{"title":"不完全信息下的前瞻性指导","authors":"CHENGCHENG JIA","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13202","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information\",\"authors\":\"CHENGCHENG JIA\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jmcb.13202\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48328,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Money Credit and Banking\",\"volume\":\"7 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Money Credit and Banking\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13202\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13202","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible‐price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm‐specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross‐sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.