{"title":"Regulatory Capital Management to Exceed Thresholds","authors":"LUCIANA OROZCO, SILVINA RUBIO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13230","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate whether a <i>carrot</i> approach, which provides benefits for regulatory compliance rather than penalties for noncompliance, incentivizes banks to reach capital levels above the minimum requirements. We document a significant discontinuity at the 10% regulatory capital threshold, where banks receive benefits for exceeding it. Banks exceed it to pay lower deposit insurance fees, access brokered deposits, and expanded financial activities. Banks often rely on equity to reach this threshold while using accounting discretion primarily when facing small capital shortfalls. Our findings suggest the <i>carrot</i> approach can effectively increase banks' capital positions. However, we find that using accounting discretion to exceed the threshold hurts bank stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 6","pages":"1421-1464"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13230","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Regulatory Stress Tests on Banks' Portfolio Similarity and Implications for Systemic Risk","authors":"FALK BRÄUNING, JOSÉ L. FILLAT","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13239","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Portfolio similarity among the largest U.S. banks has increased since stress testing began in 2012. Using aggregate and detailed loan-level data, we find that, as a result of stress testing, banks rebalance their portfolio toward similarly diversified portfolios, leading to higher concentration in the aggregate banking system and raising financial stability concerns as systemic risk contributions increase. The rebalancing is driven by a supply contraction in loans that cause larger losses under stress testing, especially by banks with high capital losses in past stress tests. This rebalancing holds conditional on assets that have identical contributions to regulatory capital requirements.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 6","pages":"1387-1419"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Life Cycle of Systemic Risk and Crises","authors":"ALLEN N. BERGER, JOHN SEDUNOV","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13231","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present a life cycle view of systemic risk and crises that incorporates and synthesizes a number of views and organizes the theoretical and empirical research evidence in a clear fashion. We illustrate how systemic risks build during the boom, are realized during the following crisis, and are well addressed or not in the aftermath, which helps determine how well or poorly the following cycle will likely evolve. We aim to improve current understanding of systemic risk and crises, the roles of the different economic segments of society, highlight key issues of measurement, and provide guidance for future academic research and policy analysis. We address several controversies—the outsized role of the banking sector in creating and resolving systemic risks, its exclusive role in systemic risk measurement, and seemingly irrational behavior in which the same or similar costly mistakes are repeated every cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 8","pages":"1923-1961"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the U.S. Banking and Bond Markets at the Lower Bound","authors":"PETER SPENCER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13201","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of credit and monetary policy shocks are analyzed using a shadow rate model of the Eurodollar (ED) and Treasury bond markets. This model uses three factors common to both markets and two spread factors that capture the term structure of the rate differential. The results show that the policy initiatives that followed the Lehman default in 2008 were much more effective in restraining risk premiums in banking markets than in the Treasury market and that, besides the shadow policy rate, the shadow ED rate is a useful indicator of the effect of default risk on the economy.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"251 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market Regulation, Cycles, and Growth Dynamics in a Monetary Union","authors":"MIRKO ABBRITTI, SEBASTIAN WEBER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13212","url":null,"abstract":"We build a two‐country currency union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous growth to assess the role of product market regulation (PMR) and labor market regulation (LMR) for growth and the adjustment to shocks. We show that with endogenous growth, there is no reason to expect real income convergence. Large shocks can lead to permanent changes of output and real exchange rates. Differences are exacerbated by different PMR and LMR. Less regulated economies have higher trend growth and recover faster from negative shocks. Results are consistent with higher inflation, lower employment, and disappointing total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates experienced in more regulated euro area members.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exchange Rates and Prices in the Netherlands and Britain over the Past Four Centuries","authors":"JAMES R. LOTHIAN, JOHN DEVEREUX","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13213","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the long‐term stability of the purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) relation using data for the Netherlands and Great Britain (earlier the Dutch Republic and England) from 1590 until 2020. We begin by investigating the behavior of the real exchange rate in rate‐of‐growth form finding strong evidence supporting long‐run relative PPP. Turning to price levels, we find evidence of mean‐reverting behavior over the whole period with one long‐lived shift in mean between 1788 and 1931. The myriad other factors that varied over this long period that might have affected the stability of the PPP relation do not appear to have mattered.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information","authors":"CHENGCHENG JIA","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13202","url":null,"abstract":"I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142208074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ANA MARÍA HERRERA, RAOUL MINETTI, MATTHEW SCHAFFER
{"title":"Financial Liberalization, Credit Market Dynamism, and Allocative Efficiency","authors":"ANA MARÍA HERRERA, RAOUL MINETTI, MATTHEW SCHAFFER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the effects of financial liberalization on the dynamism of the credit market. We measure interfirm credit reallocation in the U.S. states following a methodology akin to Davis and Haltiwanger (1992). We then exploit the staggered liberalization of the credit markets of the U.S. states to identify an exogenous shock to the credit reallocation process. The liberalization intensified credit reallocation in the states, even within narrowly defined groups of continuing firms, while leaving credit growth essentially unaltered. The results suggest that the increased credit market dynamism enhanced the allocation of funds to productive firms and total factor productivity growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 6","pages":"1559-1596"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Divisia Measure of the Money Supply for Mexico","authors":"LUIS FERNANDO COLUNGA‐RAMOS, VICTOR J. VALCARCEL","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13198","url":null,"abstract":"We produce the first measure of Divisia money for Mexico. Various structural VAR identifications with Divisia M4 as an indicator of monetary policy yield responses of production and prices that are in every case at least as sensible as—and generally offer an improvement over—their counterpart specifications with a short‐term offer rate as the indicator. Importantly, we find that our Divisia specifications do not require expanding the model's information set with commodity prices or the real exchange rate for a resolution of the price puzzle. We reach similar conclusions for Mexico to those Keating et al. (2019) arrive at for the U.S. economy.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"317 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142226593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty","authors":"JOHANNES POESCHL, JAKOB G. MIKKELSEN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13193","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}