Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries.

IF 3.6 1区社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY

Demography Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI:10.1215/00703370-11463595

Gordey Yastrebov, Vanessa Wittemann

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.

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重建 12 个国家的预期代际教育流动性。

在本文中，我们重建了 12 个欧洲国家 1925 年至 1950 年间出生的女性的前瞻性代际教育流动性，并探讨了生育率在这一过程中的作用。为此，我们将高质量的回顾性数据（世代与性别调查）和低要求的前瞻性数据集结合起来，并采用了一种在先前研究中开发和推进的推论方法。我们的分析表明，教育生育率的负梯度在一定程度上弥补了受教育程度较高和较低的女性之间未来流动率的不平等，并且在教育质量较高的情况下最为明显。然而，生育率的作用很小，而且在不断下降，因此并不能解释国家间流动率的大部分差异。我们还探讨了兄弟姐妹规模效应在调解生育率梯度效应方面的相对重要性，发现其作用微乎其微。最后，我们探讨了在重建前瞻性流动率时前瞻性估计与回顾性估计之间的对应关系，并提出了为什么在有前瞻性估计的情况下必须首选前瞻性估计的原因。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Demography DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

2.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Since its founding in 1964, the journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard and wide impact of the field on which it reports. Demography presents the highest quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena spanning the ages from the past to the present, and reaching toward the future. Authors whose work is published in Demography benefit from the wide audience of population scientists their research will reach. Also in 2011 Demography remains the most cited journal among population studies and demographic periodicals. Published bimonthly, Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America, reaching the membership of one of the largest professional demographic associations in the world.