Journal of Peace Research最新文献

{"title":"Prior government experience of rebel leaders and civil war duration","authors":"Emre Cebeci","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag071","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Why does conflict termination occur during some rebel leaders’ tenures but not others? Under similar structural and organizational conditions, can rebel leadership help explain this variation? Although recent research has increasingly examined the role of rebel leaders, explanations of civil war duration have more often emphasized conflict-level and organizational conditions. This study builds on the emerging leader-level perspective by examining whether rebel leaders’ prior government experience affects the likelihood of conflict termination during their tenure. It argues that leaders with this experience may have capabilities that shorten conflict. Prior government experience can give future rebel leaders direct familiarity with state institutions and high-level political decision-making. This experience may help them build more effective rebel organizations and better assess opportunities for conflict termination once war begins. The argument is tested with data from the ROLE and UCDP Conflict Termination datasets for the period 1980–2011. Using Cox proportional hazards models, the study analyses the duration of civil war under individual rebel leaders. The results provide strong and consistent evidence that prior government experience significantly increases the likelihood of conflict termination during a leader’s tenure. Additional analyses are consistent with the article’s capability framework, showing that government experience is associated with stronger rebel organizational development and wartime performance. These results underscore the importance of distinguishing among leadership backgrounds and suggest that prior government experience can significantly shape civil war duration.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Purging the police in nascent democracies","authors":"Monika Nalepa,Barbara Maria Piotrowska","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag069","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How do new democracies reckon with inherited authoritarian enforcement agencies? Obviously, they can disband these agencies and build new ones (thorough purge) or make former agents work for the new regime (no purge). A third way is to purge selectively: evaluate each agent, case by case. We argue that, even accounting for self-selection, such selective purges are most likely to succeed when agents are moderate in competence and ideology. When the pool of agents is less competent or more loyal to the ancien regime, selective purges give way to thorough purges; when competence and loyalty are high, “no purges” are preferred. This theory is supported with data on the operation of vetting commissions in 49 sub-national regions of Poland. We analyze these data after developing a systematic approach to case selection that builds on the Most Similar Systems Design method, traditionally used for theory building.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From state heroes to social pariahs? Civilian hiring and voluntary service in Russia’s war in Ukraine","authors":"Sergey Alexeev","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag064","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has produced a politically charged cohort of veterans whom the state publicly celebrates as heroes. Yet in a context where even the word “war” can be criminalised, how civilians actually regard different categories of service is difficult to observe through conventional measures. This research note uses labour-market behaviour as a window into those politically sensitive distinctions. Combining a correspondence audit—a standard tool in discrimination research—with a Bayesian sequential design that learns efficiently under real-world constraints, I sent 60 matched pairs of fictitious résumés to vacancies on major Russian job platforms in 2025. Within each pair, one applicant signalled voluntary contract service in the war, the other only routine conscription. Applicants foregrounding voluntary service received roughly a third fewer callbacks (Δ=0.18, 95% credible interval above zero), with consistent results across Bayesian and frequentist specifications. The design cannot identify the mechanism behind this penalty—employers may be reacting to perceived trauma, discipline concerns, reputational risk, or quieter political distancing from the war. But the finding is clear: in this platform-based segment of Russia’s civilian labour market, signalling voluntary participation in the war reduced employer interest rather than enhancing it. If the state’s heroic narrative translated straightforwardly into civilian life, the opposite should hold.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"379 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landmark UN Security Council resolutions, agenda setting, and warring parties’ peacebuilding commitments","authors":"Cameron Mailhot","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag061","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What is the relationship between United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and warring parties' peacebuilding commitments? The UNSC has adopted various landmark resolutions with the goal of codifying what it deems necessary for promoting lasting peace and security. However, little is known about whether there have been systemic shifts in the subsequential peacebuilding commitments that warring parties make as they transition out of armed conflict. I address this gap in two parts. First, I develop a theoretical framework to explain the agenda-setting role that landmark resolutions play in peace processes; in doing so, I explicate a mechanism through which agenda setting operates: the mandated activities of the United Nations’ (UN's) field missions. Second, I test this theory by leveraging insights from the PA-X Peace Agreement Database and the original Mandates of International Organizations' Missions dataset. In line with my framework, I find that warring parties incorporate different landmark resolutions' thematic issues into their peacebuilding commitments at higher rates following the resolutions' adoption as compared to time periods before their adoption, and UN missions' mandated promotion of the resolutions' thematic issues is consistently associated with higher rates of incorporation. Alternative models and placebo tests examining the mere presence of UN missions and the mandated activities of regional organizations' missions further substantiate these findings.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effects of population settlements and territorial labeling on domestic audience: Evidence from Israeli settlements in the West Bank","authors":"Oded Haklai,Anna Zhang","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract States trying to absorb previously external territories under dispute need to convince their national community that the newly acquired territory is an indivisible part of the homeland, important for national security, identity, and prosperity, and is generally worthy of incorporation even at a cost of a protracted conflict. Two strategies that states use to this end are territorial labeling, which means assigning a name to the territory that evokes intrinsic ties to the nation's history and populating the acquired territory with members of the national community (population settlements). To date, no empirical study has evaluated the impact of these two strategies. Using an original survey experiment in the case of Israel, we test the impact of territorial labeling and population settlements on the propensity of Israeli Jews to view the territories Israel conquered from Jordan in the 1967 war (West Bank/Judea and Samaria) as tied to their homeland, important for economic prosperity and national security, and on support for annexation and continued population settlements. We find that territorial labeling is consequential for all our outcomes of interest, whereas the impact of population settlements, specifically the demographic concentration of conationals, is on perceptions of connection to historic homeland and security importance, with no observed effect on policy preferences. These findings have theoretical implications for our understanding of how national territories are socially constructed and made seem more indivisible, demonstrating specifically the impact of symbolic-discursive practices and tangible, material changes on territorial attachments and policy preferences in territorial conflicts.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"5 1 1","pages":"928-941"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Participation yielding stigmatization? Demobilized rebels' protest involvement and public opinion","authors":"Christoph D Sponsel","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While significant literature exists on the political participation of demobilized rebels in party politics, research on their participation in protests is scarce. However, protests are likely in societies transitioning from conflict, and demobilized rebels are likely participants. If the former rebels carry a negative image, for instance, due to wartime violence and atrocities, their participation may reduce protest support. Based on a survey experiment conducted in Colombia, this article examines whether demobilized rebels' participation in protests alters citizens' attitudes toward protests. Results show that former rebels' participation, particularly during protests involving vandalism, significantly reduces citizens' support for protests, whereas a name change of the rebel successor organization may mitigate this effect. The analysis contributes to our understanding of the extent to which former rebels' political participation is accepted, the effectiveness of stigmatization tactics employed by protest opponents, and how protesting outgroups may mitigate potential stigmatization.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"40 1","pages":"804-816"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political consequences of ethnic rebel governance: evidence from the Myanmar conflict","authors":"Jiwon L Kim","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag043","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Is trust for different political actors in ethnic conflict settings competitive in nature? How does rebel governance provision influence the perceived legitimacy of the rebel and other actors in a conflict? This study investigates the political consequences of reported exposure to ethnic rebel governance across Myanmar's ethnic minority areas through an original online survey. It finds that more exposure to legitimacy-enhancing rebel governance, such as education and medical services, is associated with higher trust in the rebels and lower trust in an emerging non-ethnic resistance movement, the National Unity Government (NUG). This is true when the ethnic rebel is not seen as explicitly supporting the NUG. However, exposure to legitimacy-eroding rebel governance, such as violence against civilians or forcible recruitment, has a more nuanced relationship. Although associated with lower trust in the ethnic rebels, it is not associated with higher trust in the NUG. Only the positive records of rebel governance are counted against a competitive political actor, possibly suggesting people's preferential affinity for coethnic rebels.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"9 1","pages":"817-831"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Of monsters and martyrs: the mutability of public perceptions of international human rights conditions","authors":"Brittnee Carter,Clayton Webb","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag042","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Can presidents use human rights rhetoric to manipulate public perceptions of foreign countries and build support for foreign policies? Previous research shows that public perceptions of human rights conditions in foreign countries affect public support for military intervention. This makes public perceptions of human rights a potential political tool. Political leaders can weave narratives about human rights conditions in foreign countries to persuade their publics that monsters should be punished and/or martyrs should be aided. Because most people are poorly informed about international affairs, public perceptions of international human rights conditions are ripe for manipulation. Worse, the tendency of the public to focus on negative information makes it easier to shift their perspectives in a negative direction; leaders will find it especially easy to generate public consent for conflictual foreign policies. We use a novel, nationally representative, between subject, pre–post experimental design to test our theory and compare our findings to previous research. The results show that public beliefs about human rights conditions are easy to change and that people are more likely to adjust their beliefs about human rights conditions when they are provided with negative information. Additional analyses show that these changes in perceptions affect public support for changes in trade policy and diplomatic relations with targeted states.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"59 1","pages":"889-901"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148933911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How portraying women's wartime victimization shapes perceptions of their leadership potential","authors":"Alexis Ye Eun Jang","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag039","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Does portraying women as wartime victims shape citizens’ perceptions of their leadership potential? Conflict-related media coverage disproportionately frames women as victims of war, yet little is known about whether these portrayals shape public attitudes toward women's political authority in security and foreign policy—domains in which women remain significantly underrepresented. Highlighting gendered victimization may increase support for women's representation by casting women as especially attuned to humanitarian suffering and the needs of vulnerable populations. At the same time, such portrayals may activate paternalistic protectionism that undercuts confidence in women's political authority. Analysis of over 15,000 Facebook posts from 17 major news outlets covering conflicts in Afghanistan, Israel–Palestine, and Ukraine–Russia shows that women's wartime suffering is a persistent feature of conflict coverage, consistently outnumbering references to men's victimization and frequently linked to children, sexual violence, and social vulnerability. An original preregistered survey experiment in the United States (N = 995) provides causal evidence that exposure to narratives emphasizing women's wartime suffering increases support for women's leadership in peacebuilding, including conflict resolution and postconflict negotiations. These effects, however, do not extend to support for women's leadership in militarized security domains such as national defense or warfare, revealing an asymmetry in how victimhood shapes gendered leadership evaluations. Exploratory analyses further indicate that although victimization narratives heighten support for women's descriptive and substantive representation, they also strengthen benevolent sexism, which activates stereotypes that women lack the competence associated with hard security roles. Together, these findings suggest that highlighting women's wartime experiences can broaden demand for their inclusion in peacebuilding, yet expanding their authority in militarized security roles will require long-term shifts toward gender-egalitarian norms.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"13 1","pages":"902-915"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148933912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"She who pays for stereotypes: female leaders and military spending","authors":"Nila Zarepour-Arizi","doi":"10.1093/jopres/xjag040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjag040","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The elections of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah in Namibia and Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico as the first female presidents mark a milestone in the historic progress of women to the executive. This growing number of female leaders has attracted considerable attention from scholars and the public. While some research suggests that women adopt more masculine and assertive policies, others find no significant differences in policy preferences of male and female leaders. Building on “social role theory” and the “lack of fit” model, I suggest that female leaders are more inclined to pursue assertive policies, such as increasing military spending, as a strategy to assert their competence as national leaders and navigate gendered biases. Given the small number of female leaders and their nonrandom election, I incorporate entropy weighting into two-way fixed-effects models and a staggered difference-in-differences to examine the relationship between female leaders and military spending from 1966 to 2021. The results indicate that countries with women in leadership tend to increase their military spending slightly more than those led by men. However, such behavior is mitigated as the share of women in the legislature increases. Additionally, this increase in military spending corresponds with a relative reduction in health and education expenditures. These findings contribute to broader discussions on how stereotypes and sexism influence spending decisions made by female leaders.","PeriodicalId":48324,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Peace Research","volume":"11 1","pages":"955-966"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148934126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}