Demography最新文献_第3页

A Profile of Great-Grandparenthood in the United States: A Research Note. 美国曾祖父母的概况：一份研究报告。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12446545

Rachel Margolis, Ashton M Verdery

{"title":"A Profile of Great-Grandparenthood in the United States: A Research Note.","authors":"Rachel Margolis, Ashton M Verdery","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12446545","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12446545","url":null,"abstract":"Great-grandparents are key figures in the transmission of family history and values. Despite their recognized importance, there is scant population-based research estimating the prevalence of great-grandparents in the contemporary United States. This research note uses the most recently available nationally representative survey data to characterize great-grandparenthood in the United States from 1996 until 2012, when the Health and Retirement Study ceased asking harmonizable great-grandparenthood questions. The prevalence of great-grandparenthood increases steadily with age, from 11% of 60‒64-year-olds, to just over half at ages 80‒84, to about two thirds of those 90 or older. There has been surprising little change over the cohorts prior to the baby boom, but cohorts born after 1942 have lower rates of great-grandparenthood in their 50s and early 60s. Great-grandparenthood is somewhat more prevalent among women than men and is strongly patterned by educational attainment, with distinct patterns and levels for those with and without a college degree. Finally, we estimate that the number of great-grandparents in the United States has increased from 15.3 million in 1996 to 20.4 million in 2012, highlighting a 33% increase. This increase is due to population aging, coming despite slight declines in the proportion of individuals over 50 with great-grandchildren.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"97-109"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146114302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Earnings Assimilation of Unauthorized Immigrants. 非法移民的收入同化。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12470095

Andrés Villarreal, Christopher R Tamborini

{"title":"The Earnings Assimilation of Unauthorized Immigrants.","authors":"Andrés Villarreal, Christopher R Tamborini","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12470095","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12470095","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the earnings assimilation of unauthorized Hispanic immigrants using an innovative strategy to estimate which individuals may lack legal work authorization. Our strategy relies on restricted-use data linking respondents of the Current Population Survey to Social Security records. A successful match with Social Security records, along with survey information, is used as evidence that an immigrant is authorized. Using a successful match with Social Security records allows us to rule out as being unauthorized half of all individuals otherwise classified as unauthorized. Our results indicate that unauthorized immigrant men have significantly lower earnings than authorized immigrant men over the first 15 years since arrival. However, despite facing additional obstacles, immigrants without work authorization make the same amount of progress in catching up with the earnings of native Whites. Unauthorized immigrant women have similar earnings as women with work authorization for much of their careers. Overall, we find a pattern of persistent inequality whereby both authorized and unauthorized Hispanic immigrants make modest progress catching up with natives' earnings. We test alternative explanations for the observed pattern in earnings trajectories and find that the occupation and industry in which immigrants are employed, along with the number of hours worked, appear to explain a large part of the disparity relative to native Whites.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"137-162"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146183018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment and Attainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway. 更多的教育和更少的孩子？挪威教育入学率和学历对生育率下降的贡献。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12475875

Kathryn Christine Beck, Julia Hellstrand, Mikko Myrskylä

{"title":"More Education and Fewer Children? The Contribution of Educational Enrollment and Attainment to the Fertility Decline in Norway.","authors":"Kathryn Christine Beck, Julia Hellstrand, Mikko Myrskylä","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12475875","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12475875","url":null,"abstract":"Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. Although there is a clear education‒fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it is unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrollment, educational attainment, and childbearing for men and women born in 1964‒2006. Using a counterfactual simulation approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility within educational groups to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11 to 1.98 children) for 1964‒1978 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts. The predicted decline thereafter (to 1.59 children by the 1992 cohort), as well as the 2010s period fertility decline, was fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and did not contribute to fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the low and medium educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education is not the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, falling birth rates, particularly among lower educated groups, are driving the fertility decline for both genders.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"323-349"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146221931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Social Context of Spatial Choice: Activity Locations and Residential Segregation. 空间选择的社会背景：活动地点和居住隔离。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12475908

Liang Cai, Christopher Browning, Luc Anselin

{"title":"The Social Context of Spatial Choice: Activity Locations and Residential Segregation.","authors":"Liang Cai, Christopher Browning, Luc Anselin","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12475908","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12475908","url":null,"abstract":"Despite considerable focus on clustering as a dimension of segregation and the explosion of big location data, the extant literature has not explicitly examined residential racial segregation and the clustering of racially segregated space as an influence on mobility. Drawing on urban sociological theories, we test criteria contributing to individuals' selection of key activity neighborhoods. Using a range of spatial data sources, we compare White and Black individuals' choice of frequently visited neighborhoods in Chicago, stratified by whether residing in a contiguous segregated cluster (CSC). Discrete choice models show evidence for the impact of clustered residential segregation in individual decision-making. Net of distance, all groups are drawn to White CSC neighborhoods. White residents exhibit a pattern of geographic isolation, gravitating toward White CSC tracts and away from Black spaces, CSC and non-CSC alike. Black residents of Black CSC neighborhoods are more likely to have activity locations in White CSC neighborhoods than their own residential CSC, largely because of the relative institutional, amenity, and crime-related advantages of these areas. Results are robust to alternative specifications of choice sets and institutional deficits. Implications for understanding the social context of routine location choice and designing desegregation policies through behavioral \"nudges\" are discussed.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"263-290"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147272629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond Income: Health, Wealth, and Racial Welfare Gaps Among Older Americans. 超越收入：美国老年人的健康、财富和种族福利差距。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12460649

Sayorn Chin, Ray Miller

引用次数: 0

Research Note: Texas's Operation Lone Star Migrant Busing Program Increased Hispanic Homelessness in Destination Cities. 研究说明：德克萨斯州的孤星行动移民巴士计划增加了目的地城市的西班牙裔无家可归者。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12440694

William Scarborough, Cynthia Brito, Aïsha Lehmann, Iván Arenas, Amanda Lewis

{"title":"Research Note: Texas's Operation Lone Star Migrant Busing Program Increased Hispanic Homelessness in Destination Cities.","authors":"William Scarborough, Cynthia Brito, Aïsha Lehmann, Iván Arenas, Amanda Lewis","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12440694","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12440694","url":null,"abstract":"As part of the largest and most expensive state-run immigration program in U.S. history, the state of Texas bused more than 100,000 immigrants to six Democratic-led cities with sanctuary ordinances between 2022 and 2024. In this research note, we examine whether the Texas migrant busing program led to an increase in Hispanic homelessness in cities that received buses chartered by the state. Using point-in-time data measuring local homeless populations from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and administrative data from the Office of the Texas Governor to identify busing destinations, we apply a series of fixed-effects individual slope models to estimate the impact of Texas's busing program on local rates of Hispanic homelessness. We find that the busing program led to an annual increase of 36% in Hispanic homelessness in destination cities relative to prebusing trends. These results are robust to counterfactuals showing that the busing program had no impact on non-Hispanic homelessness, consistent with the predominantly Hispanic composition of bused migrants. Our findings underscore the detrimental impact of the Texas busing program on Hispanic homelessness and offer policy solutions to mitigate its effects.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"15-28"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146086810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Research Note on Loneliness as a Driver of International Migration: Prospective Evidence From the Netherlands. 孤独作为国际移民驱动因素的研究纪要：来自荷兰的前瞻性证据。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12424049

Thijs van den Broek

{"title":"A Research Note on Loneliness as a Driver of International Migration: Prospective Evidence From the Netherlands.","authors":"Thijs van den Broek","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12424049","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12424049","url":null,"abstract":"The well-established finding that migrants tend to be lonelier than their counterparts without a migration background in the country of settlement is typically ascribed to challenges that come with international migration. This study's point of departure is that migrants' high levels of loneliness may, in part, also reflect what could be called a \"lonely migrant effect,\" that is, selection of lonely people into international migration. Selection of this kind was assessed using the 2012 and 2016 rounds of the Dutch Public Health Monitor (n = 685,088), enriched with administrative data on emigration in the three years following survey data collection. Overall, 2,401 respondents emigrated from the Netherlands in this period. Emigration was regressed on respondents' baseline loneliness scores in logistic regression models adjusted for various potential confounders. Results indicate that people who were lonely, as indicated by a 3+ score on the De Jong Gierveld loneliness scale, were approximately 1.27 times as likely as their nonlonely peers to emigrate in the observed period. No significant differences were found between people who were moderately lonely and people who were severely lonely. These findings suggest that elevated loneliness among migrants may partly reflect preexisting loneliness and should be interpreted with this selection effect in mind.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145953701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Research Note on the Demographic Potential of Polygyny: Evaluating an Age-Related Summary Indicator. 关于一夫多妻制的人口潜力的研究说明：评估与年龄有关的摘要指标。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12459078

Luca Maria Pesando

{"title":"A Research Note on the Demographic Potential of Polygyny: Evaluating an Age-Related Summary Indicator.","authors":"Luca Maria Pesando","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12459078","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12459078","url":null,"abstract":"This research note discusses one underexplored aspect of the study of polygyny, namely, the extent to which the practice remains viable from a purely demographic standpoint. Using data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 covering 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), I evaluate a simple indicator-gamma-for capturing the \"demographic potential\" of polygyny, that is, the fraction of men who can have two wives with no other man pushed out of the marriage market. I estimate how this indicator has evolved between 1950 and 2021 across regions of SSA and show how the measure correlates with polygyny estimates from available men's and women's Demographic and Health Surveys. Gamma shows inverted U-curve patterns aligned with stages of the demographic transition, from modestly low levels to high levels during periods of rapid population growth and then declining again. Recent declines are starkest in South SSA, while potential remains moderate elsewhere. Gamma correlates positively with polygyny estimates from Demographic and Health Surveys-particularly in Central and South SSA-and can explain up to 50‒70% variation in polygyny, albeit not everywhere. Findings primarily hold within regions, suggesting this is one of manifold factors at play. I conclude by outlining fruitful directions for the study of polygyny.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"61-78"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146126949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity: Insights From the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. 预测个人寿命的极限：来自美国健康和退休研究的见解。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12464628

Luca Badolato, Ari Decter-Frain, Nicholas J Irons, Maria L Miranda, Erin Walk, Elnura Zhalieva, Monica Alexander, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni

{"title":"The Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity: Insights From the U.S. Health and Retirement Study.","authors":"Luca Badolato, Ari Decter-Frain, Nicholas J Irons, Maria L Miranda, Erin Walk, Elnura Zhalieva, Monica Alexander, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12464628","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12464628","url":null,"abstract":"Individual-level mortality prediction is a fundamental challenge with implications for life planning, health care, social policies, and public spending. Drawing from the growing body of research on the predictability of life course events, we model and predict individual-level lifespan using 12 statistical and machine learning models and more than 150 predictors derived from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study longitudinal data. Statistical and machine learning models report comparable accuracy and relatively high discriminative performance, but they fail to account for most lifespan heterogeneity at the individual level. We observe consistent inequalities in mortality predictability and risk discrimination, with lower accuracy for men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and low-educated individuals. Additionally, people in these groups show lower accuracy in their subjective predictions of their own lifespan. Finally, top features across groups are similar, with variables related to habits, health history, and finances being relevant predictors. We conclude by highlighting the limits of predicting mortality from one of the richest longitudinal representative surveys in the United States, as well as the context-dependent inequalities across sociodemographic groups, and providing baselines and guidance for future research and public policies.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"351-374"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146158670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond Lifelong Marriage and Spousal Coresidence: A Research Note on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Late-Life Family and Living Arrangements. 超越终身婚姻和配偶共同居住：关于晚年家庭和生活安排的种族和民族差异的研究笔记。

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Demography Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-12458349

Xueqing Wang, Xuezhixing Zhang, Emma Zang

{"title":"Beyond Lifelong Marriage and Spousal Coresidence: A Research Note on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Late-Life Family and Living Arrangements.","authors":"Xueqing Wang, Xuezhixing Zhang, Emma Zang","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12458349","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12458349","url":null,"abstract":"We employ an innovative Bayesian multistate life table approach to examine how race, ethnicity, and sex shape marital status and living arrangements in later life. Using the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2018), we estimate expected years spent in various marital and living arrangements after age 50. Our findings reveal stark disparities: White adults largely follow traditional patterns, spending most of their later years married and living with a spouse. In contrast, Black adults experience the shortest durations of marriage and spousal coresidence, spending much of later life alone or with nonspouse family members. Hispanic adults occupy an intermediate position, maintaining substantial years in marriage while also spending extended time in multigenerational households. These patterns are further stratified by sex, with minority females experiencing significantly fewer years married and living with a spouse than males, amplifying their reliance on alternative family support structures. These findings highlight how the intersection of race, ethnicity, and sex shapes later life social and economic security, emphasizing the need for policies that account for diverse family structures in aging populations.","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"29-43"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146150975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0