Journal of Peace Research最新文献

{"title":"It’s not just about jobs: The significance of employment quality for participation in political violence and protests in selected Arab Mediterranean countries","authors":"Kari Paasonen","doi":"10.1177/00223433241261551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241261551","url":null,"abstract":"It is often proposed that the young unemployed are more likely to engage in political violence, conflicts, and protests. One problem in studying the unemployed – especially in the Global South – are the blurred lines between the unemployed, the employed, and those working in the informal sector. Further, the employed are a heterogeneous group so employment quality might also play an important role. To tackle these issues, this study uses a new quantitative dataset, which covers youth in five Middle Eastern and North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. These data provide considerably more fine-grained information about the employment situations of the respondents than the datasets previously used. The study investigates separately two forms of political participation: in political violence and in demonstrations. The regression analyses show that there is no clear difference between the young unemployed and the young employed in their likelihood to participate in the studied political activities. However, some features related to employment matter. Those whose employment status is ambiguous are substantially more likely to participate in demonstrations and political violence than the employed. Among those who work, those who are dissatisfied with their work and those who work fewer hours participate more often in these activities. Income on its own does not seem to have an effect; however, those who have more assets are more likely to participate, and compared to those who feel themselves middle income, those feeling rich or poor are more likely to engage in political violence and demonstrations. The results suggest that instead of thinking in terms of a dichotomy of the employed and unemployed, more emphasis should be placed on understanding the variety of employment situations and employment quality and their impact on political instability.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142415573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divided loyalty: Are broadly recruited militaries less likely to repress nonviolent antigovernment protests?","authors":"Paul L Johnson, Max Z Margulies","doi":"10.1177/00223433241256274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241256274","url":null,"abstract":"This article tests whether social distance between the military and society leads soldiers to refrain from violence against protesters, and how that expectation affects the regime’s decision of whether to deploy the military in the first place. In contrast with previous research that primarily examined aggregated protest campaigns and often in geographically limited samples, this study is conducted at the micro-level using daily event data. It employs the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System dataset to identify more than 36,000 protest-day events in 168 countries between 1997 and 2015, coding whether and how soldiers responded. In addition, this study also demonstrates theoretically and empirically the need to differentiate conscription from the military participation rate as measures of social distance. Contrary to expectations, it does not find evidence that conscription results in a lower likelihood of violence or deters the regime from deploying soldiers to put down protests, and it finds only weak evidence that higher military participation rate results in a lower likelihood of violence. It also finds that conscription increases rather than decreases the likelihood of soldiers being deployed against protests.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping advocacy support: Geographic proximity to outgroups and human rights promotion","authors":"Gino Pauselli","doi":"10.1177/00223433241265057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241265057","url":null,"abstract":"Why do people support promoting human rights? Common explanations center on the characteristics of states or individuals, particularly ideology. In this study, I focus on the role of empathy for outgroups. Contact theory suggests that intergroup contact reduces prejudice and increases support for outgroup members. I argue that empathy for outgroups increases support for defending the rights of foreigners abroad. Testing this argument is challenging given selection biases and the potential confounding effects of high prejudice and alternative norms. I use geocoded public opinion data from 35 African countries to study the level of contact with outgroups and its impact on preferences for promoting rights overseas. I use the geographic distance to the nearest international border and border crossing as a novel measure of contact with outgroups and find that the closer an individual is to an international land border or an international crossing point, the higher their support for preventing human rights abuses in other countries. These results are robust to a battery of covariates, robustness checks, and model specifications. In addition, the study shows that border hardening reduces support for human rights policies, while proximity to international borders is not correlated with other potential confounders such as concerns about security and migration. Overall, this study provides evidence that border zones, despite being the edge of sovereignty, generate stakeholders for human rights.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How critical junctures shape secessionist movement cohesion: Strategies, framing processes, and interorganizational relations before and after the 2017 referendum in Catalonia","authors":"Hans Jonas Gunzelmann","doi":"10.1177/00223433241258368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241258368","url":null,"abstract":"What drives the cohesion of secessionist movements? Previous research emphasized the role of internal and external factors but produced mixed results regarding their effects. This article advances scholarship on this question by examining the role of critical junctures as periods of heightened contingency that can shift movements towards fragmentation or cohesion. It focuses on independence referendums and how states respond to them as important critical junctures, and on how they shape interorganizational relations as a key dimension of movement cohesion. Empirically, it explores the effects of the 2017 referendum in Catalonia using a mixed-methods research design that combines qualitative inquiry with network analyses of protest event data. The network analyses showed that the movement was notably less cohesive in the protest arena after the referendum than during the referendum campaign. Qualitative materials were employed to inductively identify strategy framing processes as key mechanisms to explain this development. Frame alignment around the referendum as a shared goal led to more cohesion during the campaign. After the event, a frame dispute over the meaning of the referendum led to diverging strategies and fragmented the movement, as state repression limited the movement’s room for maneuver. The findings suggest that research on secessionist movement cohesion should pay more attention to critical junctures and how secessionists make sense of them.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To compete or strategically retreat? The global diffusion of reconnaissance strike","authors":"Michael C Horowitz, Joshua A Schwartz","doi":"10.1177/00223433241261566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241261566","url":null,"abstract":"The reconnaissance strike complex is synonymous with modern military power, and prominent realist theories would have predicted rapid proliferation after its successful debut in the Gulf War. Instead, the complex has proliferated slowly. To explain this puzzle, we theorize that interstate security threats significantly impact proliferation, but not in the way traditionally presumed. Although the literature on weapons proliferation has largely assumed a monotonically increasing relationship should hold between the capabilities of a state’s adversaries and a state’s own capability, we draw from the economics literature and game theoretic insights from political science to argue that the relationship should resemble an inverted-U. When states have rivals with moderate reconnaissance strike capabilities, they have security incentives to compete with them. However, when states face highly advanced adversaries, it becomes more difficult to escape or match their competition, making symmetrical acquisition less appealing. While most prior research focuses on narrower aspects of the reconnaissance strike complex like missiles or smart bombs, we test our theory on a novel dataset tracking country-level acquisition of eight aspects of the complex from 1980 to 2017: Ballistic missiles; bombers; cruise missiles; fighter aircraft; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets; precision-guided munitions; satellites; and submarines. We find strong support for our inverted-U argument. States that have rivals with moderate reconnaissance strike capabilities have over double the reconnaissance strike capabilities themselves than states that have rivals with very low or very high capabilities. Our findings hold for broader measures of the complex that closely proxy a state’s general military capabilities, narrower measures of the complex, and alternative measures of general military sophistication, indicating our theory has broad applicability. This article explains why some states invest heavily in conventional capabilities despite an already-large lead over their adversaries, and why other states instead opt to invest in alternatives rather than balancing symmetrically.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142306185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drafting restraint: Are military recruitment policies associated with interstate conflict initiation?","authors":"Max Z Margulies","doi":"10.1177/00223433241255010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241255010","url":null,"abstract":"Are countries that use conscription more restrained in their use of military force? A common argument holds that military conscription restrains leaders from using force because it increases the political cost of war and distributes them more evenly and broadly across the population. Despite this intuition, empirical evidence to support it is at best inconclusive. This article introduces a novel perspective on the relationship between military recruitment (MR) policies and conflict initiation (CI) by arguing that the military’s size relative to society – its military participation rate (MPR) – is an important and overlooked part of this story. MPR is a more direct measure of the population’s exposure to the costs of war, but high MPR may also increase CI by enhancing military capacity. By incorporating MPR into the analysis of CI, both independently and in interaction with conscription, this article provides a more comprehensive understanding of how MR practices shape CI. It tests these new hypotheses about the relationship between MPR, conscription and CI using a variety of time-series models that cover all country-years from 1816 to 2011. The findings do not support the conventional wisdom, instead revealing that neither conscription nor volunteerism is independently associated with restrained initiation of military conflicts abroad. On the contrary, these recruitment practices are more likely to be associated with an increase in the likelihood of CI. These findings indicate that we should be skeptical of traditional arguments that assume conscription leads to restraint in the use of force, either independently or conditional on MPR. These counterintuitive results underscore the need for additional research on the complex relationship between MR practices, civil–military relations and foreign policy.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resolving bargaining problems in civil conflicts: Goals, institutions and negotiations","authors":"Minnie M Joo","doi":"10.1177/00223433241252552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241252552","url":null,"abstract":"Moderate (or ‘limited’) rebel goals and inclusive political institutions have been suggested to increase the chances of rebel–government negotiations. This article attempts to shed light on the politics of rebel–government negotiations by presenting new, systematic data on the scope of rebel goals and demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that it is the interaction of moderate rebel goals and inclusive political institutions – rather than each variable in isolation – that helps disputants overcome bargaining problems and engage in negotiations. Particularly, the article contends that while moderate rebel goals allow the disputants to recognize that negotiations may be mutually beneficial, the presence of a dual commitment problem – where rebel groups and governments are both concerned about the opponent’s commitment to negotiated settlements – hinders them from negotiating. In such cases, the institutional features of polyarchy, defined by Dahl as competitive and inclusive elections accompanied by civil liberties, alleviate this dual commitment problem and induce moderate rebels and the government to follow through with their incentives to negotiate. Statistical results from newly collected data on rebel group goals and rebel–government negotiations support this claim: rebel–government negotiations are significantly more likely to occur when rebel groups espouse moderate goals and the level of polyarchy in a country is sufficiently high. Results indicate that the influence of rebel goals and institutions on negotiations is better understood in conjunction.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142100656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The references of the nations: Introducing a corpus of United Nations General Assembly resolutions since 1946 and their citation network","authors":"Rafael Mesquita, Antonio Pires","doi":"10.1177/00223433241254997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241254997","url":null,"abstract":"This article introduces a novel corpus containing all resolutions adopted by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) from 1946 to 2019, the network of citations between them, and an online tool for exploring them. Resolutions adopted by the organization provide a valuable record of the evolution of multilateralism and political ideas on the global stage. Given that resolutions typically cite past ones, the resulting network of references offers a wealth of information on the UNGA’s most relevant themes over time. This article applies network analysis to the corpus of approximately 18,000 resolutions and 77,000 citations, aiming to answer questions such as: What are the most cited resolutions of all? Are there thematic clusters? And can we delineate historic patterns based on themes prioritized? Our findings show that leading resolutions, such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, stemmed from the early years of the UNGA and created cores around which thematic clusters emerged. We conclude by listing highly cited resolutions and prominent clusters, while also conducting a descriptive exploration of how some of the largest clusters formed. The dominant clusters addressed human rights, development, decolonization and peace and security, and by monitoring their evolution we offer a new, data-intensive account of the interaction between these topics since 1946.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Procedural ethics for social science research: Introducing the Research Ethics Governance dataset","authors":"Rebecca Tapscott, Daniel Rincón Machón","doi":"10.1177/00223433241249352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241249352","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict research is rife with ethical issues, and the field is increasingly reflecting on how to best address these. Recent debates in political science have mainly focused on ethics in practice, leaving questions of procedural ethics to the side. But procedural ethics are important: they are increasingly required across all areas of research, they are the bedrock of institutional approaches to regulating ethics, and they shape ideas about what constitutes ethical research practice. This article introduces the Research Ethics Governance dataset, the first globally comprehensive dataset of national-level ethics regulations. The dataset provides a picture of the status of research ethics regulations and how they pertain to conflict research. While 87% of countries have requirements for ethical review, only 25% extend those regulations to the social sciences. Of countries with no evidence of requirements, nearly half are classed as fragile or conflict-affected states. The data will be useful for scholars concerned with questions of research ethics, as well as those seeking to study the politics of this regulatory structure and its implications for knowledge production.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141994386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moral reasoning and support for punitive violence after crime","authors":"Hannah Baron, Omar García-Ponce, Jorge Olmos Camarillo, Lauren E Young, Thomas Zeitzoff","doi":"10.1177/00223433241249341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241249341","url":null,"abstract":"In contexts marked by high violence and widespread impunity, how do citizens articulate and justify their preferences about crime and punishment? What kind of moral logic and reasoning do they employ when discussing punishments? Does support for punitive punishment derive from moralistic and deontological concerns that perpetrators need to be punished because it is right and proper? Or do people support punitive punishments because they feel they are effective? To address this question, we document and analyze stated preferences for punishment in response to crime from 62 in-depth qualitative interviews with individuals affected by violence in the Mexican state of Michoacán. We conduct a quantitative analysis of how different forms of moral justifications are related to preferred punishments for specific crime events, and a qualitative content analysis to investigate possible mechanisms. We find that two types of moral reasoning are more likely to be used to justify punitive violence: (1) consequentialist reasoning which involves weighing the costs and benefits of an action; (2) and reasoning that dehumanizes accused criminals. Deontological justifications about the right or just action, while extremely common, are used fairly equally across arguments for and against punitive violence. Our study sheds light on the diverse moral frames employed to justify the endorsement of punitive violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141857942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}