Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第4页

Words to unite nations: The complete United Nations General Debate Corpus, 1946–present 团结各国的话语联合国一般性辩论语料库（1946 年至今

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241275335

Slava Jankin, Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi

{"title":"Words to unite nations: The complete United Nations General Debate Corpus, 1946–present","authors":"Slava Jankin, Alexander Baturo, Niheer Dasandi","doi":"10.1177/00223433241275335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241275335","url":null,"abstract":"Every year since 1946, the General Debate has taken place at the beginning of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly session. Representatives from all UN member states deliver an address, discussing the issues that they consider most important in global politics, revealing their governments’ positions, and seeking to persuade other states of their perspectives. The annual UN General Debate statements provide invaluable information for scholars of international relations – comparable globally and over time. However, these texts are stored as poor quality images without relevant metadata, preventing researchers from applying data science methods. This paper introduces the complete UN General Debate Corpus (UNGDC). Building on a previous incomplete release of UNGDC, we have extended the corpus to cover the entire 1946–present period, included additional data on all speakers and provided advanced search and data visualization tools on a new website. The complete corpus contains over 10,000 speeches from 202 countries, including historical countries – making it the most comprehensive, unique and accessible collection of global political speeches. We discuss the complete UNGDC, provide relevant information for data users and present illustrative examples of how the corpus can be employed to address key questions in world politics.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142713018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa 环境流离失所与政治不稳定：非洲的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241274979

Angela Chesler

{"title":"Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa","authors":"Angela Chesler","doi":"10.1177/00223433241274979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241274979","url":null,"abstract":"Does environmental displacement provoke political instability? Though migration has long been considered an intermediary in the causal path between environmental change and political upheaval, the relationship remains theoretically underdeveloped and evidence has been limited. This article examines the impact of displacement caused by sudden-onset natural hazards on disruptive antigovernment events including armed conflict, protests and violent riots. It leverages the new Environmental Displacement Dataset (EnDis), an original dataset that identifies quantities of human movement in response to six types of sudden-onset natural hazards in Africa from 1990 to 2017, including floods, storms, wildfires, landslides, earthquakes and volcanic activity. The results of the analyses show that while environmental displacement is not associated with civil war onset or protests, it does increase the incidence of attacks by armed non-state actors and violent riots. Importantly, these destabilizing effects occurr primarily (1) in the context of displacement driven by floods and storms, and (2) when levels of displacement are well above average. Collectively, these findings portend deepening security crises and violent political upheaval as climate change drives more frequent episodes of extreme weather and excessive environmental displacement.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"198 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142713017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Friends and partners: Estimating latent affinity networks with the graphical LASSO 朋友与伙伴利用图形化 LASSO 估算潜在亲缘网络

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241279377

Andrey Tomashevskiy

{"title":"Friends and partners: Estimating latent affinity networks with the graphical LASSO","authors":"Andrey Tomashevskiy","doi":"10.1177/00223433241279377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241279377","url":null,"abstract":"The notion of affinity among countries is central in studies of international relations: it plays an important role in research as scholars use measures of affinity to study conflict and cooperation in a variety of contexts. To more effectively measure affinity, I argue that it is necessary to utilize multidimensional data and take into account the network context of international relations. In this paper, I develop the deep affinity concept and introduce a new algorithm, the three-step graphical LASSO (GLASSO), to infer and recover latent affinity networks. This technique leverages the abundance of monadic and dyadic state-level data to identify the presence or absence of affinity links between pairs of countries. Directly incorporating network effects and using a variety of multidimensional data inputs, I used the three-step GLASSO to estimate latent affinity links among countries. With these data, I examined the implications of affinity for international conflict and foreign direct investment, and found that the measure of affinity generated with the three-step GLASSO outperformed alternative affinity measures and was associated with decreased conflict and increased economic interaction.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographic features or spatial structures? Unpacking local variation during the 2022 Iranian protests 人口特征还是空间结构？解读 2022 年伊朗抗议活动期间的地方差异

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241267800

Peyman Asadzade

引用次数: 0

Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities 要跨越许多障碍：解释维和人员参与人权活动的能力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241276341

Hannah Smidt, Constantin Ruhe, Sabine Otto

{"title":"Many hurdles to take: Explaining peacekeepers’ ability to engage in human rights activities","authors":"Hannah Smidt, Constantin Ruhe, Sabine Otto","doi":"10.1177/00223433241276341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241276341","url":null,"abstract":"Human rights are a fundamental principle and purpose of the United Nations (UN). Yet, UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) exhibit substantial variation in their ability to engage in human rights activities. While existing research has investigated deployment and mandates, we explain what peacekeepers can actually do on the ground. We argue that the UN Security Council’s permanent member states (the P5) limit human rights mandates if they have private interests in PKO host countries, thereby diminishing peacekeepers’ ability to promote and protect human rights. Moreover, armed conflict shifts priorities away from human rights activities. We use novel data on 21 human rights activities in African countries (1991–2016) and item response models to capture PKOs’ latent ability to engage in these activities. Random and fixed effects regression and mediation analyses with sensitivity tests support our expectations. We find that the P5’s economic interests in the PKO host country negatively correlate with the strength of human rights mandate provisions, which in turn negatively correlates with PKOs’ ability to engage in human rights activities. We find similar, although less consistent, correlations for P5’s security interests. Yet, while mandates partly define the scope of PKOs’ activities, field-level conditions also have an influence. Specifically, ongoing armed conflict negatively correlates with PKOs’ ability to engage in human rights activities. Our results suggest that rising challenges to the liberal international order by powerful states, coupled with the more frequent deployment of PKOs in conflict zones, will likely increase the hurdles that UN PKOs need to overcome to meet expectations regarding their human rights engagement.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

De jure powersharing 1975–2019: Updating the Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraints Dataset 1975-2019 年法律上的权力分享：更新包容、分散和制约数据集

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241271879

Alix Ziff, Miriam Barnum, Ashley Abadeer, Jasmine Chu, Nicole Jao, Marie Zaragoza, Benjamin AT Graham

{"title":"De jure powersharing 1975–2019: Updating the Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraints Dataset","authors":"Alix Ziff, Miriam Barnum, Ashley Abadeer, Jasmine Chu, Nicole Jao, Marie Zaragoza, Benjamin AT Graham","doi":"10.1177/00223433241271879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241271879","url":null,"abstract":"Powersharing institutions are often prescribed to enhance civil peace, democratic survival, and the equitable provision of public services, and these institutions have become more prevalent over time. Nonetheless, the past decade has seen a rise in democratic backsliding and competitive authoritarianism, raising questions about how the relationship between powersharing, democracy, and civil peace may be evolving. This article introduces an update to the Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraints (IDC) powersharing dataset that adds nine years of data, up through 2019. These new data include enhanced intercoder reliability checks, a significant reduction in missing values, and the documentation and correction of some coding errors in the original data. We also employ latent variable models to estimate each of three types of powersharing, allowing scholars to account for measurement uncertainty in analyses of the causes and consequences of powersharing. This dataset allows scholars to address urgent questions about whether previously observed relationships between powersharing and democracy and powersharing and civil peace still hold in this new era, and in what contexts powersharing institutions remain advisable.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142598099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Setting targets: Abatement cost, vulnerability, and the agreement of NATO’s Wales Pledge on Defense Investment 设定目标：减排成本、脆弱性和北约威尔士国防投资承诺协议

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241267798

Jordan Becker, Paul Poast, Tim Haesebrouck

{"title":"Setting targets: Abatement cost, vulnerability, and the agreement of NATO’s Wales Pledge on Defense Investment","authors":"Jordan Becker, Paul Poast, Tim Haesebrouck","doi":"10.1177/00223433241267798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241267798","url":null,"abstract":"Why do countries mutually agree to constraints on their behavior? Why do they comply with such constraints in the absence of enforcement mechanisms? More specifically, why did NATO allies, with disparate geography and perceptions of the international security environment, agree to ‘aim to move towards’ increased defense spending (2% of GDP on defense and 20% of defense budgets on equipment modernization) at their 2014 Wales Summit? Moreover, why have they largely complied with this agreement subsequently? We argue that the ‘Interest Based’ framework for understanding the success or failure of environmental agreements is useful for understanding the agreement and implementation of the Wales Pledge. This argument finds support from interviews with participants and a purpose-built dataset including outcomes of interest (overall defense spending and share of defense budgets allocated to equipment modernization) and key independent variables (vulnerability to security threats and ‘abatement cost’ of meeting the Wales Pledge aims). We find that vulnerability and abatement costs affected both the order in which states agreed the pledge, and the extent to which they have complied with it.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142580064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How user language affects conflict fatality estimates in ChatGPT 用户语言如何影响 ChatGPT 中的冲突死亡率估计值

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241279381

Christoph Valentin Steinert, Daniel Kazenwadel

{"title":"How user language affects conflict fatality estimates in ChatGPT","authors":"Christoph Valentin Steinert, Daniel Kazenwadel","doi":"10.1177/00223433241279381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241279381","url":null,"abstract":"OpenAI’s ChatGPT language model has gained popularity as a powerful tool for problem-solving and information retrieval. However, concerns arise about the reproduction of biases present in the language-specific training data. In this study, we address this issue in the context of the Israeli–Palestinian and Turkish–Kurdish conflicts. Using GPT-3.5, we employed an automated query procedure to inquire about casualties in specific airstrikes, in both Hebrew and Arabic for the former conflict and Turkish and Kurdish for the latter. Our analysis reveals that GPT-3.5 provides 34 ± 11% lower fatality estimates when queried in the language of the attacker than in the language of the targeted group. Evasive answers denying the existence of such attacks further increase the discrepancy. A simplified analysis on the current GPT-4 model shows the same trends. To explain the origin of the bias, we conducted a systematic media content analysis of Arabic news sources. The media analysis suggests that the large-language model fails to link specific attacks to the corresponding fatality numbers reported in the Arabic news. Due to its reliance on co-occurring words, the large-language model may provide death tolls from different attacks with greater news impact or cumulative death counts that are prevalent in the training data. Given that large-language models may shape information dissemination in the future, the language bias identified in our study has the potential to amplify existing biases along linguistic dyads and contribute to information bubbles.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142580032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Identity Claims Dataset, 1946-2021 战争问题相关性（ICOW）身份索赔数据集，1946-2021 年

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241268838

Paul R Hensel, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Andrew P Owsiak, Krista E Wiegand

引用次数: 0

Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset 介绍拉丁美洲跨国监测（LATS）数据集

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241268837

Matias Spektor, Marcos Ross Fernandes, Lucas de Oliveira Paes, João Victor Dalla Pola, Vitor Loureiro Sion

{"title":"Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset","authors":"Matias Spektor, Marcos Ross Fernandes, Lucas de Oliveira Paes, João Victor Dalla Pola, Vitor Loureiro Sion","doi":"10.1177/00223433241268837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241268837","url":null,"abstract":"Transnational surveillance is a powerful tool in the arsenal of autocrats the world over. Despite its pervasive use in extraterritorial coercion, the systematic study of surveillance of regime opponents beyond national borders remains underdeveloped in political science, primarily due to limited data availability. To help fill this gap, we constructed the Latin American Transnational Surveillance dataset, a micro-level dataset based on declassified foreign surveillance reports produced between 1966 and 1986 by autocratic Brazil. Latin American Transnational Surveillance records the identity, locations, social ties and political activism of 17,000 individual targets of transnational surveillance, the vast majority of whom were tracked in neighbouring countries across Latin America. Drawing on these abundant data, we empirically explore existing theoretical insights about the motivations, methods and consequences of transnational surveillance, a task that would be difficult to do using other sources. We also leverage social network analysis to showcase potential applications of Latin American Transnational Surveillance in the testing of collective-action theories of transnational political violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"141 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0