Demography最新文献_第2页

Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Completed Cohort Fertility Projections? Insights From a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model Approach. 纳入胎次信息能提高完成队列生育预测的可靠性吗？贝叶斯广义加性模型方法的启示。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-13 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530362

Joanne Ellison, Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd

{"title":"Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Completed Cohort Fertility Projections? Insights From a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model Approach.","authors":"Joanne Ellison, Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12530362","url":null,"abstract":"Fertility projections inform population projections and are used to plan for the future provision of vital services such as maternity care and schooling. Existing fertility forecasting models tend to use aggregate births data indexed by age and time alone, thereby neglecting to include information about parity, that is, the number of previous live-born children. This omission risks ignoring a crucial mechanism of fertility dynamics. We propose a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model to complete cohort fertility, within a generalized additive model framework. The use of such models enables a smooth age‒cohort rate surface to be estimated for each parity simultaneously. We constrain our model using aggregate data and additionally introduce random walk priors on completed family size and parity progression ratios, which are summary fertility measures known to change relatively slowly over time. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and data from the Human Fertility Database, we fit our model to 16 countries. We compare our forecasts with the best-performing existing models to quantify the impact of including the parity dimension on predictive accuracy. Our findings indicate that a parity-specific approach could lead to more plausible and reliable fertility projections, aiding government planners in their decision-making and enabling more tailored policy solutions.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States. 解耦?2010年代美国婚姻与生育的持续相关性

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530630

Kristen Lagasse Burke

{"title":"Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States.","authors":"Kristen Lagasse Burke","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12530630","url":null,"abstract":"Prevailing theories of family change and the relevance of marriage in the United States hinge on the steady rise in births to unmarried women that unfolded during the latter half of the twentieth century and into the 2000s. This increase was concentrated among individuals with lower education levels, raising concern about inequality in children's family circumstances. Despite theoretical expectations that this trend would continue, the proportion of births to unmarried women plateaued during the 2010s. By examining trends in union formation and childbearing patterns by union status using data from the 2006‒2023 American Community Survey, this study investigates the ongoing link between marriage and childbearing underlying this plateau. Birth and marriage rates fell throughout the 2010s. However, in a reversal, married women became increasingly likely to have children relative to their unmarried peers, particularly among those with a high school education or less. These findings challenge theories about the changing social meaning of marriage, suggesting that norms regarding marriage remain robust rather than becoming deinstitutionalized. Furthermore, this study highlights how the declining marriage rate has contributed to the ongoing decline in the birth rate in the United States, implying that barriers to marriage may also create barriers to childbearing.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147640225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of Multiracial Marriage. 模糊婚姻市场？当代多种族婚姻模式。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530612

Aaron Gullickson, Jenifer Bratter

{"title":"Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of Multiracial Marriage.","authors":"Aaron Gullickson, Jenifer Bratter","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12530612","url":null,"abstract":"Research on interracial marriage has only begun to incorporate the growing mixed-race population. Using the 2010-2019 pooled American Community Survey, we explore the likelihood of a range of spousal pairings relative to racial endogamy for multiracial people while accounting for group size and controls for education, age, and immigration status. A distinguishing feature of marriage for multiracial individuals is the possibility of a partial overlap in racial identification-having one component race in common with one's partner. We find that exact racial endogamy for many multiracial individuals is relatively quite high, once we adjust for group size, and that partial endogamy through overlap increases the likelihood of a union. Furthermore, partial overlap in racial identification between multiracial and monoracial partners reveals the importance of racial classification regimes determining how multiracial individuals are treated in the marriage market. We find no evidence of a general affinity among multiracial individuals who do not share racial ancestry or that multiracial individuals' partner choices are less affected by race than the choices of monoracial individuals. These patterns have implications for the significance of established racial boundaries and the ongoing churning of racial categories, even as those categories become more ancestrally complex.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147634690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements in the United States Using Expected Years of Life: A Research Note. 用预期寿命计算美国170年生活安排的变化：一份研究报告。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12546633

Ginevra Floridi, Albert Esteve

{"title":"170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements in the United States Using Expected Years of Life: A Research Note.","authors":"Ginevra Floridi, Albert Esteve","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12546633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12546633","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 170 years, the United States has undergone demographic, structural, and cultural changes that are reflected in-and a reflection of-changes in living arrangements. In this research note, we link living arrangements and life expectancy to calculate expected life years spent across different living arrangements by sex for the U.S. population for the period 1850-2021. We decompose changes in this measure by age group and describe change across cohorts. We use harmonized data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples, classifying living arrangements into alone, with primary kin only (partners, parents, and children), and in extended households; more detailed subcategories include, for example, single-parent households and extended families. Three historical ages of U.S. living arrangements emerge: a \"large household\" system (1850-1940) characterized by relative stability in the extended household, when primary kin arrangements incorporate the majority of the substantial gains in life expectancy; an era of \"primary kin\" dominance (1940-1980) when life years spent only with primary kin increase faster than life expectancy, while the prevalence of extended households declines; and a \"diversified\" phase (1980-onward) characterized by a decline in two-parent households in favor of greater diversity, including living alone and with extended family.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147634595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock. 日本教育对婚姻和生育的因果影响：利用生肖迷信作为外生冲击的准实验方法研究笔记。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530548

Rong Fu, Senhu Wang, Yichen Shen, Haruko Noguchi

{"title":"Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock.","authors":"Rong Fu, Senhu Wang, Yichen Shen, Haruko Noguchi","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12530548","url":null,"abstract":"Despite extensive research on education's relationship with family formation, causal evidence remains limited, particularly for postsecondary education in East Asia. This research note provides novel causal evidence on education's effects on marriage and fertility among Japanese women by exploiting a unique quasi-experimental design based on the 1966 \"Firehorse\" zodiac superstition. We leverage the mismatch between Japanese school year and calendar year to identify women who benefited from reduced educational competition without being directly affected by the superstition. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive data on approximately 1.8 million women from multiple administrative sources, we examine the effect of increased educational opportunities across all education levels. Our findings reveal that higher education leads to modest delays in marriage and childbearing-effects that are smaller than previously documented-without increasing lifelong singlehood. Women with more education show higher labor force participation at marriage and marry slightly younger spouses while maintaining traditional marriage practices. These results suggest that education's direct effect on family formation is moderate and that institutional factors beyond education may deserve greater attention in understanding demographic trends in East Asia. Our findings contribute to debates about effective family policies in rapidly aging societies facing declining marriage and fertility rates.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147595447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ending Birthright Citizenship Would Have Disparate Impacts on U.S.-born Children of Asian and Latino Immigrants. 终止出生公民权将对亚裔和拉丁裔移民在美国出生的孩子产生不同的影响。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-03-31 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12530315

Jennifer Van Hook, A Nicole Kreisberg

{"title":"Ending Birthright Citizenship Would Have Disparate Impacts on U.S.-born Children of Asian and Latino Immigrants.","authors":"Jennifer Van Hook, A Nicole Kreisberg","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12530315","url":null,"abstract":"In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order that would redefine the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment by discontinuing birthright citizenship for future children born to certain noncitizen parents. Prior research estimates that ending birthright citizenship would increase the \"unauthorized,\" or otherwise precarious noncitizen, population by 2.5 million in one decade. We show that the largest absolute impact of ending birthright citizenship would affect Latinos, who would compose nearly 80% of \"unauthorized\" births in the short term and more than 90% of U.S.-born \"unauthorized\" people by 2050, expanding the projected size of the Latino unauthorized population by nearly 30%. This projected increase is attributable to the fact that Latinos currently make up the largest share of unauthorized immigrants. After accounting for population size, however, we show that the Asian population would experience the largest relative impact of ending birthright citizenship, especially in the near future. Specifically, we project 41 \"unauthorized\" births per 1,000 unauthorized Asians, compared with 17 \"unauthorized\" births per 1,000 among Latinos. This disparate relative impact on Asians stems from their much larger share of temporary nonimmigrant visa holders, whose U.S.-born children would be newly classified as \"unauthorized\" under the executive order. These disparate absolute and relative impacts on millions of children and their families deserve a fuller understanding of the associated societal implications.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147582811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cohort Differences in the Cumulative Risk of Criminalization in Texas. 德克萨斯州犯罪化累积风险的队列差异。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12458311

Lindsay Bing

{"title":"Cohort Differences in the Cumulative Risk of Criminalization in Texas.","authors":"Lindsay Bing","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12458311","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12458311","url":null,"abstract":"Studies estimating the cumulative risk of imprisonment have been central to documenting the rise of incarceration and its consequences for inequality in the United States. Data limitations have stymied efforts to document the risk of criminal legal contact falling short of imprisonment, however, and few studies estimate risks among groups other than Black and White men. Although less severe than imprisonment, subfelony contact also carries damaging and lifelong consequences. Using more than 25 years of administrative criminal record data from Texas, this study estimates the prevalence of both subfelony and felony arrest, prosecution, conviction, and incarceration across five cohorts of Black, White, and Hispanic men and women born between 1971 and 1995. Findings show that subfelony contact is 3‒18 times as prevalent, and far more widely distributed across the population, as felony conviction and incarceration: fewer than 3% of Black women go to prison by age 24, but at least 22% are arrested at least once. Although risks of felony events have fallen substantially for some groups, subfelony criminalization has persisted at high and increasingly unequal rates. These findings have implications for our understanding of the reach of the criminal legal system and its role in shaping inequality in the twenty-first century.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"163-186"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146150987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Cumulative Exposure to Exclusionary Zoning in Impoverished Neighborhoods. 贫困社区对排他性分区的累积暴露。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12468457

Matthew Mleczko

{"title":"The Cumulative Exposure to Exclusionary Zoning in Impoverished Neighborhoods.","authors":"Matthew Mleczko","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12468457","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12468457","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, I carry out dynamic modeling strategies to estimate the cumulative associations between exclusionary zoning and material hardship in impoverished neighborhoods. To do so, I create the largest nationwide panel zoning database to date by combining the National Zoning and Land Use Database covering the years 2019‒2022 with prior zoning and land use data from 2003‒2006. Accounting for posttreatment bias-the bias generated by including time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by past treatments in a longitudinal model-with marginal structural models, I demonstrate that exclusionary zoning is strongly associated with neighborhood disadvantage in impoverished neighborhoods, much more than would be uncovered using fixed effects or other modeling approaches. Exclusionary zoning is associated with higher median rents and higher shares of rent-burdened households in impoverished communities. Higher rents may be generated by higher housing prices as well as by a shortage of housing available to below-median income households throughout a metro area. These results suggest that exclusionary zoning policies may not only contribute to concentrated advantage in affluent areas but also have spillover effects that have negative long-run consequences for disadvantaged neighboring communities.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"213-239"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147327714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mothers and Maternal Grandmothers Kept Children Alive During Slavery: Evidence From the Surinamese Slave Registers, 1830-1863. 母亲和外祖母在奴隶制期间使孩子存活：苏里南奴隶登记的证据，1830-1863。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12446726

Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, Björn Quanjer, Kristina Thompson

{"title":"Mothers and Maternal Grandmothers Kept Children Alive During Slavery: Evidence From the Surinamese Slave Registers, 1830-1863.","authors":"Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, Björn Quanjer, Kristina Thompson","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12446726","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12446726","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have shown strong relationships between the presence of kin and children's survival outcomes in historical and contemporary low-income contexts. However, this relationship has never been studied among an enslaved population, who encountered extremely harsh living conditions. Examining this relationship among different populations may reveal similarities and differences across contexts. The present study addresses this gap by examining the life courses of children born between 1830 and 1863 and enslaved in Suriname (n = 19,095 children) and their mothers. For the period 1848‒1863, we can also observe matrilineal kin, including grandmothers, aunts, and uncles (n = 12,020 children). The relationships of matrilineal kin's presence and children's hazard of death from ages 6 months to 12 years were analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models. Experiencing maternal death was related to an increased hazard of death for children throughout childhood, but particularly during infancy (ages 6 months to 1 year; hazard ratio: 6.24, 95% confidence interval: 3.34‒11.66), and it decreased as children aged. The presence of grandmothers was related to a decreased hazard of death among children aged 1‒5, and the presence of aunts and uncles was beneficial to survival for children aged 5‒12. Mothers were especially important to children's survival, particularly during infancy, likely due to the importance of maternal care and breastfeeding on survival. During childhood, however, it appears that the presence of extended kin was also important, implying that children's care could have been provided by other family members once children were weaned. These findings closely align with those of other studies and reflect the importance of extended kin networks on childhood survival across time and space.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"111-136"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146126915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Antibiotic Pollution and Infant Mortality in India: A Research Note. 印度的抗生素污染和婴儿死亡率：一份研究报告。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12459254

Christelle Dumas, Ximena Játiva, Stefanie Baumgartner

引用次数: 0