International Organization最新文献_第3页

Closing Pandora’s Box: Can Shared Vulnerability Underpin Territorial Stability? 关闭潘多拉魔盒：共同的脆弱性能否巩固领土稳定？

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101240

Jamie Hintson, Kenneth A. Schultz

{"title":"Closing Pandora’s Box: Can Shared Vulnerability Underpin Territorial Stability?","authors":"Jamie Hintson, Kenneth A. Schultz","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101240","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars and policymakers have argued that territorial revisionism is dangerous because it risks setting off a cascade of claims by states dissatisfied with their borders. This Pandora’s box logic suggests that states that are vulnerable to an unraveling of the status quo have incentives to restrain their territorial ambitions to preserve stability. This paper explores this claim theoretically and empirically. It provides descriptive evidence to determine whether vulnerability to territorial threats has historically been associated with a lower likelihood of initiating territorial disputes. We find some evidence of such an effect in postindependence Africa, where this logic is most frequently invoked, and to some extent in Asia, but not in other regions. To help explain these empirical observations, we develop a multistate model of territorial conflict that identifies the conditions under which cooperation to preserve the territorial status quo can be sustained. The model shows that while an equilibrium of mutual restraint can exist, the necessary conditions are quite restrictive, and this cooperative equilibrium is never unique. Thus while a Pandora’s box of potential claims can provide the basis for a norm of restraint, the emergence of such a norm is neither straightforward nor guaranteed.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146115590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems 授权破坏：强制威胁和自动化核系统

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101215

Joshua A. Schwartz, Michael C. Horowitz

{"title":"Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems","authors":"Joshua A. Schwartz, Michael C. Horowitz","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101215","url":null,"abstract":"Are nuclear weapons useful for coercion, and, if so, what factors increase the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats? While prominent scholars like Thomas Schelling argue that nuclear brinkmanship, or the manipulation of nuclear risk, can effectively coerce adversaries, others contend nuclear weapons are not effective tools of coercion, especially when designed to achieve offensive and revisionist objectives. Simultaneously, there is broad debate about the incorporation of automation via artificial intelligence into military systems, especially nuclear command and control. We develop a theoretical argument that nuclear threats implemented with automated nuclear launch systems are more credible compared to those implemented via non-automated means. By reducing human control over nuclear use, leaders can more effectively tie their hands and thus signal resolve, even if doing so increases the risk of nuclear war and thus is extremely dangerous. Preregistered survey experiments on an elite sample of United Kingdom Members of Parliament and two public samples of UK citizens provide support for these expectations, showing that in a crisis scenario involving a Russian invasion of Estonia, automated nuclear threats can increase credibility and willingness to back down. From a policy perspective, this paper highlights the dangers of countries adopting automated nuclear systems for malign purposes, and contributes to the literatures on coercive bargaining, weapons of mass destruction, and emerging technology.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Authoritarian Reforms and External Legitimacy 威权改革与外部合法性

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101197

Calvert W. Jones

{"title":"Authoritarian Reforms and External Legitimacy","authors":"Calvert W. Jones","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101197","url":null,"abstract":"A growing body of work suggests that authoritarian regimes can enhance their external legitimacy by undertaking reform—from democratic or “pseudodemocratic” institutional changes at the domestic level to participation in international efforts to mitigate climate change. Yet the shared theoretical logic underlying this work has received surprisingly little empirical attention. This research contributes by offering findings from an iterative series of original survey experiments conducted over nationally representative samples of US citizens. Study 1 tested the foundational hypothesis—that reforms build external legitimacy—by adopting a simple independent groups design. Studies 2 and 3 subjected that hypothesis to harder tests via conjoint designs, and also evaluated extension hypotheses about when and in what sense “legitimacy” is gained. Across studies, the results consistently demonstrate that reforms (of a variety of types) do generate external legitimacy, offering both positive benefits as well as shielding benefits in keeping with theoretical arguments. The results also provide support for several new and previously undocumented findings concerning the role of reform type, type of legitimacy-derived gain, and the conditions under which such gains are more or less likely to accrue.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery 让贿赂再次有利可图？暂缓追究海外贿赂责任的市场效应

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325100970

Lorenzo Crippa, Edmund J. Malesky, Lucio Picci

{"title":"Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery","authors":"Lorenzo Crippa, Edmund J. Malesky, Lucio Picci","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325100970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325100970","url":null,"abstract":"In February 2025, US President Trump signed an executive order blocking the initiation of any new investigations or enforcement actions under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which had made it unlawful for US companies to bribe foreign public officials. We analyze market valuations of publicly traded multinationals on US financial markets before and after the announcement. On the day of the executive order, former FCPA targets whose stocks are publicly traded experienced returns on equity markets that were about 0.69 percentage points higher than what would have been expected from stock market trends. The effects cumulated substantively, resulting in capitalization gains for the portfolio of past targets of corporate corruption cases of about USD 39 billion and outsized returns to shareholders. These results allow us to contribute to long-standing debates about how much of the costs multinationals experience from corruption are due to legal enforcement versus the inefficiency and uncertainty it generates for firm operations. When legal enforcement is removed, valuations of firms at risk of corruption rise dramatically, indicating that investors perceive the legal costs as an important threat to investment in corrupt firms. Suspending FCPA enforcement is thus likely to induce market confidence in risky investments.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145711325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When Do Citizens Support Peace-Building? Economic Hardship and Civilian Support for Rebel Reintegration 公民何时支持和平建设？经济困难和平民支持叛军重返社会

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101136

Amanda Kennard, Konstantin Sonin, Austin L. Wright

引用次数: 0

Population Displacement and State Building: The Legacies of Pashtun Resettlement in Afghanistan 人口迁移和国家建设：普什图人在阿富汗重新安置的遗产

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101008

David B. Carter, Austin L. Wright, Luwei Ying

{"title":"Population Displacement and State Building: The Legacies of Pashtun Resettlement in Afghanistan","authors":"David B. Carter, Austin L. Wright, Luwei Ying","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101008","url":null,"abstract":"Population displacement is a prominent state-building strategy. Using either force or positive inducements, states sponsor the resettlement of racial, ethnic, or linguistic groups to consolidate territorial control. We evaluate the long-run consequences of large-scale displacement by analyzing a historical episode in Afghanistan: the relocation of Pashtun communities during the rule of Emir Abd al-Rahman. Using historical records, we reconstruct the map of relocated tribes to identify contemporary settlements that are connected to the original displaced settlements. We analyze novel, microlevel survey data on more than 80,000 subjects to study how contemporary attitudes about the central government and the Taliban as well as individuals’ identity salience differ across coethnic communities separated by the emir’s state-building effort. We argue that under conditions common to many historical cases, settlers develop regional political identities that are neither ethnocentric, nor pro-central-state, nor focused on national identity. We show that the long-term consequences of the state-led resettlement of Pashtuns to northern Afghanistan are stronger attachments to regional government and local institutions, along with greater hostility to the central government and the Taliban relative to Pashtuns in the south and east.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"166 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145598776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Architecture of Containment: Refugee Protection in a Postliberal Order 遏制的架构：后自由主义秩序下的难民保护

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101100

Perisa Davutoglu

{"title":"The Architecture of Containment: Refugee Protection in a Postliberal Order","authors":"Perisa Davutoglu","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101100","url":null,"abstract":"This essay argues that the global refugee regime is undergoing a fundamental transformation. While the 1951 Refugee Convention and its legal framework remain formally intact, their practical application has shifted toward a model of flexible containment. Rather than offering protection within their own borders, states increasingly manage displacement through externalization, legal ambiguity, and informal cooperation. Drawing on the concepts of institutional drift and legal substitution, the essay shows how states recalibrate their obligations without renouncing them, preserving the appearance of compliance while limiting access to asylum. These practices form a broader architecture of containment, characterized by border externalization, procedural delays, and institutional delegation. What emerges is not the collapse of the refugee regime but its reconfiguration around a postliberal logic that prioritizes sovereignty, discretion, and risk management over multilateralism and rights enforcement. By tracing this shift across legal frameworks and policy instruments, the essay contributes to debates on norm erosion, soft law, and the future of international cooperation. It concludes by calling for a rethinking of solidarity and responsibility in global governance, recognizing that the challenge is not simply to restore past commitments but to confront the evolving politics of mobility and protection in a fragmented international order.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"369 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership 世界秩序不受约束的未来：对民主约束的攻击及其对美国全球领导地位的影响

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101161

Susan D. Hyde, Elizabeth N. Saunders

{"title":"The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership","authors":"Susan D. Hyde, Elizabeth N. Saunders","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101161","url":null,"abstract":"Any theoretically informed predictions about the future of international order and global governance must reckon with the power and intentions of the United States. We argue that fundamental changes in the nature of domestic audience constraint within many democracies, and the United States in particular, undermine both the willingness and the capability of the United States to continue its role as the underwriter of international order and global governance. A US government unbound by domestic constraint will have difficulty building broad coalitions to solve national and international problems because it will have reduced incentives to invest in public goods, including national defense, science and technology, and future economic prosperity; reduced barriers to corruption that undermines the quality of and trust in US capabilities; and reduced state capacity, including the capacity to finance wars and other long-term international commitments. We argue that three trends were especially relevant in reshaping domestic audience constraint: information fragmentation, extreme polarization, and a global threat environment that facilitated executive power concentration. Together they reduce the costs and risks for leaders to escape domestic audience constraints, weakening the institutional and accountability mechanisms that give democracies advantages in the international system. Though these trends affect many democracies, the undermining of US domestic constraint is particularly consequential because the United States shaped and buttressed the current system. An unconstrained United States likely means a less cooperative and less predictable global order, irrevocably altering the post-1945 system.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump 美元贬值：特朗普治下美国金融霸权的瓦解

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101033

Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, Johannes Petry

{"title":"Dollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump","authors":"Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, Johannes Petry","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101033","url":null,"abstract":"The actions of the second Trump administration pose a serious threat to the dominance of the US dollar. Erratic US policies erode global trust in the United States and force states and private actors alike to reconsider their reliance on the dollar. This is reflected across three dimensions of dollar dominance: in trade and payments, as reserve currency and safe asset, and as global investment and funding currency. What distinguishes the current moment from previous predictions of a decline of financial hegemony is that the dollar’s global role is now challenged across all three dimensions simultaneously. Following the Global Financial Crisis, growing uneasiness with US financial power, especially the use of financial sanctions, already created cracks at the margins of the system and prompted a search for alternatives, triggering partial reserve diversification and de-dollarization of trade and payments systems. Under Trump, the undermining of the global economic order, growing fiscal deficits, and continued attacks on the institutional foundations of the administrative state are fundamentally undermining trust in the United States that is fundamental for the dollar’s global role. This signals a rupture in the US-centric global financial system, altering the foundations of the rules-based liberal international order (LIO). However, existing network effects slow down this process and no alternative can yet replace the dollar. The result is a financial interregnum where rising powers seek autonomy and influence without assuming hegemonic responsibility, leading to a more fragmented, multipolar financial order.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The End of Autocratic Norm Adaptation? US Retrenchment and Liberal Norms in Illiberal Regimes 专制规范适应的终结？美国紧缩与非自由政体中的自由规范

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818325101148

Sarah Sunn Bush, Daniela Donno, Jon C.W. Pevehouse, Christina J. Schneider

{"title":"The End of Autocratic Norm Adaptation? US Retrenchment and Liberal Norms in Illiberal Regimes","authors":"Sarah Sunn Bush, Daniela Donno, Jon C.W. Pevehouse, Christina J. Schneider","doi":"10.1017/s0020818325101148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818325101148","url":null,"abstract":"In the post–Cold War era, many authoritarian regimes engaged in strategic liberalization in response to international norms promoted by Western powers. As US support for democracy and human rights recedes, will this retreat prompt a global rollback of liberal reforms? While pessimistic accounts predict a return to overt repression, we argue that liberal norm adaptation within autocracies is likely to prove more resilient. We highlight two sources of continuity. First, autocrats’ domestic control strategies create incentives to retain certain liberal practices—such as elections, gender reforms, or limited media openness—that bolster legitimacy, co-opt dissent, and help manage opposition. Second, reforms anchored in treaties, international organizations, and domestic bureaucracies have generated expectations and mobilizational platforms, making wholesale reversals politically costly and prone to backlash. Our analysis illustrates how reforms, even when adopted instrumentally, have become sufficiently embedded in domestic politics to persist in the absence of strong external enforcement.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"146 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0