Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第2页

Renting political violence: A political economy of rents, access and violence delegation 租用政治暴力：租用、访问和暴力授权的政治经济学

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251352676

Maureen Fubara

{"title":"Renting political violence: A political economy of rents, access and violence delegation","authors":"Maureen Fubara","doi":"10.1177/00223433251352676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251352676","url":null,"abstract":"What explains variation in incumbents’ choice of political violence perpetrators? Incumbents often sponsor violence in elections but do not typically engage in it themselves, instead delegating violence to security forces, armed groups, party wings, or regular citizens. Existing theory poorly explains such variation, which has privileged incumbents’ incentives to plausibly deny their involvement. This article develops a theory centred around variation in electoral violence perpetrators. Focusing on the subnational level, I argue that variation in rents helps explain why some incumbents recruit armed groups while others rely on ordinary citizens. Incumbents with access to large rents can afford to hire costly yet effective armed groups. In contrast, those with limited rents recruit cheaper but less capable alternatives such as ordinary citizens. I use over one hundred interviews conducted with politicians, journalists, voters, civil society members and citizens in four Nigerian states, Lagos, Rivers, Plateau and Nasarawa, to probe the plausibility of the argument. I triangulate interview findings with newspapers and observer reports. Findings show that in Lagos and Rivers, incumbents hire and maintain armed groups such as transport workers and cult groups due to high rents, while those in the low-rents state of Nasarawa hire citizens to perpetrate violence. The study contributes to the literature on decentralization, joint production of political violence, and the resource curse.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does political violence backfire in mature democracies? Evidence from the Capitol insurrection in the USA 在成熟的民主国家，政治暴力会适得其反吗？美国国会大厦暴动的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251352667

Krzysztof Krakowski, Juan S Morales

{"title":"Does political violence backfire in mature democracies? Evidence from the Capitol insurrection in the USA","authors":"Krzysztof Krakowski, Juan S Morales","doi":"10.1177/00223433251352667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251352667","url":null,"abstract":"Does political violence around election times decrease support for political elites associated with violent actions? We address this question in the understudied context of a mature democracy, where established electoral processes, effective accountability mechanisms, and a vibrant civil society are likely to reduce the appeal of violence. In this context, we hypothesize that political violence during election periods decreases support for political elites who propagate or condone such actions. To test this hypothesis, we examine the impact of the Capitol insurrection on support for the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States. Specifically, we analyze tweets posted by members of the US Congress around the time of the insurrection and use social media engagement as an indicator of public support for both parties. Employing a series of short-run difference-in-differences models, we find that the Capitol attack reduced engagement with messages posted by Republican politicians compared to Democrats. This effect is especially pronounced for Republican politicians closely aligned with Donald Trump, who is widely seen as having incited the attack. Importantly, our findings are not driven by the general negativity of Republican tweets or their explicit attacks on the Democratic Party, both of which could plausibly have heightened tensions. Instead, the evidence supports a ‘blame attribution’ mechanism, wherein the public punishes politicians responsible for instigating violence or condoning those who do. These results are robust to a series of falsification and permutation tests and cannot be explained by attrition following Twitter’s bans on radical users. We find evidence suggestive of the long-term consequences of these patterns for electoral outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Democracy dismissed: When leaders and citizens choose election violence 民主被抛弃：当领导人和公民选择选举暴力时

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251352662

Kathleen Klaus, Megan Turnbull

{"title":"Democracy dismissed: When leaders and citizens choose election violence","authors":"Kathleen Klaus, Megan Turnbull","doi":"10.1177/00223433251352662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251352662","url":null,"abstract":"In democratic settings, election violence is often jointly produced: it relies not only on elite incentives and capacities to deploy violence, but also on the willingness of ordinary actors to participate. Yet many studies of election violence overlook this elite–citizen interaction, effectively black-boxing the process through which elites mobilize people to fight. This article introduces and advances the concept of the joint production of election violence – a relatively common but undertheorized process through which political elites rely, not on their own militias or state security forces, but on the collaboration and participation of ordinary citizens. Such violence is especially puzzling in democracies, where citizens ostensibly have nonviolent avenues for political claim-making. To help explain how such violence becomes possible and how it unfolds, the article develops a framework that emphasizes two central components: (1) the circulation and resonance of threat-based and victimhood narratives that legitimize political violence, and (2) the social infrastructure – networks and organizational linkages – that facilitate the organization and coordination of violence. We draw on two cases of jointly produced election violence – Nigeria in 2003 and the United States in 2021 – to demonstrate how the framework can be applied across democracies at distinct stages of consolidation. Broadly, by developing the concept of jointly produced violence and offering a framework for its study, we aim to facilitate more systematic and comparative analyses of elite–citizen interactions in the context of electoral violence, helping to render visible a process that is often invisible in existing studies, while also bridging theories of election violence, democratic erosion, and right-wing extremism.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political violence in democracies: An Introduction 民主国家的政治暴力：导论

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251351251

Andrea Ruggeri, Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad

{"title":"Political violence in democracies: An Introduction","authors":"Andrea Ruggeri, Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad","doi":"10.1177/00223433251351251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251351251","url":null,"abstract":"It is well established that democracies experience less political violence than autocracies. Paradoxically, however, this widely accepted fact has led scholars to overlook the existence of various forms of political violence within democracies. This special issue introduction article sees political violence as collective violence aimed at achieving political goals, encompassing electoral, ethnic, criminal, and terrorist violence. It reviews what we know about variation in political violence across democracies, which turns out to be surprisingly little. The article argues that normative preconceptions, rationalist theoretical traditions, and measurement challenges may explain gaps in our knowledge, such as insufficient attention to the strategies used by violent actors, the partisan and demographic determinants of support for violence, and the purpose of violence. We proceed to introducing the 14 special issue articles, which study political violence with cutting-edge methodologies in the three most democratic regions in the world. The individual articles advance research in four key areas: (1) strategies of violent actors to avoid the accountability constraints of democracy; (2) the actors sponsoring violence; (3) the effects of political violence in democracy; and (4) the debate on popular support for political violence. Addressing theoretical and methodological shortcomings in prior work, this introduction and special issue highlight that democracy – despite its many merits – was never quite as peaceful as it may have seemed.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political violence in a polarized democracy: Years of Lead (YoL) data on Italy 1969–1988 两极分化民主中的政治暴力：1969-1988年意大利的铅年（YoL）数据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347762

Stefano Costalli, Daniele Guariso, Patricia Justino, Andrea Ruggeri

{"title":"Political violence in a polarized democracy: Years of Lead (YoL) data on Italy 1969–1988","authors":"Stefano Costalli, Daniele Guariso, Patricia Justino, Andrea Ruggeri","doi":"10.1177/00223433251347762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347762","url":null,"abstract":"What are the violent repertoires of politics in democracies? We contend that political violence in democratic settings can take many forms. We offer new guidelines and conceptual insights to enhance our understanding of political violence in democracies and promote a more comprehensive study of it. We provide new empirical evidence on patterns of political violence in a polarized democracy, relative trends, repertoires of violence, and the state’s responses. Our novel dataset on political violence covers the period of Italian history between 1969 and 1988, also known as the Years of Lead (Anni di Piombo). The dataset is based on a triangulation of news sources and an ‘actor-action-target’ analytical framework. We collected over 7,800 geolocated and temporally coded events, shedding light on an understudied but extremely violent period in Italian history. We contend that scholars should avoid conceptualizing political violence in democratic societies as a residual phenomenon, often narrowly framed as mere terrorism due to normative biases and analytical constraints. Instead, a broader perspective is necessary to fully understand its complexity and implications.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"193 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Violence against civil society actors in democracies: Territorialization of criminal economies and the assassination of social activists in Brazil 民主国家对民间社会行动者的暴力：巴西犯罪经济的属地化和对社会活动人士的暗杀

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347784

Juan Albarracín, Rodrigo Moura Karolczak, Jonas Wolff

{"title":"Violence against civil society actors in democracies: Territorialization of criminal economies and the assassination of social activists in Brazil","authors":"Juan Albarracín, Rodrigo Moura Karolczak, Jonas Wolff","doi":"10.1177/00223433251347784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347784","url":null,"abstract":"International NGOs and cross-national scholarship have drawn attention to a type of political violence particularly prevalent in democracies of the Global South: the assassination of social activists. We argue that the decentralized yet systematic nature of this targeted, lethal violence requires a theoretical framework and empirical approach addressing subnational dynamics. Specifically, we suggest that a significant share of these assassinations stems from the presence of highly territorialized illicit activities, particularly those based on dispossession. These criminal economies are sustained by networks of local elites and criminal actors – criminal-political networks – that develop forms of extra-legal governance and redefine land ownership and resource use, provoking resistance from local communities. When confronted by activist-led challenges, these criminal-political networks respond with lethal violence. We assess this theory through an empirical study of the Brazilian Amazon. Our statistical analysis indicates that the frequency of assassinations is significantly associated with industrial deforestation, a highly territorialized illicit practice involving dispossession. A qualitative case study of the municipality of Altamira further confirms that lethal violence against social activists can be attributed to criminal-political networks responding to local resistance against industrial deforestation, rather than to less territorialized drug trafficking. By bridging debates on criminal governance and socio-environmental conflict, the article contributes theoretically to the growing research on repressive violence against civil society actors in democratic regimes. Empirically, the study demonstrates how the micropolitics of this violence necessitate a focus on subnational variation, akin to micro-level approaches in civil war studies.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political violence and anti-system voting in interwar Italy 两次世界大战之间意大利的政治暴力和反体制投票

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347763

Edoardo Alberto Viganò, Bruno Della Sala, Stefan Stojkovic, Nils-Christian Bormann

{"title":"Political violence and anti-system voting in interwar Italy","authors":"Edoardo Alberto Viganò, Bruno Della Sala, Stefan Stojkovic, Nils-Christian Bormann","doi":"10.1177/00223433251347763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347763","url":null,"abstract":"What is the effect of political violence on electoral support for anti-system parties? We argue that the effect of violence is asymmetric and predominantly benefits nationalist, radical-right parties. Posing as defenders of the nation, nationalist parties benefit from violence by their political opponents and violence targeted against perceived threats to the nation. Two potential mechanisms underlie this asymmetric effect. First, nationalist violence becomes an acceptable means of defense in the eyes of status quo-oriented voters if they attribute blame to out-groups who used violence first. Second, nationalist violence itself increases the salience of a threat to the nation, and voters concerned with preserving the status quo see radical right parties as its most effective defender. To test this argument, we collect novel actor-based and geospatial data of political violence in interwar Italy. Using a difference-in-differences estimator, we model the effect of violence on vote shares of anti-system parties at the municipality level in the 1919 and 1921 elections. Our results indicate increasing electoral support for the nationalist Fascist party in municipalities that experienced violence committed by either the far right or left after the 1919 election. In contrast, the radical left Socialist party loses electoral support if violence occurs. These results are robust to different specifications, modeling choices, and measurement approaches. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings for violence in liberal democracies today.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Law enforcement at the margin of the law: Information provision and support for militarization in Mexico 法律边缘的执法：墨西哥军事化的信息提供和支持

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251349462

Abby Córdova, Lucía Tiscornia

{"title":"Law enforcement at the margin of the law: Information provision and support for militarization in Mexico","authors":"Abby Córdova, Lucía Tiscornia","doi":"10.1177/00223433251349462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251349462","url":null,"abstract":"Democracies have turned to the militarization of public security as a primary strategy to combat organized crime. Mounting evidence demonstrates that this policy results in the escalation of violence and human rights violations. However, militarization continues to enjoy broad public support. Widespread citizen support poses a challenge to democracy as it can result in the election and empowerment of political leaders favoring militarization, enabling further human rights abuses. We propose and test an information-based theory of change in policy support. We evaluate the effects of increasing the salience of information on state armed actors’ frequent collusion with criminal organizations vis-à-vis the human consequences of militarized operations, in addition to the systematic nature of state armed actors’ unlawful behavior as reported by human rights organizations. We test our hypotheses in Mexico using an original two-wave online panel survey with a conjoint experiment embedded in the second wave. The findings show that making collusion salient reduces support for militarization, independent of the state armed actor in charge. Exposure to information about lethal violence against innocents also results in overall lower policy support, but not information on the systematic nature of abuses. Further analyses suggest that this null finding results from high tolerance for unlawful state armed actors’ behavior, as long as it is perceived to serve the purpose of fighting criminals. However, unlawful behavior that reinforces organized crime, such as collusion, effectively reduces militarization support.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Party competition and the limits of electoral coercion: Evidence from Colombia 政党竞争与选举强制的限制：来自哥伦比亚的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251352656

Andres D Uribe

{"title":"Party competition and the limits of electoral coercion: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Andres D Uribe","doi":"10.1177/00223433251352656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251352656","url":null,"abstract":"In democracies around the world, armed non-state actors often use force to influence the outcome of elections. These actors leverage the threat of violence to deter candidates they oppose and intimidate voters into turning out for politicians they favor. But we know little about when these attempts succeed or fail. I show that the effectiveness of coercive interventions in elections is inhibited by local party competition. Competitive electoral constituencies attract attention and investment from parties, political elites, and civil society, restricting the ability of armed actors to successfully coerce voters and politicians. I evaluate this argument against evidence from a paradigmatic case of violent intervention in elections: the attempted capture of the 2002 Colombian Senate elections by the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). I find that the AUC’s efforts to channel votes toward allied politicians succeeded in party strongholds but overwhelmingly failed in competitive constituencies. Mechanism tests provide evidence that this relationship operates through the channels I theorize. Robust democratic competition, these results suggest, may offer a bulwark against the violent capture of democracy.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Conflict exposure and democratic values: Evidence from wartime Ukraine 冲突暴露与民主价值：来自战时乌克兰的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1177/00223433251347769

Kristin M Bakke, Marianne Dahl, Kit Rickard

{"title":"Conflict exposure and democratic values: Evidence from wartime Ukraine","authors":"Kristin M Bakke, Marianne Dahl, Kit Rickard","doi":"10.1177/00223433251347769","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251347769","url":null,"abstract":"How do experiences of violence in war shape ordinary people’s commitment to democratic principles? Wars often lead to a temporary suspension of democratic rights, yet extant research suggests that wartime violence can both strengthen and undermine support for democracy. We argue that these effects vary across different dimensions of democracy. Drawing on public opinion surveys fielded in Ukraine in October 2022 and July 2024, amidst the ongoing war with Russia, we examine how experiences of wartime violence affect people’s commitment to protecting three core liberal democracy principles: minority rights, freedom of speech, and free and fair elections. Our most consistent finding is that individuals who have been physically injured or lost a close family member or friend are less likely to be supportive of safeguarding the protection of minority rights. We find weaker, though still suggestive, evidence that such experiences are also related to attitudes toward freedom of speech. By contrast, experiences of wartime violence do not systematically influence views on safeguarding free and fair elections. These results speak to democratic resilience in Ukraine but underscore the importance of assessing individual democratic principles – rather than democracy in the abstract – as experiences of violence may impact different dimensions of democracy differently.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144901707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0