During Hard Times.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11861157

Gabriele Mari

{"title":"Income Volatility and Parenting Styles During Hard Times.","authors":"Gabriele Mari","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11861157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11861157","url":null,"abstract":"Parenting styles are often the focus of interventions aimed at mitigating disparities in children's well-being. Although research has sought to establish parenting differences across income groups, the extent to which income itself drives such differences is disputed. Little attention has focused on income volatility, despite its secular rise and recent salience and the links between volatility and parenting drawn by theories across the social and developmental sciences. I investigate whether and how income volatility affects parenting styles using data from the 2009-2022 UK Household Longitudinal Study and an empirical approach that addresses measured and unmeasured common causes of volatility and parenting. Self-reports of parenting styles are differently associated with income instability across income groups. Mothers with higher but more unstable household and labor incomes report lower warmth. When households accumulate benefit income, reports of harsh or more permissive practices become more frequent among mothers with higher incomes and less frequent among those with lower incomes. Despite instability due to labor income losses, fathers with lower incomes report higher warmth in their interactions with their children, whereas fathers with higher incomes report the opposite. These findings suggest that theories, public debates, and policies could be retailored to address the role of income changes in family life.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143701817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11862998

Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha

{"title":"War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note.","authors":"Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11862998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11862998","url":null,"abstract":"In this research note, we used excess deaths among young males to estimate the number of Russian fatalities in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022-2023. We based our calculations on the official mortality statistics, split by age and sex. To separate excess deaths due to war from those due to COVID-19, we relied on the ratio of male to female deaths and extrapolated the 2015-2019 trend to get the baseline value for 2022-2023. We found noticeable excess male mortality in all age groups between 15 and 49, with 58,500 ± 2,500 excess male deaths in 2022-2023 (20,600 ± 1,400 in 2022 and 37,900 ± 1,500 in 2023). These estimates were obtained after excluding all HIV-related deaths that showed complex dynamics unrelated to the war. Depending on the modeling assumptions, the estimated number of deaths over the two years varied from about 46,600 to about 64,100, with 58,500 corresponding to our preferred model. Our estimate should be treated as a lower bound on the true number of deaths because the data do not include either the Russian military personnel missing in action and not officially declared dead or the deaths registered in the Ukrainian territories annexed in 2022.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143701849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0