Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第5页

Management of Frontal Sinus Fractures at a Level 1 Trauma Center: Retrospective Study and Review of the Literature. 一级创伤中心额窦骨折的处理：回顾性研究和文献综述。

IF 0.9 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/19433875231155727

Kimberly Oslin, Meryam Shikara, Joshua Yoon, Pharibe Pope, Kelly Bridgham, Suneet Waghmarae, Andrea Hebert, Fan Liang, Kalpesh Vakharia, Natalie Justicz

{"title":"Management of Frontal Sinus Fractures at a Level 1 Trauma Center: Retrospective Study and Review of the Literature.","authors":"Kimberly Oslin, Meryam Shikara, Joshua Yoon, Pharibe Pope, Kelly Bridgham, Suneet Waghmarae, Andrea Hebert, Fan Liang, Kalpesh Vakharia, Natalie Justicz","doi":"10.1177/19433875231155727","DOIUrl":"10.1177/19433875231155727","url":null,"abstract":"Study design: Case series.Objective: This retrospective review of frontal sinus fractures aims to describe our current experience managing these fractures at an urban level I trauma center.Methods: An institutional database of 2081 patients who presented with maxillofacial fractures on computed tomography face/sinus in 2019 was queried for all patients with traumatic frontal sinus fractures. Demographics, trauma-related history, management approach, and follow-up data were collected and analyzed.Results: Sixty-three (7.3%) patients had at least one fracture involving the frontal sinus. The most common etiologies were assaults, falls, and motor vehicle accidents. Surgical repair was performed in 26.8% of patients with frontal sinus fractures, and the other 73.2% were observed. Fractures that were displaced, comminuted, obstructive of the frontal sinus outflow tract, or associated with a dural tear or cerebrospinal fluid leak were more likely to be operative.Conclusions: The majority of frontal sinus fractures in this study were treated with observation. Despite advances in transnasal endoscopic approaches, many surgeons still rely on open approaches to repair frontal sinus fractures.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"59 1","pages":"24-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10874201/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73095361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cyber-enabled influence operations as a ‘center of gravity’ in cyberconflict: The example of Russian foreign interference in the 2016 US federal election 网络影响行动是网络冲突的 "重心"：以俄罗斯干预 2016 年美国联邦大选为例

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231225814

Jelena Vićić, Erik Gartzke

{"title":"Cyber-enabled influence operations as a ‘center of gravity’ in cyberconflict: The example of Russian foreign interference in the 2016 US federal election","authors":"Jelena Vićić, Erik Gartzke","doi":"10.1177/00223433231225814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231225814","url":null,"abstract":"Russia’s cyber-enabled influence operations (CEIO) have garnered significant public, academic and policy interest. 126 million Americans were reportedly exposed to Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 US election on Facebook. Indeed, to the extent that such efforts shape political outcomes, they may prove far more consequential than other, more flamboyant forms of cyber conflict. Importantly, CEIOs highlight the human dimension of cyber conflict. Focused on ‘hacking human minds’ and affecting individuals behind keyboards, as opposed to hacking networked systems, CEIOs represent an emergent form of state cyber activity. Importantly, data for studying CEIOs are often publicly available. We employ semantic network analysis (SNA) to assess data seldom analyzed in cybersecurity research – the text of actual advertisements from a prominent CEIO. We examine the content, as well as the scope and scale of the Russian-orchestrated social media campaign. While often described as ‘disinformation,’ our analysis shows that the information utilized in the Russian CEIO was generally factually correct. Further, it appears that African Americans, not white conservatives, were the target demographic that Russia sought to influence. We conclude with speculation, based on our findings, about the likely motives for the CEIO.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"94 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139988582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Election violence prevention during democratic transitions: A field experiment with youth and police in Liberia 在民主过渡时期预防选举暴力：利比里亚青年和警察的实地实验

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231211770

Lindsey Pruett, Alex Dyzenhaus, Sabrina Karim, Dao Freeman

{"title":"Election violence prevention during democratic transitions: A field experiment with youth and police in Liberia","authors":"Lindsey Pruett, Alex Dyzenhaus, Sabrina Karim, Dao Freeman","doi":"10.1177/00223433231211770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231211770","url":null,"abstract":"During highly uncertain, post-conflict elections, police officers and youth-wing party activists often engage in low-intensity electoral violence, which cannot be readily explained by national-level, institutional, elite-level strategic incentives for violence. Responding to calls to examine ‘non-strategic’ election violence, this article examines both the key actors most likely to perpetrate violence on-the-ground, and the micro-level perceptions underlying their decisions. In post-conflict contexts, police and youth-wing party activists operate within uncertain, information-poor and weakly institutionalized settings. Consequently, their pre-existing attitudes towards the use of violence, democracy, electoral institutions and towards other political actors influence how and when they engage in electoral violence. We proposed two different paths for reducing this uncertainty and improving attitudes: a) civic engagement programs and b) experience with ‘crucial’ elections, which we defined as the first post-conflict election following the withdrawal of external guarantors of electoral security. We employed a unique, locally led field experiment and panel data collected during the 2017 Liberian election to demonstrate how a ‘crucial election’ improved attitudes of both police and youth activists, while civic engagement programming did not. The findings suggested that elections following major structural reforms may reinforce democratization by improving the attitudes of the actors most likely to participate in violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Allies and diffusion of state military cybercapacity 盟国和国家军事网络能力的扩散

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241226559

Nadiya Kostyuk

引用次数: 0

The effects of state presence on the mental mapping of security: Evidence from an experiment in Kashmir 国家存在对安全心理映射的影响：克什米尔实验的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231220272

Yelena Biberman, Christopher B Mann

{"title":"The effects of state presence on the mental mapping of security: Evidence from an experiment in Kashmir","authors":"Yelena Biberman, Christopher B Mann","doi":"10.1177/00223433231220272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231220272","url":null,"abstract":"What is the relationship between governance and security? What impact, if any, does state presence have on civilians’ perceptions of security in militarized conflict zones? The existing literature suggests that government control over a restive region means order and security for the local population. We propose a ‘mental mapping’ framework for the relationship between state presence and security perceptions in militarized ethnic peripheries, drawing on prior research in urban planning about how attitudes are shaped by living environments. We use a survey experiment to measure the effect of the physical presence of government institutions on civilians’ sense of how safe they imagine their city to be, demonstrating a mental mapping mechanism between the physical presence of the state and perceptions of safety. We show that residents who encounter images of state institutions on a map of Srinagar – the largest city and summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir, India – are more likely to perceive their city as less secure than those who encounter a map without images or a placebo map. This experimental evidence implies that government security presence is not always perceived as security by the civilian population.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139938975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study 网络行动如何减少升级压力：来自战争游戏实验研究的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231219440

Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, Sam Whitt

{"title":"How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study","authors":"Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano, Sam Whitt","doi":"10.1177/00223433231219440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231219440","url":null,"abstract":"Cyber operations ranging from deception and espionage to disruption and high-end degradation have become a central feature of modern statecraft in the digital age, yet we lack a clear understanding of how decision-makers employ and respond to cyber operations in times of crisis. Our research provides theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for understanding how decision-makers react to cyber triggers and utilize cyber responses during crises. Specifically, we argue that the availability of cyber response creates off-ramps for non-escalatory engagement. Based on experimental wargames involving rival states with power parity in militarized disputes and randomized cyber triggers and response options, we find the availability of cyber response options reduces escalatory behavior via a substitution mechanism. In the absence of cyber response options, however, participants pursue more conventional, escalatory actions, regardless of the triggering mechanism. Our findings underscore how enhancing the availability of cyber response options might reduce strategic escalation risks and offer the space to bargain during periods of conflict.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"51 12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139938961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How the process of discovering cyberattacks biases our understanding of cybersecurity 发现网络攻击的过程如何使我们对网络安全的理解产生偏差

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231217687

Harry Oppenheimer

{"title":"How the process of discovering cyberattacks biases our understanding of cybersecurity","authors":"Harry Oppenheimer","doi":"10.1177/00223433231217687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231217687","url":null,"abstract":"Social scientists do not directly study cyberattacks; they draw inferences from attack reports that are public and visible. Like human rights violations or war casualties, there are missing cyberattacks that researchers have not observed. The existing approach is to either ignore missing data and assume they do not exist or argue that reported attacks accurately represent the missing events. This article is the first to detail the steps between attack, discovery and public report to identify sources of bias in cyber data. Visibility bias presents significant inferential challenges for cybersecurity – some attacks are easy to observe or claimed by attackers, while others take a long time to surface or are carried out by actors seeking to hide their actions. The article argues that missing attacks in public reporting likely share features of reported attacks that take the longest to surface. It builds on datasets of cyberattacks by or against Five Eyes (an intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) governments and adds new data on when attacks occurred, when the media first reported them, and the characteristics of attackers and techniques. Leveraging survival models, it demonstrates how the delay between attack and disclosure depends on both the attacker’s identity (state or non-state) and the technical characteristics of the attack (whether it targets information confidentiality, integrity, or availability). The article argues that missing cybersecurity events are least likely to be carried out by non-state actors or target information availability. Our understanding of ‘persistent engagement,’ relative capabilities, ‘intelligence contests’ and cyber coercion rely on accurately measuring restraint. This article’s findings cast significant doubt on whether researchers have accurately measured and observed restraint, and informs how others should consider external validity. This article has implications for our understanding of data bias, empirical cybersecurity research and secrecy in international relations.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements 政府间组织阴影下的内战调解：通往全面和平协定之路

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231211766

Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi

{"title":"Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements","authors":"Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi","doi":"10.1177/00223433231211766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231211766","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country’s memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139938941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gendering hawkishness in the war room: Evidence from Pakistani politicians 战争室中的鹰派性别化：来自巴基斯坦政治家的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231211762

Fahd Humayun

{"title":"Gendering hawkishness in the war room: Evidence from Pakistani politicians","authors":"Fahd Humayun","doi":"10.1177/00223433231211762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231211762","url":null,"abstract":"Can representation in foreign policy deliberations – in particular, increased female representation – impact deliberators’ support for interstate conflict resolution? While existing work on gender representation in IR suggests that increased female representation should moderate intragroup hawkishness, making conflict resolution more viable, I offer empirical evidence that qualifies this idea, based on a survey experiment on 149 male and 55 female elite Pakistani legislators. Politicians of both sexes were randomly assigned to ‘listen in’ on a hypothetical national security deliberation that was either all-male or gender-mixed. I find that politicians’ decisionmaking in these hypothetical committees was informed simultaneously by notions of committee competence and by inferences about the social desirability of hawkish outcomes in deliberative settings. Specifically, respondents assigned to gender-mixed committees became less supportive of external conflict resolution. I show how different mechanisms accounted for this increased hawkishness for men and women. Female politicians assigned to gender-mixed committees became more conscious and wary of how their participation, the result of increased representation, would be perceived, compelling them to opt for more hawkish policies. Male politicians, in contrast, attempted to overcompensate for the increased visibility of female representation by resorting to greater levels of aggression.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139939020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

If it bleeps it leads? Media coverage on cyber conflict and misperception 如果它哔哔作响，它就会引导？媒体对网络冲突和误解的报道

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1177/00223433231220264

Christos Makridis, Lennart Maschmeyer, Max Smeets

{"title":"If it bleeps it leads? Media coverage on cyber conflict and misperception","authors":"Christos Makridis, Lennart Maschmeyer, Max Smeets","doi":"10.1177/00223433231220264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231220264","url":null,"abstract":"What determines media coverage on cyber conflict (CC)? Media bias fostering misperception is a well-established problem in conflict reporting. Because of the secrecy and complexity surrounding cyber operations (COs), where most data moreover come from marketing publications by private sector firms, this problem is likely to be especially pronounced in reporting on cyber threats. Because media reporting shapes public perception, such bias can shape conflict dynamics and outcomes with potentially destabilizing consequences. Yet little research has examined media bias systematically. This study connects existing literature on media reporting bias with the CC literature to formulate four theoretical explanations for variation in reporting on COs based on four corresponding characteristics of a CO. We introduce a new dataset of COs reporting by the private sector, which we call the Cyber Conflict Media Coverage Dataset, and media reporting on each of these operations. Consequently, we conduct a statistical analysis to identify which of these characteristics correlate with reporting quantity. This analysis shows that the use of novel techniques, specifically zero-day exploits, is a highly significant predictor of coverage quantity. Operations targeting the military or financial sector generate less coverage. We also find that cyber effect operations tend to receive more coverage compared to espionage, but this result is not statistically significant. Nonetheless, the predictive models explain limited variation in news coverage. These findings indicate that COs are treated differently in the media than other forms of conflict, and help explain persistent threat perception among the public despite the absence of catastrophic cyberattacks.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139938939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0