Electoral Studies最新文献_第7页

How nuclear power hurts the Greens: Evidence from German nuclear power plants 核能是如何伤害绿党的：来自德国核电站的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102959

António Valentim , Heike Klüver , Cornelius Erfort

引用次数: 0

Do the rich ditch politics? Evidence from Sweden 富人会抛弃政治吗？来自瑞典的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102966

Anton Brännlund , Rafael Ahlskog

引用次数: 0

Populist leaders and the political budget cycle 民粹主义领导人和政治预算周期

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965

Assaf Shmuel

{"title":"Populist leaders and the political budget cycle","authors":"Assaf Shmuel","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of populist leaders has been a notable trend in recent years, not just in developing democracies but in developed ones as well. The phenomenon has attracted wide scholarly interest, studying the effect of populist leaders on various fields of life, including the economy. This paper sheds light on an additional aspect of populist leaders' actions: their utilization of the political budget cycle (PBC). The PBC is a well-known hypothesis claiming the existence of an economic cycle which revolves around national elections, caused by leaders who manipulate the economy to create favourable conditions towards re-election. Although the existence of PBCs has been empirically established, particularly in developing democracies, its link to populism remains to be empirically explored. In this paper we claim that populist leaders make an increased use of the PBC in comparison to other leaders. We substantiate this hypothesis through a comprehensive statistical analysis utilizing a recently released dataset encompassing decades of populist leaders. Our findings reveal robust empirical support for the hypothesis. We find that populist leaders play a major role in driving political budget cycles across different democratic systems, with particularly strong effects in weaker democracies. These findings carry significant implications given the rising prevalence of populist leaders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102965"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of party appeals on age differences in voting 政党诉求对投票年龄差异的影响

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102942

Laura Serra

引用次数: 0

Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India 无效的强制投票可以提高投票率：来自印度的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951

Reshikesav Rajan , Shane P. Singh

引用次数: 0

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting 披着狼皮的东方。狼的袭击与极右翼投票有关，但并不导致极右翼投票

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102957

Nico Sonntag

引用次数: 0

Preferences for female successors: Evidence from a survey experiment among Japanese local politicians 对女性继任者的偏好：来自日本地方政客调查实验的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956

Hikaru Nukui , Hirofumi Miwa , Yoshikuni Ono

{"title":"Preferences for female successors: Evidence from a survey experiment among Japanese local politicians","authors":"Hikaru Nukui , Hirofumi Miwa , Yoshikuni Ono","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Incumbents often serve as critical gatekeepers in the recruitment of new candidates and may even designate their successors upon retirement. Some existing research indicates that the gender of gatekeepers is likely to affect the recruitment of female candidates, a dynamic of particular concern in countries like Japan, where political offices are predominantly held by men. However, it remains unclear whether the underrepresentation of women stems from male incumbents actively discriminating against female candidates during the recruitment process. Through a survey experiment involving over 7000 elected local politicians in Japan, we examine gender biases in the successor selection process and attitudes toward female candidacy. Contrary to our expectations, the results reveal that local politicians, irrespective of their own gender, are more inclined to nominate women over men as their successors. They also believe that these female candidates would receive support from their local constituencies. These findings suggest that the selection practices of incumbents may not significantly contribute to the underrepresentation of women in politics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102956"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144535187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A new dataset of national election dates 选举时间跨越专制和民主（ETAD）：全国选举日期的新数据集

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964

Masaaki Higashijima , Naoki Shimizu , Hidekuni Washida , Yuki Yanai

{"title":"Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A new dataset of national election dates","authors":"Masaaki Higashijima , Naoki Shimizu , Hidekuni Washida , Yuki Yanai","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce the Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD) dataset, which provides comprehensive data on the timing of the national elections in autocracies and democracies between 1945 and 2023. ETAD covers 3,127 legislative and presidential elections in 148 countries. Various research agendas have targeted election timing, but no global dataset measuring precise timing has been available. ETAD provides scholars with detailed information on election timing, including which date an election was held, how many days an election was accelerated or delayed from the initially scheduled date, and why the election timing was changed. ETAD has three distinct features. First, it covers legislative and presidential elections in both autocracies and democracies. Second, it records dates, which allows researchers to operationalize early or delayed elections following their specific purposes. Third, it identifies the major reasons for timing changes, helping us better understand governments’ strategies of changing election timing. ETAD improves our understanding of electoral behavior, institutional constraints, and regime dynamics by bridging gaps in existing research and enabling nuanced analyses. To demonstrate that, we present a research example about opportunistic election timing. The ETAD dataset and its codebook can be downloaded from the author’s website or installed as an R package.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102964"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“And some, I assume, are good people”: Determinants of elites’ strategic discourse about immigrants and refugees “我想，有些人是好人”：精英们关于移民和难民的战略话语的决定因素

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952

João V. Guedes-Neto , Alex Honeker

{"title":"“And some, I assume, are good people”: Determinants of elites’ strategic discourse about immigrants and refugees","authors":"João V. Guedes-Neto , Alex Honeker","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using computational text analysis of US representatives’ tweets during the 2020 election campaign, we examine how geographic representation–specifically, the demographic characteristics of districts–moderate rhetoric about immigrants and refugees. While Republicans are overall more negative toward immigrants than Democrats (but not toward refugees), when it comes to salience, Democrats show strategic communication tailored to the ethnic composition of their districts. In districts that are predominantly non-Hispanic, whiter, and more rural, Democratic representatives reduce the salience of immigrants and refugees in their messages, while increasing it as the share of the Hispanic population rises. This strategic use of salience is not observed in Republican legislators’ tweets. We also find that while Democrats use the terms “immigrant” and “refugee” interchangeably when discussing migrants from the southern border, Republicans’ greater positivity toward refugees responds, in part, to using the term for potential Hong Kong refugees, likely deemed as more deserving of protection. These findings highlight elites’ strategic messaging on immigration and how legislators navigate intraparty politics to satisfy the preferences of their party and constituents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102952"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness 地点错了还是派对错了？LGBTQ2S+候选人与地区竞争力

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953

Elizabeth Baisley, Quinn M. Albaugh

{"title":"Wrong place or wrong party? LGBTQ2S+ candidates and district competitiveness","authors":"Elizabeth Baisley, Quinn M. Albaugh","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sacrificial lambs thesis holds that internal processes lead parties to nominate candidates from marginalized groups in unwinnable districts. This thesis was first developed to explain women's underrepresentation, but it has since been applied to other groups. The case of LGBTQ2S+ candidates presents an opportunity to explore whether the distribution of candidates across parties can account for (some of) the sacrificial lambs pattern. Are LGBTQ2S+ candidates sacrificial lambs because they run in less winnable districts than their straight cisgender (cis) counterparts or because less competitive third parties are more likely to nominate them? We reconceptualize the sacrificial lambs pattern as a gap in district competitiveness. Conceptually, we see this gap as having two components: a <em>within-party component</em> (from differences in <em>where</em> parties nominate members of a marginalized group) and a <em>between-party component</em> (from differences in <em>which</em> parties nominate more members of a marginalized group). We illustrate how to decompose the gap using data on LGBTQ2S+ candidates in Canadian elections, 2015–2021. We construct probability-based measures of district competitiveness and then use Kitigawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to calculate the within- and between-party components. We find large gaps in district competitiveness in 2019 and 2021, the majority of which is attributable to between-party inequalities. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of this inequality reflects within-party inequalities. Our results suggest that efforts to improve LGBTQ2S+ representation will need to address between-party inequalities in addition to the more traditional focus on within-party inequalities. Our approach could be used to study other groups in other contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0