Demography最新文献_第3页

How Long Will You Be a Widow? Determinants, Trends, and Income Gradient in Widowhood Duration. 你要做多久的寡妇？丧偶持续时间的决定因素、趋势和收入梯度。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11846477

Julie Tréguier, Carole Bonnet, Didier Blanchet

{"title":"How Long Will You Be a Widow? Determinants, Trends, and Income Gradient in Widowhood Duration.","authors":"Julie Tréguier, Carole Bonnet, Didier Blanchet","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11846477","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11846477","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding widowhood duration is essential for individuals and effective widow support policies, yet widowhood duration remains an understudied topic. In this article, we provide a quantitative estimation of the impact of three primary determinants of expected widowhood duration at age 60 in a unified framework: (1) the degree of overlap between male and female mortality distributions, (2) the spousal age gap, and (3) the dependence of spousal mortality. Using French life tables from 1962 to 2070 and simulations based on the Gompertz law and a bivariate Gaussian copula, we assess each determinant's relative influence. Our findings show that ignoring spousal mortality dependence overestimates widowhood duration by three years, whereas disregarding the spousal age gap underestimates it by one year. In France, expected widowhood duration at age 60 in 2020 was 10.4 years for females and 5.8 years for males. Despite converging gender life expectancies, our projections suggest that widowhood duration will remain high until 2070, at 9.2 years for females and 6.2 years for males. Notably, we identify a negative gradient in widowhood duration along the standard-of-living distribution.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"467-488"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143651420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note. 俄罗斯2022-2023年战争死亡人数通过男性死亡率估算：一份研究报告。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11862998

Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha

{"title":"War Fatalities in Russia in 2022-2023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note.","authors":"Dmitry Kobak, Alexey Bessudnov, Alexander Ershov, Tatiana Mikhailova, Alexey Raksha","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11862998","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11862998","url":null,"abstract":"In this research note, we used excess deaths among young males to estimate the number of Russian fatalities in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022-2023. We based our calculations on the official mortality statistics, split by age and sex. To separate excess deaths due to war from those due to COVID-19, we relied on the ratio of male to female deaths and extrapolated the 2015-2019 trend to get the baseline value for 2022-2023. We found noticeable excess male mortality in all age groups between 15 and 49, with 58,500 ± 2,500 excess male deaths in 2022-2023 (20,600 ± 1,400 in 2022 and 37,900 ± 1,500 in 2023). These estimates were obtained after excluding all HIV-related deaths that showed complex dynamics unrelated to the war. Depending on the modeling assumptions, the estimated number of deaths over the two years varied from about 46,600 to about 64,100, with 58,500 corresponding to our preferred model. Our estimate should be treated as a lower bound on the true number of deaths because the data do not include either the Russian military personnel missing in action and not officially declared dead or the deaths registered in the Ukrainian territories annexed in 2022.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"335-347"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143701849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contraceptive Use and Discontinuation Among Adolescent Women in 55 Low- and Middle-Income Countries. 55个低收入和中等收入国家青少年妇女避孕药具使用和停药情况。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11876504

Clara E Busse, Katherine Tumlinson, Leigh Senderowicz

{"title":"Contraceptive Use and Discontinuation Among Adolescent Women in 55 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.","authors":"Clara E Busse, Katherine Tumlinson, Leigh Senderowicz","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11876504","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11876504","url":null,"abstract":"Adolescent women aged 19 or younger make up a substantial and growing proportion of women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries. Several key features of the reproductive life course ground the need to disaggregate the contraceptive behaviors of adolescent women from those of older women, including relationship dynamics, resources and autonomy, and cultural and societal expectations regarding sexual activity and childbearing. Despite the importance and unique life course features of adolescent women, we lack the information about their contraceptive dynamics-especially their patterns of contraceptive discontinuation-needed to direct improvements to family planning programs for this oft-neglected group. We use Demographic and Health Surveys from 55 countries to describe contraceptive dynamics among adolescent women, comparing them with trends among women aged 20-49. We find that adolescent women tended to use reversible, short-acting methods, whereas those later in the reproductive life course tended to use long-acting methods and female sterilization. Across all regions, 12-month all-method discontinuation rates among those who discontinued their method while not wanting to get pregnant ranged from 16.7 to 34.2 discontinuations per person-month for adolescent women and from 12.0 to 28.8 discontinuations per person-month for older women. Side effects and health concerns were a leading discontinuation reason for both age groups in most regions, and infrequent sex and desire to become pregnant were more frequent discontinuation reasons for adolescent women in most regions. Not since 2009 have scholars compared contraceptive discontinuation rates across multiple countries and disaggregated by age. Furthermore, no prior publication has compared specific reasons for discontinuation between adolescent and older women. Understanding the distinct contraceptive dynamics of those earliest in their reproductive life course can help direct policy and programmatic interventions.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"657-686"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143774529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social Fathering and Childlessness. 社会父权与无子女。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11873548

Axel Peter Kristensen, Trude Lappegård

引用次数: 0

Does Schooling Improve Cognitive Abilities at Older Ages? Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds. 上学能提高老年人的认知能力吗？非参数界的因果证据。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11865131

Vikesh Amin, Jere R Behrman, Jason M Fletcher, Carlos A Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hans-Peter Kohler

{"title":"Does Schooling Improve Cognitive Abilities at Older Ages? Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds.","authors":"Vikesh Amin, Jere R Behrman, Jason M Fletcher, Carlos A Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hans-Peter Kohler","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11865131","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11865131","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit much-investigated relationships between schooling and health, focusing on schooling impacts on cognitive abilities at older ages using the Harmonized Cognition Assessment Protocol in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and a bounding approach that requires relatively weak assumptions. Our estimated upper bounds on the population average effects indicate potentially large causal effects of increasing schooling from primary to secondary. Yet, these upper bounds are smaller than many estimates from studies of causal schooling impacts on cognition using compulsory schooling laws. We also cannot rule out small and null effects at this margin. However, we find evidence for positive causal effects on cognition of increasing schooling from secondary to tertiary. We replicate findings from the HRS using data on older adults from the Midlife in United States Development Study Cognitive Project. We further explore possible mechanisms behind the schooling effect (e.g., health, socioeconomic status, occupation, and spousal schooling), finding suggestive evidence of effects through such mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"515-541"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143732229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research Note: Does Despair in Young Adulthood Predict Mortality? 研究说明：年轻时的绝望会预测死亡率吗？

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11861195

Iliya Gutin, Lauren Gaydosh

{"title":"Research Note: Does Despair in Young Adulthood Predict Mortality?","authors":"Iliya Gutin, Lauren Gaydosh","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11861195","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11861195","url":null,"abstract":"The trend of increasing U.S. working-age (25-64) mortality is well-documented. Yet, our understanding of its causes is incomplete, and analyses are often limited to using population data with little information on individual behaviors and characteristics. One characterization of this trend centers on the role of despair as a catalyst for self-destructive behaviors that ultimately manifest in mortality from suicide and substance use. The role of despair in predicting mortality at the individual level has received limited empirical interrogation. Using Cox proportional hazards models with behavioral risk factors and latent variable measures of despair in young adulthood (ages 24-32 in 2008-2009) as focal predictors, we estimate subsequent mortality risk through 2022 (298 deaths among 12,277 individuals; 177,628 person-years of exposure). We find that suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, illegal drug use, and prescription drug abuse in young adulthood predict all-cause, suicide, and drug poisoning mortality. Notably, all four domains of despair (cognitive, emotional, biosomatic, and behavioral) and overall despair predict all-cause mortality and mortality from drug poisoning and suicide. This research note provides new empirical evidence regarding the relationship between individual despair and mortality, improving our understanding of the life course contributors to working-age mortality.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"365-379"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143694182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Research Note on Unconditional Cash Transfers and Fertility in the United States: New Causal Evidence. 无条件现金转移与美国生育率的研究报告：新的因果证据。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11872728

Molly A Costanzo, Katherine A Magnuson, Greg J Duncan, Nathan Fox, Lisa A Gennetian, Sarah Halpern-Meekin, Kimberly G Noble, Hirokazu Yoshikawa

引用次数: 0

Government Restrictions During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Depressive Symptoms Following Widowhood. COVID-19 大流行期间的政府限制与丧偶后的抑郁症状。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11790737

Zachary Van Winkle, Bartholomew Konechni

{"title":"Government Restrictions During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Depressive Symptoms Following Widowhood.","authors":"Zachary Van Winkle, Bartholomew Konechni","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11790737","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11790737","url":null,"abstract":"Spousal loss is associated with an immediate increase in depressive symptoms. However, the consequences of widowhood for symptoms of depression during the COVID-19 pandemic have remained largely unexplored. In this study, we use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and fixed-effects regression modeling to address three research questions. First, how have depressive symptoms changed over time in 10 European countries for older adults by marital status and spousal death timing? Second, do the surviving spouses of persons who died during the pandemic face greater increases in depressive symptoms compared with adults widowed before the pandemic? Third, to what extent did the strictness of government restrictions moderate the pandemic widowhood penalty for symptoms of depression? We find that depressive symptoms increased dramatically for those widowed during the pandemic compared with widowed adults before the pandemic. In addition, the pandemic widowhood penalty does not apply to all those who lost their partners during the pandemic; it applies only to those who lost their partner when governments were enforcing stay-at-home orders. Our findings support the notion that the COVID-19 pandemic and stringent government restrictions exacerbated risk factors and hindered protective factors that affect older adults' resilience to spousal death.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"137-158"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143190939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trends in the Developmental Gradient in Mothers' Parenting Time by Maternal Education, 2003-2019. 2003-2019年不同教育程度母亲育儿时间发展梯度变化趋势

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11774972

Melody Ge Gao

引用次数: 0

Smoke's Enduring Legacy: Bridging Early-Life Smoking Exposures and Later-Life Epigenetic Age Acceleration. 烟雾的永久遗产：早期吸烟暴露与晚年表观遗传年龄加速之间的联系。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11790645

Daniel Ramirez, Elena Povedano, Aitor García, Michael Lund

{"title":"Smoke's Enduring Legacy: Bridging Early-Life Smoking Exposures and Later-Life Epigenetic Age Acceleration.","authors":"Daniel Ramirez, Elena Povedano, Aitor García, Michael Lund","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11790645","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-11790645","url":null,"abstract":"Current literature states that early-life exposure to smoking produces adverse health outcomes in later life, primarily as a result of subsequent engagements with firsthand smoking. The implications of prior research are that smoking cessation can reduce health risk in later life to levels comparable to the risk of those who have never smoked. However, recent evidence suggests that smoking exposure during childhood can have independent and permanent negative effects on health-in particular, on epigenetic aging. This investigation examines whether the effect of early-life firsthand smoking on epigenetic aging is more consistent with (1) a sensitive periods model, which is characterized by independent effects due to early firsthand exposures; or (2) a cumulative risks model, which is typified by persistent smoking. The findings support both models. Smoking during childhood can have long-lasting effects on epigenetic aging, regardless of subsequent engagements. Our evidence suggests that adult cessation can be effective but that the epigenetic age acceleration in later life is largely due to early firsthand smoking itself.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"113-135"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143190940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0