Journal of Peace Research最新文献

Hit where it hurts: City vulnerability during wartime 击中要害：战时城市的脆弱性

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251350845

Bryce W Reeder, Gary Uzonyi

{"title":"Hit where it hurts: City vulnerability during wartime","authors":"Bryce W Reeder, Gary Uzonyi","doi":"10.1177/00223433251350845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251350845","url":null,"abstract":"Success in center-seeking rebellions requires rebels to oust the incumbent government. Yet not all center-seeking rebels attack the capital and those that do often take a circuitous route. We build from existing literature to integrate theories of rebel strength with a broader understanding of both the strategic and symbolic value of territory. Building a new dataset of location value and employing novel empirical techniques, we demonstrate that as a location’s value increases relative to the capital city for a group, the rebels become less likely to move against the capital as they can build offensive strength, fortify their defensive position, and appease local constituents in their current geographic domain. Relative strength conditions these strategies, as stronger groups tend to take a more straight-line approach to the capital, middling groups advance in zigzag patterns, and the weakest groups move in spiral formations to maximize their defensive and symbolic positions. We find that these patterns hold across a wide range of population thresholds. Several case studies help illustrate the mechanisms central to these dynamics. By combining considerations of both rebel strength and territorial value, this article brings several strands of literature on civil war geography into the conversation and broadens our understanding of the conflict process.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145289131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bad apples just for friends: A large language model approach to research on the strategic framing in government’s human rights advocacy narratives 只给朋友吃的坏苹果：研究政府人权倡导叙事中的战略框架的大型语言模型方法

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251360205

Jie Lian

{"title":"Bad apples just for friends: A large language model approach to research on the strategic framing in government’s human rights advocacy narratives","authors":"Jie Lian","doi":"10.1177/00223433251360205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251360205","url":null,"abstract":"Existing scholarship shows that transnational human rights advocacy depends on successful framing and audience mobilization. While most of this literature has focused on human rights framing by NGOs and advocates, governments can also frame human rights interests to their advantage. Focusing on the topic of police violence in the United States government’s transnational human rights advocacy practices, this article argues that a government may frame advocacy narratives for its benefit. For the government, strategic framing could be used to mobilize pressure against its geopolitical rivals, ease condemnation against its friends, and actively define advocated issues in a way favorable to its regime. With a novel network approach for text representation based on pre-trained large language models (LLMs), this article proposes an effective method to measure strategic framing from text data. Using the US State Department’s human rights reports, the results show that police violence accusations in the US government’s human rights advocacy narratives are strategically framed with reporting in favor of countries closer to the US. This research contributes to human rights scholarship by highlighting how governments’ national interests considerations could be incorporated into transnational human rights advocacy activities through strategic framing. The proposed LLM-based text data representation method also shows promising potential for broader text analysis tasks like topic modeling.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145289511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hand in fist: Attachment to the nation and tolerance for white supremacist violence 手拉手：对国家的依恋和对白人至上主义暴力的容忍

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251360902

Victoria Gurevich, Christopher Gelpi

{"title":"Hand in fist: Attachment to the nation and tolerance for white supremacist violence","authors":"Victoria Gurevich, Christopher Gelpi","doi":"10.1177/00223433251360902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251360902","url":null,"abstract":"How does attachment to the nation influence one’s perception of white nationalist terrorism in the United States? Whereas terrorism has traditionally been understood as attacking the interests of the State, the recent increase in white supremacist violence in the United States is also deeply connected to the country’s history. An emerging body of literature has begun to examine the subjectivity of what is considered terrorism, often finding that respondents are less likely to identify white perpetrators as terrorists compared to non-white perpetrators for similar crimes. We engage a survey experiment to extend the ‘relational theory of terror perception’ to one’s attachment to the nation. We test how national attachment, an ostensibly positive disposition and distinct from patriotism and nationalism, shapes how racially motivated violence is perceived. We find that those with a stronger attachment to the nation are less concerned by hypothetical incidents of white supremacist violence than those with a weaker attachment to the nation. These biases that minimize concern for white supremacist violence are held across the political spectrum and are not simply a function of race, party affiliation, or political ideology. In fact, national attachment is a stronger predictor of attitudes toward white supremacy than respondent race; we find no support for our hypothesis that white respondents would be less concerned by violence committed by white perpetrators. Recognizing the link between positive attachment to the nation and tolerance for white nationalist violence is crucial for shaping America’s response to this threat to national security and civil peace.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145246397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Coercive engineered migrations and environmental stress 强制性工程迁移和环境压力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251360202

Tobias Böhmelt

{"title":"Coercive engineered migrations and environmental stress","authors":"Tobias Böhmelt","doi":"10.1177/00223433251360202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251360202","url":null,"abstract":"Countries can deliberately create, manipulate and exploit cross-border population movements to induce concessions from a target. Such ‘coercive engineered migrations’ are more likely to be successful when targeting domestically unstable states. I argue that environmental stress can add to this instability and ‘swamp’ a target’s ability to cope with cross-border population movements. Ultimately, the chances of migration-driven coercion to be successful should increase when target countries are both domestically unstable and suffer from environmental shocks. This claim is tested using quantitative data on the outcomes of coercive engineered migrations since the 1950s, which I combine with information on environmental extremes, as measured by the number of environmental disasters. Controlling for several other influences that may affect the outcome and employing sample-selection estimators that account for the non-random assignment of coercive engineered migration, the results support the argument as I show that the likelihood of successful migration-related coercion increases when domestically unstable target countries also face environmental disasters. This finding contributes to our understanding of migration as a foreign-policy instrument, it sheds new light on the role of environmental stress in international bargaining, and there are direct implications for conflict as a driver of cross-border population movements.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145246413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Private goods for peace: Economic provisions of peace agreements and the durability of peace 促进和平的私人物品：和平协定的经济条款和和平的持久性

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251345382

Elisa D’Amico, Santiago Sosa, Molly M Melinau

{"title":"Private goods for peace: Economic provisions of peace agreements and the durability of peace","authors":"Elisa D’Amico, Santiago Sosa, Molly M Melinau","doi":"10.1177/00223433251345382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251345382","url":null,"abstract":"We consider how agreement terms create a national framework for development to address the root causes of conflict (public goods) and prevent recidivism through the economic reintegration of ex-combatants (private goods), thus offering agreement terms that are acceptable to both parties and enabling long-term peace. We argue that peace agreements that include promises of public goods, such as national development, and private goods, such as training opportunities and direct fund transfers to ex-combatants, are more capable of preventing violence resurgence. We examine variation in peace agreements contents and how these relate to the durability of peace using newly coded data on private goods. Using a series of Cox proportional hazard models, along with a variety of robustness checks to account for matching, placebo effects, selection bias and implementation factors, we offer evidence that peace agreement content has important implications for post-civil war outcomes. Our results suggest that agreements with provisions for fiscal federalism and for the economic reintegration of ex-combatants are more durable than those that do not. Moreover, contrary to expectations, most economic development promises do not affect the durability of peace.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145116523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Democratic elections and anti-immigration attitudes 民主选举和反移民态度

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251352660

Miguel Carreras, Sofia Vera, Giancarlo Visconti

{"title":"Democratic elections and anti-immigration attitudes","authors":"Miguel Carreras, Sofia Vera, Giancarlo Visconti","doi":"10.1177/00223433251352660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251352660","url":null,"abstract":"Democratic elections are ritualized and institutionalized processes that allow for the peaceful resolution of political disagreements and conflicts. However, electoral processes also serve as focal points in which right-wing political parties can adopt a negative (or xenophobic) discourse against immigrants and other minority groups in order to obtain political benefits (i.e. more electoral support). Left-wing parties are often better off abandoning the immigration issue and focusing on other policy areas during the campaign. As a result, anti-immigration narratives become more prominent during periods of election salience. In this article, we take advantage of the timing of the cross-national post-election surveys included in the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) to explore the effects of election salience on individuals’ anti-immigration attitudes. We find that immigration attitudes become more polarized just after an election has taken place. On the one hand, right-wing respondents exhibit more negative attitudes toward immigrants when the election is salient, but those negative views decrease as we move away from the election. On the other hand, left-wing respondents express lower levels of xenophobia immediately after the election, but their immigration views become more negative as time since the election increases. Surprisingly, these effects are only detectable in contexts where the immigration issue is less salient.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145002862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does crime breed authoritarianism? Crime exposure, democratic decoupling and political attitudes in Brazil 犯罪会滋生威权主义吗？巴西的犯罪曝光、民主脱钩与政治态度

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347792

Juan Masullo, Krzysztof Krakowski, Davide Morisi

{"title":"Does crime breed authoritarianism? Crime exposure, democratic decoupling and political attitudes in Brazil","authors":"Juan Masullo, Krzysztof Krakowski, Davide Morisi","doi":"10.1177/00223433251347792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347792","url":null,"abstract":"How does crime influence democratic attitudes and behaviors? Existing research offers conflicting answers: some argue that crime fosters antidemocratic preferences, while others suggest it increases democratic engagement. To reconcile this paradox, we conceptualize democracy as a multidimensional system with distinct components that can be decoupled. We distinguish between different (anti)democratic preferences tied to core democratic principles and argue that contextual exposure to crime may heighten support for undemocratic enforcement measures without eroding commitment to procedural democracy. To test this, we conducted a large online survey ( N = 3108) in Brazil – a country profoundly affected by various forms of crime – using two embedded experimental protocols. Our findings show that crime exposure increases support for unlawful enforcement practices, such as police overreach and vigilante justice, while leaving attitudes toward military coups, executive aggrandizement and support for democracy as the best form of government largely unaffected. Understanding this nuanced relationship is especially important in contexts where crime is pervasive and politically instrumentalized. That exposure to crime leads citizens to tolerate breaches of the rule of law in the name of public safety is deeply concerning. Yet, our results offer cautious optimism: support for undemocratic enforcement does not necessarily undermine broader democratic commitments.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144928555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gender in elections: The consequences of killing women activists 选举中的性别：杀害女性活动家的后果

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347772

Andrés F Rivera, Juliana Tappe Ortiz, Carlo Koos

引用次数: 0

Why some districts march more: Protest mobilization in the wake of US representatives’ election denial 为什么一些地区的游行更多：在美国议员否认选举后的抗议动员

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251353650

Marie-Therese Meye

{"title":"Why some districts march more: Protest mobilization in the wake of US representatives’ election denial","authors":"Marie-Therese Meye","doi":"10.1177/00223433251353650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251353650","url":null,"abstract":"Election denial is a popular tool used by election losers to challenge democratic processes, often with harmful consequences for political stability. While some research suggests that actual fraud serves as a focal point for protest, other work emphasizes citizens’ perceptions of fraud and partisanship. This study contributes to the debate by pointing to a possible mechanism for why fraud perceptions and partisanship might matter more for protest mobilization. I argue that local elite endorsement of election denial plays a crucial role in amplifying and localizing national narratives of stolen elections, making them more resonant within specific communities. I test this argument using the case of the 2020 US presidential election, where the widespread election denial narrative by President Trump led to highly uneven patterns of pro-Trump protests across the country. Using novel data on protest activity based on anonymized cellphone records and the timing of public endorsements of fraud claims by members of Congress, I demonstrate that local elite support for election denial significantly increased protest mobilization within their districts, particularly in districts already primed for dissent. This study sheds light on the democratic risks posed by election denial, showing how elite-driven disinformation can intensify and localize mobilization, even in the absence of credible claims of electoral fraud.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144919322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Engineered non-contestation: Deterring electoral contestation using violence in local elections 策划无争议：在地方选举中使用暴力阻止选举争议

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251353645

Noyonika Das

{"title":"Engineered non-contestation: Deterring electoral contestation using violence in local elections","authors":"Noyonika Das","doi":"10.1177/00223433251353645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251353645","url":null,"abstract":"How and why do incumbents use local elections as tools for subverting democracy and establishing party dominance? Integrating literatures on political violence and decentralization, this article argues that incumbents use violence to engineer non-contestation among opposition actors in local elections. Drawing on the strength of local networks, incumbents prioritize their own strongholds for such violence, leading candidates to withdraw and resulting in uncontested seats. I explore this argument with data on local elections from West Bengal, a state in India that has held local elections since the 1970s but where competition is spatially uneven, resulting in a significant number of uncontested seats. The theoretical expectations are tested with disaggregated data on competitiveness and uncontested seats for 3,000 local electoral units. The article finds that increased violence against the opposition in an electoral unit leads to seats going uncontested in that unit. I complement these findings with 60 qualitative interviews from political elites and non-elites, which indicate that violence is an important means through which incumbents engineer non-contestation. These findings have important implications for research on political violence and subnational authoritarianism, particularly in understanding the emergence and persistence of subnational authoritarianism in decentralized countries.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144919320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0