Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第2页

How user language affects conflict fatality estimates in ChatGPT 用户语言如何影响 ChatGPT 中的冲突死亡率估计值

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241279381

Christoph Valentin Steinert, Daniel Kazenwadel

{"title":"How user language affects conflict fatality estimates in ChatGPT","authors":"Christoph Valentin Steinert, Daniel Kazenwadel","doi":"10.1177/00223433241279381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241279381","url":null,"abstract":"OpenAI’s ChatGPT language model has gained popularity as a powerful tool for problem-solving and information retrieval. However, concerns arise about the reproduction of biases present in the language-specific training data. In this study, we address this issue in the context of the Israeli–Palestinian and Turkish–Kurdish conflicts. Using GPT-3.5, we employed an automated query procedure to inquire about casualties in specific airstrikes, in both Hebrew and Arabic for the former conflict and Turkish and Kurdish for the latter. Our analysis reveals that GPT-3.5 provides 34 ± 11% lower fatality estimates when queried in the language of the attacker than in the language of the targeted group. Evasive answers denying the existence of such attacks further increase the discrepancy. A simplified analysis on the current GPT-4 model shows the same trends. To explain the origin of the bias, we conducted a systematic media content analysis of Arabic news sources. The media analysis suggests that the large-language model fails to link specific attacks to the corresponding fatality numbers reported in the Arabic news. Due to its reliance on co-occurring words, the large-language model may provide death tolls from different attacks with greater news impact or cumulative death counts that are prevalent in the training data. Given that large-language models may shape information dissemination in the future, the language bias identified in our study has the potential to amplify existing biases along linguistic dyads and contribute to information bubbles.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142580032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Identity Claims Dataset, 1946-2021 战争问题相关性（ICOW）身份索赔数据集，1946-2021 年

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241268838

Paul R Hensel, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Andrew P Owsiak, Krista E Wiegand

引用次数: 0

Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset 介绍拉丁美洲跨国监测（LATS）数据集

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241268837

Matias Spektor, Marcos Ross Fernandes, Lucas de Oliveira Paes, João Victor Dalla Pola, Vitor Loureiro Sion

{"title":"Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset","authors":"Matias Spektor, Marcos Ross Fernandes, Lucas de Oliveira Paes, João Victor Dalla Pola, Vitor Loureiro Sion","doi":"10.1177/00223433241268837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241268837","url":null,"abstract":"Transnational surveillance is a powerful tool in the arsenal of autocrats the world over. Despite its pervasive use in extraterritorial coercion, the systematic study of surveillance of regime opponents beyond national borders remains underdeveloped in political science, primarily due to limited data availability. To help fill this gap, we constructed the Latin American Transnational Surveillance dataset, a micro-level dataset based on declassified foreign surveillance reports produced between 1966 and 1986 by autocratic Brazil. Latin American Transnational Surveillance records the identity, locations, social ties and political activism of 17,000 individual targets of transnational surveillance, the vast majority of whom were tracked in neighbouring countries across Latin America. Drawing on these abundant data, we empirically explore existing theoretical insights about the motivations, methods and consequences of transnational surveillance, a task that would be difficult to do using other sources. We also leverage social network analysis to showcase potential applications of Latin American Transnational Surveillance in the testing of collective-action theories of transnational political violence.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"141 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do apologies promote the reintegration of former combatants? Lessons from a video experiment in Colombia 道歉能促进前战斗人员重返社会吗？哥伦比亚视频实验的启示

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241261560

Gustav Agneman, Lisa Strömbom, Angelika Rettberg

{"title":"Do apologies promote the reintegration of former combatants? Lessons from a video experiment in Colombia","authors":"Gustav Agneman, Lisa Strömbom, Angelika Rettberg","doi":"10.1177/00223433241261560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241261560","url":null,"abstract":"Transitional justice practices frequently involve public apologies where former combatants confess their wrongdoings and ask for forgiveness, with the underlying assumption that such displays facilitate the reintegration of ex-combatants into society. However, little is known about the public response to ex-combatant apologies. In this article, we investigate the causal effect of an armed group apology on attitudes toward ex-combatant reintegration in Colombia. Our study builds on a novel experiment implemented in Meta, a conflict-ridden department of Colombia. The experiment entailed exposing a subset of participants to a video in which a former rebel group leader apologizes for violent acts committed by their armed group during the civil war. To examine the extent to which external actors influence the effectiveness of apologies, we incorporated third-party ‘encouragements to forgive’ (endorsements) in two additional treatment conditions. Our analysis demonstrates that, on average, participants do not exhibit higher reintegration attitudes when exposed to the apology, regardless of third-party endorsements. However, the absence of a treatment effect is not due to an indifference to the apology. In an exploratory heterogeneity analysis, we show that the apology induces negative effects on some indicators of reintegration attitudes among participants that did not support the peace agreement. This finding aligns with qualitative data gathered in a follow-up survey, which indicates that opponents of the peace agreement generally describe negative emotional responses to the FARC-EP apology. The results call for a reconsideration of unchallenged prescriptions of public apologies after conflict.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who uses Internet propaganda in civil wars and why? 谁在内战中使用互联网宣传，为什么？

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241235854

Barbara F Walter, Gregoire Phillips

{"title":"Who uses Internet propaganda in civil wars and why?","authors":"Barbara F Walter, Gregoire Phillips","doi":"10.1177/00223433241235854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241235854","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores who is likely to benefit from Internet propaganda in civil wars. It argues that the global reach of the Internet, its lack of regulation and its filtering tools are more likely to help transnational rebel groups with external support and radical aims than local groups with home-grown support and moderate aims. The paper then introduces a new dataset on rebel propaganda that includes every available piece of public, downloadable Internet communication produced by every major rebel group in the Iraqi civil war between January 2011 and December 2015. A preliminary analysis of group-level Internet communication during the war revealed a number of striking patterns. Internet propaganda was not equally used by all rebel groups in Iraq during this time period. Groups with potentially larger international backing and low levels of local support were much more likely to produce Internet propaganda than those with strong in-country support. Ideologically extreme groups were also more likely to generate a higher volume of Internet propaganda than other types of groups. Finally, rebel groups that were new to a war tended to rely more heavily on Internet propaganda than more well-established groups. The article concludes by discussing the potential implications this new media environment could have for civil wars moving forward.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic origins of border fortifications 边境防御工事的经济起源

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241265006

Afiq bin Oslan

引用次数: 0

Contentious politics in the borderlands: How nonviolence and migrant characteristics affect public attitudes 边境地区的争议政治：非暴力和移民特征如何影响公众态度

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241271872

Pearce Edwards, Daniel Arnon

{"title":"Contentious politics in the borderlands: How nonviolence and migrant characteristics affect public attitudes","authors":"Pearce Edwards, Daniel Arnon","doi":"10.1177/00223433241271872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241271872","url":null,"abstract":"New political issues and opportunities lead new actors into contentious politics. This article studies one such case: transnational migrants making claims and engaging in collective action when traversing state borders. As global migration flows and accompanying political backlash has grown since the mid-2010s, borders have increasingly become sites of contention between groups of migrants seeking entry and state agents attempting to refuse it. Media coverage and elite discourse also has focused on contentious border crossings, with implications for public attitudes toward migration. In this setting, public attitudes toward migrants should vary based on the migrants’ tactics and characteristics. We expect migrants engaging in nonviolent resistance to security forces will win more public support than those engaging in violence. Migrant characteristics – claims or motives for migration and ethnic identity – should also affect support. Survey experiments in the United States and Mexico containing fictionalized vignettes of a contentious event at the countries’ shared land border show strikingly similar results: migrant nonviolent resistance, compared to violent confrontations, reduces support for deportation and increases beliefs that migrants contribute to society. These effects are consistent across party lines and border proximity. Neither migrants’ claims nor migrants’ ethnic identity affect public support in the context of a contentious event.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142490931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When conflict becomes calamity: Understanding the role of armed conflict dynamics in natural disasters 当冲突变成灾难：了解武装冲突动态在自然灾害中的作用

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241265028

Niklas Hänze

{"title":"When conflict becomes calamity: Understanding the role of armed conflict dynamics in natural disasters","authors":"Niklas Hänze","doi":"10.1177/00223433241265028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241265028","url":null,"abstract":"Can armed conflict amplify the societal impacts and humanitarian consequences of natural hazards? Given that these hazards affect millions of people worldwide and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is paramount that we advance our understanding of what makes societies vulnerable to these hazards. Existing research has focused mainly on political violence as a consequence of natural hazard-related disasters but has neglected that conflict can also be an underlying factor that shapes the impact of these events. Consequently, we know little about whether and how exposure to violent armed conflict increases vulnerability to natural hazards. This study argues that the local dynamics of conflict can have a significant effect on vulnerability and empirically investigates how periods of high-intensity conflict can affect the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards in the context of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. By combining data on physical storm exposure with highly detailed subnational data on disaster fatalities and conflict events, the empirical analysis allows the identification of the independent effect of conflict on hazard impacts. Results show that local periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. These results have important implications for research investigating the impacts of disasters on peace and conflict, as they show that the consequences of natural disasters depend fundamentally on pre-existing conflict dynamics.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"235 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142488735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Access denied: Land alienation and pastoral conflicts 拒绝进入：土地转让与牧民冲突

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241252554

Cécile Richetta, Tim Wegenast

{"title":"Access denied: Land alienation and pastoral conflicts","authors":"Cécile Richetta, Tim Wegenast","doi":"10.1177/00223433241252554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241252554","url":null,"abstract":"Conflicts involving pastoralists have been on the rise in the past two decades in West, Central and East Africa. This article argues that land alienation is a major source of this type of violence. We employ a narrow identification strategy of relevant pastoral conflicts based on the Armed Conflict Location Event Dataset and create a unique indicator of land alienation comprised of three types of land use changes (conversion of land into conservation areas, crop farms, and industrial mining projects). Relying on a disaggregated quantitative comparative design of 50 km-by-50 km cells covering the Sahelian region from 2002 to 2019, we find that land alienation is an underlying cause of pastoral conflicts. Moreover, we show that the impact of land alienation on pastoralist violence spreads over long distances and is influenced by state presence and climatic conditions. Our analysis further reveals an overlap between pastoralist violence and armed conflict. Bridging a gap between macro- and micro-level studies, we contribute to shed more light on the determinants of pastoral conflicts, a type of violence that has received scant attention in the geospatial quantitative literature.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142487514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Furthering relational approaches to peace 推进和平关系方法

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433241267811

Morgan Brigg

引用次数: 0