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Policy Evaluation with Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates in the United States 具有非线性趋势结果的政策评估：美国Covid-19疫苗接种率
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3137
Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
{"title":"Policy Evaluation with Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates in the United States","authors":"Lynn Bergeland Morgan,&nbsp;Peter C. B. Phillips,&nbsp;Donggyu Sul","doi":"10.1002/jae.3137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3137","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper discusses pitfalls in two way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions when the outcome variables contain nonlinear and possibly stochastic trend components. If a policy change shifts trend paths of outcome variables, TWFE estimation can distort results and invalidate inference, especially in a context of evolving policy decisions. A robust solution is proposed by allowing for dynamic club membership empirically using a relative convergence test procedure. The determinants of respective club memberships are assessed by panel ordered logit regressions. The approach allows for policy evolution and shifts in outcomes according to a convergence cluster framework with transitions over time and the possibility of eventual convergence to a single cluster as policy impacts mature. The long run impact of a policy can thus be examined via its impact on convergence club membership. An application to new weekly US Covid-19 vaccination policy data reveals that federal level vaccine mandates produced a merger of state vaccination rates into a single convergence cluster by mid-September 2021.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"697-714"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correlated Errors Challenge Vulnerable Growth 相关错误挑战脆弱增长
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3136
Wei Long, Liang Peng, Bingduo Yang
{"title":"Correlated Errors Challenge Vulnerable Growth","authors":"Wei Long,&nbsp;Liang Peng,&nbsp;Bingduo Yang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3136","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We examine the impact of correlated errors on findings regarding fluctuations in US GDP growth, which are primarily driven by the lower quantiles of the distribution as predicted by financial conditions. A proposed zero-correlation test reveals the presence of correlated residuals in the quantile regression, introducing endogeneity and raising concerns about the validity of the previous analysis. In response, we extend the model by including two additional lags of predictors. The revised specification shows that financial conditions alone no longer significantly predict lower-tail GDP growth, although their joint effect with lagged values remains significant. These results challenge earlier conclusions about the sensitivity of GDP growth to financial conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"715-721"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Manipulation Test for Multidimensional RDD 多维RDD操作测试
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3135
Federico Crippa
{"title":"Manipulation Test for Multidimensional RDD","authors":"Federico Crippa","doi":"10.1002/jae.3135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3135","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The causal inference model for the regression discontinuity design (RDD) relies on assumptions that imply the continuity of the density of the assignment (running) variable. The test for this implication is commonly referred to as the manipulation test and is regularly reported in applied research to strengthen the design's validity. The multidimensional RDD (MRDD) extends the RDD to contexts where treatment assignment depends on several running variables. This paper introduces a manipulation test for the MRDD. First, it develops a theoretical model for causal inference with the MRDD, which is used to derive a testable implication on the conditional marginal densities of the running variables. Then, it constructs the test for the implication based on a quadratic form of a vector of statistics separately computed for each marginal density. Finally, the proposed test is compared with alternative procedures commonly employed in applied research.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"685-696"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Effects and Trade Elasticities With the Structural Gravity Model 利用结构引力模型解锁估算国别效应和贸易弹性的新方法
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3133
Rebecca Freeman, Mario Larch, Angelos Theodorakopoulos, Yoto V. Yotov
{"title":"Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Effects and Trade Elasticities With the Structural Gravity Model","authors":"Rebecca Freeman,&nbsp;Mario Larch,&nbsp;Angelos Theodorakopoulos,&nbsp;Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1002/jae.3133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3133","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose new methods to identify the impact of country-specific characteristics, policies, and trade costs on bilateral trade flows within the structural gravity framework. We complement theory with a simple two-stage estimating procedure and offer proof of concept by quantifying the impact of country-specific research and development (R&amp;D) expenditure on trade. Our results suggest a positive relationship overall but a larger impact of R&amp;D on international (versus domestic) trade. Importantly, our methods deliver trade elasticity estimates without the need for price or tariff data, and we highlight this feature by obtaining aggregate and sectoral trade elasticity estimates, including for services.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"669-684"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3133","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Partial Identification Approach to Identifying the Determinants of Human Capital Accumulation: An Application to Teachers 人力资本积累决定因素的部分识别方法——以教师为例
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3131
Nirav Mehta
{"title":"A Partial Identification Approach to Identifying the Determinants of Human Capital Accumulation: An Application to Teachers","authors":"Nirav Mehta","doi":"10.1002/jae.3131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3131","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper views career growth in teacher quality through the lens of human capital theory to understand the roles of on-the-job training (OJT) and learning by doing (LBD) in human capital formation. If OJT is the primary determinant of human capital, incentive pay policies could create a <i>dynamic multitasking</i> problem, leading teachers to reduce their human capital investments, thereby lowering future student achievement. In contrast, teacher human capital and future achievement would both increase if LBD were the dominant force. To explore this, I develop explicit bounds on components of a human capital production function allowing for both channels, which I estimate using experimental variation from publicly available data from a teacher incentive pay experiment in Kenya. I find that LBD is present and also estimate an informative upper bound on the OJT component. This suggests that dynamic multitasking, while theoretically relevant, may have limited practical significance, at least in this context.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"639-654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3131","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prediction Intervals of Panel Data Approach for Programme Evaluation 节目评估面板数据方法的预测区间
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3134
Hongyi Jiang, Xingyu Li, Yan Shen, Qiankun Zhou
{"title":"Prediction Intervals of Panel Data Approach for Programme Evaluation","authors":"Hongyi Jiang,&nbsp;Xingyu Li,&nbsp;Yan Shen,&nbsp;Qiankun Zhou","doi":"10.1002/jae.3134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3134","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We consider the inference on individual and time specific treatment effects on the treated within the framework of panel data approach for programme evaluation. We formulate the target problem as constructing prediction intervals for high-dimensional linear regressions with weakly dependent data. Post-LASSO OLS is used for estimation, while dependent wild bootstrap and simple residual bootstrap are used for the construction of prediction intervals. The proposed prediction intervals are proved to have asymptotic validity as the number of pretreatment times goes to infinity. In the proof, we also establish the model selection consistency of LASSO for dependent data and under bootstrap measure, which may be of independent interest. Monte Carlo experiments illustrate that our method outperforms existing methods in finite samples under a wide variety of data generating processes except nonstationary data. Two empirical applications are also provided.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"655-668"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sensitivity of Policy-Relevant Treatment Parameters to Violations of Monotonicity 策略相关处理参数对单调性违反的敏感性
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3132
Luther Yap
{"title":"Sensitivity of Policy-Relevant Treatment Parameters to Violations of Monotonicity","authors":"Luther Yap","doi":"10.1002/jae.3132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3132","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper proposes a method to bound policy-relevant treatment parameters (PRTPs) when the monotonicity assumption that the IV affects individuals' treatment response in the same direction is weakened. The bounding framework uses the proportion of defiers relative to compliers as a sensitivity parameter and yields an identified set that is an interval. The method is illustrated in an empirical application where the same-sex instrument was used to calculate the effect of having a third child on labor force participation. I find that bounds are informative only for small violations in monotonicity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"627-638"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peer Effects in Binary Outcomes: Strategic Complementarity and Taste for Conformity With Endogenous Networks 二元结果中的同伴效应：战略互补性和内源性网络的一致性
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3128
Mathieu Lambotte
{"title":"Peer Effects in Binary Outcomes: Strategic Complementarity and Taste for Conformity With Endogenous Networks","authors":"Mathieu Lambotte","doi":"10.1002/jae.3128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces a generalized model of peer effects for binary outcomes, based on a network game that accounts for strategic complementarity (influence of the number of peers that select the same action) and conformity to social norms (penalizing deviations from the average peers' action). We derive conditions for a unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium under rational expectations about peers' behavior. Unobserved individual heterogeneity affecting network formation and peer effects is addressed nonparametrically using a control function nested pseudo likelihood estimator, whose asymptotic properties are established. The model is applied to microfinance participation in India.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 6","pages":"608-626"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combining Proxies and Narrative Sign Restrictions: Revisiting the Effects of Technology Shocks 代理与叙事符号约束的结合：对技术冲击效应的再审视
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3129
Yang Yang, Ren Zhang
{"title":"Combining Proxies and Narrative Sign Restrictions: Revisiting the Effects of Technology Shocks","authors":"Yang Yang,&nbsp;Ren Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3129","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes a novel integration of the proxy structural vector autoregression approach with narrative sign restrictions to identify multiple shocks with multiple instrumental variables. We show that this combination leads to informative inferences on shock effects through both analytical demonstrations and Monte Carlo simulations. Applying this method to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, we find that anticipated shocks account for over 45% of stock price variation but only about 13% of total factor productivity (TFP) fluctuations. The majority of TFP variations are driven by unanticipated technology shocks and measurement errors.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 5","pages":"554-568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3129","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144767408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting Group Differences in High-Dimensional Choices: Method and Application to Congressional Speech 回顾高维选择中的群体差异：方法及其在国会演讲中的应用
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3125
Paul Hofmarcher, Jan Vavra, Sourav Adhikari, Bettina Grün
{"title":"Revisiting Group Differences in High-Dimensional Choices: Method and Application to Congressional Speech","authors":"Paul Hofmarcher,&nbsp;Jan Vavra,&nbsp;Sourav Adhikari,&nbsp;Bettina Grün","doi":"10.1002/jae.3125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gentzkow, Shapiro, and Taddy, <i>Econometrica</i> 87, no. 4, 2019 (henceforth GST), use a supervised text-based regression model to assess changes in partisanship in US congressional speech over time. Their estimates imply that partisanship is far greater in recent years than in the past and that it increased sharply in the early 1990s. The paper at hand provides a replication in the wide sense of GST by complementing their analysis in three ways. First, we propose an alternative unsupervised language model, which combines ideas of topic models and ideal point models, to analyze the change in partisanship over time. We apply this model to the Senate speech data used in GST ranging from 1981 to 2017. Using our model, we replicate their results on the specific evolution of partisanship. Second, our model provides additional insights such as the data-driven estimation of evolvement of topical contents over time. Third, we identify key phrases of partisanship on topic level.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"40 5","pages":"577-588"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3125","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144768110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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