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The (Ir)Relevance of Rule-of-Thumb Consumers for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations 拇指规则消费者与美国商业周期波动的（非）相关性
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13057
ALICE ALBONICO, GUIDO ASCARI, QAZI HAQUE
{"title":"The (Ir)Relevance of Rule-of-Thumb Consumers for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations","authors":"ALICE ALBONICO,&nbsp;GUIDO ASCARI,&nbsp;QAZI HAQUE","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13057","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13057","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate a medium-scale model with and without rule-of-thumb consumers over the pre-Volcker and the Great Moderation periods, allowing for indeterminacy. Passive monetary policy and sunspot fluctuations characterize the pre-Volcker period for both models. In both subsamples, the estimated fraction of rule-of-thumb consumers is low, such that the two models are empirically almost equivalent; they yield very similar impulse response functions, variance, and historical decompositions. We conclude that rule-of-thumb consumers are irrelevant to explain aggregate U.S. business cycle fluctuations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 4","pages":"769-804"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134922893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wealth, Portfolios, and Nonemployment Duration 财富、投资组合和非就业持续时间
IF 1.2 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13058
FRANÇOIS FONTAINE, JANNE NYBORG JENSEN, RUNE VEJLIN
{"title":"Wealth, Portfolios, and Nonemployment Duration","authors":"FRANÇOIS FONTAINE,&nbsp;JANNE NYBORG JENSEN,&nbsp;RUNE VEJLIN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13058","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13058","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use administrative data on individual balance sheets in Denmark to document how an individual's financial position affects job search behavior. We look at the effect of wealth at the entry into unemployment on the exit rate from unemployment as well as the effect on the subsequent match quality. The detailed data allow us not only to distinguish between liquid and illiquid parts, but also to decompose each of them into assets and liabilities. The decomposition of wealth into these four components is key to understanding how wealth affects job finding rates. In particular, we show that liquid assets reduce the probability of becoming reemployed, but we do not see an effect of liquid liabilities or the illiquid wealth components, while interest payments speed up reemployment. The results on subsequent match quality in form of job duration and wages are mixed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 7","pages":"1861-1886"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13058","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134922605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers 抵押贷款利率重置如何影响消费者支出和债务偿还?来自加拿大消费者的证据
3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13055
KATYA KARTASHOVA, XIAOQING ZHOU
{"title":"How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers","authors":"KATYA KARTASHOVA, XIAOQING ZHOU","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the most important channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy is changes in mortgage rates. This paper studies the effects of mortgage rate changes resulting from monetary policy shifts on homeowners' spending, debt repayment, and defaults. The Canadian institutional setting facilitates the design of identification strategies for causal inference, since the vast majority of mortgages in the country experience predetermined, periodic, and automatic contract renewals with the mortgage rate reset based on the prevailing market rate. This allows us to exploit quasi‐random variation in the timing of the rate reset and to present causal evidence for both rate declines and increases using detailed, representative consumer credit panel data. We find asymmetric effects of rate changes on spending, debt repayment, and defaults. Our results can be rationalized by the conventional cash‐flow effect in conjunction with changes in consumer expectations about future interest rates upon the reset. Given the pervasiveness of Canadian‐type mortgages in many other OECD countries, our findings have broader implications for the transmission of monetary policy to the household sector.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135220041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting Real Wage Rigidity 重新审视实际工资刚性
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13056
MICHAEL ELLINGTON, CHRIS MARTIN, BINGSONG WANG
{"title":"Revisiting Real Wage Rigidity","authors":"MICHAEL ELLINGTON,&nbsp;CHRIS MARTIN,&nbsp;BINGSONG WANG","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13056","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that real wage rigidity is not a major cause of unemployment volatility. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theoretical and empirical literatures on this topic. While theoretical studies define real wage rigidity as the response of wages to changes in unemployment following productivity shocks, the empirical literature measures real wage rigidity as the estimated semi-elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment, averaged over all shocks. We show that averaging over shocks gives a biased measure of real wage rigidity, as the impact of other shocks confounds the response to productivity shocks. Our results indicate that the estimated semi-elasticity with respect to productivity shocks is twice as large as the estimated semi-elasticity averaged over all shocks. This implies that one cannot attribute unemployment volatility to real wage rigidity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 2-3","pages":"613-626"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41269013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Argument by False Analogy: The Mistaken Classification of Bitcoin as Token Money 错误类比的论证：比特币作为代币的错误分类
IF 1.2 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13061
ALISTAIR MILNE
{"title":"Argument by False Analogy: The Mistaken Classification of Bitcoin as Token Money","authors":"ALISTAIR MILNE","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13061","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13061","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents inconsistent terminologies and misleading analogies in current discussions of digital money and payments. It offers a more consistent framework for understanding the potential of technological innovation in providing the functions of money and payments: as media of exchange, stores of value, and units of account and the implications of cryptographic technologies underpinning cryptocurrencies for the future of money and payments. These could support efficiency gains in money and payments, but decentralization is not inherent to their application. Radical reform leading to improved economic outcomes is conceivable, but not through disruptive displacement of existing institutional arrangements.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 8","pages":"2199-2222"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13061","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135847379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy 用货币政策管理实验性资产市场的泡沫
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13050
MYRNA HENNEQUIN, CARS HOMMES
{"title":"Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy","authors":"MYRNA HENNEQUIN,&nbsp;CARS HOMMES","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13050","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13050","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effect of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a learning-to-forecast experiment, where prices are driven by the expectations of market participants. We find that a strong interest rate response is successful in preventing or deflating large price bubbles, while a weak response is not. Giving information about the interest rate changes and communicating the goal of the policy increases coordination of expectations and has a stabilizing effect. When the steady-state fundamental price is unknown and the interest rate rule is based on a proxy instead, the policy is less effective.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 2-3","pages":"429-454"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45190150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Shorts 非常规货币政策与空头行为
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13045
THOMAS MCINISH, CHRISTOPHER J. NEELY, JADE PLANCHON
{"title":"Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Shorts","authors":"THOMAS MCINISH,&nbsp;CHRISTOPHER J. NEELY,&nbsp;JADE PLANCHON","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13045","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the behavior of shorts, considered sophisticated investors, before and after a set of Federal Reserve unconventional monetary policy announcements that spot bond markets did not fully anticipate. Short interest in agency securities systematically predicts bond price changes and other asset returns on the days of monetary announcements, particularly when growth or monetary news is released, indicating shorts correctly anticipate these surprises. Shorts also systematically rebalance after announcements in the direction of the announcement surprise when the announcement releases monetary or growth news, suggesting that shorts interpret these announcements to imply further yield changes in the same direction.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 4","pages":"805-835"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134998384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corruption Control, Financial Development, and Growth Volatility: Cross-Country Evidence 腐败控制、金融发展和增长波动：跨国证据
IF 1.2 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13051
PHILIPP STRUTHMANN, YABIBAL M. WALLE, HELMUT HERWARTZ
{"title":"Corruption Control, Financial Development, and Growth Volatility: Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"PHILIPP STRUTHMANN,&nbsp;YABIBAL M. WALLE,&nbsp;HELMUT HERWARTZ","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13051","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13051","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the effect of corruption control on the volatility of economic growth using cross-country data that cover 131 economies worldwide for the period 1985–2018. To estimate the growth volatility model, we employ the system generalized method-of-moments estimator for dynamic panel data, which addresses potential endogeneity concerns using internal instruments. Our results show that corruption control significantly reduces growth volatility. This effect is robust to controlling for other measures of institutional quality. Moreover, we find some evidence for an indirect impact of corruption control on growth volatility through its role in reinforcing the volatility-dampening effect of financial development.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 7","pages":"1833-1860"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47680669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is Macroprudential Policy Instrument Blunt? Empirical Analysis Based on Japan's Experience from the 1970s to the 1990s 宏观审慎政策工具钝了吗?基于20世纪70年代至90年代日本经验的实证分析
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13052
Katsurako Sonoda, Nao Sudo
{"title":"Is Macroprudential Policy Instrument Blunt? Empirical Analysis Based on Japan's Experience from the 1970s to the 1990s","authors":"Katsurako Sonoda, Nao Sudo","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13052","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49209115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB 货币政策沟通：欧洲央行前决策者的观点
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2023-04-09 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13054
Michael Ehrmann, Sarah Holton, Danielle Kedan, Gillian Phelan
{"title":"Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB","authors":"Michael Ehrmann,&nbsp;Sarah Holton,&nbsp;Danielle Kedan,&nbsp;Gillian Phelan","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13054","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13054","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A survey on monetary policy communication among former members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) reveals that enhancing credibility and trust is viewed as the most important objective of communication. Respondents judge communication with financial markets and experts as adequate, but see room for improvement in communicating with the public. The central bank objective is seen as the most important topic. Several respondents perceived the ECB's inflation aim of “below, but close to, 2%” that was in place at the time as ambiguous and in need of clarification. Overall, there is broad consensus on various communication issues.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 4","pages":"837-864"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135593171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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