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INO volume 77 issue 4 Cover and Back matter INO 第 77 卷第 4 期封面和封底资料

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000279

引用次数: 0

Do Exchange Rates Influence Voting? Evidence from Elections and Survey Experiments in Democracies 汇率影响投票吗?来自民主国家选举和调查实验的证据

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1017/s002081832300022x

Dennis P. Quinn, Thomas Sattler, Stephen Weymouth

{"title":"Do Exchange Rates Influence Voting? Evidence from Elections and Survey Experiments in Democracies","authors":"Dennis P. Quinn, Thomas Sattler, Stephen Weymouth","doi":"10.1017/s002081832300022x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002081832300022x","url":null,"abstract":"Intense debate surrounds the effects of trade on voting, yet less attention has been paid to how fluctuations in the real exchange rate may influence elections. A moderately overvalued currency enhances consumers’ purchasing power, yet extreme overvaluation threatens exports and economic growth. We therefore expect exchange rates to have a conditional effect on elections: when a currency is undervalued, voters will punish incumbents for further depreciations; yet when it is highly overvalued, they may reward incumbents for depreciation. We empirically explore our argument in three steps. First, we examine up to 412 elections in up to 59 democratic countries and show that voters generally punish depreciation in the real exchange rate when the currency is undervalued. We also find that at extremely high levels of currency overvaluation, voters sometimes reward incumbents for depreciation. A currency peg, especially in the eurozone, appears to insulate incumbents from these effects. In a second step, we explore the microfoundations of the election results through survey experiments in three advanced industrialized and two emerging market nations with different monetary and exchange rate policies and institutions. Respondents in countries with undervalued to mildly overvalued currencies disapprove of currency depreciations, whereas those facing a very highly overvalued currency favor depreciation. Third, we examine the mechanism of political competition in exchange rate policymaking and demonstrate that sustained undervaluation is rare in countries with strong political competition. Democratic governments have electoral incentives to avoid using undervalued currencies as a means of shielding workers from import competition.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138544720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unbundling the State: Legal Development in an Era of Global, Private Governance 拆分国家:全球私人治理时代的法律发展

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000218

Michael O. Allen

{"title":"Unbundling the State: Legal Development in an Era of Global, Private Governance","authors":"Michael O. Allen","doi":"10.1017/s0020818323000218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818323000218","url":null,"abstract":"What happens to a public, domestic institution when its authority is delegated to a privately run, transnational institution? I argue that outsourcing traditionally national legal responsibilities to transnational bodies can lead to the stagnation of domestic institutional capacity. I examine this through a study of international commercial arbitration (ICA), a widely used system of cross-border commercial dispute resolution. I argue that ICA provides commercial actors an “exit option” from weak public institutions, reducing pressure on the state to invest in capacity-enhancing reform. I find that the enactment of strong protections for ICA leads to the gradual erosion of the capacity of domestic legal institutions, particularly in countries with already weak legal systems. I test the mechanism driving this dynamic using dispute data from the International Chamber of Commerce. I find that pro-arbitration laws increase the use of international arbitration by national firms, suggesting that firms use ICA as an escape from domestic institutions. This article contributes to debates on globalization and development as well as work on the second-order effects of global governance institutions.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138544877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

INO volume 77 issue 4 Cover and Front matter INO 第 77 卷第 4 期封面和封底

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000267

B. Leeds, Layna Mosley, B. Rosendorff, Rebecca Adler-Nissen, J. Broz, Allison Carnegie, David B. Carter, Alexandre Debs, James Fearon, M. Finnemore

引用次数: 0

Terrified or Enraged? Emotional Microfoundations of Public Counterterror Attitudes 害怕还是愤怒？公众反恐态度的情感微环境

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000152

Carly N. Wayne

{"title":"Terrified or Enraged? Emotional Microfoundations of Public Counterterror Attitudes","authors":"Carly N. Wayne","doi":"10.1017/s0020818323000152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818323000152","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the widespread assumption of terrorism's “terrifying” effect, there has been little systematic testing of the specific emotional microfoundations underlying public opinion about terrorism. While fear is one well-recognized emotional response to terror threats, in societies where terrorism is rare, anger may play a more pivotal role, with distinct consequences for citizens’ downstream political attitudes. To test the impact of these emotional mechanisms on public opinion in the wake of terrorism, I employ a multi-arm mechanism experiment (n = 5,499) in the United States that manipulates both exposure to news about different types of terror attacks and the encouraged emotional response. I supplement this experimental study with observational analyses of the emotional content of social media posts in the wake of sixteen real-world terror attacks in the United States. I find that not only is anger the dominant emotional response to terrorism across both studies, but also that punitive motivations and support for retaliation are both directly shaped by experimentally induced anger after exposure to news about terrorism. These findings illuminate strategic incentives shaping militants’ use of terror tactics, electoral constraints leaders face in formulating counterterror policy, and the emotional mechanisms fueling cycles of political violence.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"74 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71435885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Civilized Barbarism: What We Miss When We Ignore Colonial Violence 文明的野蛮:当我们忽视殖民暴力时，我们错过了什么

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/s002081832300019x

Paul K. MacDonald

{"title":"Civilized Barbarism: What We Miss When We Ignore Colonial Violence","authors":"Paul K. MacDonald","doi":"10.1017/s002081832300019x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002081832300019x","url":null,"abstract":"Colonial warfare has been a frequent and bloody feature of international relations, yet most studies of wartime civilian victimization focus on either interstate or civil wars. In this article I argue that ignoring colonial violence has distorted our understanding of state-directed violence against civilians in wartime. I introduce a new theory of colonial violence, which focuses on the distinctive strategic, normative, and institutional incentives that colonial powers have to harm civilians. To assess this theory, I introduce and analyze a new data set of 193 cases of colonial war from 1816 to 2003. Using a variety of measures of civilian harm, I find that colonial wars are especially brutal. Three-quarters of states in colonial wars targeted civilians, for example, compared to less than a third of states in interstate wars. But some colonial wars are harder on civilians than others. Colonial powers are more likely to harm civilians when their indigenous adversaries employ guerrilla tactics, when their indigenous adversaries come from a different perceived racial background, and when the colonial state relies on settlers or indigenous intermediaries to help compensate for its relative weakness. By ignoring colonial violence in world politics, we misunderstand the scale and scope of state-directed violence against civilians and miss an opportunity to deepen our understanding of the causes of this brutality.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50164755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rethinking International Order in Early Modern Europe: Evidence from Courtly Ceremonial 重新思考近代早期欧洲的国际秩序:来自宫廷仪式的证据

1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000188

Quentin Bruneau

{"title":"Rethinking International Order in Early Modern Europe: Evidence from Courtly Ceremonial","authors":"Quentin Bruneau","doi":"10.1017/s0020818323000188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818323000188","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Once the object of consensus, every aspect of the traditional account of early modern Europe as an anarchic system of sovereign states is now debated—from the existence of sovereign states to the notion of anarchy, and even the European limits of that system. In the context of these disagreements, I develop a new account of international order in early modern Europe grounded in the perceptions of historical actors. I first argue that this can be achieved by studying the tools that practitioners relied on to describe and organize political authority in the world. I subsequently delve into a common, though seldom-studied, tool developed by a group of practitioners known as masters of ceremonies: courtly ceremonial (or ius praecedentiae ). I make three substantive claims. First, the political authorities identified in manuals on courtly ceremonial were primarily crowns and republics, but in the later eighteenth century, all eventually came to be described as “states.” Second, all political authorities stood in a hierarchy determined by a specific set of criteria I identify, but new criteria—power and sovereignty—emerged over the course of the eighteenth century. Third, the scope of international order was not self-evident, and it certainly did not have clear “European” limits in the eyes of masters of ceremonies; non-European political authorities could easily be integrated into their orders of precedence. Ultimately, I suggest that IR scholars should reconsider why they study early modern Europe and how they study international orders.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136236045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany 专制政府如何决定谁移民:来自东德的证据

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000127

Julian Michel, Michael K. Miller, Margaret E. Peters

引用次数: 0

Hacking Nuclear Stability: Wargaming Technology, Uncertainty, and Escalation 破解核稳定性：战争模拟技术、不确定性和升级

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1017/S0020818323000115

Jacquelyn G. Schneider, Benjamin Schechter, Rachael Shaffer

{"title":"Hacking Nuclear Stability: Wargaming Technology, Uncertainty, and Escalation","authors":"Jacquelyn G. Schneider, Benjamin Schechter, Rachael Shaffer","doi":"10.1017/S0020818323000115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818323000115","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How do emerging technologies affect nuclear stability? In this paper, we use a quasi-experimental cyber-nuclear wargame with 580 players to explore three hypotheses about emerging technologies and nuclear stability: (1) technological uncertainty leads to preemption and escalation; (2) technological uncertainty leads to restraint; and (3) technological certainty leads to escalation through aggressive counterforce campaigns. The wargames suggest that uncertainty and fear about cyber vulnerabilities create no immediate incentives for preemptive nuclear use. The greater danger to strategic stability lies in how overconfidence in cyber exploits incentivizes more aggressive counterforce campaigns and, secondarily, how vulnerabilities encourage predelegation or automation. Both of these effects suggest worrisome relationships between cyber exploits and inadvertent nuclear use on one hand and cyber vulnerabilities and accidental nuclear use on the other hand. Together, these findings reveal the complicated relationship between pathways to escalation and strategic stability, highlighting the role that confidence and perhaps-misplaced certainty—versus uncertainty and fear—play in strategic stability.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"77 1","pages":"633 - 667"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43436479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

INO volume 77 issue 2 Cover and Front matter 国际出版组织第77卷第2期封面和封面问题

IF 7.8 1区社会学

International Organization Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.1017/s0020818323000097

引用次数: 0