Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第4页

Rebel group mergers: security imperatives and the autonomy dilemma 反叛集团合并：安全必要性和自治困境

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag051

Sedef Aslı Topal

{"title":"Rebel group mergers: security imperatives and the autonomy dilemma","authors":"Sedef Aslı Topal","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Existing research suggests that rebel group mergers typically force at least one side to abandon its group identity and come under the control of another organization. This loss of autonomy binds a group's fate to others, undermining its capacity for independent action. Still, some groups merge, either by joining another armed organization or establishing a new one together, even though other forms of alliance, such as joint operations or united fronts, may address their minimum cooperation needs without risking group autonomy. This behavior raises a puzzling question: what leads these groups to merge despite the associated risks? In this study, I examine the conditions under which rebel groups merge rather than rely on alternative alliances. I argue that mergers are more likely when groups face two heightened external threats that require an immediate response: increasing state repression and inter-rebel fighting. Using cross-national dyadic data and a series of multilevel logistic regression models, I find strong support for my main hypotheses. Simultaneous escalations involving state forces, rival rebel organizations, or both make rebel groups more inclined to merge, trading autonomy for greater security.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"73 1","pages":"832-847"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Media reports of coup d’etat and democratic attitude in neighboring countries 媒体对邻国政变和民主态度的报道

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-06-20 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag052

Yu Osaki,Masahiro Shoji

{"title":"Media reports of coup d’etat and democratic attitude in neighboring countries","authors":"Yu Osaki,Masahiro Shoji","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the impact of a military coup on citizens’ democratic attitudes in neighboring countries. Previous studies have examined the domestic consequences of coups and the possibility of coup contagion across countries, yet little is known about how citizens in neighboring countries respond to coups, despite the potential implications of public opinion for incentives surrounding future coup attempts. Using a nationally representative survey from multiple countries and the unexpected event during survey design, we demonstrate that individuals exposed to news of the coup express greater support for democracy and elections and greater rejection of authoritarian rule, suggesting that citizens view the coup as a cause of political instability rather than a means of liberalization. The effect size is comparable across countries and respondent characteristics, while TV and radio owners react more quickly. These results cannot be explained by media bias, institutional trust, citizens’ learning about the poor performance of military regimes, or concern about their future economic instability. Given the high costs of coup attempts under strong popular opposition, stronger public support for democracy may reduce incentives for coups in neighboring countries. These findings also provide one possible micro-level explanation for the limited empirical support for the coup contagion hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"11 1","pages":"862-876"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Repression after coups: the role of deposed leader partisanship 政变后的镇压：被废黜的领导人党派之争的作用

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-06-11 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag044

Lasse Aaskoven,Christian Bjørnskov

{"title":"Repression after coups: the role of deposed leader partisanship","authors":"Lasse Aaskoven,Christian Bjørnskov","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract State repression frequently occurs in the aftermath of coups d’état. However, the scale and intensity of society-wide repression after these events vary substantially. In this article, we argue that the partisanship of the deposed chief executive influences the level of post-coup repression. Because left-wing incumbents rely on a network of various formal organizations with potential for (mass) mobilization such as formal party organizations, trade unions, and other civil society organizations to gain and stay in power, agents overthrowing left-wing incumbents carry out greater levels of repression during and in the immediate aftermath of a coup to repress these organizations and solidify their new rule. We test this argument on a panel of Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1920 to 2021 using new data on regimes and coups as well as data on repression of civil society organizations and civil liberties from the Varieties of Democracy database. We utilize differences between successful and failed coups as an identification strategy. The results show robust evidence in favour of the argument; successful coups against left-wing chief executives are indeed followed by greater levels of repression against civil society organizations and greater drops in civil liberties. These effects are larger in the case of military coups and when the country experiencing the coups is a democracy.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"9 1","pages":"848-861"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forgive and forget? Why victims need and demand retributive justice after mass violence 原谅和忘记？为什么受害者在大规模暴力之后需要并要求报复性正义

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-06-10 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag033

Phuong N Pham,Christopher W Shay,Patrick Vinck

引用次数: 0

Tracing the tracks: uncovering the causal process between drought and pastoralist violence in southwestern Madagascar 追踪足迹：揭示马达加斯加西南部干旱和牧民暴力之间的因果过程

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-06-09 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag045

Patrick Wennström

{"title":"Tracing the tracks: uncovering the causal process between drought and pastoralist violence in southwestern Madagascar","authors":"Patrick Wennström","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While climate change is widely recognized as a contributor to violent conflict, the specific causal mechanisms linking environmental stress to violence remain insufficiently understood. This article addresses that gap by tracing how drought contributes to pastoralist violence in the understudied case of southwestern Madagascar—a region that has recently experienced both an unprecedented surge in violent cattle raids and the most severe drought in decades. Understanding this link is crucial given the rising incidence of pastoralist violence across Africa and projections of more frequent and severe droughts. The article examines two commonly theorized mechanisms that connect climate variability to organized violence through adverse economic effects: increased economic inequalities and lower opportunity costs. Drawing on extensive qualitative interview data, the process tracing analysis finds empirical support for both mechanisms and identifies an additional pathway to reduced opportunity costs. The first two causal pathways stem from failed harvests that reduce food and income, thereby increasing inequalities and lowering opportunity costs. The third one arises from drought-induced environmental changes, which make tracking more difficult, creating strategic advantages and further reducing the costs of violence. Lower opportunity costs emerge as the most significant mechanism. Overall, the study advances our understanding of the climate–conflict nexus, broadens the empirical scope of the literature, and offers policy-relevant insights into the drivers of pastoralist violence in Africa.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"28 1","pages":"995-1008"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental peacebuilding in difficult contexts: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of conditions for communal cooperation in Somalia 困难环境下的环境建设和平：索马里社区合作条件的模糊集定性比较分析

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag036

Osman M Jama,Tobias Ide,Oliver Fritsch,Paul Taucher

{"title":"Environmental peacebuilding in difficult contexts: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of conditions for communal cooperation in Somalia","authors":"Osman M Jama,Tobias Ide,Oliver Fritsch,Paul Taucher","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite growing interest in environmental peacebuilding in recent years, there has been limited research exploring the conditions that contribute to local environmental peacebuilding. Existing empirical studies are predominantly qualitative single-case studies, valued for their theoretical insights but criticized for their limited external validity. Cross-case comparisons, although scarce, often rely on secondary data, leading to definitional and methodological inconsistencies. This study addresses this gap by employing multi-site fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify under what conditions local environmental cooperation is initiated and sustained over renewable resources in politically fragile contexts. We collected primary data through semistructured interviews on 22 intercommunal cases in which two communities engaged either in cooperation or in conflict over water access points in Puntland State, Somalia, covering the period from 2015 to 2023. The results highlight the relevance of the simultaneous presence of three conditions: preexisting trust, mutual interdependence, and traditional institutions. These conditions do not operate in isolation; they interact to enable cooperation and build peace related to the environment and natural resources. Our findings suggest that even in politically fragile, environmentally stressed, and highly climate-vulnerable places, local communities can find cooperative solutions to renewable resource disputes if specific conditions are met.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"6 1","pages":"981-994"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Misreading the public? Rethinking surveys in interstate disputes 误读公众？重新思考州际争端中的调查

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag041

Yasuki Kudo,Sohei Shigemura,Makito Takei

{"title":"Misreading the public? Rethinking surveys in interstate disputes","authors":"Yasuki Kudo,Sohei Shigemura,Makito Takei","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Do surveys provide reliable information on public opinion in interstate disputes? Politicians and critics frequently rely on surveys to understand public policy preferences in disputes. We provide empirical evidence that casts doubt on the reliability of such surveys: respondents may falsify their preferences when they favor contentious approaches, such as aggressive military activities and concessions to adversaries. Concessions are often perceived as anti-societal, as they sacrifice national interests for the benefit of an adversary, while aggressive military options conflict with widely shared anti-war norms prevalent across many societies. These approaches are therefore deemed socially undesirable, and the members of society feel pressure to conform their expressed preferences accordingly, even in anonymous online settings. A list experiment evaluating Japanese voters’ opinions on the territorial dispute with China shows that the use of a direct question format underestimates support for territorial concessions and military base construction on the disputed territories by 16–20 percentage points compared to the list format. These findings carry important implications for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners. Democratic elites who rely on survey data to gauge public preferences may systematically misread their constituents, potentially missing both opportunities for peaceful resolution and risks of unexpected public support for escalation.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"59 1","pages":"1028-1034"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Defense demands in NATO and Europe: further spatiotemporal analysis 北约和欧洲的防务需求：进一步的时空分析

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-05-19 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag030

Justin George,Todd Sandler

{"title":"Defense demands in NATO and Europe: further spatiotemporal analysis","authors":"Justin George,Todd Sandler","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The overriding research questions addressed here involve to what extent alternative samples of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European allies free ride on other allies' military expenditure (ME) during the post–Cold War era. In so doing, we indicate how spatial and spatiotemporal considerations affect this free riding. For 1992–2023, the article estimates NATO defense demands under four spatial-weighting ME spillin schemes and finds that free riding was prevalent. Those findings are then contrasted with the case in which both spatial and temporal lags on ME are allowed, leading to much reduced short-run, spatial-based free riding, followed by increasing free riding over time as defense-spending bureaucratic inertia dissipated. With spatial and spatiotemporal spillins, the first Trump administration's term was associated with reduced NATO free riding. We then focus on two alternative European samples to address the counterfactual of how greater European defense self-reliance is apt to impact European free riding in the absence of a US and Canadian defense commitment. When the NATO sample excludes the United States and Canada, NATO European allies' free riding was much reduced, disappearing for three spatial-weighting schemes. Notably, free riding disappeared altogether for a pan-European sample of NATO and non-NATO countries. Those results suggest that, if the European countries succeed in raising their defense spending during Trump's second term, free riding within Europe will not likely undo their efforts. Finally, for the post-Crimean period (2014–2023), we find that NATO defense spending did not display short- or long-run free riding.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"25 1","pages":"942-954"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Introducing the War-Related Protests data 介绍与战争有关的抗议数据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-05-19 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag035

Kirssa Cline Ryckman,Chaelin Kwon

引用次数: 0

How does recalling violent conflict affect prosocial behaviour? Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment in Uganda 回忆暴力冲突如何影响亲社会行为？来自乌干达实验室实地实验的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-05-09 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag023

Anouk S Rigterink,Mareike Schomerus

{"title":"How does recalling violent conflict affect prosocial behaviour? Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment in Uganda","authors":"Anouk S Rigterink,Mareike Schomerus","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates how recalling a time of violent conflict affects prosocial behaviour. We study this using a lab-in-the-field experiment (N = 700) in northern Uganda. The experiment advances previous literature by experimentally varying whether participants recall an experience from a time of conflict (the treatment group) or a non-conflict experience (the control group). We find mixed effects across prosocial behaviours, measured through incentivized behavioural games: the treatment increases altruism in a dictator game and demand for fairness in an ultimatum game (by 0.17 and 0.36 standard deviations), but does not affect cooperation in a fragile public goods game. A prominent theoretical explanation states that conflict increases prosociality by strengthening in-group prosocial norms. However, this cannot explain mixed effects across prosocial behaviours, or how conflict can promote prosociality in contexts where conflict has plausibly undermined such norms, including northern Uganda. We offer a new, inductively derived, theoretical explanation: individual prosocial behaviour can serve as a signal that increases in strength as in-group norms are less prosocial. Evidence from qualitative interviews and participants’ classification of their recalled experience—although not conclusive—is consistent with individual prosocial behaviour as a signalling device.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"206 1","pages":"763-776"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0