Journal of Peace Research最新文献

The demobilizing effect of violent actions and radical-right involvement on public support for protest 暴力行动和激进右翼参与对公众支持抗议的复原效应

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag050

Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti,Eylem Kanol,Sophia Hunger,Swen Hutter

{"title":"The demobilizing effect of violent actions and radical-right involvement on public support for protest","authors":"Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti,Eylem Kanol,Sophia Hunger,Swen Hutter","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag050","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does radicality affect public support for protest? Despite a long-standing scholarly debate about the demobilizing power of radicality, empirical evidence beyond the use of violent action and left-libertarian social movements remains scarce. Therefore, this article advances the debate by examining the effects of two forms of radicality, violent forms of protest and radical protest actors, in the context of a right-authoritarian movement. We employ a novel and comprehensive multistep research design to study these theoretical expectations, integrating original survey and natural experimental evidence. Empirically, we draw on the case of the anti-containment protests in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic, emblematic of the rise of right-authoritarian social movements in contemporary democracies. We examine the role of demonstrator-instigated violence and radical-right involvement in demobilizing sympathizers and likely participants. The empirical findings show that, in contrast to left-libertarian movements, individuals strongly committed to the cause are likely to continue to take to the streets regardless of the presence of violence and radical-right actors. The findings suggest adverse diminishing demobilization effects of radicality in contemporary democracies, which are less pronounced for individuals close to right-authoritarian movements.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"235 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strike when they aren’t looking: great power crises and threats to rule 在他们不注意的时候罢工：大国危机和统治威胁

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-17 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag048

David B Carter,İpek Ece Şener

{"title":"Strike when they aren’t looking: great power crises and threats to rule","authors":"David B Carter,İpek Ece Şener","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Although regime threats such as civil conflict and coup d’état are widely studied, their links to global crises receive little attention. We argue that episodes of instability among great powers ripple through the international system, encouraging violent threats to rule in less powerful states. We assess our arguments with both new and existing indicators of systemic instability and show that periods of economic and security instability among great powers are associated with a heightened risk of both civil conflict onset and regime change coup attempts in smaller states. We further demonstrate important heterogeneity in the risk faced by smaller states by showing that security instability which inflicts a given regime's great power allies drives this statistical association. Our work offers a novel explanation for the emergence of threats to rule, integrating the literatures on great power politics, civil conflict, and coup d’état, while also demonstrating why regime threats not only cluster geographically but also cluster in time. This study has important implications for contemporary international politics and for future conflict research given the widely observed increase in great power competition and systemic instability over the past decade or so.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond coercion: how female political representation shapes sanctions termination 超越胁迫：女性政治代表如何影响制裁终止

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag081

Hoan La

{"title":"Beyond coercion: how female political representation shapes sanctions termination","authors":"Hoan La","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag081","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What explains variation in the duration of international sanctions and the mechanisms through which they are terminated? While the existing literature on sanctions termination focuses on strategic and structural factors, this study introduces a gender-based perspective, arguing that higher female political representation in the target state increases the likelihood of sanctions termination, particularly for sanctions with significant human costs. Two main pathways link women's representation to sanctions outcomes. First, women in leadership positions foster compliance with sender demands by increasing government responsiveness to humanitarian suffering and facilitating collaborative compliance processes. Second, female officeholders influence senders’ strategic calculations by signaling reforms and creating humanitarian pressure, giving senders a reason to lift sanctions. Using event history analysis on panel data of 366 sanctions cases from 1990 to 2018, the study finds that women in executive and legislative roles in target states predict shorter sanction durations, primarily through faster target compliance, while evidence for sender capitulation is more limited.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"482 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The legacy of rebel taxation on post-conflict fiscal capacity 反政府税收对冲突后财政能力的影响

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag084

Andrea Arroyo Petro,Vincenzo Bove,Jessica Di Salvatore,Roberto Nisticò

{"title":"The legacy of rebel taxation on post-conflict fiscal capacity","authors":"Andrea Arroyo Petro,Vincenzo Bove,Jessica Di Salvatore,Roberto Nisticò","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Civil wars often erode state sovereignty, as institutions are replaced or co-opted by armed groups that establish informal governance structures. Among these, rebel taxation emerges as a key tool for financing wartime activities but also for administering territories. In this article, we explore whether wartime rebel taxation shapes post-conflict governments’ fiscal capacity, drawing on cross-national data from post-conflict states in Africa between 2000 and 2015. We emphasize the dual nature of rebel taxation. On the one hand, rebel taxation creates institutions and routines that may support post-conflict enforcement and compliance, especially when rebel groups are part of or co-opted into post-conflict politics. On the other hand, rebel taxation can undermine state authority by entrenching informal systems and introducing an alternative fiscal contract between citizens and non-state actors that may be hard to replace. Our analysis supports the first argument, finding a positive association between rebel taxation and post-conflict tax revenues. This result is especially pronounced in conflicts that ended without decisive military victories, suggesting that complete capitulation of rebels or governments hinders the integration of wartime taxation in post-conflict fiscal bureaucracy. Our findings highlight the enduring impact of rebel taxation on state capacity in post-conflict environments.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The dissent score: using events data to measure dissent when media scrutiny varies 异议评分：使用事件数据来衡量媒体审查不同时的异议

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag027

Carlisle Rainey,Harley Roe,Qing Wang,Nick Dietrich

{"title":"The dissent score: using events data to measure dissent when media scrutiny varies","authors":"Carlisle Rainey,Harley Roe,Qing Wang,Nick Dietrich","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Researchers commonly use measures of dissent or protest in their analyses. Yet a standardized, public, ready-to-use measure does not exist. In this article, we introduce such a measure—what we call the “dissent score.” To create the dissent score, we follow the standard practice in the literature and use the number of dissent events reported in events data sets. However, we make two improvements. First, we adjust for variation in media scrutiny by using the rate of dissent events—the number of dissent events compared to the total number of events reported in the data set. This is important because the total number of events explains about 50% of the variation in the number of dissent events. Second, we use a hierarchical model to partially pool these rates within and across countries. This is important because many places and times have relatively few events recorded; partially pooling reduces the measurement error. We validate the dissent score by showing that it correlates strongly with Fariss’ latent human rights protection score and substantially improves out-of-sample predictions in a reanalysis of a comprehensive model of repression. Further, while raw event counts show no support for the “more dissent in the middle” hypothesis, regime type and the dissent score have the expected inverted-U relationship. We supply the country-year dissent score for 195 countries from 1990 to 2004 in an easy-to-use format. Perhaps more importantly, we also describe our method and supply the computer code so that researchers can extend our method, make adjustments, compute the dissent score for alternative place-times, or apply the idea to new concepts. We also raise important considerations for creators of events data sets; although we focus on dissent, our approach applies broadly to any event type coded from media reports, including international conflict events and terrorism.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Belonging, violence, and natural resource governance: experimental evidence from Mali and Niger 归属感、暴力和自然资源治理：来自马里和尼日尔的实验证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag063

Alma Bezares Calderón,Simon Mercer,Ifeoluwa M Olawole,Matthew K Ribar

{"title":"Belonging, violence, and natural resource governance: experimental evidence from Mali and Niger","authors":"Alma Bezares Calderón,Simon Mercer,Ifeoluwa M Olawole,Matthew K Ribar","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag063","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The presence of non-state armed groups in the Sahel complicates effective natural resource governance, which is critical for conflict resolution, economic growth, and climate resilience. In response, African governments and donor organizations have alternatively implemented both community-led and state-led interventions to strengthen natural resource governance institutions. It is unclear, however, what governance strategies will be successful in the face of these challenges. We use a vignette survey experiment administered to 3,607 rural household heads in Mali and Niger to show that (1) respondents consistently believe that a community-led natural resource governance system would be more effective, more equitable, and more resilient to climate change than either the status quo or a state-led system; (2) that members of local ethnic outgroups have greater confidence in community-led and state-led regimes relative to the status quo; and (3) exposure to violence reduces confidence in all proposed systems. This article advances our understanding of natural resource governance under institutional pluralism, explores the endogenous relationship between state capacity and armed conflict, and identifies potential limits on the extent to which strengthening local institutions can substitute for low state capacity.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149210675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does political fragmentation within dominant ethnic groups shape whether challenger organizations use electoral politics, nonviolence, or violence? Evidence from Sri Lanka 主要族群内部的政治分裂如何影响挑战者组织使用选举政治、非暴力还是暴力？来自斯里兰卡的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-09 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag067

Agatha Skierkowski Hultquist

{"title":"How does political fragmentation within dominant ethnic groups shape whether challenger organizations use electoral politics, nonviolence, or violence? Evidence from Sri Lanka","authors":"Agatha Skierkowski Hultquist","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag067","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does political fragmentation within dominant ethnic groups—i.e., politically relevant ethnic groups that control the executive branch of government—impact whether challenger organizations representing politically disadvantaged ethnic groups use violence, nonviolence, or electoral politics to achieve their political goals? We know that fragmentation within politically disadvantaged groups who advocate for self-determination affects the violent and nonviolent tactics that challenger organizations use. However, ethnic mobilization is not unique to politically disadvantaged groups, and politically dominant groups may be just as fragmented as the disadvantaged groups over whom they govern. I argue that fragmentation within politically dominant ethnic groups conditions the political opportunity structures in which challenger organizations operate. As political fragmentation in the dominant group increases, creating elite divisions and leverage points, challenger organizations are more likely to use nonviolence or electoral politics, while violence becomes a tactic of last resort when these divisions are lacking. Using an original measure of political fragmentation based on legislative roll call votes in Sri Lanka, I find support for the theory. These results demonstrate that unlike fragmentation within politically disadvantaged groups, which has been found to increase the use of violence against the state, fragmentation within politically dominant ethnic groups incentivizes challenger organizations to realize their goals through nonviolent channels, lending additional insights to the literature on tactical choice in conflicts and elite divisions in social movements and nonviolent resistance.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149151665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crises and regime instability: autocratization and democratization pathways across political regimes 危机与政权不稳定：政治体制中的独裁与民主化路径

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag062

Guido Panzano,Luca Tomini

{"title":"Crises and regime instability: autocratization and democratization pathways across political regimes","authors":"Guido Panzano,Luca Tomini","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag062","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To what extent are political regimes vulnerable to crises? Established research has explored in depth how crises can compromise regime stability, from Linz's foundational studies to contemporary investigations. Yet, such contributions remain scattered across unconnected concepts, methods, and applications, thus hindering cumulative knowledge. This article crafts a coherent examination of different crises and their impacts on regime instability, with a twofold contribution: first, it synthesizes the findings of such a large literature; second, it advances them through a single framework and an extensive empirical test of their external validity. Applying various indicators of economic, violent, and disaster-related crises, our global study implements a broad range of time-series cross-sectional regression models on direct and moderated effects on different types of regime instability (alteration in democracy levels, democratic upturns/downturns, democratization/autocratization episodes, and democratic breakdown/transition) in democracies and autocracies. The findings not only confirm but also unveil multiple crises-related pathways of regime change, especially for economic and violent crises, and a generally greater fragility of autocracies compared to democracies, both in the face of the impact of a single crisis and in the occurrence of simultaneous crises. This reassessment bridges previous examinations, offers important policy suggestions, and opens up ways for further inquiries.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"295 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149092605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From aggrieved to activist: group grievances, personal resources, and participation repertoires 从受委屈到积极分子：群体不满、个人资源和参与技能

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag082

Solveig Hillesund,Karin Dyrstad

{"title":"From aggrieved to activist: group grievances, personal resources, and participation repertoires","authors":"Solveig Hillesund,Karin Dyrstad","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag082","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract From voting to violence, politicized ethnicities shape many aspects of politics. Yet, within-group variation in how individuals respond to ethnic inequalities remains understudied. This article examines how perceived group grievance and personal resources combine to shape political participation repertoires. We argue that perceived group grievance can facilitate both conventional and contentious participation, but that individuals' repertoires are conditioned by socioeconomic status: Only the poorest and least educated should be willing to join contentious activities when protests entail risk of repression. Using 2016 survey data from Nepal collected during a period of high contention, we show that while middle class group members respond to perceived group grievance primarily with conventional political activities, such as party work and contacting politicians, individuals from the lowest socioeconomic strata are more likely to respond by supplementing or replacing conventional participation with protests and strikes. Additional analyses suggest that variation in civic skills, measured as literacy, basic political knowledge, and proficiency in the official language, provides the most likely explanation for these differences. The combination of within- and between-group inequalities is commonly seen to increase the risk of recruitment to armed groups. Our findings suggest that they can also serve as a catalyst for nonviolent contentious action. Moreover, the socioeconomic composition of identity groups could help condition the mode of their political struggle.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149092607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Securing support, avoiding harm? Civilian support, community organization, and rebel landmine use in Colombia 获得支持，避免伤害？哥伦比亚的平民支持、社区组织和叛军使用地雷

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag072

Henrique Garbino

{"title":"Securing support, avoiding harm? Civilian support, community organization, and rebel landmine use in Colombia","authors":"Henrique Garbino","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag072","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How do armed groups manage the trade-off between securing and accessing support from civilian populations and minimizing the risk of exposing them to violence? While rebels often depend on local communities, their proximity exposes civilians to significant risks. This article addresses this dilemma by examining the use of landmines by Colombian guerrilla groups. Although landmines are expected to offer an effective and low-cost means to offset asymmetries in civil wars, their indiscriminate nature threatens the very communities on which rebels rely. I argue that while rebels are more likely to lay minefields where they enjoy greater local support, they should also attempt to reduce risks to civilians in these areas, especially when faced with stronger resistance from local communities. Using cross-sectional, subnational data from Colombia's national mine action program, I show that guerrilla groups indeed laid more landmines in more supportive municipalities. However, while such support does not appear to correlate with restraint in landmine use, higher levels of community organization are associated with minefields being laid further from populated areas and with fewer civilian mine accidents. The findings contribute to research on civilian victimization, rebel governance, and restraint in wartime violence, with implications for mine clearance and civilian protection.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149092606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0