DECISION SCIENCES最新文献

{"title":"Procurement risk management in a petroleum refinery","authors":"Fernando S. Oliveira","doi":"10.1111/deci.12536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12536","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analyze a petroleum refinery's procurement strategy, explaining how risk management affects optimal sourcing from long-term, spot, and swap contracts. We use time series analysis to model the interaction between petroleum prices, transportation costs, and gross product worth. These models are then used to generate the scenarios incorporated in the stochastic program applied to compute the conditional value-at-risk. We prove the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal procurement and risk management strategies, and show that risk aversion can be better represented by the weighted average between expected profit and conditional value-at-risk, deriving the respective ISO curves. We estimate that an increase in the degree of risk aversion decreases the use of swap contracts. Our model is applied to the analysis of a refinery based in Singapore. Using regression analysis, we show we cannot reject the hypothesis of a statistically significant relationship between the way Saudi Arabia prices the long-term contracts and the shape of the forward curve. We then study how risk aversion influences the procurement strategies, profitability, and risk exposure of the refinery. Finally, we analyze the pricing of long-term (forward) contracts by Saudi Arabia, and study how the country could benefit from a different pricing policy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 3","pages":"277-296"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12536","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50134632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Special Issue on Data Mining & Decision Analytics","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/deci.12537","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12537","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"52 3","pages":"542"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85961878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supplier selection in the aftermath of a supply disruption and guilt: Once bitten, twice (not so) shy","authors":"Mikaella Polyviou,&nbsp;M. Johnny Rungtusanatham,&nbsp;Thomas J. Kull","doi":"10.1111/deci.12528","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12528","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The supply management literature assumes that supplier selection is devoid of emotions and unaffected by the history and experience associated with a previously-selected supplier. In this paper, we relax these assumptions. Specifically, we consider the following sourcing opportunity: a sourcing professional had (alternatively, had not) recommended a critical-component supplier that originated an avoidable (alternatively, unavoidable) supply disruption (aka, the “disrupted supplier”). In the aftermath of this supply disruption, the sourcing professional is asked to recommend a supplier for a new-to-beoutsourced critical component (i.e., one unrelated to the component whose flow was interrupted), taking into consideration the influence of guilt as an emotional reaction to the supply disruption. Analyses of data from 286 sourcing professionals participating in a scenario-based, roleplaying experiment reveal that sourcing professionals experience higher levels of guilt when (a) they (versus their predecessor) had been responsible for selecting a disrupted supplier and (b) they deem the supply disruption to be controllable (versus uncontrollable) by the disrupted supplier. Guilt-laden sourcing professionals are then more likely to recommend a riskier albeit more advantageous supplier for a new-to-be-outsourced critical component. Our results provide the first evidence that prior supplier selection decisions gone awry influence future supplier selection decisions through the emotion of guilt. Moreover, they demonstrate that supply disruptions in one context have carryover effects on future sourcing decisions in unrelated contexts—an insight that is absent from the literature on supply disruptions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"53 1","pages":"28-50"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12528","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85369952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From puzzles to portraits: Enhancing situation awareness during natural disasters using a design science approach","authors":"Naga Vemprala,&nbsp;Charles Zhechao Liu,&nbsp;Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo","doi":"10.1111/deci.12527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12527","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During emergency situations, a quick and concise summary from the deluge of messages improves “situation awareness” and enables informed decisions. However, this is challenging due to the volume, variety, and veracity of information. Grounded in the Situation Awareness Theory, this study presents a streamlined protocol to process millions of social media messages and render them in an easily comprehensible format for various stakeholders to gain deeper insights. Specifically, using a design science approach, we develop a set of artifacts using incremental hierarchical clustering and enhanced text summarization algorithm to produce informative summaries under crisis situations. We implemented our protocol on 2.5 and 3 million tweets collected during the two major hurricanes in 2017 and 2018. The results show that our protocol can derive critical information not captured by Twitter's search tools and mainstream news media and significantly improve on accuracy and efficiency when compared to other contemporary tools.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 2","pages":"211-231"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12527","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50144860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal treatment policies for pelvic organ prolapse in women","authors":"Yueran Zhuo,&nbsp;Senay Solak,&nbsp;Oz Harmanli,&nbsp;Keisha A. Jones","doi":"10.1111/deci.12521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12521","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a very common gynecological disorder greatly affecting the quality of life (QoL) of females in the society. Studies have shown that approximately 40% of women in the United States have POP that requires medical intervention. In clinical practice, there are four treatment options for POP: watchful waiting, conservative treatment, reconstructive surgery, and obliterative surgery. In this study, we utilize practical data obtained through surveys and clinical literature and develop a model to help physicians and POP patients dynamically select treatment options in order to maximize a patient's expected future QoL. Results from the model are presented in the form of optimal policy tables, which can be used by physicians and patients by entering several attributes as inputs, such as the patient's age, current observed QoL defined by the severity of POP symptoms, preferences over preserving coital function, and other potential restrictive conditions. The results show significant socioeconomic incentives for potential utilization of optimal treatment policies in POP treatment. We estimate based on QoL to dollar conversions that the expected value of improved QoL for an individual POP patient is around $10,000. When aggregated over the entire POP population seeking treatment, the total annual expected value for the society is at least $675 million under medium-level valuations of QoL. Although the optimization-based policies imply an overall increase of about $200 million in annual POP treatment costs, the net positive gains can make this trade-off an acceptable one.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 2","pages":"154-176"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12521","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50142996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of offline trade in sharing accommodation","authors":"Yating Li,&nbsp;Liying Mu","doi":"10.1111/deci.12523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the past few years, sharing accommodation—wherein hosts with vacant properties trade with consumers in need of accommodation through an intermediary platform—has emerged as a prevalent business model; popular examples include Airbnb (United States) and Tujia (China). The platform serves as an intermediary that connects two sides of the market and earns a profit by collecting service fees from both parties. Recently, an interesting phenomenon—where property hosts and consumers bypass the intermediary and trade offline—has been widely reported in practice. Motivated by this observation, this article studies the decision making of the platform (e.g., service fees, penalties) in the presence of offline trading. Our analysis reveals several interesting insights. First, in contrast to conventional wisdom, consumers may be harmed by the introduction of offline trading. This provides a novel direction for the platform to mitigate offline trading—advertising the harm that offline trading poses to consumers and advocating for a refusal of offline trade at the source. Further, while the service fees charged from the hosts and consumers are, in some sense, substitutable when offline trade is ignored, the platform should limit the service fees charged to the consumers in the presence of offline trading. Finally, a higher penalty charged on detected offline trade could backfire and lead to a lower profit for the platform; as such, our results caution policymakers to take offline trading into account before making any operational decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 1","pages":"101-112"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50119334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Achieving supply chain efficiency and resilience by using multi-level commons","authors":"Sunil Chopra,&nbsp;ManMohan Sodhi,&nbsp;Florian Lücker","doi":"10.1111/deci.12526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12526","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We offer the notion of “commons” at different levels—within company, private across company, and government-sponsored across-industry sectors—and discuss how the creation of such commons enabled firms to be both efficient during normal times and resilient against the disruptions resulting from COVID-19. At the same time, there are many proven strategies providing resilience in supply chains. For instance, companies that used multiple channels to improve efficiency when facing day-to-day demand-and-supply variations found that the structure also offered resilience without additional cost when COVID struck. We discuss how the presence of commons lowers the cost for firms to adopt such resilience-building supply chain strategies. We discuss factors that impact the creation of these commons and conclude with a number of questions to guide further research into the role of industry commons in facilitating supply chain resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"52 4","pages":"817-832"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12526","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137669959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"System Performance Implications of Capacity and Flexibility Constraints on Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains","authors":"Arunachalam Narayanan,&nbsp;Alan W. Mackelprang,&nbsp;Manoj K. Malhotra","doi":"10.1111/deci.12525","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12525","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Utilizing behavioral experiments involving approximately one thousand subjects, we empirically evaluate the relationship between volume flexibility and the Bullwhip Effect (BWE). We not only evaluate differences in the level of BWE, but also differences in associated system performance. We find that systems with hard capacity constraints are effective at limiting BWE, but also produce very poor customer service levels. However, systems with low levels of volume flexibility generate similar performance as fully flexible systems but do so while also generating a lower BWE. In a multi-echelon setting, we show that having partial volume flexibility at the upstream echelon helps in reducing order variance, with no significant drop in service level in the supply chain. This is particularly useful in those manufacturing environments which prefer stable orders for production planning without affecting the downstream customer service level. Counterintuitively, both experiments uncovered instances of irrational behavior where participants invoked flexibility in ways that did not always enhance system performance. In addition, these experiments also established enhancements in BWE and system performance through introduction of incremental volume flexibility into upstream echelon of a supply chain.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"53 5","pages":"783-801"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12525","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88524591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A flexible and optimal approach for appointment scheduling in healthcare","authors":"Alex Kuiper,&nbsp;Michel Mandjes,&nbsp;Jeroen de Mast,&nbsp;Ruben Brokkelkamp","doi":"10.1111/deci.12517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12517","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Appointment scheduling is generally applied in outpatient clinics and other healthcare services. The challenge in scheduling is to find a strategy for dealing with variability and unpredictability in service duration and patient arrivals. The consequences of an ineffective strategy include long waiting times for patients and idle time for the healthcare provider. In turn, these have implications for the perceived quality, cost-efficiency, and capacity of healthcare services. The generation of optimal schedules is a notoriously intractable problem, and earlier attempts at designing effective strategies for appointment scheduling were based on approximation, simulation, or simplification. We propose a novel strategy for scheduling that exploits three tactical ideas to make the problem manageable. We compare the proposed strategy to other approaches, and show that it matches or outperforms competing methods in terms of flexibility, ease of use, and speed. More importantly, it outperforms competing approaches nearly uniformly in approaching the desired balance between waiting and idle times as specified in a chosen objective function. Therefore, the strategy is a good basis for further enrichments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 1","pages":"85-100"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12517","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50131487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retail inventory shrinkage, sensing weak security breach signals, and organizational structure","authors":"Hung-Chung Su,&nbsp;M. Johnny Rungtusanatham,&nbsp;Kevin Linderman","doi":"10.1111/deci.12524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12524","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Retail inventory shrinkage, resulting primarily from employee theft and shoplifting, costs retailers nearly $70 billion annually. With brick-and-mortar retailers today confronting increased competition and low future growth expectations, reducing inventory shrinkage is becoming even more critical to becoming profitable. This paper analyzes a unique dataset that combines both primary survey and objective archival data from a Fortune 500 retailer to test a theoretical model associating retail inventory shrinkage, the capacity of a retail store to sense weak security breach signals, centralization of decision making, and formalization of security breach management. The analysis builds on insights from high reliability organization theory and the literature on organizational structure. Results reveal that as a retail store increases its capacity to sense weak security breach signals, it observes decreases in store-level inventory shrinkage, with this negative association amplified (dampened) when the retail store has formalized procedures and protocols for managing security breaches (has centralized decision making within the retail store). Moreover, while the establishment of formalized procedures and protocols for managing security breaches bolsters the capacity of a retail store to sense weak security breach signals, centralizing decision making has the opposite effect. Our findings contribute to the retail operations literature by introducing a new store-level organizational capability to guard against theft-based retail inventory shrinkage and by offering novel insights into how and why organizational structure at the level of a retail store deters or facilitates the capacity to sense weak security breach signals. From a practical perspective, these findings advise retailers to develop the capability to become aware of and to mitigate security breaches. Further, to support this capacity, retailers are urged to decentralize decision making to retail store personnel and to invest in formalizing procedures and protocols for managing security breaches in order to deter retail thefts that shrink retail store inventory.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 1","pages":"8-28"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12524","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50145216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}