Journal of Applied Econometrics最新文献_第2页

Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 利用借记卡交易数据对挪威家庭消费进行预测

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3076

Knut Are Aastveit, Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen, Kjersti Næss Torstensen

{"title":"Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data","authors":"Knut Are Aastveit, Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen, Kjersti Næss Torstensen","doi":"10.1002/jae.3076","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3076","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are not subject to revisions and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various quantile mixed-data sampling (QMIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4–2019Q4. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate nowcast of 2020Q1, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We further show how debit card data have been useful in nowcasting consumption during the four subsequent quarters.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 7","pages":"1220-1244"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3076","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Agglomerative hierarchical clustering for selecting valid instrumental variables 用于选择有效工具变量的聚合分层聚类法

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3078

Nicolas Apfel, Xiaoran Liang

引用次数: 0

Part-time subsidies and maternal reemployment: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis 兼职补贴与产妇再就业：来自差异分析的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3072

Franziska Zimmert, Michael Zimmert

{"title":"Part-time subsidies and maternal reemployment: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis","authors":"Franziska Zimmert, Michael Zimmert","doi":"10.1002/jae.3072","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Employment interruptions of mothers are still one of the main causes for different labour market outcomes between women and men. Employment subsidies can incentivise mothers to shorten employment interruptions after childbirth. We examine a German parental leave reform incentivising an early return to part-time work. Exploiting the exogenous variation defined by the child's birthday, we apply unconditional difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation using administrative data. Machine learning augmented DiD estimation shows that our findings are robust to the inclusion of a large dictionary of potential covariates. Additionally, we estimate conditional effects in the DiD setting. Our results show that being eligible to the new regime yields positive average employment effects that are mainly driven by part-time employment. In particular, the increased attractiveness of part-time work does not cannibalise full-time employment. The policy creates heterogeneous incentives depending on the opportunity costs of working part time: especially mothers with middle income and prior part-time workers respond to the reform. Besides, diverging results for East and West Germany hint at the potential of a change in social norms.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1149-1171"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141549220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explaining the decline of China's labor share: A wide replication of Oberfield and Raval (2021) 解释中国劳动力份额的下降：奥伯菲尔德和拉瓦尔（2021 年）的广泛复制

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3082

Hong Yang, Wen Zhang

引用次数: 0

Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported 在误报参与情况时确定计划效益

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3079

Denni Tommasi, Lina Zhang

{"title":"Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported","authors":"Denni Tommasi, Lina Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3079","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3079","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In cases of noncompliance with an assigned treatment, estimates of causal effects typically rely on instrumental variables (IV). However, when participation is also misreported, the IV estimand may become a nonconvex combination of local average treatment effects that fails to satisfy even a minimal condition for being causal. The aim of our paper is to generalize the MR-LATE approach. This is an alternative IV estimand that is more robust in cases of noncompliance and nondifferential misclassification of the treatment variable. Our generalization is threefold: First, we incorporate discrete and multiple-discrete instrument(s); second, we consider the use of instrument(s) under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition; third, we provide a general inferential procedure. Under relatively stringent assumptions, MR-LATE is either identical to the IV estimand or less biased than the naïve IV estimand. Under less stringent assumptions, the MR-LATE estimand can identify the sign of the IV estimand. We conclude with the use of a dedicated Stata command, <span>ivreg2m,</span> to assess the return on education in the United Kingdom.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1123-1148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141528824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach 测试基于调查的密度预期差异：组合数据方法

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3080

Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas, Geoff Kenny

引用次数: 0

The propagation of business expectations within the European Union 欧盟内部商业期望的传播

IF 2.3 3区经济学

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3075

Anja Sebbesen, Harald Oberhofer

引用次数: 0

The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates 产出缺口估算的稳定性和经济相关性