Journal of Peace Research最新文献

{"title":"The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty","authors":"Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D’Orazio, Hannah Frank, Cornelius Fritz, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra Malaga, Marius Mehrl, Nils W Metternich, Daniel Mittermaier, David Muchlinski, Hannes Mueller, Christian Oswald, Paola Pisano, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Lotta Rüter, Thomas Schincariol, Benjamin Seimon, Elena Siletti, Marco Tagliapietra, Chandler Thornhill, Johan Vegelius, Julian Walterskirchen","doi":"10.1177/00223433241300862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241300862","url":null,"abstract":"Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war intensity as probability distributions prove closer to what policymakers need than point estimates, as they encompass useful representations of both the most likely outcome and the lower-probability risk that conflicts escalate catastrophically. Point-estimate predictions, by contrast, fail to represent the inherent uncertainty in the distribution of conflict fatalities. Yet, current early warning systems are preponderantly focused on providing point estimates, while efforts to forecast conflict fatalities as a probability distribution remain sparse. Building on the predecessor VIEWS competition, we organize a prediction challenge to encourage endeavours in this direction. We invite researchers across multiple disciplinary fields, from conflict studies to computer science, to forecast the number of fatalities in state-based armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP ‘best’ estimates aggregated to two units of analysis (country-months and PRIO-GRID-months), with estimates of uncertainty. This article introduces the goal and motivation behind the prediction challenge, presents a set of evaluation metrics to assess the performance of the forecasting models, describes the benchmark models which the contributions are evaluated against, and summarizes the salient features of the submitted contributions.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CORRIGENDUM to Mitigating election violence locally: UN peacekeepers’ election-education campaigns in Côte d’Ivoire by Hannah Smidt","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00223433251324149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251324149","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143915955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliable knowledge claims on the recruitment and use of children: An empirical perspective","authors":"Timothy Lynam, Dustin Johnson, Catherine Baillie Abidi","doi":"10.1177/00223433251318862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251318862","url":null,"abstract":"The risks of child recruitment by non-state armed groups are geographically, temporally and contextually situated. There are multilayered, multivariate arrays of risk factors associated with non-state armed groups, with conflicts, and with contexts. Using Bayesian network modelling with a global dataset of non-state armed group child recruitment practices between 2010 and 2022, we demonstrate the theoretical and practical importance of adopting a situational perspective to understand child recruitment risks. Methodologically, we demonstrate a robust model-checking process that checks the adequacy of our data, the magnitude and direction of estimated effects, and shows greater than 80% accuracy in predicting child recruitment by non-state armed groups. We review and contrast our approach with standard general linear modelling used in quantitative child recruitment research over the past two decades. Through adopting a situated orientation, and applying analytical tools appropriate to that orientation, we challenge and extend existing theory and propose new theoretical insights on child recruitment risks. We show how important violence is as a predictor of child recruitment risks and, using a new measure of fighting force efficacy, show that, contrary to published theory, less effective non-state armed groups were more likely to recruit children than more effective ones. But even these most notable results we show to vary markedly across situations.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multidimensional effects of conflict-induced violence on wartime migration decisions: evidence from Ukraine","authors":"Yuliya Kosyakova, Irena Kogan, Frank van Tubergen","doi":"10.1177/00223433251317838","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251317838","url":null,"abstract":"This study makes three key contributions to the literature on the effect of conflict-induced violence on wartime migration. First, while conflict-induced violence is often treated as a monolithic factor, we consider conflict-induced violence as multidimensional, varying in intensity, type and proximity. Second, by including both movers and stayers, we address the mobility bias prevalent in the literature and examine both mobility and immobility in the context of conflict. Third, we contribute to debates on destination choices by empirically testing the likelihood of internal displacement versus seeking refuge abroad. Using dynamic models and unique comparative data from the OneUA project, which surveyed 24,000 Ukrainian women in Ukraine and eight other European countries, we examine the migration behaviors of those who stayed in their pre-war residence, relocated internally (internally displaced persons), or fled abroad during the first 6 months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Our findings reveal a curvilinear relationship between conflict-induced violence and migration propensity: violence initially increases migration but diminishes beyond a threshold. We also find that forewarnings and indirect threats have a stronger influence on migration than direct threats. Violence catalyzes migration among vulnerable groups, narrowing demographic disparities in migration propensity. However, resourceful individuals retain an advantage in early migration, perpetuating inequalities in escape opportunities. Additionally, we observe distinct patterns of internal versus international migration in response to stronger conflict-induced violence, providing theoretical and empirical insights into the dynamics of wartime migration.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding the Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Dataset: Partial peace agreements in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement negotiation and implementation process, 1989–2021","authors":"Madhav Joshi, Matthew Hauenstein, Jason Quinn","doi":"10.1177/00223433251322596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251322596","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents an expansion of the Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Dataset, incorporating data on partial agreements and newly established Comprehensive Peace Agreements. The new Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Dataset now includes coding for 51 provisions across 42 Comprehensive Peace Agreements and 236 partial peace agreements (with 78% of these negotiated prior to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and 22% negotiated during the 10-year Comprehensive Peace Agreement implementation process). This expanded dataset offers nuanced insights into the negotiation and implementation processes of Comprehensive Peace Agreements, the types of provisions negotiated within partial agreements, those later incorporated into Comprehensive Peace Agreements, and those renegotiated throughout the Comprehensive Peace Agreement implementation period. The article details the methodology and criteria employed for integrating partial agreements into the Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Dataset, provides descriptive statistics on the provisions within these agreements, and examines the implementation trajectories of pre-Comprehensive Peace Agreement partial agreements and Comprehensive Peace Agreements for up to 10 years. Additionally, it examines the interrelatedness among partial agreements, Comprehensive Peace Agreements, and Comprehensive Peace Agreement implementation processes. One of the key applications of the partial peace agreement data presented is the empirical testing of the gradualism proposition in trust-building. The findings indicate that Comprehensive Peace Agreements exhibit a higher overall implementation rate when a greater number of partial agreements are negotiated beforehand. However, this is conditional and influenced by the duration of the negotiation process. The article concludes with a discussion of the challenges and limitations encountered, along with suggestions for future research on civil war peace agreements.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The challenges of surveying in war zones: Lessons from Ukraine","authors":"Kit Rickard, Gerard Toal, Kristin M Bakke, John O’Loughlin","doi":"10.1177/00223433251321763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251321763","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict scholars commonly employ public opinion surveys to understand the causes and consequences of violence. However, surveying in wartime presents a distinctive set of challenges. We examine two challenges facing polling in countries at war: under-coverage of national samples and response bias. Although these issues are acknowledged in the literature on surveying methods, they become significantly more pronounced in war zones due to the geographic clustering of violence and the heightened sensitivity surrounding certain opinions. We illustrate these challenges in the context of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, drawing on original panel survey data tracing the attitudes of the same people in Ukraine prior to and after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. We show that unit and item non-response bias in surveys conducted during the war are related to respondents’ political orientation, particularly their support for NATO membership measured in 2019. We conclude with lessons for those employing survey methods in wartime, and point to steps forward, in Ukraine and beyond.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"267 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"International economic sanctions and conflict prevention in self-determination disputes","authors":"David E Cunningham, Madeline Fleishman, Peter B White","doi":"10.1177/00223433251317460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251317460","url":null,"abstract":"Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community – economic sanctions. We examine the impact of sanctions targeted against states with self-determination (SD) disputes. We argue that the threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation in these disputes, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of escalation to civil war will decrease. We conduct a series of statistical tests of the effect of threatened and imposed sanctions against the state on armed conflict onset in SD disputes, accommodation of SD groups, and repression. We find that threatened sanctions decrease the likelihood of armed conflict onset, make government accommodation of SD groups more likely, and lead to overall decreases in repression by the state. Imposed sanctions, meanwhile, increase the risk of civil war in the next year, but this effect dissipates over time. These results suggest that sanction threats can be a useful tool of conflict prevention, but failed threats can increase the risk of escalations of violence in SD disputes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143790121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Protection from afar? Diaspora support for rebel groups and civilian victimization","authors":"Sara Daub","doi":"10.1177/00223433251317116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251317116","url":null,"abstract":"How does diaspora sponsorship of rebel organizations impact civilian victimization? This article argues that diasporas have an affinity for their kin and therefore, an interest in civilian protection. By applying a principal–agent framework to understand diaspora sponsorship to rebel organizations, it highlights how a diaspora, acting as a principal, can reduce violence against civilians perpetrated by a rebel organization, the agent. While rebel organizations may utilize civilian victimization, this article hypothesizes that they restrain violence because of diaspora sponsorship. The article draws on novel data on diaspora support, coupled with data on civilian victimization in the context of armed conflicts in Africa and Asia from 1989 to 2014. The findings demonstrate a statistically significant negative effect of diaspora sponsorship on rebel groups’ violence against civilians. Homeland-related factors reveal heterogeneous effects of diaspora sponsorship on one-sided violence. The article generates an in-depth understanding of a diaspora’s agency as a non-state sponsor for rebel organizations and contributes to the scholarship on civilian victimization during armed conflicts and external sponsorship. It offers avenues for understanding the role of diaspora groups as sponsors.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143782668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Studying conflict-related sexual violence: What does it mean for researchers’ well-being?","authors":"Michele Leiby, Inger Skjelsbæk, Kim Thuy Seelinger","doi":"10.1177/00223433241309167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241309167","url":null,"abstract":"This article focuses on researcher distress and well-being. It presents a survey carried out with scholars engaged in conflict-related sexual violence research from various disciplines. Respondents were asked about how they reacted to the research they engaged in and how their respective academic institutions supported them. Academia’s understanding of and preparedness for research-related distress is limited. While there is a focus on researcher safety in the field, typically from the perspective of institutional insurance and liability, there is less focus on researcher well-being. Our findings suggest that there is a need, and indeed willingness, to address distress and well-being within the conflict-related sexual violence research community. The ability to do so, however, depends in large part on the institutional setting of the individual researcher. We find there are institutional differences between the fields of political science, law, history, and international relations on the one hand where scholars report more difficulties, than within the fields of anthropology, social work, psychology, public health, and gender studies, which appear more trauma aware. The findings show that there are great variations between different scholarly disciplines and institutions. We find a clear need to address these topics not only in academic reflections in scholarly articles, but also on institutional levels within academic communities.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143782669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Journal of Peace Research is excited to announce that the Nils Petter Gleditsch Article of the Year Award for 2024 goes to Melanie Sauter!","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00223433251322306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251322306","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"226 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143766533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}