Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI:10.1002/jae.3102

Simon C. Smith, Allan Timmermann, Jonathan H. Wright

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We revisit the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with structural breaks to US and EU disaggregate data. Our approach lets us estimate both the number and timing of breaks and to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns. We find evidence of a flattening for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Evidence of flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and the wage Phillips curve. We find evidence of a kink in the Phillips curve, which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.

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菲利普斯曲线的断裂：来自面板数据的证据

我们重新审视菲利普斯曲线，将新的贝叶斯面板方法与结构断裂应用于美国和欧盟的分类数据。我们的方法使我们能够估计中断的数量和时间，并确定是否存在菲利普斯曲线显示类似模式的产业集群、城市集群或国家集群。我们发现，美国和欧盟国家（尤其是较贫穷国家）的行业数据趋于平缓。msa水平数据和工资菲利普斯曲线趋平的证据较弱。我们在菲利普斯曲线中发现了一个扭结的证据，当经济过热时，这条曲线仍然相对陡峭。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.