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Journal of Money Credit and Banking最新文献

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IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-28
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 4","pages":"1089-1130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148099377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Familiarity Breeds Contagion∗ 熟悉滋生传染
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13229
SUMIT AGARWAL, ADITYA MURLIDHARAN, NAMAN NISHESH, PRASANNA TANTRI
{"title":"Familiarity Breeds Contagion∗","authors":"SUMIT AGARWAL,&nbsp;ADITYA MURLIDHARAN,&nbsp;NAMAN NISHESH,&nbsp;PRASANNA TANTRI","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13229","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although the literature has studied the impact of social ties on credit markets, the possibility of social relations causing contagion remains unexplored. We study the Indian caste system and the group loan structure, where members screen and monitor each other. Using loan-month level data provided by a nonbanking lender, we find that shocks take the form of a loan default contagion within local caste networks, plausibly due to preexisting economic linkages. Several robustness tests rule out delayed propagation of shocks being mischaracterized as a contagion. Thus, we highlight a dark side of social ties in credit markets.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 1","pages":"5-38"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146199410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Life Cycle of Systemic Risk and Crises 系统性风险和危机的生命周期
IF 1.2 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13231
ALLEN N. BERGER, JOHN SEDUNOV
{"title":"The Life Cycle of Systemic Risk and Crises","authors":"ALLEN N. BERGER,&nbsp;JOHN SEDUNOV","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13231","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present a life cycle view of systemic risk and crises that incorporates and synthesizes a number of views and organizes the theoretical and empirical research evidence in a clear fashion. We illustrate how systemic risks build during the boom, are realized during the following crisis, and are well addressed or not in the aftermath, which helps determine how well or poorly the following cycle will likely evolve. We aim to improve current understanding of systemic risk and crises, the roles of the different economic segments of society, highlight key issues of measurement, and provide guidance for future academic research and policy analysis. We address several controversies—the outsized role of the banking sector in creating and resolving systemic risks, its exclusive role in systemic risk measurement, and seemingly irrational behavior in which the same or similar costly mistakes are repeated every cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"56 8","pages":"1923-1961"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investor Sentiment, Managerial Manipulation, and Stock Returns 投资者情绪、管理操纵和股票回报
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13223
JIAJUN JIANG, QI LIU, BO SUN
{"title":"Investor Sentiment, Managerial Manipulation, and Stock Returns","authors":"JIAJUN JIANG,&nbsp;QI LIU,&nbsp;BO SUN","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13223","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The degree of earnings manipulation has been shown to be positively associated with stock returns at the aggregate level but negatively so in the cross- section. We examine, both theoretically and empirically, the role of investor sentiment in accounting for such relations. We find that these patterns are primarily driven by high-sentiment periods. Embedding investor sentiment into a game-theoretic model of earnings manipulation with a continuum of firms delivers consistent predictions. Our analysis highlights the importance of increased scrutiny of corporate reporting during market booms, when manipulation is widespread and adds fuel to price exuberance.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 8","pages":"2189-2209"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jmcb.13223","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145792475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Regulation Only Bite the Less Profitable? Evidence from the Too-Big-To-Fail Reforms 监管只会伤害利润较低的公司吗？来自“大而不倒”改革的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13211
TIRUPAM GOEL, ULF LEWRICK, AAKRITI MATHUR
{"title":"Does Regulation Only Bite the Less Profitable? Evidence from the Too-Big-To-Fail Reforms","authors":"TIRUPAM GOEL,&nbsp;ULF LEWRICK,&nbsp;AAKRITI MATHUR","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13211","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What shapes banks' response to capital requirement reforms? While prereform capitalization is important in the short term, we posit that profitability is key in the medium term, as it underpins banks' capacity to build capital. We examine the impact of capital surcharges on systemically important banks. Through a novel application of textual analysis to identify when banks react, we show that less profitable banks contract when faced with higher requirements, especially if they are closer to the thresholds that determine their surcharges. Conversely, more profitable banks continue to expand, improving banking efficiency but raising concerns about concentration and exposure to tail risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 8","pages":"2043-2074"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145792339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
(In)Stability of the Relationship between Relative Expenditure and Price of Durable and Nondurable Goods （二）耐用品与非耐用品相对支出与价格关系的稳定性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13210
VIPUL BHATT, N. KUNDAN KISHOR
{"title":"(In)Stability of the Relationship between Relative Expenditure and Price of Durable and Nondurable Goods","authors":"VIPUL BHATT,&nbsp;N. KUNDAN KISHOR","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13210","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using an intertemporal consumption model with nondurable and durable goods, we identify a break in the long-run equilibrium relationship between their relative expenditure and relative prices. From 1959 to 1981, these goods were gross substitutes with an elasticity greater than one. Post-1981, the estimated elasticity is below one, indicating complementarity. This shift altered short-run dynamics with durable goods still driving error correction but the magnitude of adjustment is smaller. The cyclical component of durable goods consumption has become more persistent, suggesting that shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, now result in more prolonged deviations from the long-run equilibrium.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 1","pages":"237-259"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146199373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History 拉丁美洲的中央银行独立性与通货膨胀——透过历史的镜头
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13206
LUIS I. JÁCOME, SAMUEL PIENKNAGURA
{"title":"Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History","authors":"LUIS I. JÁCOME,&nbsp;SAMUEL PIENKNAGURA","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13206","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empirical evidence based on Latin America's historical experience. Using a novel historical data set of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries, we recount the rocky journey traveled by central banks to achieve independence and price stability. Our empirical analysis finds a strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation over the last 80 years, with improvements in independence resulting in a steady decline in inflation. Results are robust to endogeneity concerns and to using alternative central bank independence indices.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 1","pages":"261-292"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146199372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information 不完全信息下的前瞻性指导
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13202
CHENGCHENG JIA
{"title":"Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information","authors":"CHENGCHENG JIA","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13202","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jmcb.13202","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I study the effect of forward guidance in a flexible-price economy in which both the private sector and the central bank are subject to imperfect information about the aggregate state of the economy. When forward guidance is provided, the central bank reveals its current imperfect information and commits to a policy rule that makes future policy conditional on perfect information that is only available in the future. The information provided by forward guidance makes individual prices more responsive to firm-specific technology shocks, which increases production efficiency at the cost of higher cross-sectional price variation. The net effect improves social welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 7","pages":"1765-1791"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142208074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the Ideas' Production Function Using Macro-Economic Persistence 利用宏观经济持久性估计创意的生产函数
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13200
XIAOHAN MA, ROBERTO SAMANIEGO
{"title":"Estimating the Ideas' Production Function Using Macro-Economic Persistence","authors":"XIAOHAN MA,&nbsp;ROBERTO SAMANIEGO","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13200","url":null,"abstract":"<p>If productivity stems from the accumulation of ideas, then the ideas' production function can cause productivity and macro-economic aggregates to be persistent. We use this insight to estimate the parameters of the ideas' production function in a general equilibrium model. We find that ideas become harder to produce as they accumulate. We quantitatively explore the propagation of different kinds of shocks through the ideas' production function, finding that nonpersistent shocks that affect R&amp;D decisions may lead to persistent productivity changes as a result. The use of capital in R&amp;D is important for propagation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"58 1","pages":"111-139"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146199415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Liberalization, Credit Market Dynamism, and Allocative Efficiency 金融自由化、信贷市场活力与配置效率
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Journal of Money Credit and Banking Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13203
ANA MARÍA HERRERA, RAOUL MINETTI, MATTHEW SCHAFFER
{"title":"Financial Liberalization, Credit Market Dynamism, and Allocative Efficiency","authors":"ANA MARÍA HERRERA,&nbsp;RAOUL MINETTI,&nbsp;MATTHEW SCHAFFER","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.13203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the effects of financial liberalization on the dynamism of the credit market. We measure interfirm credit reallocation in the U.S. states following a methodology akin to Davis and Haltiwanger (1992). We then exploit the staggered liberalization of the credit markets of the U.S. states to identify an exogenous shock to the credit reallocation process. The liberalization intensified credit reallocation in the states, even within narrowly defined groups of continuing firms, while leaving credit growth essentially unaltered. The results suggest that the increased credit market dynamism enhanced the allocation of funds to productive firms and total factor productivity growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":48328,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Money Credit and Banking","volume":"57 6","pages":"1559-1596"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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