Journal of Peace Research最新文献

{"title":"Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model","authors":"Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, Thomas Chadefaux","doi":"10.1177/00223433251330790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251330790","url":null,"abstract":"Existing models for predicting conflict fatalities frequently produce conservative forecasts that gravitate towards the mean. While these approaches have a low average prediction error, they offer limited insights into temporal variations in conflict-related fatalities. Yet, accounting for variability is particularly relevant for policymakers, providing an indication on when to intervene. In this article, we introduce a novel risk-taking methodology, the ‘Shape finder’, designed to capture variability in fatality data, or rather the sudden surges and declines in the number of deaths over time. The method involves isolating historically analogous sequences of fatalities to create a reference repository. Comparing the shape of the input sequence to the historical references, the most similar historical cases are selected. Predictions are then generated using the average future outcomes of the selected matches. The Shape finder is derived from the theoretical understanding that strategic and adaptive interactions between the government and a non-state armed group produce recurring temporal patterns in fatality data, which are indicative of broader developments. In this article, we demonstrate that our approach maintains high accuracy while significantly enhancing the ability to predict shifts, surges, and declines in conflict fatalities over time. We show that combining the Shape finder with existing approaches, the Violence Early-Warning System ensemble, achieves a lower mean squared error and better accounts for variability in fatality data. The Shape finder methodology performs particularly well for high intensity cases, or rather country-months with substantial armed violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supporting reparations after armed conflict: How discursive ‘memory battles’ affect political solidarity with Guatemalan Indigenous survivors","authors":"Elke Evrard, Gretel Mejía Bonifazi","doi":"10.1177/00223433241312069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241312069","url":null,"abstract":"Literature on survivor mobilization in transitional justice contexts has largely overlooked the relevance and dynamics of solidarity-based support by non-victimized groups. This article studies the relation between contentious processes of discursive ‘memory-making’ and public support for reparations in post-conflict Guatemala. Using a nationwide survey-embedded experiment with 300 respondents, we measure how contrasting representations of the temporality of harm and prospects for peace – drawn from elite versus survivor narratives – influence political solidarity with Indigenous survivors and support for their reparation demands. Findings show that while perceptions of survivors’ continued suffering and reparations’ peace-building potential are key predictors of solidarity and support, the contrasting narrative primes did not significantly influence these perceptions or resulting attitudes. The survey’s open-ended responses suggest that, in engaging with prevalent public discourses, respondents have developed relatively stable yet highly diverse interpretations of the necessity and ability of reparations to address social, psychological, and economic harms, and to promote beneficial outcomes for society at large. Mapping these responses onto the quantitative scores indicates that solidary support is more likely to emerge when non-victimized groups situate conflict-related harms within an ongoing history of structural violence and position reparations as building blocks for recognition, development and social integration – signalling the importance of discursive and expressive dynamics in public engagement with reparation processes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The end of rebel rule: Biased peacekeeping interventions and social order","authors":"Jason Hartwig","doi":"10.1177/00223433251322668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251322668","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2001, the United Nations Security Council has increasingly authorized interventions in support of a government. However, the potential impact of this trend on civil war processes is underexamined. I argue that biased peacekeeping interventions can undermine social order when replacing rebel territorial control. Interventions become associated with weak and predatory client governments, fail to build trust within communities, and create power vacuums. In the absence of a perceived impartial arbiter, mobilized groups turn to violence over disputes previously solved by the rebels. I test this theory by examining the impact of offensive operations by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Using novel data and a mixed-methods approach, I demonstrate AMISOM operations displacing rebel rule produced a significant increase in intercommunal conflict. These findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of multilateral interventions explicitly supporting one side. They further suggest biased interventions should focus on first improving governance before extending government control or prioritize shaping conditions for negotiated settlements.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"War, social preferences, and anti-outgroup behavior: Experimental evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Sam Whitt, Douglas Page","doi":"10.1177/00223433251318931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251318931","url":null,"abstract":"How does war affect social preferences toward people with conflict-related outgroup identities? While the literature often reports prosocial treatment of ingroups, such benevolence is rarely seen toward potential outgroups. We consider the case of Ukraine, where many people with Russian identity markers reside. We ask whether people in Ukraine who identify as Russian by ethnicity or language have become stigmatized following Russia’s invasion. To measure social preferences, we introduce a variant of the Equality Equivalency Test (EET) as a third-party dictator game, where respondents decide between equal or unequal allocations of money involving two recipients. We run the EET in a January 2023 nationwide survey in Ukraine where dictator recipients are randomized by Ukrainian and Russian ethnicity, language, and/or Ukrainian civic identity. We also randomize priming on conflict-related victimization experiences. Despite widespread devastation across Ukraine by Russian forces, the majority of respondents, who identify as ethnic Ukrainians, treat Russian identifiers benevolently (fairly) relative to Ukrainians, and only a minority of respondents behaved malevolently (spitefully) toward them. Priming on victimization has minimal negative effects on benevolence. Our findings reinforce research on rising civic nationalism in Ukraine, transcending ethnolinguistic understandings of identity and belonging. Our results have implications for war as an instrument of nation-building and social cohesion, bolstering Ukraine’s ability to mitigate internal divisions amid Russia’s invasion.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Women’s roles and reproductive violence within armed rebellions","authors":"Lindsey A Goldberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433251324342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251324342","url":null,"abstract":"Why do armed rebel movements perpetrate intragroup reproductive violence? While extant research predominantly focuses on wartime sexual violence against civilians, the targeting of rebel women with reproductive violence remains underexplored. My research contributes new insights on how women’s idealized roles within armed rebellions shape the likelihood of these groups engaging in various forms of intragroup reproductive violence. I theorize that forced abortions are more likely to occur within rebellions that idealize women’s contributions through masculine duties like frontline combat because in these cases, pregnancy is perceived as antithetical to women’s expected contributions to the rebel movement. Conversely, forced pregnancies are more likely to occur within rebel movements that idealize women’s feminine support roles away from the frontlines because in these cases, pregnancy and motherhood are often part of rebel women’s expected contributions. I provide illustrative examples of armed rebellions characterized by these dynamics, and I introduce novel data on intragroup reproductive violence across a global sample of rebel organizations. Using this new dataset, I statistically evaluate my hypotheses and find empirical support for my claims. This research focuses on gender-based violence that occurs within rebel organizations, providing new data and new insights regarding the intragroup gender dynamics that promote reproductive violence against rebel women.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shock and awe: Economic sanctions and relative military spending","authors":"Yuleng Zeng, Andreas Dür","doi":"10.1177/00223433251331486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251331486","url":null,"abstract":"Economic sanctions could cause substantial harm to target states, forcing them to undertake tough guns-versus-butter trade-offs. Although existing research has argued that sanctioned countries reduce their military spending in absolute terms, it is unclear whether they do trade more guns for butter in relative terms. We argue that in the short run, sanctioned states have an incentive to channel proportionally more resources to the military for two primary reasons. First, this allows them to signal their resolve not to back down to sanctioning states and potentially maintain their bargaining leverage. Second, higher relative military spending can strengthen leaders’ hold on power by improving their ability to co-opt and repress political opponents. However, this combined incentive to signal resolve and consolidate power weakens after the initial economic and political shocks. As such, we also expect that the increase in relative military spending will diminish gradually. To test our theory, we propose a new measurement of sanction shocks that carefully accounts for the salience, costs, and duration of different sanction episodes. Using this measure, we apply dynamic panel modeling to examine the military spending of 166 countries from 1962 to 2015. We find strong support for our theoretical expectations. In response to sanction shocks, target states choose to spend proportionally more on the military; this increase peaks in the first few years and dissipates over time. These results hold important implications for research on both economic sanctions and military spending.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Malnutrition and violent conflict in a heating world: A mediation analysis on the climate–conflict nexus in Nigeria","authors":"Anna Belli, Victor Villa, Marina Mastrorillo, Antonio Scognamillo, Chun Song, Adriana Ignaciuk, Grazia Pacillo","doi":"10.1177/00223433251318566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251318566","url":null,"abstract":"Climate variability is increasingly gaining recognition as a factor exacerbating risks to peace in Africa, particularly in contexts characterized by weak institutions and fragile agri-food systems. Existing literature has highlighted the intricate indirect pathways that can lead to increasing conflicts following a climatic shock, including reduced agricultural yields, increased food insecurity, and other socio-economic channels that are highly context-specific as well as difficult to quantify. This study investigates the nexus between climate variability (proxied by temperature anomalies) and violent conflicts as mediated by child acute malnutrition in Nigeria. Starting from previous quantitative analyses that implicitly assumed the existence of a singular transmission pathway linking climate variability to conflict, this study employs a structural equation model that accommodates the presence of multiple, albeit unobserved, mediating factors. In doing so, it pioneers the use of children’s nutritional indicators as mediating factors to capture the multidimensional nature of the climate–conflict relationship. The novel approach proposed for this analysis increases the accuracy of estimating the indirect impacts of climate variability on conflict, as mediated by child nutritional outcomes, and contributes to the literature linked to the humanitarian, development and peace nexus. From a policy perspective, our findings aim to inform and support identifying policies and interventions aimed at mitigating the threat posed by climate variability to human security through the nutrition channel.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143945748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trained to rebel: Rebel leaders’ military training and the dynamics of civil conflicts","authors":"Juliana Tappe Ortiz","doi":"10.1177/00223433251333389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251333389","url":null,"abstract":"Rebel leaders can prolong civil wars. Although past research has examined how rebel groups have shaped civil wars, little attention has been paid to rebel leaders. I argue that civil wars last longer and are less likely to be terminated in government-favorable outcomes when rebel leaders with training in a nonstate armed group are in charge, in contrast to leaders with no training or state military service. Nonstate training makes leaders more capable of continuing the conflict with few weapons and resources and more willing to persevere because of their combatant socialization. The rebel leaders trained in creativity and perseverance are more likely to make strategic choices that heighten bargaining challenges and the risk of bargaining failure thus leading to longer wars. I test propositions through a quantitative analysis of all rebel leaders in civil conflicts from 1989 to 2015. The analysis is supplemented with a qualitative discussion based on personal interviews with top-level leaders of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143932474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty","authors":"Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D’Orazio, Hannah Frank, Cornelius Fritz, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra Malaga, Marius Mehrl, Nils W Metternich, Daniel Mittermaier, David Muchlinski, Hannes Mueller, Christian Oswald, Paola Pisano, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Lotta Rüter, Thomas Schincariol, Benjamin Seimon, Elena Siletti, Marco Tagliapietra, Chandler Thornhill, Johan Vegelius, Julian Walterskirchen","doi":"10.1177/00223433241300862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241300862","url":null,"abstract":"Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fail to represent the inherent uncertainty in the distribution of conflict fatalities. Yet, current early warning systems are preponderantly focused on providing point estimates, while efforts to forecast conflict fatalities as a probability distribution remain sparse. Building on the predecessor VIEWS competition, we organize a prediction challenge to encourage endeavours in this direction. We invite researchers across multiple disciplinary fields, from conflict studies to computer science, to forecast the number of fatalities in state-based armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP ‘best’ estimates aggregated to two units of analysis (country-months and PRIO-GRID-months), with estimates of uncertainty. This article introduces the goal and motivation behind the prediction challenge, presents a set of evaluation metrics to assess the performance of the forecasting models, describes the benchmark models which the contributions are evaluated against, and summarizes the salient features of the submitted contributions.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CORRIGENDUM to Mitigating election violence locally: UN peacekeepers’ election-education campaigns in Côte d’Ivoire by Hannah Smidt","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00223433251324149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251324149","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143915955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}