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Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 战争近在咫尺：股市对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13226
JONATHAN FEDERLE, ANDRÉ MEIER, GERNOT J. MÜLLER, VICTOR SEHN
{"title":"Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine","authors":"JONATHAN FEDERLE,&nbsp;ANDRÉ MEIER,&nbsp;GERNOT J. MÜLLER,&nbsp;VICTOR SEHN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13226","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13226","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We identify a “proximity penalty” in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the closer countries are to Ukraine, the lower their equity returns in a four-week window around the start of the war. This result holds even at the firm level within Ukraine's neighbors. Trade linkages explain two-thirds of the proximity penalty. We attribute the remainder—1.1 percentage points in equity returns per 1,000 km of extra distance—to military disaster risk. Evidence from other financial data, geopolitical risk indicators, and aid flow statistics supports the relevance of military tail risk as a spillover channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"681-703"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13226","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade-Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU 欧元得到回报了吗？欧洲货币联盟的贸易福利效应研究
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13220
Silviano Esteve-Pérez, Salvador Gil-Pareja, Rafael Llorca-Vivero, Jordi Paniagua
{"title":"Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade-Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU","authors":"Silviano Esteve-Pérez,&nbsp;Salvador Gil-Pareja,&nbsp;Rafael Llorca-Vivero,&nbsp;Jordi Paniagua","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13220","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13220","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper aims to provide policy-relevant insights into the effect of the euro on trade. It uses a new data set of bilateral international and intranational manufacturing trade flows for 69 countries over the period 1986−2016. A general equilibrium gravity model is estimated to quantify the welfare effect of the euro and its impact on consumer prices and producer prices within countries (i.e., distributional effects). The results of three counterfactual experiments indicate that the euro has successfully increased welfare for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU member countries. The results suggest that a two-speed euro design would have further increased welfare, with some heterogeneity within countries. The growth effects of the euro are mainly driven by trade creation outside the EMU. This finding raises questions over the cohesiveness of the euro area as an optimum currency area.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"705-737"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13220","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation 共同工资通胀的新指标
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13217
HIE JOO AHN, HAN CHEN, MICHAEL KISTER
{"title":"A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation","authors":"HIE JOO AHN,&nbsp;HAN CHEN,&nbsp;MICHAEL KISTER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13217","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13217","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry-level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post-Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry-specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"763-786"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality 不确定性冲击对收入和财富不平等的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13228
SANGYUP CHOI, JEEYEON PHI
{"title":"Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality","authors":"SANGYUP CHOI,&nbsp;JEEYEON PHI","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13228","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13228","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the distributional consequences of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy. While their impact on income inequality appears marginal when measured by a single statistic, there are important variations: inequality between the rich and middle-income groups decreases, while inequality between the middle and poor-income groups increases significantly. Additionally, uncertainty shocks increase labor income inequality through higher unemployment rates but simultaneously decrease nonlabor income inequality by reducing business and interest income. Uncertainty shocks reduce disposable income inequality, demonstrating the role of redistribution policy. Finally, they tend to reduce wealth inequality, mainly due to their adverse impact on financial asset prices, predominantly owned by wealthy households.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"821-852"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13228","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generalizing Determinacy under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switches: The Case of the Zero Lower Bound 货币和财政政策转换下的广义确定性：零下限的情况
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13204
SEONGHOON CHO, ANTONIO MORENO
{"title":"Generalizing Determinacy under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switches: The Case of the Zero Lower Bound","authors":"SEONGHOON CHO,&nbsp;ANTONIO MORENO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13204","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a fixed-regime context, it has been established since the work of Leeper (1991) that a determinate and unique equilibrium can be achieved under both monetary dominance (characterized by an active monetary policy and a passive fiscal policy) and fiscal dominance (characterized by an active fiscal policy and a passive monetary policy) regimes yield a determinate unique equilibrium. In this paper, we generalize this well-established policy-mix taxonomy to regime-switching models, and show that switches from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance regimes (and vice versa) render the economy indeterminate for standard parameter values. We apply our results to the important case of the exit from the zero lower bound (ZLB), where monetary policy is inherently passive. Contrary to the fixed-regime prediction, the economy switching between the ZLB in a fiscally led regime and a monetary dominance regime is robustly indeterminate, making the coordination of agents' beliefs hard for anchoring expected inflation. Finally, we propose a direction toward which the perspective of the fiscal theory of the price level can be made consistent with a unique stable equilibrium.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"421-448"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13204","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147562489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market-Triggered Contingent Capital with Incomplete Information 不完全信息下的市场触发式或有资本
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13190
TOBIAS BERG, EVA SCHLIEPHAKE
{"title":"Market-Triggered Contingent Capital with Incomplete Information","authors":"TOBIAS BERG,&nbsp;EVA SCHLIEPHAKE","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13190","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13190","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the equilibria of market-triggered contingent capital if a bank's asset value is <i>not</i> common knowledge. Using a global game setup with private signals, we characterize the unique equilibrium for the conversion of the market-triggered contingent capital. The conversion likelihood increases with higher bank leverage, a higher face value of contingent capital, and a greater dilution for incumbent shareholders. We further show that the existence of both a private and a public signal constrains the optimal design of contingent capital for which a unique equilibrium exists.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"563-589"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13190","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decomposing Supply- and Demand-Driven Inflation 分解供给和需求驱动的通货膨胀
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13209
ADAM HALE SHAPIRO
{"title":"Decomposing Supply- and Demand-Driven Inflation","authors":"ADAM HALE SHAPIRO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13209","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven components. I generate two new data series that quantify the degree to which either demand or supply is driving inflation in a current month. The demand-driven contribution tends to decline during recessions, while the supply-driven contribution tends to follow food and energy prices. Monetary policy tightening acts to reduce the demand-driven contribution of inflation. Oil-supply shocks act to increase the supply-driven contribution, but decrease the demand-driven contribution of inflation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"365-388"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147562487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy and Government Debt 货币政策与政府债务
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13215
NICOLAS CARAMP, ETHAN FEILICH
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Government Debt","authors":"NICOLAS CARAMP,&nbsp;ETHAN FEILICH","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13215","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study how the level of government debt affects the effectiveness of monetary policy, that is, the elasticity of economic aggregates to interest rate changes. We build a New Keynesian model where fiscal policy is non-Ricardian and government debt is risk-free. Wealth effects generated by government bonds weaken the transmission of monetary policy to output. Using data on private ownership of U.S. public debt, we find that when the debt-to-GDP ratio is one standard deviation above its mean, the response of industrial production and unemployment to a monetary shock decreases by 0.75pp and 0.1pp, respectively, out to a 3-year horizon.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"389-420"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13215","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147562486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonconforming Preferences: Jumbo Mortgage Lending and Large Bank Stress Tests 不符合标准的偏好：巨额抵押贷款和大型银行压力测试
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13205
ANDREW HAUGHWOUT, DONALD MORGAN, MICHAEL NEUBAUER, MAXIM PINKOVSKIY, WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW
{"title":"Nonconforming Preferences: Jumbo Mortgage Lending and Large Bank Stress Tests","authors":"ANDREW HAUGHWOUT,&nbsp;DONALD MORGAN,&nbsp;MICHAEL NEUBAUER,&nbsp;MAXIM PINKOVSKIY,&nbsp;WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13205","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document a substantial shift toward nonconforming (“jumbo”) mortgage lending by banks subject to Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress tests. Using two measures of this jumbo shift and difference-in-difference analysis, we show that jumbos as a share of all mortgage originations by CCAR banks rose and that their originations were less “bunched” just below the conforming loan limit. We explore several potential mechanisms that might explain CCAR banks' increased preference for jumbo with varying degrees of support. Our evidence is most consistent with the hypothesis that CCAR banks were attracted to the relatively lower credit risk of jumbo mortgages.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"471-495"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization 存款竞争与抵押贷款证券化
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-03-11 Epub Date: 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13207
DANNY MCGOWAN, HUYEN NGUYEN, KLAUS SCHAECK
{"title":"Deposit Competition and Mortgage Securitization","authors":"DANNY MCGOWAN,&nbsp;HUYEN NGUYEN,&nbsp;KLAUS SCHAECK","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13207","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 2","pages":"497-532"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13207","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147562488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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