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Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported 在误报参与情况时确定计划效益
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3079
Denni Tommasi, Lina Zhang
{"title":"Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported","authors":"Denni Tommasi,&nbsp;Lina Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3079","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3079","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In cases of noncompliance with an assigned treatment, estimates of causal effects typically rely on instrumental variables (IV). However, when participation is also misreported, the IV estimand may become a nonconvex combination of local average treatment effects that fails to satisfy even a minimal condition for being causal. The aim of our paper is to generalize the MR-LATE approach. This is an alternative IV estimand that is more robust in cases of noncompliance and nondifferential misclassification of the treatment variable. Our generalization is threefold: First, we incorporate discrete and multiple-discrete instrument(s); second, we consider the use of instrument(s) under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition; third, we provide a general inferential procedure. Under relatively stringent assumptions, MR-LATE is either identical to the IV estimand or less biased than the naïve IV estimand. Under less stringent assumptions, the MR-LATE estimand can identify the sign of the IV estimand. We conclude with the use of a dedicated Stata command, <span>ivreg2m,</span> to assess the return on education in the United Kingdom.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1123-1148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141528824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach 测试基于调查的密度预期差异：组合数据方法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3080
Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas, Geoff Kenny
{"title":"Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach","authors":"Jonas Dovern,&nbsp;Alexander Glas,&nbsp;Geoff Kenny","doi":"10.1002/jae.3080","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3080","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach that involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computationally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the US Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1104-1122"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3080","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The propagation of business expectations within the European Union 欧盟内部商业期望的传播
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3075
Anja Sebbesen, Harald Oberhofer
{"title":"The propagation of business expectations within the European Union","authors":"Anja Sebbesen,&nbsp;Harald Oberhofer","doi":"10.1002/jae.3075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3075","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper empirically investigates the propagation of firm expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine information from EU-wide official business surveys with input–output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input–output linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillover effects in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1082-1103"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3075","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates 产出缺口估算的稳定性和经济相关性
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3062
Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, Andrea Stella
{"title":"The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates","authors":"Alessandro Barbarino,&nbsp;Travis J. Berge,&nbsp;Andrea Stella","doi":"10.1002/jae.3062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3062","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We provide a comprehensive comparison of real-time output gap estimates, with the aim of understanding this real-time instability. Using a statistical decomposition, we find that including Okun's law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1065-1081"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantiles of the gain distribution of an early childhood intervention 儿童早期干预的收益分配量值
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3071
Erich Battistin, Carlos Lamarche, Enrico Rettore
{"title":"Quantiles of the gain distribution of an early childhood intervention","authors":"Erich Battistin,&nbsp;Carlos Lamarche,&nbsp;Enrico Rettore","doi":"10.1002/jae.3071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3071","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We investigate the distribution of gains among participants in the Infant Health and Development Program, an understudied randomized controlled trial that targets infants with low birth weight. Our primary focus is on assessing the effects in cognitive and health outcomes within distinct subgroups, which we define based on the outcomes that would occur in the absence of program participation. We propose a strategy to estimate the distribution of gains from the program by using anthropometrics measurements taken at birth, under the assumption that potential outcomes depend on underlying latent factors explaining neonatal health. Our findings reveal that the enhancements in cognitive and health outcomes at 36 months are not uniformly distributed among program participants. The variability in these effects can be attributed to several factors, including neonatal health, post-natal shocks, and family income.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1045-1064"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Featured Cover 精选封面
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3077
Michael Bates, Seolah Kim
{"title":"Featured Cover","authors":"Michael Bates,&nbsp;Seolah Kim","doi":"10.1002/jae.3077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3077","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cover image is based on the Research Article <i>Estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand in correlated random coefficient models with endogeneity</i> by Michael Bates and Seolah Kim https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3042.\u0000\u0000 <figure>\u0000 <div><picture>\u0000 <source></source></picture><p></p>\u0000 </div>\u0000 </figure></p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3077","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141315362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robots at work? Pitfalls of industry-level data 机器人在工作？行业数据的陷阱
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3073
Karim Bekhtiar, Benjamin Bittschi, Richard Sellner
{"title":"Robots at work? Pitfalls of industry-level data","authors":"Karim Bekhtiar,&nbsp;Benjamin Bittschi,&nbsp;Richard Sellner","doi":"10.1002/jae.3073","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3073","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In their seminal paper, Graetz and Michaels (2018) find that robots increase productivity, lower output prices, and adversely affect the share of low-skilled labor. We demonstrate that these effects are partly driven by the sample composition and argue that focusing on manufacturing industries yields more credible results regarding the overall economic effects of robotization. The results show that focusing on robotizing industries leads to a sizable drop of the productivity effects, halving the effect size for labor productivity. Pronounced consequences from the sample choice occur for wage effects that are reversed from significantly positive into significantly negative. Controlling for demographic workforce characteristics proves to be essential for the significant labor productivity effects and leads to the reversal for wages.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1180-1189"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141384157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating separable matching models 估算可分离匹配模型
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3061
Alfred Galichon, Bernard Salanié
{"title":"Estimating separable matching models","authors":"Alfred Galichon,&nbsp;Bernard Salanié","doi":"10.1002/jae.3061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3061","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Most recent empirical applications of matching with transferable utility have imposed a natural restriction: that the joint surplus be <i>separable</i> in the sources of unobserved heterogeneity. We propose here two simple methods to estimate models in this class. The first method is a minimum distance estimator that relies on the generalized entropy of matching. The second applies to the more special but popular Choo and Siow model, which reformulates as a generalized linear model with two-way fixed effects. Neither method requires solving for the stable matching. Both methods are easy to apply and perform very well.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1021-1044"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The US structural transformation and regional convergence: Racial heterogeneity 美国的结构转型和地区趋同：种族异质性
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3074
Minki Kim, Munseob Lee
{"title":"The US structural transformation and regional convergence: Racial heterogeneity","authors":"Minki Kim,&nbsp;Munseob Lee","doi":"10.1002/jae.3074","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Structural transformation and regional convergence in US income are both longstanding trends. Caselli and Coleman (2001) documented that 60% of regional convergence between the US South and North from 1940 to 1990 was due to structural transformation. Our replication confirms these robust findings. Examining black and white populations separately, we find the magnitude of regional income convergence was much larger for the black workers, and that structural transformation explains most regional income convergence for white workers but only 30% for black workers. Extending the analysis until 2020, however, we observe income convergence among black workers and divergence among white workers. Structural transformation's role in income convergence or divergence from 1990 to 2020 is negligible.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1172-1179"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141271875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects 页岩油繁荣与美国经济：溢出效应和时变效应
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3059
Hilde C. Bjørnland, Julia Skretting
{"title":"The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects","authors":"Hilde C. Bjørnland,&nbsp;Julia Skretting","doi":"10.1002/jae.3059","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state-level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non-oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non-oil) employment in most oil-producing and some manufacturing-intensive US states increase following an oil-specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1000-1020"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141102152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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