{"title":"The geography of justice: neighborhood dynamics of war crimes trials","authors":"Sam R Bell,Risa Kitagawa","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Do attempts at accountability for war crimes in one state affect government behavior in another? A growing scholarship addresses the deterrence potential of human rights prosecutions. We examine whether deterrence extends beyond state borders, and why. We develop a theory of “neighborhood trials”—criminal proceedings against defendants in geographically and socially proximate states—and leaders’ wartime behavior. We find that whereas a trial conducted in a neighboring state’s domestic judiciary predicts reduced civilian killings in an ongoing conflict, an international neighborhood trial increases, rather than deters, violence. We adjudicate causal mechanisms with new fine-grained data on the International Criminal Court’s activities. Early-stage interventions in the neighborhood may reinforce the image of a toothless court, emboldening observing leaders. Our findings suggest that although trials may deter local violence, their cross-border effects are contingent. The study informs broader research on the diffusion of state practices, transitional justice, and backlash against international institutions.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"144 1","pages":"791-803"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hate to lose more than love to win: relational status decline and interstate conflict","authors":"Seulah Choi","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite extensive scholarly attention to the relationship between status concerns and interstate conflict, no clear consensus has emerged. This is partly due to persistent theoretical and methodological limitations. Most existing research has focused almost exclusively on status inconsistency—a mismatch between a state’s material capabilities and the recognition it receives—as the primary source of dissatisfaction, thereby overlooking alternative pathways. Drawing on insights from psychology and sociology, I argue that status concerns arise not only from such mismatches; they may also emerge when states perceive their standing to be deteriorating over time. I focus in particular on relational status decline, defined as a state’s decreasing embeddedness across multiple, compositionally distinct communities within diplomatic networks. States undergoing such relational decline are more likely to take risks and initiate conflict. To capture these dynamics, I employ a novel link-based community detection method that moves beyond traditional approaches by identifying multiple, potentially overlapping status reference communities. This empirical innovation captures the relational and multilayered nature of international recognition, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of a state’s position in the global hierarchy. Analyzing nearly 200 years of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs), I find that relational status decline significantly increases the likelihood of conflict initiation.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":"877-888"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Develop the countryside to stabilize the cities: the downstream effects of rural development assistance in Afghanistan","authors":"Andrew J Glubzinski","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Does development assistance reduce violence in conflict zones? The case of Afghanistan strongly informs the scholarly literature on this. However, existing empirical frameworks are not grounded in theories of insurgent mobility and, as a result, fail to examine the downstream effects of development assistance projects. I propose that Afghanistan's environment created incentives for insurgents to project violence from rural areas into nearby urban centers, necessitating rural development assistance to disrupt urban violence. Using Asia Foundation Afghanistan survey data from districts with both urban and rural populations, aggregated to the province-year level, I find that projects targeting rural areas were associated with reduced violence downstream in nearby urban areas, whereas urban development assistance did not significantly impact levels of urban violence. These findings suggest development assistance may only reduce violence when projects are situated near areas of insurgent support, and the reduction in violence may only be evident when empirical models enable estimating downstream effects.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"4 1","pages":"967-980"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introducing the Coercive Recruitment of Adults Dataset (CROAD), 1990–2021","authors":"Nina M Cadorin","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Armed groups rely on recruitment to sustain their organizations, yet most research on forced recruitment focuses on children. Far less attention has been given to the coercive recruitment of adults, even though adults constitute the majority of rebel members. This article introduces the Coercive Recruitment of Adults Dataset (CROAD), a new cross-sectional dataset covering 390 rebel organizations active in civil wars between 1990 and 2021 that use coercion to recruit adults. CROAD features two forms of coercive recruitment (forced recruitment and conscription), records public pledges to end these practices, and includes additional variables. The dataset can be easily combined with other data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). This article introduces the dataset, presents descriptive statistics, replicates a study on forced recruitment and wartime rape, and highlights avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"73 1","pages":"1009-1017"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Researching human rights violations: Assessing research-related stress among research assistants","authors":"Dara Kay Cohen, Cassy Dorff","doi":"10.1177/00223433251370495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251370495","url":null,"abstract":"How does participating in research on difficult topics affect research staff? While investigations of research-related stress (RRS) have increased in recent years, most are focused on researchers’ direct interactions with survivors during field-based research. Less is known about the consequences of intensive research based on primary and secondary sources such as human rights reports and news sources. We surveyed over 100 current and former research assistants who worked on large-scale human rights abuse and political violence data coding projects. Using an ethics-based framework of balancing risks and benefits, we evaluated both the self-reported harms and benefits of this coding work. We find that signs of stress are common; 88% of respondents reported experiencing at least one indicator of such stress. At the same time, nearly all respondents reported their experience was more positive than negative, along with numerous benefits, such as gaining new perspectives and research skills. This study provides some of the first systematic empirical evidence regarding desk-research-based RRS and has implications for the ethics and practice of conducting research and directing research teams studying challenging topics.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The conditions for reducing electoral violence through constitutional reform","authors":"Gudlaug Olafsdottir","doi":"10.1177/00223433251371834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251371834","url":null,"abstract":"Constitution-making is promoted by the international community as a means to encourage democratization and peaceful politics. However, there is a dearth of studies investigating the conditions under which constitutional replacement can induce such positive outcomes. Notably, many constitutional reforms enhance the power of semi-autocratic leaders or institutionalize democratic backsliding. Since party representatives often participate as negotiators in constitution-making processes, and political parties are key perpetrators of electoral violence, this study suggests that constitutional reform can constrain electoral violence if the process involves negotiated agreement between political elites and the reform includes measures that increase executive constraints. I test this claim through a matched analysis of 155 constitutional reforms from 1946 to 2015. The analysis shows that constitutional replacements that result from negotiated agreements between representatives of distinct groups and constrain the executive’s ability to enact a state of emergency are associated with lower levels of ensuing government-perpetrated violence. By contrast, these measures have no association with electoral violence carried out by non-government actors, suggesting that reform of formal institutions may be less effective in constraining violence by other actors in society. The findings have significant implications for the design of constitution-making processes that promote peaceful government conduct while highlighting the need for alternative measures to constrain other electoral violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Not-so-average after all: Individual vs. aggregate effects in substantive research","authors":"Marius Radean, Andreas Beger","doi":"10.1177/00223433251341805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251341805","url":null,"abstract":"In non-linear models, the effect of a given variable cannot be gauged directly from the associated coefficient. Instead, researchers typically compute the average effect in the population to assess the substantive significance of the variable of interest. Based on the <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">average</jats:italic> response, analysts often make policy recommendations that are to be implemented at the <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">individual</jats:italic> level (i.e. the unit of analysis level). Such extrapolations, however, can lead to gross generalizations or incorrect inferences. The reason for this is that the mean may obscure a large variation in individual effects, in which case the real-world applicability of the average value is limited. Correctly interpreting the average response may prevent unwarranted extrapolations but does not solve the problem of the lack of practical relevance. Particularly when cases carry special meaning (e.g. countries), the political and socioeconomic relevance of research findings should be assessed at the individual level. This article outlines the conditions under which aggregation to mean is problematic, and advocates a case-centered approach to model evaluation. Specifically, we advise researchers to compute and report the quantity of interest for each case in the data. Only by seeing the full spread of cases can the reader assess how well the average summarizes the population. Our approach allows researchers to draw more meaningful inferences, and makes the connection between research and practical applications more realistic.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145554680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexandra Krendelsberger, Francisco Alpizar, Lotje de Vries, Han van Dijk
{"title":"Don’t blame it on ethnicity: The role of group identities and climate risks in farmer–herder relations in Senegal","authors":"Alexandra Krendelsberger, Francisco Alpizar, Lotje de Vries, Han van Dijk","doi":"10.1177/00223433251361301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251361301","url":null,"abstract":"In the Sahel region, disputes between farmers and herders are often linked to religious, ethnic, and resource conflicts. Farmer–herder relations are put under pressure by negative out-group perceptions and affected by resource constraints, particularly those created by changes in climatic conditions. This study makes two key contributions: first, it examines the impact of in-group and out-group identities on farmer–herder relations under uncertainty; and second, it integrates qualitative and quantitative methods. In this study, a public good experiment was conducted with 332 farmers and herders in Senegal comparing in-group and out-group identity priming effects under individual and collective risks. The experiment was paired with 14 in-depth focus group discussions (FGDs) to elicit key mechanisms for in-group and out-group cooperation. The results show that priming out-group membership reduces cooperation towards out-group members, especially among farmers. Interestingly, herders reduced cooperation in response to in-group primes, likely attributable to rivalry between local and mobile herders. FGDs revealed that negative perceptions of mobile herders (transhumant pastoralists) drive this behavior. Additionally, introducing collective risks, such as those resulting from climate change, worsens in-group–out-group biases. The findings highlight the need to address negative stereotyping of mobile herders to prevent escalations of conflicts in relatively peaceful areas like Senegal, where farmers and herders regularly interact.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145447133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"State repression and elite support for international human rights: Evidence from South Korean legislators’ democratization experiences","authors":"James D Kim","doi":"10.1177/00223433251360904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251360904","url":null,"abstract":"Are politicians who have previously experienced human rights violations more supportive of promoting human rights abroad? Much of the literature on human rights advocacy has centered on actors at the international or state levels. By contrast, this article focuses on individual politicians and their personal life experiences. Understanding variations in commitment to global human rights among political leaders within a country is particularly important in legislative resolutions where each legislator’s roll-call vote directly impacts a bill’s outcome. I argue that legislators with firsthand experience of state repression are more likely to support promoting international human rights. Their shared experience with foreign victims fosters greater empathy and a moral obligation to stand with them. They also have electoral motivations, as human rights promotion is an issue of their ownership and aligns with voter expectations. I test my theory using original micro-level data on South Korean legislators’ state repression experiences during the country’s democratization in the 1980s and their roll-call votes on global human rights between 2020 and 2023. I address two major barriers to inference, generational and selection effects, by comparing politicians from the same generation who participated in protests based on the intensity of violence they experienced. I find that those who experienced severe forms of repression, such as torture, injury, and imprisonment, are more likely to support promoting human rights in other countries than those who faced lower-level repression. The results suggest that prior repressed experience is an important source of political elites’ preferences for international human rights, a topic that has received little attention in previous research.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145441167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Explaining election violence: A meta-analysis","authors":"Richard W Frank","doi":"10.1177/00223433251360191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251360191","url":null,"abstract":"The literature on election violence lacks a consistent set of core predictors for why certain elections are violent and others are not. Between 2010 and 2022, 97 scholars published 65 peer-reviewed journal articles on this topic using quantitative research designs involving over 440 predictor variables. As a distinct research area, therefore, the study of election violence has reached a size and maturity where it is useful to take stock. Through a meta-analysis of 581 models, this article makes three key contributions. First, it finds that 13 of 44 variables consistently predict election violence, which highlights both the field’s fragmentation and most promising avenues for future research. Second, it reveals that election-specific factors like fraud and competitiveness are more reliable predictors than commonly studied structural conditions like democracy or economic development. Third, it shows that many predictors operate differently at national and subnational levels, with only population size and domestic conflict significant at both levels. This article’s findings suggest a greater focus is needed on election-specific triggers, explicit discussions about perpetrators and targets, and measurement issues.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145434956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}