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Generational differences in economic perceptions 经济观念的代际差异
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102830
Tomoko Matsumoto , Kenneth Mori McElwain , Kensuke Okada , Junko Kato
{"title":"Generational differences in economic perceptions","authors":"Tomoko Matsumoto ,&nbsp;Kenneth Mori McElwain ,&nbsp;Kensuke Okada ,&nbsp;Junko Kato","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Historical institutionalists have long argued that major events can shape long-term economic perceptions, but the identification of birth-cohort differences has been stymied by methodological difficulties, notably the APC problem. Taking advantage of unique Japanese data and tailored Bayesian modeling, we identify cohort effects in economic perceptions and show that they follow objective macroeconomic trends <em>countercyclically</em>. Cohorts whose formative ages (16–20) overlap with high GDP growth have more pessimistic views about the current and future economy, even in later years. We argue that a strong economy during one's youth raises baseline expectations and makes later, weaker growth appear disappointing. We further find partisan differences in cohort effects, particularly on prospective economic expectations, with greater pessimism among independents and supporters of opposition parties.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102830"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026137942400088X/pdfft?md5=5622fd685c8eb033b7e62ccb7a394429&pid=1-s2.0-S026137942400088X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141960125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Political Representation of Young Adults: Explaining youth's underrepresentation in parties, candidacies and parliaments 青年的政治代表性：解释青年在政党、候选人和议会中代表性不足的原因
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102836
Daniel Stockemer , Brittany Anlar
{"title":"The Political Representation of Young Adults: Explaining youth's underrepresentation in parties, candidacies and parliaments","authors":"Daniel Stockemer ,&nbsp;Brittany Anlar","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102836","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102836"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000945/pdfft?md5=79ec629cdb9d0be660876a322289e2e7&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000945-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141728798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Turning to the radical right: Examining subnational variation in radical right support after ethnic minority success in East Central Europe 转向激进右翼：考察中东欧各国少数民族成功后激进右翼支持率的差异
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102828
Katharine Aha, Catherine Hiebel, Linsey Jensen
{"title":"Turning to the radical right: Examining subnational variation in radical right support after ethnic minority success in East Central Europe","authors":"Katharine Aha,&nbsp;Catherine Hiebel,&nbsp;Linsey Jensen","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The radical right party family is the fastest growing party family in Europe. Initial research centered on East Central Europe has shown that radical right parties receive higher levels of support in reaction to the success of parties that support ethnic minorities. However, the strength of radical right parties can vary considerably within a country. This paper breaks new ground by investigating the subnational factors in ethnically diverse East Central European countries that contribute to the vote share that a radical right party receives within a community. We test hypotheses drawn from the literature on ethnic competition, economic deprivation, and institutional constraints using an original dataset to explore subnational variation in support for radical right parties in national elections since 2000 in Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia. Our research yields two main findings about countries with politically mobilized ethnic minority communities: First, radical right support is lower in ethnically diverse subnational units, and second, radical right support increases after ethnic minority parties have been in government in subnational units which experienced economic decline relative to other subnational units.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102828"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141636566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Examining public perceptions of US campaign finance over time through survey experiments 通过调查实验研究公众对美国竞选资金的长期看法
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102813
Jay Goodliffe , Kesley Townsend
{"title":"Examining public perceptions of US campaign finance over time through survey experiments","authors":"Jay Goodliffe ,&nbsp;Kesley Townsend","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102813","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In <em>Buckley</em> v. <em>Valeo</em> (1976), the US Supreme Court ruled that campaign finance regulations “are appropriate legislative weapons against the reality or appearance of improper influence.” Using data from multiple survey experiments repeated across six CCES surveys from 2012 to 2020, we test whether varied information regarding US campaign finance institutions and laws alter public perceptions of the campaign finance system and campaign finance reform across time, including the perception of improper influence. Respondents had more negative attitudes toward candidates who received support from Super PACs. However, respondents were not moved by primed differences in expenditure limits, coordination, or donation disclosure. Ultimately, we find that the majority of Americans dislike and distrust the campaign finance system and generally remain unmoved by any experimentally-primed differences. These experimental findings remain consistent across time, indicating that attitudes toward the US campaign finance system are stable and resistant to change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102813"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141604840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond disdain: Measurement and consequences of negative partisanship as a social identity 超越蔑视：消极党派作为一种社会身份的测量与后果
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102831
João Areal
{"title":"Beyond disdain: Measurement and consequences of negative partisanship as a social identity","authors":"João Areal","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Negative partisanship, voters’ rejection of a party, increasingly garners scholarly attention. Yet we lack robust empirical evidence on the nature of the concept and how it shapes attitudes towards citizens of the “other side” of politics. In this paper I argue negative partisanship should be conceptualised as a type of social identity, beyond a mere “dislike” of a party. Leveraging a three-wave online panel administered during the 2021 German federal elections, I test the measurement properties of a multi-item scale measuring negative party identification. Further, I examine the effects of negative identities on attitudes towards other citizens by combining the online panel with a nine-country survey. I find that negative identification is at least as stable as (positive) partisanship and it predicts hostile attitudes towards out-voters. These findings suggest that, when dislike of a party becomes part of one’s sense of self, the consequences for social cohesion are particularly egregious.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102831"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000891/pdfft?md5=06c7e3dc8dd0bce84a654ab13abde76e&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000891-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141604838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The unswayed voter: How a polarized electorate responds to economic growth 坚定不移的选民：两极分化的选民如何应对经济增长
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102824
Robert Embree
{"title":"The unswayed voter: How a polarized electorate responds to economic growth","authors":"Robert Embree","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>It is well known that higher economic growth benefits incumbents in elections. However, in the last thirty years, US politics has been marked by substantial increases in political polarization and a decline in the number of swing voters. Accordingly, we would expect that the effect of economic growth on incumbent vote share has declined. Indeed, using a Bartik-type instrument, I present new evidence that state economic growth has a positive effect on incumbent vote share, and that this effect is smaller under conditions of polarization. Using separate state-level and individual-level data sets, I find that the effect of state economic growth on incumbent vote share is smaller when state-level polarization, or individual partisanship, is stronger. Using a swing voting propensity score, I show that swing voting propensity is strongly associated with economic voting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102824"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141604839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are young candidates “sacrificial lambs”? Evidence from the 2012, 2017, and 2022 French legislative elections 年轻候选人是 "牺牲品 "吗？来自 2012 年、2017 年和 2022 年法国立法选举的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102829
Camille Gélix , Philippe Chassé
{"title":"Are young candidates “sacrificial lambs”? Evidence from the 2012, 2017, and 2022 French legislative elections","authors":"Camille Gélix ,&nbsp;Philippe Chassé","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The underrepresentation of young adults is widespread in the parliaments of Western democracies. Yet evidence suggests that voters do not have a negative bias towards young candidates. In this article, we focus on another factor that may contribute to youth underrepresentation: the level of competitiveness in districts where political parties nominate young people. Using data on all candidates who ran for a major political party/coalition in the 2012, 2017, and 2022 French legislative elections, we attempt to determine whether young adults tend to be nominated in districts where they have little or no chance of winning. To do so, we use three different measures of district competitiveness. Our results show that young people – and especially young women – are more likely than others to be “sacrificial lambs”. Our analyses nevertheless indicate that men aged between 31 and 35 have become almost as competitive as older people in 2022.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102829"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141593792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tumultuous pies: Electoral dynamics in the Brexit era 动荡的馅饼：英国脱欧时代的选举动态
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102821
Ali Kagalwala , Thiago M.Q. Moreira , Guy D. Whitten
{"title":"Tumultuous pies: Electoral dynamics in the Brexit era","authors":"Ali Kagalwala ,&nbsp;Thiago M.Q. Moreira ,&nbsp;Guy D. Whitten","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does the emergence of a major new cross-cutting issue dimension reshape electoral dynamics in a stable multi-party democracy? We take advantage of recent developments in the modeling of compositional outcome variables to test rival theoretical propositions about this using data from the 2015, 2017, and 2019 parliamentary elections in England. We find that many of the long-present dynamics, such as economic voting, that were evident in 2015, were either absent or greatly reduced in 2017 and 2019. As such, we conclude that the Brexit debate did indeed crowd out “normal” political debate in 2017 and 2019.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102821"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141593793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When rebels lose: The impact of civil war legacies on contemporary electoral outcomes in Peru, 2011–2021 当叛军失败时：内战遗留问题对秘鲁 2011-2021 年当代选举结果的影响
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102827
Luis De la Calle
{"title":"When rebels lose: The impact of civil war legacies on contemporary electoral outcomes in Peru, 2011–2021","authors":"Luis De la Calle","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Existing research on the electoral legacies of civil wars lacks a comprehensive understanding of the conditions under which certain expectations are valid. To bridge this gap, I explore the impact of Peru's civil war in the 1980s on contemporary electoral outcomes. Peru represents a case where the rebels were defeated by the Fujimori government, despite being responsible for a larger share of the violence. Using a unique dataset at the district level, I analyze the vote shares for Keiko Fujimori and her three primary left-wing opponents in the first rounds of the last three presidential elections. The findings indicate that Fujimori gains a premium in districts more affected by the conflict, while left-wing candidates experience an electoral disadvantage. A detailed analysis of the 2021 election shows that Pedro Castillo was able to offset this negative impact in poorer districts and those more severely affected by COVID-19.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102827"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000854/pdfft?md5=404e24ea171348e965e3212bf2bd26d9&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000854-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141593791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job insecurity and vote for radical parties: A four-country study 工作不稳定与激进党投票：四国研究
IF 2.9 2区 社会学
Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102826
Raul Gomez , Luis Ramiro , Yann Le Lann , Giuseppe Cugnata , Jaime Aja
{"title":"Job insecurity and vote for radical parties: A four-country study","authors":"Raul Gomez ,&nbsp;Luis Ramiro ,&nbsp;Yann Le Lann ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Cugnata ,&nbsp;Jaime Aja","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Job insecurity is a pervasive phenomenon whose effects on support for different parties have attracted increasing attention in the literature. A growing body of research has assessed the relationship between job insecurity and the success of radical parties in Western democracies, but results are still inconclusive due to the complex nature of this independent variable. This article contributes new evidence to the current debates on this topic by analyzing how both objective labour market status and perceived job insecurity are associated with the vote for radical right and radical left parties. Our findings, based on four original surveys conducted in France, Germany, Greece and Spain, suggest that perceived job insecurity is generally associated with greater support for the radical left, but not for the radical right. In contrast, we find the relationship between objective labour market status and support for radical parties to be more ambiguous (and, in most cases, statistically non-significant).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102826"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379424000842/pdfft?md5=169f3702ff26bb5afab3fae1c7a81edb&pid=1-s2.0-S0261379424000842-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141543558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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