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Medical marijuana legalization and parenting behaviors: An analysis of the time use of parents 医用大麻合法化与养育行为：对父母使用时间的分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3084
Cynthia Bansak, Jun Hyung Kim
{"title":"Medical marijuana legalization and parenting behaviors: An analysis of the time use of parents","authors":"Cynthia Bansak,&nbsp;Jun Hyung Kim","doi":"10.1002/jae.3084","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3084","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Can access to medical marijuana improve parenting? We examine the consequences of state-level medical marijuana legalization (MML) on parents' time use. Medical marijuana may increase parenting time by improving parents' health but only if parents do not abuse marijuana. We find that MML increases parenting time, with bigger impacts for those less likely to abuse marijuana. The effects correspond to 12.56% of the gap in active childcare and 8.92% of the gap in passive childcare by parents' education level. MML also reduces inactive time and increases sleep, consistent with medical marijuana's health benefits.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 7","pages":"1245-1259"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141649640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of plough agriculture on gender roles: A machine learning approach 犁耕农业对性别角色的影响：机器学习方法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3083
Anna Baiardi, Andrea A. Naghi
{"title":"The effect of plough agriculture on gender roles: A machine learning approach","authors":"Anna Baiardi,&nbsp;Andrea A. Naghi","doi":"10.1002/jae.3083","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3083","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper undertakes a replication in a wide sense of a recent study that examines the relationship between historical plough agriculture and current gender roles. We revisit the main research question with recently developed causal machine learning methods, which allow researchers to model the relationship of covariates with the treatment and the outcomes in a more flexible way, while also including interactions and nonlinearities that were not considered in the original analysis. Our results suggest an even larger negative effect of the historical plough adoption on female labor force participation than what the original analysis found. The paper highlights the benefits of using causal machine learning methods in applied empirical economics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 7","pages":"1396-1402"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3083","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data 利用借记卡交易数据对挪威家庭消费进行预测
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3076
Knut Are Aastveit, Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen, Kjersti Næss Torstensen
{"title":"Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data","authors":"Knut Are Aastveit,&nbsp;Tuva Marie Fastbø,&nbsp;Eleonora Granziera,&nbsp;Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen,&nbsp;Kjersti Næss Torstensen","doi":"10.1002/jae.3076","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3076","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are not subject to revisions and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various quantile mixed-data sampling (QMIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4–2019Q4. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate nowcast of 2020Q1, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We further show how debit card data have been useful in nowcasting consumption during the four subsequent quarters.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 7","pages":"1220-1244"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3076","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agglomerative hierarchical clustering for selecting valid instrumental variables 用于选择有效工具变量的聚合分层聚类法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3078
Nicolas Apfel, Xiaoran Liang
{"title":"Agglomerative hierarchical clustering for selecting valid instrumental variables","authors":"Nicolas Apfel,&nbsp;Xiaoran Liang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3078","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3078","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose a procedure that combines hierarchical clustering with a test of overidentifying restrictions for selecting valid instrumental variables (IV) from a large set of IVs. Some of these IVs may be invalid in that they fail the exclusion restriction. We show that if the largest group of IVs is valid, our method achieves oracle properties. Unlike existing techniques, our work deals with multiple endogenous regressors. Simulation results suggest an advantageous performance of the method in various settings. The method is applied to estimating the effect of immigration on wages.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 7","pages":"1201-1219"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3078","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Part-time subsidies and maternal reemployment: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis 兼职补贴与产妇再就业：来自差异分析的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3072
Franziska Zimmert, Michael Zimmert
{"title":"Part-time subsidies and maternal reemployment: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis","authors":"Franziska Zimmert,&nbsp;Michael Zimmert","doi":"10.1002/jae.3072","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3072","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Employment interruptions of mothers are still one of the main causes for different labour market outcomes between women and men. Employment subsidies can incentivise mothers to shorten employment interruptions after childbirth. We examine a German parental leave reform incentivising an early return to part-time work. Exploiting the exogenous variation defined by the child's birthday, we apply unconditional difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation using administrative data. Machine learning augmented DiD estimation shows that our findings are robust to the inclusion of a large dictionary of potential covariates. Additionally, we estimate conditional effects in the DiD setting. Our results show that being eligible to the new regime yields positive average employment effects that are mainly driven by part-time employment. In particular, the increased attractiveness of part-time work does not cannibalise full-time employment. The policy creates heterogeneous incentives depending on the opportunity costs of working part time: especially mothers with middle income and prior part-time workers respond to the reform. Besides, diverging results for East and West Germany hint at the potential of a change in social norms.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1149-1171"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141549220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Explaining the decline of China's labor share: A wide replication of Oberfield and Raval (2021) 解释中国劳动力份额的下降：奥伯菲尔德和拉瓦尔（2021 年）的广泛复制
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3082
Hong Yang, Wen Zhang
{"title":"Explaining the decline of China's labor share: A wide replication of Oberfield and Raval (2021)","authors":"Hong Yang,&nbsp;Wen Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3082","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>China's labor share has declined since late 1990s. Using the methodology developed by Oberfield and Raval, this paper estimates China's aggregate capital-labor elasticity of substitution, leveraging the estimated micro-level elasticities. The findings indicate that China's aggregate capital-labor elasticity falls within the range of 0.9 to 1. Utilizing this estimated aggregate elasticity for labor share decomposition, we find that the bias of technical change emerges as the predominant factor driving the decline in labor share.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1190-1197"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported 在误报参与情况时确定计划效益
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3079
Denni Tommasi, Lina Zhang
{"title":"Identifying program benefits when participation is misreported","authors":"Denni Tommasi,&nbsp;Lina Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jae.3079","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3079","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In cases of noncompliance with an assigned treatment, estimates of causal effects typically rely on instrumental variables (IV). However, when participation is also misreported, the IV estimand may become a nonconvex combination of local average treatment effects that fails to satisfy even a minimal condition for being causal. The aim of our paper is to generalize the MR-LATE approach. This is an alternative IV estimand that is more robust in cases of noncompliance and nondifferential misclassification of the treatment variable. Our generalization is threefold: First, we incorporate discrete and multiple-discrete instrument(s); second, we consider the use of instrument(s) under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition; third, we provide a general inferential procedure. Under relatively stringent assumptions, MR-LATE is either identical to the IV estimand or less biased than the naïve IV estimand. Under less stringent assumptions, the MR-LATE estimand can identify the sign of the IV estimand. We conclude with the use of a dedicated Stata command, <span>ivreg2m,</span> to assess the return on education in the United Kingdom.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1123-1148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141528824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach 测试基于调查的密度预期差异：组合数据方法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3080
Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas, Geoff Kenny
{"title":"Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: A compositional data approach","authors":"Jonas Dovern,&nbsp;Alexander Glas,&nbsp;Geoff Kenny","doi":"10.1002/jae.3080","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jae.3080","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach that involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computationally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the US Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1104-1122"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3080","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The propagation of business expectations within the European Union 欧盟内部商业期望的传播
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3075
Anja Sebbesen, Harald Oberhofer
{"title":"The propagation of business expectations within the European Union","authors":"Anja Sebbesen,&nbsp;Harald Oberhofer","doi":"10.1002/jae.3075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3075","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper empirically investigates the propagation of firm expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine information from EU-wide official business surveys with input–output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input–output linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillover effects in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1082-1103"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.3075","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates 产出缺口估算的稳定性和经济相关性
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1002/jae.3062
Alessandro Barbarino, Travis J. Berge, Andrea Stella
{"title":"The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates","authors":"Alessandro Barbarino,&nbsp;Travis J. Berge,&nbsp;Andrea Stella","doi":"10.1002/jae.3062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3062","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We provide a comprehensive comparison of real-time output gap estimates, with the aim of understanding this real-time instability. Using a statistical decomposition, we find that including Okun's law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"39 6","pages":"1065-1081"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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