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Your Season of Birth Tells much of you and your Background European Edition 你的出生季节告诉你很多关于你和你的背景欧洲版
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70020
Domenico Depalo
{"title":"Your Season of Birth Tells much of you and your Background European Edition","authors":"Domenico Depalo","doi":"10.1002/jae.70020","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>I adapt the approach in Buckles and Hungerman (2013) to show that in several European Union (EU) countries, between 2004 and 2020, the characteristics of the mothers giving birth in different quarters are significantly different. An implication of this finding is that quarter of birth is not a valid instrument in several applications where it has been used, e.g. return to education, even within the EU context. Beyond standard methods, partial identification techniques may help address this limitation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"195-202"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147570305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Earnings Dynamics, Inequality, and Firm Heterogeneity 盈余动态、不平等和企业异质性
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70024
Paul Bingley, Lorenzo Cappellari
{"title":"Earnings Dynamics, Inequality, and Firm Heterogeneity","authors":"Paul Bingley,&nbsp;Lorenzo Cappellari","doi":"10.1002/jae.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Studies of individual earnings dynamics typically overlook firm heterogeneity, while worker and firm decompositions of earnings inequality often neglect the life cycle. We study firm effects in individual earnings dynamics for the Italian private sector population, using the covariance structure of co-worker earnings for identification. We allow for dynamics of both worker and firm effects, as well as worker-firm sorting and worker segregation. When workers are young, firm and worker heterogeneity explain similar shares of earnings inequality; however, over the life cycle, workers account for most of the inequality. Sorting is substantial, especially among younger workers. Segregation accounts for most of the earnings inequality between firms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"169-194"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling Plant-Product Productivity via First-Order Conditions: Robust Replication of Orr (2022) 通过一阶条件揭示植物产品生产率：Orr的鲁棒复制（2022）
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70033
Joonkyo Hong, Davide Luparello
{"title":"Unveiling Plant-Product Productivity via First-Order Conditions: Robust Replication of Orr (2022)","authors":"Joonkyo Hong,&nbsp;Davide Luparello","doi":"10.1002/jae.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We assess the replicability of Orr's (2022) method for estimating within-plant productivity across product lines, which combines demand estimation with cost minimization. The original study uses input price shocks in other output markets as instrumental variables, with exclusion restrictions based on downstream purchase shares. Reconstructing the original dataset of Indian machinery producers from 2000–2007, we reproduce the main productivity patterns and demonstrate their robustness to variations in the exclusion threshold. The main results remain robust in extended samples (2010–2019, 2000–2019) when calibrating demand parameters to Orr's (2022) estimates for 2000–2007, as estimation on these extended periods yields inadmissible demand systems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"216-222"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation 常见和特殊的通货膨胀
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70023
Hie Joo Ahn, Matteo Luciani
{"title":"Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation","authors":"Hie Joo Ahn,&nbsp;Matteo Luciani","doi":"10.1002/jae.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We disentangle price changes due to economy-wide shocks from those driven by idiosyncratic shocks by estimating a two-regime dynamic factor model with dynamic loadings on a new large dataset of finely disaggregated monthly personal consumption expenditures price inflation indexes from 1959 through 2024. We find that up to the mid-1990s and after the COVID-19 pandemic, common shocks were the primary driver of US inflation dynamics and had long-lasting effects. In contrast, in the intermediate period, idiosyncratic shocks were the main driver, and common shocks had short-lived effects.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"156-168"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The PCDID Approach to Treatment Effects Estimation: A Further Investigation PCDID方法在治疗效果评估中的进一步研究
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70022
Tilman Bretschneider, Joakim Westerlund
{"title":"The PCDID Approach to Treatment Effects Estimation: A Further Investigation","authors":"Tilman Bretschneider,&nbsp;Joakim Westerlund","doi":"10.1002/jae.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the present paper, we study the so-called “PCDID” approach to treatment effects estimation in panels with interactive effects where the factors represent trends whose effect need not be parallel across the cross-sectional units. Our interest in this step-wise approach originates with the observation that the interactive effects are ignored in the first step, which should not be possible without affecting subsequent steps. We confirm that the estimated second-step factors are inconsistent in the empirically relevant scenario where the included covariates are correlated with the true factors. Interestingly enough, though, fixed effects demeaning, which is in theory unnecessary since fixed effects are special interactive effects, is shown to restore consistency of the final-step average treatment effects estimate; however, only under special circumstances. As a general solution to the inconsistency of the estimated factors, we propose an iterated PCDID version.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"203-208"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling Plant-Product Productivity via First-Order Conditions: Robust Replication of Orr (2022) 通过一阶条件揭示植物产品生产率：Orr的鲁棒复制（2022）
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70033
Joonkyo Hong, Davide Luparello
{"title":"Unveiling Plant-Product Productivity via First-Order Conditions: Robust Replication of Orr (2022)","authors":"Joonkyo Hong,&nbsp;Davide Luparello","doi":"10.1002/jae.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We assess the replicability of Orr's (2022) method for estimating within-plant productivity across product lines, which combines demand estimation with cost minimization. The original study uses input price shocks in other output markets as instrumental variables, with exclusion restrictions based on downstream purchase shares. Reconstructing the original dataset of Indian machinery producers from 2000–2007, we reproduce the main productivity patterns and demonstrate their robustness to variations in the exclusion threshold. The main results remain robust in extended samples (2010–2019, 2000–2019) when calibrating demand parameters to Orr's (2022) estimates for 2000–2007, as estimation on these extended periods yields inadmissible demand systems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"216-222"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147568073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The PCDID Approach to Treatment Effects Estimation: A Further Investigation PCDID方法在治疗效果评估中的进一步研究
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70022
Tilman Bretschneider, Joakim Westerlund
{"title":"The PCDID Approach to Treatment Effects Estimation: A Further Investigation","authors":"Tilman Bretschneider,&nbsp;Joakim Westerlund","doi":"10.1002/jae.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the present paper, we study the so-called “PCDID” approach to treatment effects estimation in panels with interactive effects where the factors represent trends whose effect need not be parallel across the cross-sectional units. Our interest in this step-wise approach originates with the observation that the interactive effects are ignored in the first step, which should not be possible without affecting subsequent steps. We confirm that the estimated second-step factors are inconsistent in the empirically relevant scenario where the included covariates are correlated with the true factors. Interestingly enough, though, fixed effects demeaning, which is in theory unnecessary since fixed effects are special interactive effects, is shown to restore consistency of the final-step average treatment effects estimate; however, only under special circumstances. As a general solution to the inconsistency of the estimated factors, we propose an iterated PCDID version.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"203-208"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time 实时预测天然气价格
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70018
Christiane Baumeister, Florian Huber, Thomas K. Lee, Francesco Ravazzolo
{"title":"Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time","authors":"Christiane Baumeister,&nbsp;Florian Huber,&nbsp;Thomas K. Lee,&nbsp;Francesco Ravazzolo","doi":"10.1002/jae.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecastability of the real price of natural gas in the United States at the monthly frequency considering a universe of models that differ in complexity and economic content. We find that considerable reductions in mean-squared prediction error relative to a no-change benchmark can be achieved in real time for horizons of up to 2 years. A particularly promising model is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes the fundamental determinants of supply and demand for natural gas. To capture real-time data constraints of these and other predictors, we assemble a rich database of historical vintages from multiple sources. We also compare our model-based forecasts to model-free forecasts provided by experts and futures markets. Given that no single forecasting method dominates, we show that combining forecasts from individual models selected in real time using the model confidence set as a novel criterion for dynamic model selection delivers the most accurate forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"139-155"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Earnings Dynamics, Inequality, and Firm Heterogeneity 盈余动态、不平等和企业异质性
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70024
Paul Bingley, Lorenzo Cappellari
{"title":"Earnings Dynamics, Inequality, and Firm Heterogeneity","authors":"Paul Bingley,&nbsp;Lorenzo Cappellari","doi":"10.1002/jae.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Studies of individual earnings dynamics typically overlook firm heterogeneity, while worker and firm decompositions of earnings inequality often neglect the life cycle. We study firm effects in individual earnings dynamics for the Italian private sector population, using the covariance structure of co-worker earnings for identification. We allow for dynamics of both worker and firm effects, as well as worker-firm sorting and worker segregation. When workers are young, firm and worker heterogeneity explain similar shares of earnings inequality; however, over the life cycle, workers account for most of the inequality. Sorting is substantial, especially among younger workers. Segregation accounts for most of the earnings inequality between firms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"169-194"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Ancient Origins of Gender Inequality 重新审视性别不平等的古代起源
IF 3.1 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/jae.70032
Trung V. Vu
{"title":"Revisiting the Ancient Origins of Gender Inequality","authors":"Trung V. Vu","doi":"10.1002/jae.70032","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study re-examines the long-term effect of traditional plough use on contemporary gender roles, as originally advanced by Alesina, Giuliano and Nunn [<i>Quarterly Journal of Economics</i> (2013) Vol. 128, pp. 469–530]. The findings demonstrate that the reduced-form relationship between historical plough adoption and female empowerment is robust to implementing a falsification test, using alternative proxies for gender roles, and accounting for potential selection bias from unobservables and spatial dependence. Additional evidence indicates that ancestral plough adoption reinforced the persistence of gender-biased norms, reflected in oral traditions, that continue to shape present-day gender inequality. However, the intergenerational transmission of these norms is weaker in societies whose ancestors were exposed to unstable climatic environments between 500 and 1900 <span>ce</span>, suggesting that ancestral instability constrained the cultural persistence of plough-induced gender roles.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 2","pages":"209-215"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.70032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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