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Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery 最好的吗?即将到期的中央银行数字货币和损失追回
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13208
CHARLES M. KAHN, MAARTEN R.C. VAN OORDT, YU ZHU
{"title":"Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery","authors":"CHARLES M. KAHN,&nbsp;MAARTEN R.C. VAN OORDT,&nbsp;YU ZHU","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13208","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Physical cash enables payments in the absence of electricity or network coverage. Such offline payment functionality promotes the operational resilience and, particularly in developing countries, the accessibility of payments. Central banks are exploring issuing digital cash substitutes with similar offline payment functionality. Such substitutes could incorporate novel features, making them more desirable than physical cash. This paper considers automating personal loss recovery for offline digital currency balances through the introduction of an expiry date. Our results show this functionality could have a substantial positive impact on consumer demand for offline digital currency balances. We find an asymmetric impact on welfare of adjustments to the expiry date: small increases from the optimum cause little damage, but small decreases from the optimal expiry date can have a large negative impact. More information-sharing between user devices and the central bank can improve loss recovery but has an ambiguous impact on social welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"787-819"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13208","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147667927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pollution Permits and Financing Costs 污染许可和融资成本
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13241
FABIO ANTONIOU, MANTHOS D. DELIS, STEVEN ONGENA, CHRIS TSOUMAS
{"title":"Pollution Permits and Financing Costs","authors":"FABIO ANTONIOU,&nbsp;MANTHOS D. DELIS,&nbsp;STEVEN ONGENA,&nbsp;CHRIS TSOUMAS","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13241","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective environmental policy should consider how the financiers of polluting firms behave. We study phase III of the EU Emission Trading System. Loan spreads for cap-and-trade participants are a function of compliance costs, permit market features, and firms’ strategic actions. In contrast with the program intentions, we find that loan spreads fall by approximately 25%. We show that this decrease is almost entirely driven by low permit prices, the firms’ proactiveness to store permits, and imperfect foresight of market conditions in phase III. The drop in spreads cannot be explained by the decline in energy prices and/or other confounding factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"637-679"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13241","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Adjusting the One-Sided Hodrick–Prescott Filter 单侧Hodrick-Prescott滤波器的调整
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13240
ELIAS WOLF, FRIEDER MOKINSKI, YVES SCHÜLER
{"title":"On Adjusting the One-Sided Hodrick–Prescott Filter","authors":"ELIAS WOLF,&nbsp;FRIEDER MOKINSKI,&nbsp;YVES SCHÜLER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13240","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick–Prescott (HP-1s) filter as the real-time version of the two-sided HP (HP-2s) filter: First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second, HP-1s dampens fluctuations at all frequencies—even those it is meant to extract. As a remedy, we propose two small adjustments to HP-1s, aligning its properties closely with those of HP-2s: (i) a lower value for the smoothing parameter and (ii) a multiplicative rescaling of the extracted cyclical component. For example, for HP-2s with <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>λ</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 <mo>,</mo>\u0000 <mn>600</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$lambda = 1,600$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> (value of smoothing parameter), the adjusted one-sided HP filter uses <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>λ</mi>\u0000 <mo>∗</mo>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>650</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$lambda ^* = 650$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> and rescales the extracted cyclical component by a factor of 1.1513. Using simulated and empirical data, we illustrate the relevance of these adjustments. For instance, financial cycles may appear to be 72% more volatile than business cycles, where, in fact, volatilities differ only marginally.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"919-931"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13240","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation Expectation Uncertainty in a New Keynesian Framework 新凯恩斯主义框架下的通胀预期不确定性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13218
ANGELA FUEST, TORSTEN SCHMIDT
{"title":"Inflation Expectation Uncertainty in a New Keynesian Framework","authors":"ANGELA FUEST,&nbsp;TORSTEN SCHMIDT","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13218","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study analyzes inflation expectation uncertainty and the effect on economic activity. Within a New Keynesian framework, we estimate the effect of an inflation expectation uncertainty shock on the macroeconomy. Inflation expectation uncertainty negatively affects the inflation rate and the output gap, without having a distinct effect on the level of inflation expectations. Second, we provide a theoretical foundation for the effect of inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian-type model, in which uncertainty affects economic activity via the supply side and the demand side of the economy. The results suggest that the demand channel outweighs the supply channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"739-762"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty 银行业恐慌风险与宏观经济不确定性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13193
JOHANNES POESCHL, JAKOB G. MIKKELSEN
{"title":"Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty","authors":"JOHANNES POESCHL,&nbsp;JAKOB G. MIKKELSEN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13193","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13193","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"885-918"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities 房地产市场如何影响本地消费价格？：来自美国城市的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13214
CHI-YOUNG CHOI, SOOJIN JO
{"title":"How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities","authors":"CHI-YOUNG CHOI,&nbsp;SOOJIN JO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13214","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the link between house and consumer prices in 41 U.S. cities using retail price data for various consumer goods. We find that shifts in house prices precede consumer price changes, with varying impacts depending on location and product categories. The nature of housing market shocks matters too; housing supply shocks move consumer prices temporarily through the cost-push dynamics, while housing demand shocks have enduring effects via wealth and collateral channels. Our findings imply that housing market fluctuations may have greater impacts on local cost of living and consumer welfare than their representation in the Consumer Price Index.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"853-884"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 战争近在咫尺：股市对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13226
JONATHAN FEDERLE, ANDRÉ MEIER, GERNOT J. MÜLLER, VICTOR SEHN
{"title":"Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine","authors":"JONATHAN FEDERLE,&nbsp;ANDRÉ MEIER,&nbsp;GERNOT J. MÜLLER,&nbsp;VICTOR SEHN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13226","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We identify a “proximity penalty” in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the closer countries are to Ukraine, the lower their equity returns in a four-week window around the start of the war. This result holds even at the firm level within Ukraine's neighbors. Trade linkages explain two-thirds of the proximity penalty. We attribute the remainder—1.1 percentage points in equity returns per 1,000 km of extra distance—to military disaster risk. Evidence from other financial data, geopolitical risk indicators, and aid flow statistics supports the relevance of military tail risk as a spillover channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"681-703"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13226","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade-Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU 欧元得到回报了吗？欧洲货币联盟的贸易福利效应研究
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13220
Silviano Esteve-Pérez, Salvador Gil-Pareja, Rafael Llorca-Vivero, Jordi Paniagua
{"title":"Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade-Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU","authors":"Silviano Esteve-Pérez,&nbsp;Salvador Gil-Pareja,&nbsp;Rafael Llorca-Vivero,&nbsp;Jordi Paniagua","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13220","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper aims to provide policy-relevant insights into the effect of the euro on trade. It uses a new data set of bilateral international and intranational manufacturing trade flows for 69 countries over the period 1986−2016. A general equilibrium gravity model is estimated to quantify the welfare effect of the euro and its impact on consumer prices and producer prices within countries (i.e., distributional effects). The results of three counterfactual experiments indicate that the euro has successfully increased welfare for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU member countries. The results suggest that a two-speed euro design would have further increased welfare, with some heterogeneity within countries. The growth effects of the euro are mainly driven by trade creation outside the EMU. This finding raises questions over the cohesiveness of the euro area as an optimum currency area.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"705-737"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13220","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation 共同工资通胀的新指标
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13217
HIE JOO AHN, HAN CHEN, MICHAEL KISTER
{"title":"A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation","authors":"HIE JOO AHN,&nbsp;HAN CHEN,&nbsp;MICHAEL KISTER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13217","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry-level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post-Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry-specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"763-786"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality 不确定性冲击对收入和财富不平等的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2026-04-08 Epub Date: 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13228
SANGYUP CHOI, JEEYEON PHI
{"title":"Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality","authors":"SANGYUP CHOI,&nbsp;JEEYEON PHI","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13228","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the distributional consequences of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy. While their impact on income inequality appears marginal when measured by a single statistic, there are important variations: inequality between the rich and middle-income groups decreases, while inequality between the middle and poor-income groups increases significantly. Additionally, uncertainty shocks increase labor income inequality through higher unemployment rates but simultaneously decrease nonlabor income inequality by reducing business and interest income. Uncertainty shocks reduce disposable income inequality, demonstrating the role of redistribution policy. Finally, they tend to reduce wealth inequality, mainly due to their adverse impact on financial asset prices, predominantly owned by wealthy households.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 3","pages":"821-852"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13228","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147668723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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