International Organization最新文献_第2页

Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia 和平与利益：哥伦比亚叛军分裂与冲突再起

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000213

Frank Wyer

{"title":"Peace Versus Profit: Rebel Fragmentation and Conflict Resurgence in Colombia","authors":"Frank Wyer","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000213","url":null,"abstract":"Why do rebel splinter groups emerge during peace processes, and who chooses to defect? Since Colombia's landmark peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, roughly half of the territory once controlled by the group has seen a resurgence of rebel activity by FARC splinter groups. I argue that the FARC's return to arms is a case of “middle-out fragmentation,” whereby opportunities for profit induce mid- or low-ranking rebel commanders to establish splinter groups. In Colombia, I argue that profits from the cocaine trade incentivized local-level FARC officers to defect from the peace agreement and allowed them to rapidly mobilize viable splinter groups. I offer several lines of evidence for this argument. I first construct a chronology of splinter group formation, which demonstrates that mid- and low-level commanders, rather than high-level commanders, were the key drivers of fragmentation. Second, I show that splinter groups emerged in areas where opportunities for profit were greatest. Among areas previously controlled by the FARC, those with coca cultivation prior to the peace agreement were up to thirty-seven percentage points more likely to see splinter groups emerge by 2020 than areas without significant production. Using soil and weather conditions to instrument for coca cultivation produces similar results. Further, I use a novel measure of how critical each municipality is to drug trafficking to show that areas that are theoretically most important for drug trafficking are also more likely to see FARC resurgence. I also address competing explanations related to state capacity, terrain, and popular support for the rebels. These findings highlight an important challenge to peacebuilding: satisfying the political demands of rebel leadership is a necessary but insufficient component of peace agreements in cases where opportunities for profit motivate fragmentation from the middle out.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"158 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142601946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Laws of War and Public Support for Foreign Combatants 战争法与公众对外国战斗人员的支持

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000274

Yonatan Lupu, Geoffrey P.R. Wallace

{"title":"The Laws of War and Public Support for Foreign Combatants","authors":"Yonatan Lupu, Geoffrey P.R. Wallace","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000274","url":null,"abstract":"Are publics in great power democracies more likely to approve of foreign armed combatants that comply with international humanitarian law (IHL)? There is a wealth of evidence that armed combatants with an incentive to seek the support of outside compliance constituencies are more likely to adhere to IHL. Yet a key mechanism underlying these claims—that people in great power democracies are more likely to support armed combatants that comply with IHL—has not been directly tested. We address this question using a series of experiments embedded in nationally representative surveys conducted in three democracies that have frequently been involved in foreign interventions: France, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that belligerents—both governments and rebels—that comply with the laws of war are significantly more likely to garner support from publics in likely intervening countries compared to those who do not comply. In all three countries, compliance with international law caused greater approval of armed combatants as well as greater support for economic or military intervention (although support for military intervention remained relatively low in the treatment groups). This lends support to arguments that, to the extent combatants seek support from outside audiences, this can serve as a mechanism by which international law constrains armed combat.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Foreign Policy Appointments 外交政策任命

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1017/s002081832400016x

Matt Malis

{"title":"Foreign Policy Appointments","authors":"Matt Malis","doi":"10.1017/s002081832400016x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002081832400016x","url":null,"abstract":"How do leaders select their top-level foreign policy appointees? Through a formal model of the domestic and intragovernmental politics surrounding an international crisis, I investigate the trade-offs shaping leaders’ appointment strategies. In the model, a leader selects a foreign policy appointee, anticipating how the appointment will affect the advice he receives in the crisis, the electorate's evaluation of his performance, and ultimately the policies that he and his foreign counterparts pursue as a consequence. The analysis uncovers a fundamental tension in the leader's ability to use appointments to advance his core political and policy objectives of deterring foreign aggression, obtaining accurate advice, and maximizing domestic approval: any appointment that advances one of these objectives invariably comes at the cost of another, and the leader's appointment strategy must balance across these trade-offs. Analyzing cross-national appointment patterns to the offices of ministers of defense and foreign affairs, I find descriptive evidence consistent with the model's predictions: leaders from dovish parties are more than twice as likely as leaders from hawkish parties to select cross-partisan and politically independent appointees, and such appointments are less likely for leaders of either party as they approach re-election.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142100655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Violent Competition and Terrorist Restraint 暴力竞争与恐怖主义克制

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000110

Sara M.T. Polo, Blair Welsh

{"title":"Violent Competition and Terrorist Restraint","authors":"Sara M.T. Polo, Blair Welsh","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000110","url":null,"abstract":"A large literature has argued that domestic competition increases a militant organization's use and severity of terrorism to differentiate their “brand” and “outbid” other organizations. However, most empirical analyses infer such competition from the quantity of groups present in a geographic area. This approach neglects specific group relationships, such as cooperation, rhetorical or violent rivalry, or peaceful coexistence. We introduce a behavioral measure of group competition and argue that variation in the quality, rather than the quantity, of competition affects the violence profile of militant groups in unexpected ways. Violent competition, where militants attack one another, imposes significant constraints on group resources and increases groups’ dependence on civilian support, which exacerbates the costs of a popular backlash against brutality. Moreover, violent competition effectively substitutes for crowding out rivals via outbidding. As competition becomes extreme, we posit that groups increasingly opt for a strategy of terrorist restraint and reduce the share of high-profile attacks on soft civilian targets. We test this argument at the macro and micro levels with cross-national data on 290 organizations in civil war (1970–2018) and granular data on the subnational targeting strategy of the Islamic State in Syria (2013–2018). Both analyses provide robust support for our argument. The findings shed light on the strategic limitations of outbidding and provide important insights for research and policy.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resources and Territorial Claims: Domestic Opposition to Resource-Rich Territory 资源与领土要求：国内对资源丰富领土的反对意见

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000134

Soyoung Lee

{"title":"Resources and Territorial Claims: Domestic Opposition to Resource-Rich Territory","authors":"Soyoung Lee","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000134","url":null,"abstract":"Are states more interested in claiming territories that have economic resources? While previous theories of international relations assume that resources make a territory more tempting to claim, all else equal, I argue that certain types of economic resources can make states less willing to claim a territory. The presence of capital-intensive resources—such as oil or minerals—raises concerns about how the benefits of acquiring the territory would be distributed within the nation. These distributional concerns make it harder and costlier for leaders to mobilize widespread and consistent support for claiming resource-rich lands. Using original geocoded data on territorial claims in South America from 1830 to 2001, I show that states are indeed less likely to claim lands that have oil or minerals, even when they can be claimed for historical or administrative reasons. I then illustrate the theoretical mechanism through a case study of Bolivia, comparing Bolivian attitudes toward reclaiming its two lost provinces, the Chaco and the Litoral. By showing how the presence of economic resources can become a liability in mobilizing unified support, this paper questions the widespread assumption that resources make territories more desirable to claim.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Future Is History: Restorative Nationalism and Conflict in Post-Napoleonic Europe 未来即历史：后拿破仑时代欧洲的恢复性民族主义与冲突

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000122

Lars-Erik Cederman, Yannick I. Pengl, Luc Girardin, Carl Müller-Crepon

引用次数: 0

Security, Society, and the Perennial Struggles over the Sacred: Revising the Wars of Religion in International Relations Theory 安全、社会和对神圣事物的长期争夺：修订国际关系理论中的宗教战争

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000109

Derek Bolton

{"title":"Security, Society, and the Perennial Struggles over the Sacred: Revising the Wars of Religion in International Relations Theory","authors":"Derek Bolton","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000109","url":null,"abstract":"International relations theory tends to build on the conventional narrative of the Wars of Religion (WoR), which holds it was the irrationality of religious violence that generated the modern international system of pragmatic secular states—resulting in the presumed secularized, rational, and unemotive nature of politics. In contrast, this article reorients our focus to Durkheim's more social view of religion as a community of believers and to the continued role of the sacred and shared emotion/affect in social and political life. Specifically, it examines how modern communities (such as nations) remain constituted by a shared faith in conceptions of the sacred and how the corresponding sense of moral order is central to the enduring pursuit of ontological security. Therefore, it argues that international relations should focus on the perennial struggles over what communities hold sacred and that we can better understand the propensity for (“religious” or “secular”) violence by examining the continual interplay between the sacred, ontological security, and the hermeneutics of morality—with the so-called WoR being the locus classicus of this argument. Historical studies exploring how participants in the WoR navigated such struggles over the sacred thus allow us to explore these dynamics and further conceptualize our understanding of the sacred within modern “secular” politics. The article concludes by examining how the prospect for violence is interrelated with the perennial struggles over the sacred within, and between, political orders—a sentiment that brings into relief some of the hazards accompanying growing intrastate moral polarization and interstate ideological rivalry.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141895349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Racial Tropes in the Foreign Policy Bureaucracy: A Computational Text Analysis 外交政策官僚机构中的种族主题：计算文本分析

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000146

Austin Carson, Eric Min, Maya Van Nuys

{"title":"Racial Tropes in the Foreign Policy Bureaucracy: A Computational Text Analysis","authors":"Austin Carson, Eric Min, Maya Van Nuys","doi":"10.1017/s0020818324000146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818324000146","url":null,"abstract":"How do racial stereotypes affect perceptions in foreign policy? Race and racism as topics have long been marginalized in the study of international relations but are receiving renewed attention. In this article we assess the role of implicit racial bias in internal, originally classified assessments by the US foreign policy bureaucracy during the Cold War. We use a combination of dictionary-based and supervised machine learning techniques to identify the presence of four racial tropes in a unique corpus of intelligence documents: almost 5,000 President's Daily Briefs given to Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford. We argue and find that entries about countries that the US deemed “racialized Others”—specifically, countries in the Global South, newly independent states, and some specific regional groupings—feature an especially large number of racial tropes. Entries about foreign developments in these places are more likely to feature interpretations that infantilize, invoke animal-based analogies, or imply irrationality or belligerence. This association holds even when accounting for the presence of conflict, the regime type of the country being analyzed, the invocation of leaders, and the topics being discussed. The article makes two primary contributions. First, it adds to the revival of attention to race but gives special emphasis to implicit racialized thinking and its appearance in bureaucratic settings. Second, we show the promise of new tools for identifying racial and other forms of implicit bias in foreign policy texts.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"175 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141877401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Women and Men Politicians’ Response to War: Evidence from Ukraine 女性和男性政治家对战争的反应：来自乌克兰的证据

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000080

Taylor J. Damann, Dahjin Kim, Margit Tavits

引用次数: 0

Oversight Hearings, Stakeholder Engagement, and Compliance in the Inter-American Court of Human Rights 美洲人权法院的监督听证、利益攸关方参与和合规性

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818324000092

Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Angie K. García Atehortúa

引用次数: 0