Demography最新文献_第2页

A Deportation Boomerang? Evidence From U.S. Removals to Latin America and the Caribbean.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11863789

Christian Ambrosius, David A Leblang

{"title":"A Deportation Boomerang? Evidence From U.S. Removals to Latin America and the Caribbean.","authors":"Christian Ambrosius, David A Leblang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11863789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11863789","url":null,"abstract":"The forced return of migrants is an important part of migration policy toolkits. An increased risk of deportation, politicians argue, will deter subsequent irregular migration. We explore this argument for the case of forced removals from the United States and find that rather than operating as a deterrent for future migrants, this policy had a boomerang effect. The forced return of migrants with a track record of crime generated negative externalities in the form of higher violence in their countries of origin, counteracting the deterrence effect of higher deportation risk. We apply mediation analysis to a panel of Latin American and Caribbean countries and decompose the effect of deportations on emigration into three coefficients of interest: a total effect of deportations on later emigration, an effect of deportations on the mediator variable of violence, and an effect of violence on emigration. We address the endogeneity of our key explanatory variables-deportations and violence-using migrants' exposure to the unequal and staggered implementation of policies intended to facilitate deportations at the level of U.S. states as a source of exogenous variation. We show that migration intentions and asylum requests increase in response to deportation threats. This effect is mediated through increased violence and is strongly driven by dynamics in Central America. Although the total number of apprehensions at the U.S. southern border in response to deportation threats does not show a clear pattern, we observe an increase in the share of unaccompanied minors and the share of entire family units among those apprehended, suggesting a shift in migration strategies and composition.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143711644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mortality by Cause of Death in Brazil: A Research Note on the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Contribution to Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11862487

Fernando Fernandes, Cássio M Turra, Giovanny V A França, Marcia C Castro

{"title":"Mortality by Cause of Death in Brazil: A Research Note on the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Contribution to Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth.","authors":"Fernando Fernandes, Cássio M Turra, Giovanny V A França, Marcia C Castro","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11862487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11862487","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze and quantify the ways the COVID-19 pandemic affected other causes of death in Brazil in 2020 and 2021. We decompose age-standardized mortality rate time series for 2010-2021 into three additive components: trend, seasonal, and remainder. Given the long-term trend and historical seasonal variation, we assume that most of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be left in the remainder. We use a regression model to test this assumption. We decompose the contributions of COVID-19 deaths (direct effect) and those of other causes (indirect effects) to the annual change in life expectancy at birth (e0) from 2017 to 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic not only increased rates for other causes of death but also decreased rates for some causes. Broadly, the remainders mirror the COVID-19 pandemic waves. The direct effects of the pandemic reduced e0 by 1.88 years in 2019-2020 and by 1.77 in 2020-2021. Indirect effects increased e0 by 0.44 in 2019-2020 and had virtually no effect on e0 in 2020-2021. Whether the trajectories of mortality rates and annual gains in e0 will return to prepandemic levels and their interregional gradients depend on whether a nonnegligible number of patients who recovered from COVID-19 will suffer premature mortality.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143711645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Income Volatility and Parenting Styles During Hard Times.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11861157

Gabriele Mari

{"title":"Income Volatility and Parenting Styles During Hard Times.","authors":"Gabriele Mari","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11861157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11861157","url":null,"abstract":"Parenting styles are often the focus of interventions aimed at mitigating disparities in children's well-being. Although research has sought to establish parenting differences across income groups, the extent to which income itself drives such differences is disputed. Little attention has focused on income volatility, despite its secular rise and recent salience and the links between volatility and parenting drawn by theories across the social and developmental sciences. I investigate whether and how income volatility affects parenting styles using data from the 2009-2022 UK Household Longitudinal Study and an empirical approach that addresses measured and unmeasured common causes of volatility and parenting. Self-reports of parenting styles are differently associated with income instability across income groups. Mothers with higher but more unstable household and labor incomes report lower warmth. When households accumulate benefit income, reports of harsh or more permissive practices become more frequent among mothers with higher incomes and less frequent among those with lower incomes. Despite instability due to labor income losses, fathers with lower incomes report higher warmth in their interactions with their children, whereas fathers with higher incomes report the opposite. These findings suggest that theories, public debates, and policies could be retailored to address the role of income changes in family life.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143701817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11862998

Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha

{"title":"War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note.","authors":"Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11862998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11862998","url":null,"abstract":"In this research note, we used excess deaths among young males to estimate the number of Russian fatalities in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022-2023. We based our calculations on the official mortality statistics, split by age and sex. To separate excess deaths due to war from those due to COVID-19, we relied on the ratio of male to female deaths and extrapolated the 2015-2019 trend to get the baseline value for 2022-2023. We found noticeable excess male mortality in all age groups between 15 and 49, with 58,500 ± 2,500 excess male deaths in 2022-2023 (20,600 ± 1,400 in 2022 and 37,900 ± 1,500 in 2023). These estimates were obtained after excluding all HIV-related deaths that showed complex dynamics unrelated to the war. Depending on the modeling assumptions, the estimated number of deaths over the two years varied from about 46,600 to about 64,100, with 58,500 corresponding to our preferred model. Our estimate should be treated as a lower bound on the true number of deaths because the data do not include either the Russian military personnel missing in action and not officially declared dead or the deaths registered in the Ukrainian territories annexed in 2022.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143701849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research Note: Does Despair in Young Adulthood Predict Mortality? 研究说明：年轻时的绝望会预测死亡率吗？

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11861195

Iliya Gutin, Lauren Gaydosh

{"title":"Research Note: Does Despair in Young Adulthood Predict Mortality?","authors":"Iliya Gutin, Lauren Gaydosh","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11861195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11861195","url":null,"abstract":"The trend of increasing U.S. working-age (25-64) mortality is well-documented. Yet, our understanding of its causes is incomplete, and analyses are often limited to using population data with little information on individual behaviors and characteristics. One characterization of this trend centers on the role of despair as a catalyst for self-destructive behaviors that ultimately manifest in mortality from suicide and substance use. The role of despair in predicting mortality at the individual level has received limited empirical interrogation. Using Cox proportional hazards models with behavioral risk factors and latent variable measures of despair in young adulthood (ages 24-32 in 2008-2009) as focal predictors, we estimate subsequent mortality risk through 2022 (298 deaths among 12,277 individuals; 177,628 person-years of exposure). We find that suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, illegal drug use, and prescription drug abuse in young adulthood predict all-cause, suicide, and drug poisoning mortality. Notably, all four domains of despair (cognitive, emotional, biosomatic, and behavioral) and overall despair predict all-cause mortality and mortality from drug poisoning and suicide. This research note provides new empirical evidence regarding the relationship between individual despair and mortality, improving our understanding of the life course contributors to working-age mortality.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143694182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Fall of Violence and the Reconfiguration of Urban Neighborhoods.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11841397

Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, Patrick Sharkey

{"title":"The Fall of Violence and the Reconfiguration of Urban Neighborhoods.","authors":"Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, Patrick Sharkey","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11841397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11841397","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past few decades, U.S. cities have changed dramatically, largely because of two major trends: the fall of violence and the rise of urban inequality. Despite the attention given to each of these trends, little research has assessed how they are related to each other. This study is the first to generate causal evidence on the impact of violent crime on economic residential segregation. We document the effect of the crime drop on economic segregation in 500 U.S. cities between 1990 and 2010, using exogenous shocks to city crime rates to identify causal effects. We find that declining violent and property crime reduced low-income household segregation but had no effect on affluent households. Our findings indicate that the crime decline has not overturned the trend toward rising economic segregation but has slowed its pace. Additional analyses suggest that declining crime reduced low-income household segregation by drawing more White and college-educated residents to the poorest neighborhoods of 1990. We also find suggestive evidence that declining violence led poor households to migrate out of low-income neighborhoods, reflecting a pattern of gentrification. Descriptive analyses of tract-level data from five cities show that neighborhoods with sharper declines in violence became less socioeconomically disadvantaged. Despite continued rising economic inequality, the crime decline has had its greatest impact on concentrated poverty, long seen as one of the most harmful dimensions of urban inequality.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143659158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Long Will You Be a Widow? Determinants, Trends, and Income Gradient in Widowhood Duration.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11846477

Julie Tréguier, Carole Bonnet, Didier Blanchet

{"title":"How Long Will You Be a Widow? Determinants, Trends, and Income Gradient in Widowhood Duration.","authors":"Julie Tréguier, Carole Bonnet, Didier Blanchet","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11846477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11846477","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding widowhood duration is essential for individuals and effective widow support policies, yet widowhood duration remains an understudied topic. In this article, we provide a quantitative estimation of the impact of three primary determinants of expected widowhood duration at age 60 in a unified framework: (1) the degree of overlap between male and female mortality distributions, (2) the spousal age gap, and (3) the dependence of spousal mortality. Using French life tables from 1962 to 2070 and simulations based on the Gompertz law and a bivariate Gaussian copula, we assess each determinant's relative influence. Our findings show that ignoring spousal mortality dependence overestimates widowhood duration by three years, whereas disregarding the spousal age gap underestimates it by one year. In France, expected widowhood duration at age 60 in 2020 was 10.4 years for females and 5.8 years for males. Despite converging gender life expectancies, our projections suggest that widowhood duration will remain high until 2070, at 9.2 years for females and 6.2 years for males. Notably, we identify a negative gradient in widowhood duration along the standard-of-living distribution.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143651420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Demography of Sweden's Transgender Population: A Research Note on Patterns, Changes, and Sociodemographics.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11850105

Martin Kolk, J Lucas Tilley, Emma von Essen, Ylva Moberg, Ian Burn

{"title":"The Demography of Sweden's Transgender Population: A Research Note on Patterns, Changes, and Sociodemographics.","authors":"Martin Kolk, J Lucas Tilley, Emma von Essen, Ylva Moberg, Ian Burn","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11850105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11850105","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the prevalence of gender transitions in Sweden over time and document the sociodemographic characteristics of people transitioning in different periods. Using administrative data covering the transgender population from 1973 through 2020, we analyze two common events in a gender transition: the earliest diagnosis of gender incongruence and the change of legal gender. Our research note presents three main findings. First, the measured prevalence rates of diagnoses and legal gender changes are relatively low in all periods, although they have increased substantially since the early 2010s. Second, the recent increase in transition prevalence is most pronounced among people in early adulthood; in particular, young transgender men drive an increase in overall transition rates through 2018, followed by moderate declines in 2019 and 2020. Third, transgender men and women have substantially lower socioeconomic outcomes than cisgender men and women, regardless of the age at which they transition or the historical period. They are also considerably less likely to be in a legal union or reside with children. These findings highlight the continued economic and social vulnerability of the transgender population.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143626515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trends in the Developmental Gradient in Mothers' Parenting Time by Maternal Education, 2003-2019.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11774972

Melody Ge Gao

引用次数: 0

Prenatal Care, Son Preference, and the Sex Ratio at Birth.

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11798263

Rebeca Echavarri, Francisco Beltrán Tapia

引用次数: 0