Demography最新文献_第2页

The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change. 撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率转型：结构变革的作用》。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11587285

Nicolas Büttner, Michael Grimm, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen

{"title":"The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change.","authors":"Nicolas Büttner, Michael Grimm, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11587285","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11587285","url":null,"abstract":"Despite recent economic growth and reductions in child mortality in many African countries, the region has experienced a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the slow structural economic change on the continent can explain this discrepancy. We construct a unique panel dataset combining Demographic and Health Surveys and nighttime light intensity data (an indicator of industrialization) from 57 countries at the subnational region level over three decades to analyze the drivers of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female primary education are crucial for fertility declines. However, our analysis also highlights the importance of indicators of structural economic change, including the share of labor in nonagricultural occupations, industrialization, the share of women with higher education, and the formalization of the economy. Our simulations suggest that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent structural economic transformations comparable to those of other low- and middle-income countries with low fertility rates, their fertility levels could fall by 1 to 1.6 children.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1585-1611"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142337098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Data Portrait of Cisgender, Transgender, and Gender-Nonconforming Populations in the United States: A Research Note. 美国同性、变性和性别不符人群的数据画像：研究说明。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11569501

Lawrence Stacey

{"title":"A Data Portrait of Cisgender, Transgender, and Gender-Nonconforming Populations in the United States: A Research Note.","authors":"Lawrence Stacey","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11569501","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11569501","url":null,"abstract":"The transgender population is a critically underresearched population in the United States, owing to rare measures on national and state-level surveys that ask about sex and gender or transgender identification. Consequently, we know relatively less about the sociodemographic, socioeconomic, family, and health lives of gender minorities. In this research note, I use population-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to provide a data portrait of cisgender, transgender, and gender-nonconforming populations on a range of sociodemographic (e.g., sexual identity, race and ethnicity), socioeconomic (e.g., education, homeownership), family (e.g., union status), and health (e.g., number of poor mental health days) characteristics. Results reveal that gender minorities are younger than cisgender men and cisgender women and are disproportionately sexual minorities and people of color. Gender minority groups also experience lower socioeconomic status, report drastically different family lives, and bear the burden of worse health compared with cisgender people. I conclude by contending that descriptive research of this nature can illuminate compositional differences between cisgender and gender minority populations, provide rationales for adjusting for certain characteristics, and highlight potential explanatory mechanisms to make better sense of well-established findings (e.g., the transgender health disadvantage).","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1267-1282"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142298818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Eight Decades of Educational Assortative Mating: A Research Note. 教育同类交配八十年：研究说明。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11558914

Noah Hirschl,Christine R Schwartz,Elia Boschetti

引用次数: 0

Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Nonarranged Marriages Among Refugees. 代际权力转移与难民非协议婚姻的兴起。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11555087

Andrew D Foster,Merve Betül Gökçe,Murat Güray Kırdar

{"title":"Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Nonarranged Marriages Among Refugees.","authors":"Andrew D Foster,Merve Betül Gökçe,Murat Güray Kırdar","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11555087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11555087","url":null,"abstract":"The experiences of war and refugee status can alter intrafamily dynamics, with implications for family formation, including marriage. We use the nationally representative Syrian Migrant Sample of the 2018 Turkey Demographic Health Survey (TDHS-S) to conduct a duration analysis of marriage outcomes among Syrian refugees in Turkey, tracking women throughout their residence in prewar Syria (before the conflict began in 2011), postwar Syria (after the conflict began but before arrival in Turkey), and Turkey. We find that early marriage was more prominent among refugees who were unmarried at the time of migration than among those married before migration; the mean marriage age dropped from 19.6 in prewar Syria to 19.1 in postwar Syria and 18.1 in Turkey. Using the TDHS-S and prewar Syrian surveys, we show that this finding aligns with the observed declines in household income and young women's opportunity cost of marriage. Our duration analysis also reveals a notable shift from traditional arranged marriages to more modern marriage forms among refugees in Turkey. An intergenerational power shift might drive the shift toward nonarranged marriages. After arrival in Turkey, wealth and employment of parents decline among refugees. In contrast, Syrian youth in Turkey have higher age-adjusted employment rates than in prewar Syria. Moreover, nonarranged marriages increase more among demographic groups with stronger intergenerational power shifts than among groups with weaker shifts.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142262182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1920-2015. 1920-2015 年瑞典离婚的代际传递。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11550717

Maria Stanfors,Martin Bergvall

{"title":"Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1920-2015.","authors":"Maria Stanfors,Martin Bergvall","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11550717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11550717","url":null,"abstract":"Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce with a focus primarily on more recent decades; however, the extent to which this relationship is deeply rooted or has changed over time remains unclear. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and the stability of offspring's marriage. We use individual-level longitudinal data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database to estimate the intergenerational transmission of divorce among first marriages in Sweden over the period 1920-2015. Our investigation focuses on the correlation between parental divorce and offspring's divorce during the transition from a low- to a high-divorce regime. Findings reveal surprising stability in the transmission despite fundamental societal change over the years. Notably, the risk of divorce is highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. Moreover, the transmission of divorce across time appears to be stronger and more stable for women than for men. These results suggest the intergenerational transmission of divorce is part of the divorce transition and highlight the role of women's independence in this intricate but not yet fully understood process.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142262092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050. 2015-2050 年美国家庭结构的变化和护理差距的扩大。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11551558

Huijing Wu,Rachel Margolis,Ashton Verdery,Sarah E Patterson

{"title":"Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050.","authors":"Huijing Wu,Rachel Margolis,Ashton Verdery,Sarah E Patterson","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11551558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11551558","url":null,"abstract":"Research on caregiving in the United States has not clearly identified the scope of the gap between care needed and care received and the changes implied by ongoing and anticipated shifts in family structure. This article examines the magnitude of contemporary gaps in care among older adults in the United States and how they are likely to evolve through 2050. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014) to estimate care gaps, operationalized as having difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) but not receiving care. We also estimate variation in care gaps by family structure. Then, we use data from demographic microsimulation to explore the implications of demographic and family changes for the evolution of care gaps. We establish that care gaps are common, with 13% and 5% of adults aged 50 or older reporting a care gap for ADLs and IADLs, respectively. Next, we find that adults with neither partners nor children have the highest care gap rates. Last, we project that the number of older adults with care gaps will increase by more than 30% between 2015 and 2050-twice the rate of population growth. These results provide a benchmark for understanding the scope of the potential problem and considering how care gaps can be filled.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contextual Boundaries: Skin Tone Stratification and Skill Transferability Among Mexicans in the Age of Mass Migration. 语境边界：大规模移民时代墨西哥人的肤色分层和技能可转移性》（Contextual Boundaries: Skin Tone Stratification and Skill Transferability Among Mexicans in the Age of Mass Migration）。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11547756

Peter Catron,María Vignau Loría,Sarah Farr

{"title":"Contextual Boundaries: Skin Tone Stratification and Skill Transferability Among Mexicans in the Age of Mass Migration.","authors":"Peter Catron,María Vignau Loría,Sarah Farr","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11547756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11547756","url":null,"abstract":"An extensive literature has focused on the association between human, social, and economic capital and better immigrant economic attainment, and how these characteristics contribute to stratification among members of the same group. However, few studies have explored how racialization processes contribute to these within-group differences. We examine the role of intragroup differences in skin tone in stratifying outcomes among Mexican immigrants in the early twentieth century. We create a new dataset of 1910-1940 Mexican border-crossing records that we then link to the U.S. 1940 census. We use characteristics at entry to predict income in 1940 and find that-in line with dominant assimilation theories-standard measures of capital are associated with within-group attainment differences. However, we also find skin tone to be a source of within-group stratification: being perceived as having darker skin is associated with lower subsequent economic attainment than being perceived as having lighter skin. Furthermore, whereas human and social capital transcended context to allow migrants to transfer those skills anywhere, the effect of skin tone was significant only in Texas and not in other major receiving places like California. We argue that although standard measures of assimilation typically predict later outcomes, the stratifying effect of skin tone has long been a feature of Mexican immigration.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the Occupational Health Impact of Right-to-Work Laws: A Research Note. 重新审视工作权法对职业健康的影响：研究说明。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11556182

Emma Zang,Qinyou Hu,Zitong Wang

{"title":"Revisiting the Occupational Health Impact of Right-to-Work Laws: A Research Note.","authors":"Emma Zang,Qinyou Hu,Zitong Wang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11556182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11556182","url":null,"abstract":"This research note reevaluates the occupational health impact of right-to-work (RTW) legislation, incorporating recent developments in causal inference techniques. In an era marked by an uptick in the adoption of anti-union legislation and increases in workplace fatalities and injuries, it is particularly urgent to examine the extent to which RTW laws affect workers' health. Using a state-year-level dataset spanning 28 years and collected from multiple data sources, we apply an innovative generalized synthetic control method to overcome several limitations of the traditional two-way fixed-effects approach to examine the effect of RTW laws on occupational fatal injuries as well as various other health outcomes. Robustness checks were conducted using a wide range of alternative methods for two-way fixed-effects adjustments. In contrast with findings from previous studies, we found null effects on occupational fatal injuries, as well as on all other health outcomes. Overall, our results indicate that findings from previous studies are based on very thin empirical evidence, with potentially underestimated standard errors and unobserved confounders. Our results highlight the importance of revisiting research questions using updated methodological tools.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Distribution of Carceral Harm: County-Level Jail Incarceration and Mortality by Race, Sex, and Age. Carceral Harm 的分布：按种族、性别和年龄划分的县级监狱监禁和死亡率。

IF 3.5 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11555025

Anneliese N Luck

{"title":"The Distribution of Carceral Harm: County-Level Jail Incarceration and Mortality by Race, Sex, and Age.","authors":"Anneliese N Luck","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11555025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11555025","url":null,"abstract":"Jail incarceration remains an overlooked yet crucial component of the U.S. carceral system. Although a growing literature has examined the mortality costs associated with residing in areas with high levels of incarceration, far less is known about how local jails shape this burden at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In this study, I examine the relationship between county-level jail incarceration and age-specific mortality for non-Hispanic Black and White men and women, uniquely leveraging race-specific jail rates to account for the unequal racial distribution of jail exposures. This study finds evidence of positive associations between mortality and jail incarceration: this association peaks in late adulthood (ages 50-64), when increases in jail rates are associated with roughly 3% increases in mortality across all race-sex groups. However, patterns vary at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In particular, I find more marked and consistent penalties among women than among men. Additionally, a distinctly divergent age pattern emerges among Black men, who face insignificant but negative associations at younger ages but steep penalties at older ages-significantly larger among those aged 65 or older relative to their White male and Black female counterparts. Evidence further suggests that the use of race-neutral incarceration measures in prior work may mask the degree of harm associated with carceral contexts, because the jail rate for the total population underestimates the association between jail rates and mortality across nearly all race-age-sex combinations. These findings highlight the need for future ecological research to differentiate between jail and prison incarceration, consider the demographic distribution of incarceration's harms, and incorporate racialized measures of exposure so that we may better capture the magnitude of harm associated with America's carceral state.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142197819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Early-Life Disease Exposure and Its Heterogeneous Effects on Mortality Throughout Life: Sweden, 1905-2016. 早期疾病暴露及其对终生死亡率的异质性影响：瑞典，1905-2016 年。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11466677

Louise Cormack, Volha Lazuka, Luciana Quaranta

{"title":"Early-Life Disease Exposure and Its Heterogeneous Effects on Mortality Throughout Life: Sweden, 1905-2016.","authors":"Louise Cormack, Volha Lazuka, Luciana Quaranta","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11466677","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11466677","url":null,"abstract":"Exposure to infectious diseases in early life has been linked to increased mortality risk in later life in high-disease settings, such as eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe. Less is known about the long-term effects of early-life disease exposure in milder disease environments. This study estimates heterogeneous effects from disease exposure in infancy on later-life mortality in twentieth-century Sweden, by socioeconomic status at birth and sex. Using historical population data for southern Sweden, we study 11,515 individuals who were born in 1905-1929 from age 1 until age 85. We measure exposure to disease using the local post-early neonatal mortality rate in the first 12 months after birth and apply flexible parametric survival models. For females, we find a negative effect on life expectancy (scarring) at ages 1-85 following high disease exposure in infancy, particularly for those born to unskilled workers. For males, we find no negative effect on later-life survival, likely because stronger mortality selection in infancy outweighs scarring. Thus, even as the incidence of infectious diseases declined at the start of the twentieth century, early-life disease exposure generated long-lasting negative but heterogeneous population health effects.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1187-1210"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141628103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0