Tumultuous pies: Electoral dynamics in the Brexit era

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102821

Ali Kagalwala , Thiago M.Q. Moreira , Guy D. Whitten

引用次数: 0

Abstract

How does the emergence of a major new cross-cutting issue dimension reshape electoral dynamics in a stable multi-party democracy? We take advantage of recent developments in the modeling of compositional outcome variables to test rival theoretical propositions about this using data from the 2015, 2017, and 2019 parliamentary elections in England. We find that many of the long-present dynamics, such as economic voting, that were evident in 2015, were either absent or greatly reduced in 2017 and 2019. As such, we conclude that the Brexit debate did indeed crowd out “normal” political debate in 2017 and 2019.

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动荡的馅饼：英国脱欧时代的选举动态

在稳定的多党民主制中，新出现的重大跨领域问题如何重塑选举动态？我们利用组合结果变量建模的最新进展，使用 2015 年、2017 年和 2019 年英国议会选举的数据，检验了与之相关的理论命题。我们发现，许多在 2015 年明显存在的长期动态，如经济投票，在 2017 年和 2019 年要么不存在，要么大大减少。因此，我们得出结论，在 2017 年和 2019 年，英国脱欧辩论确实挤掉了 "正常的 "政治辩论。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

13.00%

发文量

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.