International Organization最新文献

{"title":"Making Sense of Human Rights Diplomacy: Evidence from a US Campaign to Free Political Prisoners","authors":"Rachel Myrick, J. Weinstein","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000424","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Scholarship on human rights diplomacy (HRD)—efforts by government officials to engage publicly and privately with their foreign counterparts—often focuses on actions taken to “name and shame” target countries because private diplomatic activities are unobservable. To understand how HRD works in practice, we explore a campaign coordinated by the US government to free twenty female political prisoners. We compare release rates of the featured women to two comparable groups: a longer list of women considered by the State Department for the campaign; and other women imprisoned simultaneously in countries targeted by the campaign. Both approaches suggest that the campaign was highly effective. We consider two possible mechanisms through which expressive public HRD works: by imposing reputational costs and by mobilizing foreign actors. However, in-depth interviews with US officials and an analysis of media coverage find little evidence of these mechanisms. Instead, we argue that public pressure resolved deadlock within the foreign policy bureaucracy, enabling private diplomacy and specific inducements to secure the release of political prisoners. Entrepreneurial bureaucrats leveraged the spotlight on human rights abuses to overcome competing equities that prevent government-led coercive diplomacy on these issues. Our research highlights the importance of understanding the intersection of public and private diplomacy before drawing inferences about the effectiveness of HRD.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"379 - 413"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47131323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"See No Evil, Speak No Evil? Morality, Evolutionary Psychology, and the Nature of International Relations","authors":"Brian C. Rathbun, Caleb Pomeroy","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000436","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A central theme in the study of international relations is that anarchy requires states to set aside moral concerns to attain security, rendering IR an autonomous sphere devoid of ethical considerations. Evolutionary and moral psychology, however, suggest that morality emerged to promote human success under such conditions. It is not despite anarchy but because of anarchy that humans have an ethical sense. Our argument has three empirical implications. First, it is almost impossible to talk about threat and harm without invoking morality. Second, state leaders and the public will use moral judgments as a basis, indeed the most important factor, for assessing international threat, just as research shows they do at the interpersonal level. Third, foreign policy driven by a conception of international relations as an amoral sphere will be quite rare. Word embeddings applied to large political and nonpolitical corpora, a survey experiment in Russia, and an in-depth analysis of Hitler's foreign policy thought suggest that individuals both condemn aggressive behavior by others and screen for threats on the basis of morality. The findings erode notions of IR as an autonomous sphere and upset traditional materialist–ideational dichotomies.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"656 - 689"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46695903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Brexit Dilemmas: Shaping Postwithdrawal Relations with a Leaving State","authors":"I. Jurado, Sandra León, Stefanie Walter","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000412","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How do voters want their governments to respond when another country unilaterally withdraws from an international institution? We distinguish between negotiation approaches that vary in the degree to which they accommodate the withdrawing state's demands and argue that negotiation preferences are shaped by two issues. The first is voters’ exposure to the costs and benefits of accommodation. This exposure varies across issues, and we argue that citizens will generally prefer non-accommodation on zero-sum issues, but support more accommodation on cooperation issues, where non-accommodation puts existing cooperation gains at risk. Second, withdrawal negotiations create precedents, and citizens should therefore be less willing to accommodate the more they are concerned about the ripple effects of accommodation on the institution's stability. These concerns also confront citizens with two types of dilemmas depending on how favorably they view the institution themselves. To test our argument, we use survey evidence and a conjoint experiment conducted in Germany and Spain during the Brexit negotiations. We find that respondents overall are more willing to accommodate the UK on cooperation issues than on zero-sum issues, but also find evidence that Euroskeptics and Europhiles confront different issue-specific dilemmas. Our paper contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics surrounding the challenges to multilateralism that have proliferated in recent years.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"273 - 304"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45579625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effects of Naming and Shaming on Public Support for Compliance with International Agreements: An Experimental Analysis of the Paris Agreement","authors":"D. Tingley, Michael Tomz","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000394","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does naming and shaming affect public support for compliance with international agreements? We investigated this question by conducting survey experiments about the Paris Agreement, which relies on social pressure for enforcement. Our experiments, administered to national samples in the United States, produced three sets of findings. First, shaming by foreign countries shifted domestic public opinion in favor of compliance, increasing the political incentive to honor the Paris Agreement. Second, the effects of shaming varied with the behavior of the target. Shaming was more effective against partial compliers than against targets that took no action or honored their obligations completely. Moreover, even partial compliers managed to reduce the effects of shaming through the strategic use of counter-rhetoric. Third, identity moderated responses to shaming. Shaming by allies was not significantly more effective than shaming by non-allies, but Democrats were more receptive to shaming than Republicans. Overall, our experiments expose both the power and the limits of shaming as a strategy for enforcing the Paris Agreement. At the same time, they advance our understanding of the most significant environmental problem facing the planet.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"19 76","pages":"445 - 468"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41259761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on Dual Exchange Rates","authors":"R. Gulotty, Dorothy Kronick","doi":"10.1017/S002081832100031X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081832100031X","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Foundational theories of trade politics emphasize a conflict between consumer welfare and protectionist lobbies. But these theories ignore other powerful lobbies that also shape trade policy. We propose a theory of trade distortion arising from conflict between consumer welfare and importer lobbies. We estimate the key parameter of the model—the government's weight on welfare—using original data from Venezuela, where Hugo Chávez used an exchange-rate subsidy to underwrite hundreds of billions of dollars of imports. Whereas estimates from traditional models would make Chávez look like a welfare maximizer, our results indicate that he implemented distortionary commercial policy to the benefit of special interests. Our analysis underscores the importance of tailoring workhorse models to account for differences in interest group configuration. The politics of trade policy is not reducible to the politics of protectionism.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"105 - 125"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44342920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Chinese Power and the State-Owned Enterprise","authors":"R. Stone, Yu Wang, Shu Yu","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000308","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract China has become a leading source of outward foreign direct investment (FDI), and the Chinese state exercises a unique degree of influence over its firms. We explore the patterns of political influence over FDI using a comprehensive firm-level data set on Chinese outward FDI from 2000 to 2013. Using six country-level measures of affinity for China, we find that state-owned and globally diversified firms appear to conform most closely to official guidance. Official investment directives and state visits link investments to state policies; Taiwan recognition and Dalai Lama meetings anchor our political interpretations; and UN General Assembly voting and temporary UN Security Council membership suggest that this intervention may be systematic. The results are robust to country, year, and sector fixed effects, and most do not hold for private or small firms. The results suggest that China uses FDI by prominent state-owned enterprises as an instrument to promote its foreign policy.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"229 - 250"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/S0020818321000308","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46347270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European Free Trade Association","authors":"H. Hertig","doi":"10.1017/s002081830002470x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s002081830002470x","url":null,"abstract":"An important item of discussion during the Autumn months of 1960 among the members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) was reported to be the question of association with the European Economic Community (EEC), but the press announced in October a “lack of progress” in resolving the problems encountered. The question was said to have been included in the issues taken up at the second ministerial meeting of the Council, held in Berne, Switzerland, on October 11 and 12, 1960. Mr. Max Petitpierre, president of the Swiss Confederation, reportedly stated in an address to the Council that, even if there was little prospect of an agreement between EEC and EFTA in the immediate future, it was imperative that the two organizations work together, not only for commercial and economic reasons, but also because of the mission that Europe was called on to discharge toward the newly independent countries. Since, however, an acceptable settlement with EEC seemed impossible in the near future, the Council determined that EFTA should proceed with its own plans. In pursuance of this decision, the Ministers decided to establish a consultative committee, representative of all aspects of economic activity, including labor, to advise on all facets of the activity of the Association. Also considered at the meeting was the possibility of an additional 10 percent tariff reduction to take effect as of January 1, 1961, to keep pace with the EEC cut scheduled for that date, but the Council concluded that too little time had elapsed since the first 20 percent tariff reductions on July 1, 1960, to make any modification of the timetable feasible at this time; it resolved, nevertheless, to re-examine the question early in 1961. The Ministers noted with satisfaction that the original tariff cuts had gone into operation without difficulty, and reasserted that the object of EFTA was not the creation of an inward-looking preferential bloc—for example, no restrictions on trade with third countries had been introduced with the creation of the group. EFTA offered to all trading nations, whether producers of industrial or agricultural products, stated the Council, the opportunities of an expanding market.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"15 1","pages":"203 - 204"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/s002081830002470x","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44865358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coming to Terms: The Politics of Sovereign Bond Denomination","authors":"Cameron Ballard-Rosa, Layna Mosley, R. Wellhausen","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000357","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Governments interact strategically with sovereign bond market creditors: they make choices not only about how often and how much to borrow, but also under what terms. The denomination of debt, in domestic or foreign currency, is a critical part of these terms. The “original sin” logic has long predicted that creditors have little appetite for developing-country government debt issued in domestic currency. Our novel data, including bond issues by 131 countries in 240,000 primary market transactions between 1990 and 2016, suggest otherwise. Domestic-denominated bonds have come to dominate the market, although domestic-currency issuance often is accompanied by shorter bond maturities. We argue that ideologically rooted policy preferences play an important role in this unexpected trend in denomination. All else equal, right governments choose foreign denomination as a means of mitigating currency risk and thus minimizing borrowing costs. In contrast, left governments opt for the flexibility of domestic denomination, and they are better able to act on their preferences in the presence of risk-mitigating monetary institutions and macroeconomic stability. We find support for our argument that partisanship has a robust and enduring relationship with denomination outcomes, even in a marketplace in which domestic-denominated developing-country sovereign bonds have become the norm.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"32 - 69"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43136821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does More Equality for Women Mean Less War? Rethinking Sex and Gender Inequality and Political Violence","authors":"D. Cohen, S. Karim","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000333","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent world events, such as the rise of hypermasculine authoritarian leaders, have shown the importance of both sex and gender for understanding international politics. However, quantitative researchers of conflict have long relegated the study of sex and gender inequality as a cause of war to a specialized group of scholars, despite overwhelming evidence that the connections are profound and consequential. In this review essay, we demonstrate the tremendous progress made in this field by analyzing a wave of research that examines the relationships between sex and gender inequality and war. We divide this work into theories that emphasize strategy versus those that analyze structures. In addition, we focus on two aspects of this research agenda—specifying mechanisms that link sex and gender inequality to war, and leveraging data at multiple levels of analysis—to outline fruitful pathways forward for the broader international security research agenda. Ultimately, we argue that the study of the nexus of sex and gender inequality and war will enliven theoretical debates, illuminate new hypotheses, and enrich the policy discourse with robust evidence.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"414 - 444"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/S0020818321000333","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42836791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Learning to Predict Proliferation","authors":"N. Miller","doi":"10.1017/S0020818321000345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000345","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How effective are states at assessing and predicting the nuclear intentions of foreign countries? Drawing on close to 200 US assessments of foreign countries’ proliferation intentions between 1957 and 1966, this research note finds that close to 80 percent of testable US assessments were correct and that they shifted from highly inaccurate in the late 1950s to highly accurate in the 1960s. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, I conclude that learning from early failures led the intelligence community to achieve higher accuracy.","PeriodicalId":48388,"journal":{"name":"International Organization","volume":"76 1","pages":"487 - 507"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/S0020818321000345","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44006831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}