A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation

IF 3.1 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Martín Almuzara, Richard Audoly, Davide Melcangi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth.

衡量工资通胀趋势
我们扩展了迄今为止用于研究价格通胀的时间序列模型,并将其应用于包含工人小时工资信息的微观数据集。我们构建了一个衡量名义工资总额增长的指标,它(i)滤除噪音和非常短暂的变动,(ii)量化了工资总额动态的特殊因素的重要性,以及(iii)与劳动力市场紧张程度密切相关,这与现有的工资通胀指标不同。我们表明,我们的测量是工资压力的可靠实时指标,也是未来工资增长的良好预测指标。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
4.80%
发文量
63
期刊介绍: The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
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