{"title":"Winners and losers from the world going green: Index of country-level readiness to energy transition","authors":"Igor Makarov , Elizaveta Smolovik","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global low-carbon energy transition affects different country groups unevenly, creating significant opportunities for some and exposing others to risks. To capture this asymmetry, we develop an index of readiness to energy transition (RET index) that ranks 133 countries according to their potential gains and losses. The index includes two dimensions: transition assets, which are exposed positively, i.e., clean energy potential, abundance in critical metals and minerals, and negatively, namely dependence on fossil fuels and fossil fuel intensive industries, carbon intensity of economies, as well as adaptation potential. The resulting ranking of countries provides useful insights into countries' standing in low-carbon energy transition. Most of developed countries gain from high adaptation potential and limited carbon-intensive transition assets, making them resilient to low-carbon transformation. China occupies a unique position, benefiting from strong clean energy potential and dominance in the global critical materials landscape. On the contrary, many emerging and developing economies face high transition risks due to fossil fuel dependency, high overall carbon intensity and relatively weak technological and institutional capacities. The RET index thus highlights these asymmetries, emphasizing the importance of targeted international support and differentiating mitigation ambition levels under just energy transition framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104548"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antonio C.P. Brasil Junior , Rafael C.F. Mendes , José Lavaquial
{"title":"Small (and not-so-small) villages in the Amazon: The challenge of access to electricity infrastructure","authors":"Antonio C.P. Brasil Junior , Rafael C.F. Mendes , José Lavaquial","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article analyzes electrification in small Amazonian villages, focusing on settlements of 1000–5000 inhabitants that face persistent deficits in basic services despite growing socio-economic complexity. To interpret this transitional condition, it introduces the concept of <em>embryonic urbanity</em>, which captures how emerging urban nuclei formulate collective demands for infrastructure, territorial inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Within this framework, electrification is shown to be a key driver of early urban consolidation and social development. The study then assesses renewable hybrid energy systems as alternatives to diesel-based generation in isolated grids. Simulation results using the platform HOMER-Pro indicate that hybridization could reduce annual diesel consumption by about 140.5 million liters, equivalent to 376.6 ktCO2e. These findings highlight hybrid systems as a strategic pathway for integrating universal access with decarbonization and resilient territorial development in the Amazon.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104550"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patrick Kayima , Henry Musoke Semakula , Charlotte Nakakaawa Jjunju , Hannington Wasswa , Patricia Kiggundu Nagawa , Frank Mugagga
{"title":"Gendered inequalities in hybrid energy access: Socially differentiated challenges on Uganda's Lake Victoria islands","authors":"Patrick Kayima , Henry Musoke Semakula , Charlotte Nakakaawa Jjunju , Hannington Wasswa , Patricia Kiggundu Nagawa , Frank Mugagga","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving universal access to clean energy is a global priority, however, remote island communities remain among the most underserved populations. This study addresses a critical gap in energy research by moving beyond technical evaluations to examine how social hierarchies shape energy experiences. Drawing on Bugala Island, as an empirical case, this study applies an intersectional gender framework to analyse the challenges associated with hybrid solar electricity systems. Using a mixed-methods design that integrates household surveys, key informant interviews and focus group discussions, this research identifies five core dimensions of energy burden: cost, technical reliability, safety and risk, service delivery, and accessibility. Quantitative results show that energy access is not socially neutral. Female-headed, low-income households face the highest financial burdens, while older women experience the greatest safety risks due to substandard infrastructure. Younger household heads and those with limited education were also significantly more likely to experience frequent energy-related disruptions. These findings demonstrate that technical energy transitions can reinforce existing social inequalities if the social dimensions are overlooked. The study advances energy research by showing that access must be evaluated through social equity rather than physical connectivity alone. Therefore, policy interventions such as targeted subsidies and local technician training are essential to ensure inclusive and sustainable off-grid energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104539"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145981361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From context to operationalization: Exploring chances for the integration of social scientific perspectives in life cycle assessments of energy technologies","authors":"Mareike Tippe","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is a well-established tool to assess the environmental impacts of products, services, and technologies. Despite of its standardization, the methodology lacks guidance and formalization for the consideration of behavioral effects impacting the energy consumption related to the usage of technologies. As digital and smart technologies are supposed to play a major role in the energy transition, a consideration of these effects is crucial for the comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by these technologies. In order to address the lack of formalized approaches for the integration of behavioral effects into LCA studies, a qualitative interview study with experts from the social sciences and LCA practice was set up, identifying challenges and chances for the interdisciplinary alignment of the LCA methodology with social scientific approaches. On the basis of the content analysis, the study highlights barriers for the transfer of knowledge between the disciplines and offers insights on challenges faced by practitioners (e.g. lack of time and financing resources or skepticism experienced by peers). Social scientific perspectives and recommendations expressed by the researchers were aligned with the standardized steps of an LCA, providing insights on possible contributions of the social scientific methods to a more comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by energy-using technologies. The interdisciplinary study thereby connects methodological and empirical insights from research practice, enabling the understanding of socio-technical and socio-environmental dependencies in order to assess environmental impacts of energy using technologies in a comprehensive way.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104558"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Racing against the clock: Modeling the global transition to renewable energy technologies","authors":"Alessandro Bessi , Mariangela Guidolin , Piero Manfredi","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Thirty years after the first UN conference of parties on global climate change (COP1), the global energy sector remains reliant on fossil fuels, with low- to zero-emission power sources struggling to take the lead in most national markets. Despite the sustained growth of solar and wind energy technologies (SWET) being confirmed in 2023, carbon emissions and climate constraints continue to rise, suggesting that a pathway toward net-zero emissions remains complex. Our analysis uses innovation diffusion models to offer an up-to-date perspective of the current co-evolution of SWET against its main fossil competitors, namely coal and natural gas energy technologies (CGET), across the 75 largest energy-consuming countries. Our model-based evidence suggests that the energy transition struggles in crowding-out traditional fossil fuels and therefore is hardly identifiable as a worldwide trend. Important achievements remain highly localized to only a few regions worldwide suggesting an uneven process, with still many barriers and needing public support as well as international cooperation. Model-based forward projections suggest that most countries will likely achieve the SWET-to-CGET parity well beyond the energy milestone of 2030. Current war scenarios, local crises and the declarations (as well as actions) of the new US administration about US energy policy, bring substantial uncertainty on the global perspectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104541"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From wind curtailment to decarbonising urban heat: Experimental governance and multi-system innovation in Zhangjiakou","authors":"Zhuohan Xie, Dan van der Horst, Matthew Lane","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how multiple socio-technical systems transform in tandem has become an important frontier in sustainability transitions research. While the multi-level perspective has evolved into the multi-system perspective to conceptualise cross-system co-evolution, current studies largely overlook the relational micro-dynamics through which coordination and learning are enacted. To address this gap, this paper integrates experimental governance with the multi-system perspective to investigate how local experimentation can drive both single-system transitions and multi-system alignment. Drawing on policy analysis and 22 semi-structured interviews, we examine the Zhangjiakou wind-to-heat pilot in northern China, where wind power, district heating, electricity trading and emerging digital sectors became increasingly interconnected. Our analysis identifies a five-phase transition trajectory: dual-system coupling, incumbent system transition, emerging system reform, multi-system interaction, and diffusion effects. Our results show that experiments can become coordination infrastructures that temporarily bridge fragmented governance structures, enabling heterogeneous actors to build trust, co-produce knowledge, and adapt strategies through negotiation and iterative learning. These micro-level processes actively construct cross-system linkages, allowing local experiments to evolve into institutional arrangements that support regional low-carbon industrial diversification and economic upgrading. This study contributes to transition theory by grounding the micro-foundations of multi-system transitions and showing how experimentation can help overcome fragmented governance structures by enabling state-orchestrated coordination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104561"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146079435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Justice in the spotlight: Do parliamentary debates shape Germany's energy transition?","authors":"Rabea Scholz , Johan Lilliestam","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the energy transition picks up pace, the side effects of energy policies are gaining political prominence. In recent years, the costs and, especially, the distributive effects of energy policy have climbed the political agenda, with debates increasingly focusing on the justice effects alongside the effectiveness of policy measures. Here, we explore the role of justice arguments in parliamentary energy policy debates and how they have affected legislation even before they affect the population. We do this for two cases of German energy policy by observing how parliamentarians debate the distributive justice effects of energy transition measures and tracing how their arguments affected legislation. We show that parliamentary debates, especially the more intense and controversial ones, featured strong use of justice arguments, and that both laws subsequently changed along the lines of several of those arguments. Simultaneously, we observe that debates were, in part, symbolic, signaling opposition rather than truly seeking to affect the laws. We conclude that justice-based argumentation is common and strong in parliamentary debates on energy policy, and that these arguments do affect legislation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104526"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145981398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From invention to mobility and from niches to global races: Organizational leadership in hydrogen- and lithium-powered transport","authors":"Fernando Moreno-Brieva , José David Romero-Puente","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global transition toward cleaner energy systems has positioned hydrogen- and lithium battery–based technologies as key enablers of sustainable transport. However, their comparative innovation dynamics remain poorly understood, as studies of this kind have been scarce, despite the strategic importance of both energy carriers for the decarbonization of mobility, industrial competitiveness, and long-term energy security. By examining both technologies within a unified analytical framework, this study offers novel comparative evidence on how organizational leadership and inventor mobility jointly shape their technological trajectories. To address this gap, the study conducts a quantitative patent-based analysis of innovation outcomes in hydrogen- and lithium–battery–powered transport, emphasizing the role of leading organizations in shaping these trajectories. Using data from the European Patent Office for 2010–2022, the study applies two complementary indicators to assess technological leadership, specialization, and inventor mobility as mechanisms of knowledge diffusion. The results show that leadership in both technologies is concentrated among firms headquartered in Germany, China, South Korea, Japan, and the United States, with marked differences across technological classes and subclasses. Moreover, the study shows that knowledge diffusion occurs primarily through the mobility of inventors across organizations, suggesting that human capital flows are a key driver of clean-technology transfer. The study concludes by outlining three plausible future scenarios—dominated respectively by lithium batteries, by hydrogen, or by their coexistence—and discusses their implications for sustainable innovation and for the long-term evolution of clean transport systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104543"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145981397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Phasing out diesel subsidies in Colombia: A social contract perspective on stakeholder consultations","authors":"Mauricio Böhl Gutierrez","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies is politically sensitive and often contested, particularly in countries where fuel subsidies form an integral part of the social contract between the state and society. This paper analyses Colombia's phase-out of diesel subsidies through a qualitative case study, drawing on 32 interviews with stakeholders from government, transport, business, academia, and civil society.</div><div>Using the social contract as an analytical framework, the study examines actors' perceptions of the phase-out process, with a specific focus on the government's responsibilities under the 3Ps of the social contract (Provision, Participation and Protection) in replacing diesel subsidies. Stakeholders from the passenger and freight transport subsectors view subsidies as an essential Provision within the social contract, particularly in a context of perceived institutional inefficiency and low trust in the government capacity. The government's offer to substitute diesel subsidies with alternative Provisions, such as new technologies in the long term, conflicts with the immediate Protection challenges faced by the sector. To phase out subsidies, the government would need to address the sector's priorities to build trust in its vision for a structural reform and to tackle deep-rooted, structural vulnerabilities in the subsectors that exacerbate dependence on fossil fuels. The study also reveals clientelist structures in Colombia, raising questions about the extent to which other societal groups are involved in the process (Participation) and would require support through mitigation policies (Provision). The study highlights trust-building, inclusive consultation, and structural sector reforms as critical factors in securing public support for subsidy phase-outs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104542"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145981337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mónika Rajcsányi-Molnár , István András , Márta Konczos Szombathelyi
{"title":"Public perceptions under the spotlight: The role of public communication in shaping acceptance and resistance towards nuclear energy and battery manufacturing in Hungary","authors":"Mónika Rajcsányi-Molnár , István András , Márta Konczos Szombathelyi","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2026.104531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The scope of the paper is the examination, comparison and analysis of the public perception of the nuclear energy and battery manufacturing sectors in Hungary with a focus on the role of public communication in the effectiveness of public acceptance. The study uses focus group discussions conducted in three cities in Hungary and analyses their results using thematic analysis. The study investigates the levels of knowledge of the respondents regarding the subject, their perceptions of sectoral benefits and risks, trust in various stakeholders, and the effect of public communication. These are revealed in eight coding frames, which provide a detailed map to the data on each research subtopic (dimensions, categories, subcategories, definitions, occurrence), while representative examples are provided in the Results. The study reveals complex knowledge levels on both investigated sectors, with nuclear energy seen as providing for energy safety and being good for the environment, whereas battery manufacturing was associated with economic profit and environmental pollution. Trust in the government and industry, as well as the credibility of the scientific community significantly differed between the two sectors. We can conclude that media communication and corporate public communication play a critical role in perception. Furthermore, to gain confidence in battery manufacturing, targeted sensitive sector frameworks should be used to address concerns and to emphasize benefits to the public.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104531"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}