DECISION SCIENCES最新文献_第9页

Reducing the cost of B2B logistics via night deliveries: Does it really work? 通过夜间配送降低B2B物流成本：这真的有效吗？

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-23 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12522

Yoshinori Suzuki, Bo Lan

引用次数: 0

Procurement risk management in a petroleum refinery 炼油厂采购风险管理

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/DECI.12536

F. S. Oliveira

引用次数: 1

Procurement risk management in a petroleum refinery 炼油厂采购风险管理

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12536

Fernando S. Oliveira

{"title":"Procurement risk management in a petroleum refinery","authors":"Fernando S. Oliveira","doi":"10.1111/deci.12536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12536","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We analyze a petroleum refinery's procurement strategy, explaining how risk management affects optimal sourcing from long-term, spot, and swap contracts. We use time series analysis to model the interaction between petroleum prices, transportation costs, and gross product worth. These models are then used to generate the scenarios incorporated in the stochastic program applied to compute the conditional value-at-risk. We prove the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal procurement and risk management strategies, and show that risk aversion can be better represented by the weighted average between expected profit and conditional value-at-risk, deriving the respective ISO curves. We estimate that an increase in the degree of risk aversion decreases the use of swap contracts. Our model is applied to the analysis of a refinery based in Singapore. Using regression analysis, we show we cannot reject the hypothesis of a statistically significant relationship between the way Saudi Arabia prices the long-term contracts and the shape of the forward curve. We then study how risk aversion influences the procurement strategies, profitability, and risk exposure of the refinery. Finally, we analyze the pricing of long-term (forward) contracts by Saudi Arabia, and study how the country could benefit from a different pricing policy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 3","pages":"277-296"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12536","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50134632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Special Issue on Data Mining & Decision Analytics 数据挖掘与决策分析特刊

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12537

引用次数: 0

Supplier selection in the aftermath of a supply disruption and guilt: Once bitten, twice (not so) shy 在供应中断和内疚之后的供应商选择:一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-06-10 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12528

Mikaella Polyviou, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Thomas J. Kull

{"title":"Supplier selection in the aftermath of a supply disruption and guilt: Once bitten, twice (not so) shy","authors":"Mikaella Polyviou, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Thomas J. Kull","doi":"10.1111/deci.12528","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12528","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The supply management literature assumes that supplier selection is devoid of emotions and unaffected by the history and experience associated with a previously-selected supplier. In this paper, we relax these assumptions. Specifically, we consider the following sourcing opportunity: a sourcing professional had (alternatively, had not) recommended a critical-component supplier that originated an avoidable (alternatively, unavoidable) supply disruption (aka, the “disrupted supplier”). In the aftermath of this supply disruption, the sourcing professional is asked to recommend a supplier for a new-to-beoutsourced critical component (i.e., one unrelated to the component whose flow was interrupted), taking into consideration the influence of guilt as an emotional reaction to the supply disruption. Analyses of data from 286 sourcing professionals participating in a scenario-based, roleplaying experiment reveal that sourcing professionals experience higher levels of guilt when (a) they (versus their predecessor) had been responsible for selecting a disrupted supplier and (b) they deem the supply disruption to be controllable (versus uncontrollable) by the disrupted supplier. Guilt-laden sourcing professionals are then more likely to recommend a riskier albeit more advantageous supplier for a new-to-be-outsourced critical component. Our results provide the first evidence that prior supplier selection decisions gone awry influence future supplier selection decisions through the emotion of guilt. Moreover, they demonstrate that supply disruptions in one context have carryover effects on future sourcing decisions in unrelated contexts—an insight that is absent from the literature on supply disruptions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"53 1","pages":"28-50"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12528","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85369952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

From puzzles to portraits: Enhancing situation awareness during natural disasters using a design science approach 从拼图到肖像：利用设计科学方法提高自然灾害期间的情境意识

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12527

Naga Vemprala, Charles Zhechao Liu, Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo

引用次数: 3

Optimal treatment policies for pelvic organ prolapse in women 女性盆腔器官脱垂的最佳治疗策略

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12521

Yueran Zhuo, Senay Solak, Oz Harmanli, Keisha A. Jones

{"title":"Optimal treatment policies for pelvic organ prolapse in women","authors":"Yueran Zhuo, Senay Solak, Oz Harmanli, Keisha A. Jones","doi":"10.1111/deci.12521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12521","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a very common gynecological disorder greatly affecting the quality of life (QoL) of females in the society. Studies have shown that approximately 40% of women in the United States have POP that requires medical intervention. In clinical practice, there are four treatment options for POP: watchful waiting, conservative treatment, reconstructive surgery, and obliterative surgery. In this study, we utilize practical data obtained through surveys and clinical literature and develop a model to help physicians and POP patients dynamically select treatment options in order to maximize a patient's expected future QoL. Results from the model are presented in the form of optimal policy tables, which can be used by physicians and patients by entering several attributes as inputs, such as the patient's age, current observed QoL defined by the severity of POP symptoms, preferences over preserving coital function, and other potential restrictive conditions. The results show significant socioeconomic incentives for potential utilization of optimal treatment policies in POP treatment. We estimate based on QoL to dollar conversions that the expected value of improved QoL for an individual POP patient is around $10,000. When aggregated over the entire POP population seeking treatment, the total annual expected value for the society is at least $675 million under medium-level valuations of QoL. Although the optimization-based policies imply an overall increase of about $200 million in annual POP treatment costs, the net positive gains can make this trade-off an acceptable one.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 2","pages":"154-176"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12521","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50142996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The role of offline trade in sharing accommodation 线下贸易在共享住宿中的作用

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12523

Yating Li, Liying Mu

{"title":"The role of offline trade in sharing accommodation","authors":"Yating Li, Liying Mu","doi":"10.1111/deci.12523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/deci.12523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the past few years, sharing accommodation—wherein hosts with vacant properties trade with consumers in need of accommodation through an intermediary platform—has emerged as a prevalent business model; popular examples include Airbnb (United States) and Tujia (China). The platform serves as an intermediary that connects two sides of the market and earns a profit by collecting service fees from both parties. Recently, an interesting phenomenon—where property hosts and consumers bypass the intermediary and trade offline—has been widely reported in practice. Motivated by this observation, this article studies the decision making of the platform (e.g., service fees, penalties) in the presence of offline trading. Our analysis reveals several interesting insights. First, in contrast to conventional wisdom, consumers may be harmed by the introduction of offline trading. This provides a novel direction for the platform to mitigate offline trading—advertising the harm that offline trading poses to consumers and advocating for a refusal of offline trade at the source. Further, while the service fees charged from the hosts and consumers are, in some sense, substitutable when offline trade is ignored, the platform should limit the service fees charged to the consumers in the presence of offline trading. Finally, a higher penalty charged on detected offline trade could backfire and lead to a lower profit for the platform; as such, our results caution policymakers to take offline trading into account before making any operational decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"54 1","pages":"101-112"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12523","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50119334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Achieving supply chain efficiency and resilience by using multi-level commons 利用多级公地实现供应链效率和弹性

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-05-12 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12526

Sunil Chopra, ManMohan Sodhi, Florian Lücker

引用次数: 0

System Performance Implications of Capacity and Flexibility Constraints on Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains 供应链中能力和灵活性约束对牛鞭效应的系统绩效影响

IF 5.5 4区管理学

DECISION SCIENCES Pub Date : 2021-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/deci.12525

Arunachalam Narayanan, Alan W. Mackelprang, Manoj K. Malhotra

{"title":"System Performance Implications of Capacity and Flexibility Constraints on Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains","authors":"Arunachalam Narayanan, Alan W. Mackelprang, Manoj K. Malhotra","doi":"10.1111/deci.12525","DOIUrl":"10.1111/deci.12525","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Utilizing behavioral experiments involving approximately one thousand subjects, we empirically evaluate the relationship between volume flexibility and the Bullwhip Effect (BWE). We not only evaluate differences in the level of BWE, but also differences in associated system performance. We find that systems with hard capacity constraints are effective at limiting BWE, but also produce very poor customer service levels. However, systems with low levels of volume flexibility generate similar performance as fully flexible systems but do so while also generating a lower BWE. In a multi-echelon setting, we show that having partial volume flexibility at the upstream echelon helps in reducing order variance, with no significant drop in service level in the supply chain. This is particularly useful in those manufacturing environments which prefer stable orders for production planning without affecting the downstream customer service level. Counterintuitively, both experiments uncovered instances of irrational behavior where participants invoked flexibility in ways that did not always enhance system performance. In addition, these experiments also established enhancements in BWE and system performance through introduction of incremental volume flexibility into upstream echelon of a supply chain.</p>","PeriodicalId":48256,"journal":{"name":"DECISION SCIENCES","volume":"53 5","pages":"783-801"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/deci.12525","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88524591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3