Demography最新文献

{"title":"Varieties of Capitalism and Cross-national Variation in Fertility Rates.","authors":"Masoud Movahed, Emilio A Parrado","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12563895","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12563895","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The institutional approach to explaining cross-national variation in demographic outcomes has gained increasing visibility in both academic research and public policy discourse. In this vein, much of the literature has focused on the effects of welfare programs on risk management and the associated costs of fertility. However, an alternative, more comprehensive perspective, namely, the \"varieties of capitalism,\" emphasizes the role of broader social-structural and institutional characteristics of national economies in generating socioeconomic outcomes. This perspective has not been extended to debates around cross-national differences in demographic outcomes. We fill this void by elaborating on a varieties of capitalism account of cross-national and longitudinal variation in fertility rates. Drawing on panel data spanning more than three decades (1985‒2019) across 21 countries in the Global North, we investigate how institutional factors, through the lens of the varieties of capitalism perspective, correlate with differences in total fertility rates between countries and over time. Our results demonstrate that crucial institutional dimensions, such as centralization of wage bargaining, the employment protection index, and active labor market policies, are associated with variation in total fertility rates across countries and over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"511-536"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Observational Study Comparing Three Instruments in Malawi.","authors":"Julio Romero-Prieto, Boniface Dulani, Bruno Masquelier, Malebogo Tlhajoane, Stéphane Helleringer, Jethro Banda, Georges Reniers","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12559628","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12559628","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Under-five mortality estimates for low- and middle-income countries are primarily derived from detailed birth or pregnancy histories collected through in-person household surveys. Such surveys are, however, resource intensive and vulnerable to interruption during epidemic outbreaks and other crises. Remotely deployed mobile phone surveys can circumvent these disadvantages, but their suitability for measuring population-level mortality has not been demonstrated. In this contribution, we examine Malawian mobile phone survey data from the Summary Birth Histories, Truncated Pregnancy Histories, and Full Pregnancy Histories instruments for estimating under-five mortality. Considering the limited penetration and the unequal distribution of mobile phones in Malawi, quota sampling was used to ensure representation of population subgroups where mobile phone ownership is low, and poststratification methods were applied to further attenuate selection bias. Resulting probabilities of dying, or q(x)-before 28 days, 12 months, and 60 months of life-are compared against external estimates from a recent Demographic and Health Survey, a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, and model-based estimates from the UN Inter-agency Group of Child Mortality Estimation. Mobile phone survey estimates using the Summary Birth Histories capture the historical trends of q(12m) and q(60m) up to 2018, but they are less reliable for the most recent years. Compared with external sources, estimates from the Truncated Pregnancy Histories appear to be biased downward. Estimates of q(28d), q(12m), and q(60m) from the Full Pregnancy Histories are in line with those published by the UN Inter-agency Group, but they are also suggestive of a mortality excess during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020‒2022. We conclude that mobile phone surveys are a promising method for collecting under-five mortality data, and particularly so via the Full Pregnancy Histories instrument.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"617-641"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13319107/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147785897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements in the United States Using Expected Years of Life: A Research Note.","authors":"Ginevra Floridi, Albert Esteve","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12546633","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12546633","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Over the past 170 years, the United States has undergone demographic, structural, and cultural changes that are reflected in-and a reflection of-changes in living arrangements. In this research note, we link living arrangements and life expectancy to calculate expected life years spent across different living arrangements by sex for the U.S. population for the period 1850-2021. We decompose changes in this measure by age group and describe change across cohorts. We use harmonized data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples, classifying living arrangements into alone, with primary kin only (partners, parents, and children), and in extended households; more detailed subcategories include, for example, single-parent households and extended families. Three historical ages of U.S. living arrangements emerge: a \"large household\" system (1850-1940) characterized by relative stability in the extended household, when primary kin arrangements incorporate the majority of the substantial gains in life expectancy; an era of \"primary kin\" dominance (1940-1980) when life years spent only with primary kin increase faster than life expectancy, while the prevalence of extended households declines; and a \"diversified\" phase (1980-onward) characterized by a decline in two-parent households in favor of greater diversity, including living alone and with extended family.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"391-402"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147634595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Has Generational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans.","authors":"Kevin Corinth, Jeff Larrimore","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12555050","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12555050","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Whether each generation of Americans continues to economically surpass the previous one has recently been called into question. We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36-40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"589-616"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147724175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Completed Cohort Fertility Projections? Insights From a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model Approach.","authors":"Joanne Ellison, Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530362","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12530362","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Fertility projections inform population projections and are used to plan for the future provision of vital services such as maternity care and schooling. Existing fertility forecasting models tend to use aggregate births data indexed by age and time alone, thereby neglecting to include information about parity, that is, the number of previous live-born children. This omission risks ignoring a crucial mechanism of fertility dynamics. We propose a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model to complete cohort fertility, within a generalized additive model framework. The use of such models enables a smooth age‒cohort rate surface to be estimated for each parity simultaneously. We constrain our model using aggregate data and additionally introduce random walk priors on completed family size and parity progression ratios, which are summary fertility measures known to change relatively slowly over time. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and data from the Human Fertility Database, we fit our model to 16 countries. We compare our forecasts with the best-performing existing models to quantify the impact of including the parity dimension on predictive accuracy. Our findings indicate that a parity-specific approach could lead to more plausible and reliable fertility projections, aiding government planners in their decision-making and enabling more tailored policy solutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"453-481"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ending Birthright Citizenship Would Have Disparate Impacts on U.S.-born Children of Asian and Latino Immigrants.","authors":"Jennifer Van Hook, A Nicole Kreisberg","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530315","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12530315","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order that would redefine the citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment by discontinuing birthright citizenship for future children born to certain noncitizen parents. Prior research estimates that ending birthright citizenship would increase the \"unauthorized,\" or otherwise precarious noncitizen, population by 2.5 million in one decade. We show that the largest absolute impact of ending birthright citizenship would affect Latinos, who would compose nearly 80% of \"unauthorized\" births in the short term and more than 90% of U.S.-born \"unauthorized\" people by 2050, expanding the projected size of the Latino unauthorized population by nearly 30%. This projected increase is attributable to the fact that Latinos currently make up the largest share of unauthorized immigrants. After accounting for population size, however, we show that the Asian population would experience the largest relative impact of ending birthright citizenship, especially in the near future. Specifically, we project 41 \"unauthorized\" births per 1,000 unauthorized Asians, compared with 17 \"unauthorized\" births per 1,000 among Latinos. This disparate relative impact on Asians stems from their much larger share of temporary nonimmigrant visa holders, whose U.S.-born children would be newly classified as \"unauthorized\" under the executive order. These disparate absolute and relative impacts on millions of children and their families deserve a fuller understanding of the associated societal implications.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"435-451"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147582811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock.","authors":"Rong Fu, Senhu Wang, Yichen Shen, Haruko Noguchi","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12530548","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12530548","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite extensive research on education's relationship with family formation, causal evidence remains limited, particularly for postsecondary education in East Asia. This research note provides novel causal evidence on education's effects on marriage and fertility among Japanese women by exploiting a unique quasi-experimental design based on the 1966 \"Firehorse\" zodiac superstition. We leverage the mismatch between Japanese school year and calendar year to identify women who benefited from reduced educational competition without being directly affected by the superstition. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive data on approximately 1.8 million women from multiple administrative sources, we examine the effect of increased educational opportunities across all education levels. Our findings reveal that higher education leads to modest delays in marriage and childbearing-effects that are smaller than previously documented-without increasing lifelong singlehood. Women with more education show higher labor force participation at marriage and marry slightly younger spouses while maintaining traditional marriage practices. These results suggest that education's direct effect on family formation is moderate and that institutional factors beyond education may deserve greater attention in understanding demographic trends in East Asia. Our findings contribute to debates about effective family policies in rapidly aging societies facing declining marriage and fertility rates.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"375-390"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147595447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nature's Curriculum: Genes Linked to Educational Attainment and Adult Socioeconomic Status Across Birth Cohorts in a Nordic Welfare State.","authors":"Henrik Dobewall, Maria Vaalavuo, Petri Böckerman, Jutta Viinikainen, Outi Sirniö, Katri Kantojärvi, Jaakko Pehkonen, Olli Raitakari, Terho Lehtimäki","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12550847","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12550847","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent research has identified genes linked to educational attainment, but their effects on subsequent socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in egalitarian Nordic welfare states, remain largely unexplored. We analyze two genetically informed Finnish datasets, encompassing longitudinal register information on earnings, employment, unemployment, occupational status, and social assistance receipt (n = 31,622). We examine the role of a polygenic score for educational attainment (EA PGS), achieved level of education, and family socioeconomic background in predicting these outcomes in adulthood. We further study cohort differences around Finland's comprehensive school reform of the 1970s that aimed to promote equality of opportunity. Our results show that in the post-reform generation, EA PGS did not significantly predict adulthood outcomes after controlling for the achieved level of education. A notable exception was for occupational status. In contrast, in the pre-reform generation, EA PGS predicted later socioeconomic outcomes beyond education, indicating relationships not fully explained by schooling. Parental income did not moderate the effect of the EA PGS. Our findings shed additional light on the mechanisms connecting genetic factors and life chances, demonstrating that institutional setting and schooling can shape the influence of genetic endowment for high educational attainment in adult socioeconomic status.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"537-559"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147724196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Cumulative Exposure to Exclusionary Zoning in Impoverished Neighborhoods.","authors":"Matthew Mleczko","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12468457","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12468457","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this study, I carry out dynamic modeling strategies to estimate the cumulative associations between exclusionary zoning and material hardship in impoverished neighborhoods. To do so, I create the largest nationwide panel zoning database to date by combining the National Zoning and Land Use Database covering the years 2019‒2022 with prior zoning and land use data from 2003‒2006. Accounting for posttreatment bias-the bias generated by including time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by past treatments in a longitudinal model-with marginal structural models, I demonstrate that exclusionary zoning is strongly associated with neighborhood disadvantage in impoverished neighborhoods, much more than would be uncovered using fixed effects or other modeling approaches. Exclusionary zoning is associated with higher median rents and higher shares of rent-burdened households in impoverished communities. Higher rents may be generated by higher housing prices as well as by a shortage of housing available to below-median income households throughout a metro area. These results suggest that exclusionary zoning policies may not only contribute to concentrated advantage in affluent areas but also have spillover effects that have negative long-run consequences for disadvantaged neighboring communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"213-239"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147327714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort Differences in the Cumulative Risk of Criminalization in Texas.","authors":"Lindsay Bing","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12458311","DOIUrl":"10.1215/00703370-12458311","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Studies estimating the cumulative risk of imprisonment have been central to documenting the rise of incarceration and its consequences for inequality in the United States. Data limitations have stymied efforts to document the risk of criminal legal contact falling short of imprisonment, however, and few studies estimate risks among groups other than Black and White men. Although less severe than imprisonment, subfelony contact also carries damaging and lifelong consequences. Using more than 25 years of administrative criminal record data from Texas, this study estimates the prevalence of both subfelony and felony arrest, prosecution, conviction, and incarceration across five cohorts of Black, White, and Hispanic men and women born between 1971 and 1995. Findings show that subfelony contact is 3‒18 times as prevalent, and far more widely distributed across the population, as felony conviction and incarceration: fewer than 3% of Black women go to prison by age 24, but at least 22% are arrested at least once. Although risks of felony events have fallen substantially for some groups, subfelony criminalization has persisted at high and increasingly unequal rates. These findings have implications for our understanding of the reach of the criminal legal system and its role in shaping inequality in the twenty-first century.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"163-186"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146150987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}