Journal of Peace Research最新文献_第2页

How citizens update their preferences on foreign policy: experimental evidence on Western sanctions 公民如何更新他们对外交政策的偏好：西方制裁的实验证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-21 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag075

Anton Peez,Felix S Bethke

{"title":"How citizens update their preferences on foreign policy: experimental evidence on Western sanctions","authors":"Anton Peez,Felix S Bethke","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag075","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines how citizens update their foreign policy preferences, focusing on the role of policy effectiveness in shaping support for economic sanctions. Economic sanctions often require sustained public support, which depends on perceptions of effectiveness. Using a two-stage experimental design, we investigate how individuals' preferences evolve when presented with information about effectiveness. We examine this updating behavior in “ordinary” times and in times of real-world foreign policy crisis. The study covers three major sanctioning countries—the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States—and four hypothetical scenarios. Our results suggest that citizens indeed update their preferences: effectiveness causes a moderate increase in support, while ineffectiveness causes a significant drop, showing clear negativity bias. For the U.S. sample, we repeated the experiment across four survey waves collected before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a major real-world foreign policy crisis. We find that responsiveness to effectiveness information remained remarkably stable. This demonstrates that citizens update their policy preferences based on instrumental reasoning, showing great consistency across countries, scenarios, and even in times of crisis.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149124169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

International scientific collaboration and political protest 国际科学合作和政治抗议

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-17 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag073

Nils B Weidmann,Mina Rulis,Tore Wig

{"title":"International scientific collaboration and political protest","authors":"Nils B Weidmann,Mina Rulis,Tore Wig","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag073","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Universities as the main institutions of higher education are often assumed to be driving forces of democratization and political liberalization. In autocratic countries, political protest is one of the few ways by which political authority can be challenged, and research has shown that universities often constitute focal points for these protests. However, which universities are particularly likely to see protest? In this paper, we focus on international scientific collaboration. We argue that academic collaboration with universities abroad can facilitate the exchange of information and ideas that challenge autocratic rule. We test our expectations in a preregistered disaggregated study, combining data on academic institutions in autocracies, large publication databases and protest event data. Our findings show that the presence of institutions with a high degree of international scientific collaboration is associated with more protest at a location. However, we find no evidence for our expectation that collaboration with democracies, or in particular disciplines (social sciences), matters more. Overall, our results suggest that beyond the impact on research itself, international academic collaboration can have important political implications in nondemocratic environments.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149124301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of militarized interstate disputes in presidential term-limit evasions: from crisis to consolidation 军事国家间争端在规避总统任期限制中的作用：从危机到巩固

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-08 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag078

Hilal Sert,Anthony J DeMattee

{"title":"The role of militarized interstate disputes in presidential term-limit evasions: from crisis to consolidation","authors":"Hilal Sert,Anthony J DeMattee","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag078","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) have well-documented effects on public opinion and executive authority, yet their implications for domestic institutional change remain underexplored. We argue that interstate conflict reshapes leaders’ incentives in ways that facilitate presidential term-limit evasion (TLE). Early-stage disputes can generate rally effects that expand executive discretion and reduce resistance to constitutional change. As conflicts persist, public fatigue and uncertainty about leadership turnover may increase the appeal of continuity, altering both the feasibility and the mode of institutional reform. We argue that prolonged hostile MIDs make referendums, where executives can mobilize conflict-conditioned public support, more attractive than legislative or judicial channels, which become increasingly risk-averse under prolonged conflict. Using an extended dataset on executive term limits in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America from 1989 to 2023, we show that interstate conflict is most closely associated with referendum-based TLE attempts, and that prolonged hostile disputes substantially raise the likelihood of successful referendum-led evasions. These findings contribute to research on executive aggrandizement, institutional change, and the domestic consequences of international conflict by identifying a pathway through which interstate insecurity can shape constitutional politics. The article shows that conflict does not merely affect public opinion or leader survival; it can also influence how incumbents seek to revise the rules that govern political succession.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The transformation of Mexican cartels and violence against government officials 墨西哥贩毒集团的转变和针对政府官员的暴力

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-07 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag076

Marco Alcocer,Megan Erickson

{"title":"The transformation of Mexican cartels and violence against government officials","authors":"Marco Alcocer,Megan Erickson","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Since the early 2000s, Mexican cartels have increasingly threatened, attacked, and assassinated government officials. Existing explanations emphasize electoral incentives, political vulnerability, and government crackdowns. We propose an additional and largely overlooked explanation: transformations within Mexico’s criminal underworld itself. As large cartels fragmented, more localized criminal organizations emerged, multiplying both symmetric and asymmetric inter-cartel conflicts. We argue that cartel capacity and inter-cartel conflict interact to produce distinct incentives for the targeting government officials. To test these claims, we combine original data on assassinated politicians in Mexico between 2000 and 2018 with existing datasets on attacks against political actors and municipal-level cartel presence. We find that high-capacity cartels and inter-cartel conflicts are the strongest predictors of violence against politicians. While early violence is driven primarily by high-capacity organizations, lower-capacity splinters become significant perpetrators after fragmentation intensifies, but only in municipalities experiencing inter-cartel conflict. Lower-capacity cartels operating alone do not predict assassinations. We further find that cartel dynamics primarily shape violence against local and, to a lesser extent, state-level politicians, but not federal officials. These findings demonstrate that changes within the criminal underworld play central roles in shaping patterns of political violence in Mexico’s ongoing security crisis.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rebel party stigmatization: measuring the political price of a rebel past 反叛者政党的污名化：衡量过去反叛者的政治代价

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-03 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag057

María Ignacia Curiel,Cyrus Samii,Mateo Vásquez-Cortés

{"title":"Rebel party stigmatization: measuring the political price of a rebel past","authors":"María Ignacia Curiel,Cyrus Samii,Mateo Vásquez-Cortés","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The long-term electoral viability of rebel parties depends, in part, on acceptance of them as legitimate political actors. Yet civilians often punish perpetrators of past violence at the ballot box and conflict generates long-term antipathies that can impede democratic integration of former rebels. This paper offers a theoretical conceptualization of rebel party stigmatization and uses an experimental approach in Colombia, informed by interviews on the ground, to clarify the conditions under which stigmatization can be a relevant barrier for rebel parties. First, in semi-structured interviews, rebel party leaders and members uniformly claim that civilian stigmatization of the party is pervasive. Second, we design an endorsement experiment to measure rebel party stigmatization, whether the penalty is distinct from assessments based on ideology or platform, and for whom stigma is strongest. Civilians penalize policies and statements endorsed by the rebel party even when compared to endorsement by ideologically similar parties, indicative of stigmatization. Such rebel party stigmatization is especially strong among two types of citizens. First, citizens who otherwise share a similar ideology with the rebel party but rejected violence are the most stigmatizing, due to a political victimization effect. Second, citizens who did not live in communities with substantial FARC governance and presence are more stigmatizing—those who lived in rebelocracies do not penalize rebel parties but also do not support them strongly.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Civilian compliance and victimization in the Boko Haram insurgency 博科圣地叛乱中平民的服从和受害

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag077

Imrana Buba

{"title":"Civilian compliance and victimization in the Boko Haram insurgency","authors":"Imrana Buba","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag077","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does variation in civilian compliance strategies shape wartime victimization? Across civil wars, some contested communities are displaced while others remain in place despite exposure to armed actors. Existing research explains civilian victimization primarily through armed actors' strategies, with limited attention to how civilians shape its form. I argue that civilian compliance, defined as accommodating the demands of armed actors without formally joining them, is a self-protection strategy that can reduce immediate danger but shifts civilians' exposure toward different forms of victimization. Drawing on fieldwork and a subnational comparison of two contested communities in northeastern Nigeria, I show that variation in civilian compliance shapes how armed actors interpret civilian behavior. Fragmented compliance, in which civilians selectively comply with the actor they perceive as most threatening, produces signals that rival forces interpret as support for the opposing side, prompting punitive operations and displacement. By contrast, dual compliance, in which civilians accommodate both rebels and state forces while presenting compliance as exclusive to each, creates behavioral ambiguity. Lacking clear evidence that civilians assist their rival, armed actors tolerate civilian presence and rely instead on surveillance and coercive extraction. The findings show that patterns of civilian compliance shape armed actors' use of violence, producing displacement in some communities and in situ victimization in others. By identifying civilian compliance as the behavioral signal through which armed actors infer civilian support, the article nuances existing explanations of variation in wartime victimization.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do refugee camps impact hosts' security perceptions? Evidence from Africa 难民营会影响东道国的安全观念吗？来自非洲的证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag070

Kerstin Fisk,Siri Aas Rustad

{"title":"Do refugee camps impact hosts' security perceptions? Evidence from Africa","authors":"Kerstin Fisk,Siri Aas Rustad","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag070","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Previous research argues that negative externalities associated with hosting refugee camps can lead to insecurity. But do hosts living in districts with refugee camps generally feel less secure than those living in districts with no camps? To investigate whether the presence or size of encamped refugee populations affect hosts' perceived safety, we utilize geographically referenced survey data from Afrobarometer alongside information on the sizes and locations of refugee camps at the district level. To account for theoretically plausible mediating effects, we also examine the influence of several dimensions of state capacity on security perceptions. We find no general effect of hosting a refugee camp on local-level security perceptions, regardless of camp population size. Rather, our results show that refugee camp hosts feel safer from violence and crime when the state's security and administrative capacity are strong, but not otherwise. Our findings help illuminate the factors that contribute to individuals' opinion formation regarding their security, demonstrating that state-building can act as a significant mediator of security perceptions in countries that host forced migrants.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do protest bans make police repression more acceptable? Experimental evidence on the effects of legal repression from Turkey 抗议禁令会让警察的镇压更容易被接受吗？来自土耳其的关于法律镇压效果的实验证据

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag060

Mert Arslanalp,Ulaş Erdoğdu,T Deniz Erkmen

{"title":"Do protest bans make police repression more acceptable? Experimental evidence on the effects of legal repression from Turkey","authors":"Mert Arslanalp,Ulaş Erdoğdu,T Deniz Erkmen","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In explaining whether protest repression incites or suppresses mobilization, research on the repression–dissent nexus has underlined the importance of how the public views protests or their repression. This literature, however, generally does not differentiate between various forms of protest repression, examining primarily police violence; nor does it account for possible interactions between these various forms of repression. In this paper, emphasizing the varied and multilayered nature of repression, we posit that legal forms of repression can legitimize police repression in the eyes of the public. Using a 2 × 3 vignette survey experiment in Turkey, we find that the declaration of a protest ban prior to a protest increases public approval of subsequent police repression and more forceful forms of repression. This effect varies by protest issue, gender, and individuals' predisposition to comply with state decisions. Contrary to our expectations, however, it does not vary by the partisan identity of respondents. Using original data from an authoritarian context, this article contributes to the literature on the interplay between protest repression and public opinion by showing that legal repression operates not only through deterrence but also by generating public support for subsequent police repression.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Guardians of the regime: secret police formation in autocracies 政权的守护者：独裁国家的秘密警察组织

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag079

Marius Mehrl,Mila Pfander,Theresa Winner,Cornelius Fritz

引用次数: 0

Ceasefires and civilian targeting in civil war 停火和内战中的平民目标

IF 3.6 1区社会学

Journal of Peace Research Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1093/jopres/xjag068

Corinne Bara,Maurice P Schumann

{"title":"Ceasefires and civilian targeting in civil war","authors":"Corinne Bara,Maurice P Schumann","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag068","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Civilian suffering in civil wars regularly triggers calls for ceasefires, but do ceasefires actually stop the killing of civilians? Civilians account for a significant share of fatalities in contemporary civil wars, yet it is unclear whether and under which conditions ceasefires alleviate civilian suffering. We argue that ceasefires indeed decrease the intentional targeting of civilians by changing expectations and heightening scrutiny of belligerents’ conduct, which raises the risk of audience costs. To test this argument, we combine global ceasefire data with matching and difference in differences estimators. We find that ceasefires reduce civilian targeting on average but this effect is conditional on support by third parties. When a belligerent is backed by foreign governments, especially liberal democratic ones, restraint toward civilians increases under ceasefire. Additional analyses show that international attention to the conflict country spikes in the month a ceasefire is concluded, highlighting the importance of attentive international audiences for audience costs to materialize. These findings underscore the substantial influence external supporters can exert in enforcing norms of civilian protection and mitigating harm in civil wars.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0