Journal of Peace Research最新文献

Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments 非暴力替代方案减少了对反叛组织的外部支持：来自两个跨国调查实验的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251334919

Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney

{"title":"Nonviolent alternatives reduce external support for rebel groups: Evidence from two cross-national survey experiments","authors":"Matthew Cebul, Jonathan Pinckney","doi":"10.1177/00223433251334919","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251334919","url":null,"abstract":"How do nonviolent alternatives affect international support for violent rebel groups? Armed rebellions are often sustained by outside sympathy and support, which conditions global coordination to end intrastate conflict. Studies on reducing such support largely neglect how the emergence of alternative, nonviolent resistance groups impacts international support for violent resistance. Nonviolent alternatives could plausibly increase support for armed rebellion by legitimizing the cause of resistance or reduce support by delegitimizing the means of violent rebellion relative to nonviolent alternatives. To examine this puzzle, we conducted two online survey experiments across more than 30 countries using a pre-post design to capture changes in attitudes toward a hypothetical violent rebel group before and after the emergence of an alternative resistance group. We randomly vary both the presence and features of the alternative group, including explicitly nonviolent rhetoric, government repression and concessions, and short descriptors meant to signal the alternative group’s capacity to fill psychological needs for agency, justice, and belonging. We find that alternative resistance options consistently reduce support for armed rebellion, including among those originally most supportive of it, and that respondents strongly prefer explicitly nonviolent alternatives, yet neither the material efficacy nor the emotional resonance of those alternatives have a substantial additional effect.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144328811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tactics of survival: Strategies of Resistance Data Project update 生存战术：抵抗策略数据项目更新

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241267866

Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, Ted Ellsworth, Harriet Goers, Michael Cowan, Oja Pathak, Ellin Chung

引用次数: 0

The grass is always greener on the other side: Transnational ethnic inequality and ethno-nationalist conflict 这山望着那山高：跨国种族不平等和民族主义冲突

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251317102

Chong Chen, Kyle Beardsley, Nils B Weidmann

{"title":"The grass is always greener on the other side: Transnational ethnic inequality and ethno-nationalist conflict","authors":"Chong Chen, Kyle Beardsley, Nils B Weidmann","doi":"10.1177/00223433251317102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251317102","url":null,"abstract":"Existing research has shown that horizontal inequalities arising from comparisons between ethnic groups can promote ethno-nationalist conflict. However, these studies have largely focused on comparison between groups within the same country. In this article, we extend this perspective and study comparisons with kin groups abroad and how they affect the risk of ethnic civil war. In particular, we address the fact that many groups have several kin groups abroad, all of which could serve as reference points for comparison. Drawing on insights from social psychology, we argue that the comparisons made with different groups involve distinct motivations, which can yield varying degrees of stimulus related to the outbreak of ethno-nationalist conflict. Our results suggest that comparisons with kin groups abroad – especially the best (most well-off) groups, as well as the nearest or median groups – are salient in increasing the propensity for conflict incidence. Moreover, groups that are relatively well-off and thus prone to downward comparisons, especially when the group is wealthier than all of its transnational kin groups, are much less likely to fight. A novel finding emerges: relative poverty in comparison with transnational kin does not appear to exacerbate the potential for conflict, but relative wealth does appear to attenuate it.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims 1989-2024年的有组织暴力，以及确定平民受害者的挑战

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251345636

Shawn Davies, Therése Pettersson, Margareta Sollenberg, Magnus Öberg

{"title":"Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims","authors":"Shawn Davies, Therése Pettersson, Margareta Sollenberg, Magnus Öberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433251345636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251345636","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines global trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 59 to 61, marking the second consecutive year in which the UCDP recorded a historically high number of conflicts. The number of wars increased from nine to 11, the highest count since 2016. The UCDP recorded marginal declines in both state-based fatalities and organized violence as a whole. In contrast, one-sided violence saw a sharp increase, driven primarily by escalating attacks by Islamic State in Africa and widespread killings by non-state actors in Haiti. Non-state conflict declined, both in the number of active conflicts and in total fatalities. In total, the UCDP recorded almost 160,000 deaths in organized violence in 2024. The article also addresses challenges in the classification of casualties, highlighting how limitations in data quality and information access contribute to uncertainty around the civilian-to-combatant fatality ratio. These challenges are particularly acute in cases of organized crime violence, in which the distinction between civilians and combatants is often blurred, and in which indiscriminate types of warfare, such as artillery and aerial bombardment, are used in urban settings.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"137 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144269398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Labored legacies: The post-conflict implications of women’s wartime participation 劳动遗产：战后妇女参与战争的影响

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251332523

Elizabeth L Brannon

{"title":"Labored legacies: The post-conflict implications of women’s wartime participation","authors":"Elizabeth L Brannon","doi":"10.1177/00223433251332523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251332523","url":null,"abstract":"Does the legacy of women’s participation in non-state armed groups impact women’s post-war political representation? Existing research suggests that women’s inclusion in rebel groups is typically a short-term strategy, creating logistical and tactical advantages without commitment to long-term gendered change. Relatedly, after wars, patriarchal backlash can close the space for women, limiting their newfound political access. This paper argues that despite the incentives to leave women behind, the political parties evolving out of rebel groups (‘rebel parties’) continue practices of women’s inclusion to capture the continued benefits of their representation after war. I argue that the legacies of women’s roles will have symbolic effects on the rebel party’s recruitment of women, women’s candidate emergence, and voter support for women. I present novel data on women’s representation in rebel parties from 1970 to 2020 and find that rebel parties run and elect more women post-conflict when rebels had women wartime participants. I show that these results are consistent across the types of roles that women held during conflict and over time. These findings underscore the wartime legacies of rebel parties and show how women’s wartime contributions affect their post-war political standing.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144236919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model 考虑冲突动态中的可变性：基于模式的预测模型

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251330790

Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, Thomas Chadefaux

{"title":"Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model","authors":"Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, Thomas Chadefaux","doi":"10.1177/00223433251330790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251330790","url":null,"abstract":"Existing models for predicting conflict fatalities frequently produce conservative forecasts that gravitate towards the mean. While these approaches have a low average prediction error, they offer limited insights into temporal variations in conflict-related fatalities. Yet, accounting for variability is particularly relevant for policymakers, providing an indication on when to intervene. In this article, we introduce a novel risk-taking methodology, the ‘Shape finder’, designed to capture variability in fatality data, or rather the sudden surges and declines in the number of deaths over time. The method involves isolating historically analogous sequences of fatalities to create a reference repository. Comparing the shape of the input sequence to the historical references, the most similar historical cases are selected. Predictions are then generated using the average future outcomes of the selected matches. The Shape finder is derived from the theoretical understanding that strategic and adaptive interactions between the government and a non-state armed group produce recurring temporal patterns in fatality data, which are indicative of broader developments. In this article, we demonstrate that our approach maintains high accuracy while significantly enhancing the ability to predict shifts, surges, and declines in conflict fatalities over time. We show that combining the Shape finder with existing approaches, the Violence Early-Warning System ensemble, achieves a lower mean squared error and better accounts for variability in fatality data. The Shape finder methodology performs particularly well for high intensity cases, or rather country-months with substantial armed violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Supporting reparations after armed conflict: How discursive ‘memory battles’ affect political solidarity with Guatemalan Indigenous survivors 支持武装冲突后的赔偿：话语“记忆之战”如何影响危地马拉土著幸存者的政治团结

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241312069

Elke Evrard, Gretel Mejía Bonifazi

{"title":"Supporting reparations after armed conflict: How discursive ‘memory battles’ affect political solidarity with Guatemalan Indigenous survivors","authors":"Elke Evrard, Gretel Mejía Bonifazi","doi":"10.1177/00223433241312069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241312069","url":null,"abstract":"Literature on survivor mobilization in transitional justice contexts has largely overlooked the relevance and dynamics of solidarity-based support by non-victimized groups. This article studies the relation between contentious processes of discursive ‘memory-making’ and public support for reparations in post-conflict Guatemala. Using a nationwide survey-embedded experiment with 300 respondents, we measure how contrasting representations of the temporality of harm and prospects for peace – drawn from elite versus survivor narratives – influence political solidarity with Indigenous survivors and support for their reparation demands. Findings show that while perceptions of survivors’ continued suffering and reparations’ peace-building potential are key predictors of solidarity and support, the contrasting narrative primes did not significantly influence these perceptions or resulting attitudes. The survey’s open-ended responses suggest that, in engaging with prevalent public discourses, respondents have developed relatively stable yet highly diverse interpretations of the necessity and ability of reparations to address social, psychological, and economic harms, and to promote beneficial outcomes for society at large. Mapping these responses onto the quantitative scores indicates that solidary support is more likely to emerge when non-victimized groups situate conflict-related harms within an ongoing history of structural violence and position reparations as building blocks for recognition, development and social integration – signalling the importance of discursive and expressive dynamics in public engagement with reparation processes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The end of rebel rule: Biased peacekeeping interventions and social order 叛军统治的结束：有偏见的维和干预与社会秩序

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251322668

Jason Hartwig

引用次数: 0

War, social preferences, and anti-outgroup behavior: Experimental evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 战争、社会偏好和反外群体行为：来自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的实验证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251318931

Sam Whitt, Douglas Page

{"title":"War, social preferences, and anti-outgroup behavior: Experimental evidence from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Sam Whitt, Douglas Page","doi":"10.1177/00223433251318931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251318931","url":null,"abstract":"How does war affect social preferences toward people with conflict-related outgroup identities? While the literature often reports prosocial treatment of ingroups, such benevolence is rarely seen toward potential outgroups. We consider the case of Ukraine, where many people with Russian identity markers reside. We ask whether people in Ukraine who identify as Russian by ethnicity or language have become stigmatized following Russia’s invasion. To measure social preferences, we introduce a variant of the Equality Equivalency Test (EET) as a third-party dictator game, where respondents decide between equal or unequal allocations of money involving two recipients. We run the EET in a January 2023 nationwide survey in Ukraine where dictator recipients are randomized by Ukrainian and Russian ethnicity, language, and/or Ukrainian civic identity. We also randomize priming on conflict-related victimization experiences. Despite widespread devastation across Ukraine by Russian forces, the majority of respondents, who identify as ethnic Ukrainians, treat Russian identifiers benevolently (fairly) relative to Ukrainians, and only a minority of respondents behaved malevolently (spitefully) toward them. Priming on victimization has minimal negative effects on benevolence. Our findings reinforce research on rising civic nationalism in Ukraine, transcending ethnolinguistic understandings of identity and belonging. Our results have implications for war as an instrument of nation-building and social cohesion, bolstering Ukraine’s ability to mitigate internal divisions amid Russia’s invasion.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Women’s roles and reproductive violence within armed rebellions 武装叛乱中的妇女角色和生殖暴力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251324342

Lindsey A Goldberg

{"title":"Women’s roles and reproductive violence within armed rebellions","authors":"Lindsey A Goldberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433251324342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251324342","url":null,"abstract":"Why do armed rebel movements perpetrate intragroup reproductive violence? While extant research predominantly focuses on wartime sexual violence against civilians, the targeting of rebel women with reproductive violence remains underexplored. My research contributes new insights on how women’s idealized roles within armed rebellions shape the likelihood of these groups engaging in various forms of intragroup reproductive violence. I theorize that forced abortions are more likely to occur within rebellions that idealize women’s contributions through masculine duties like frontline combat because in these cases, pregnancy is perceived as antithetical to women’s expected contributions to the rebel movement. Conversely, forced pregnancies are more likely to occur within rebel movements that idealize women’s feminine support roles away from the frontlines because in these cases, pregnancy and motherhood are often part of rebel women’s expected contributions. I provide illustrative examples of armed rebellions characterized by these dynamics, and I introduce novel data on intragroup reproductive violence across a global sample of rebel organizations. Using this new dataset, I statistically evaluate my hypotheses and find empirical support for my claims. This research focuses on gender-based violence that occurs within rebel organizations, providing new data and new insights regarding the intragroup gender dynamics that promote reproductive violence against rebel women.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0