The (Ir)Relevance of Rule-of-Thumb Consumers for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations

Abstract

We estimate a medium-scale model with and without rule-of-thumb consumers over the pre-Volcker and the Great Moderation periods, allowing for indeterminacy. Passive monetary policy and sunspot fluctuations characterize the pre-Volcker period for both models. In both subsamples, the estimated fraction of rule-of-thumb consumers is low, such that the two models are empirically almost equivalent; they yield very similar impulse response functions, variance, and historical decompositions. We conclude that rule-of-thumb consumers are irrelevant to explain aggregate U.S. business cycle fluctuations.