Electoral Studies最新文献_第8页

With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods 在群众的帮助下：用法医方法估计选举舞弊

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943

Christoph Koenig

引用次数: 0

Not just who, but how: Further probing the connection between primary election dissatisfaction and general election voting behavior 不只是谁，而是如何：进一步探讨初选不满与大选投票行为之间的联系

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969

Elizabeth N. Simas , Lucas Lothamer

{"title":"Not just who, but how: Further probing the connection between primary election dissatisfaction and general election voting behavior","authors":"Elizabeth N. Simas , Lucas Lothamer","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does divided primary support impact parties and their candidates come the general election? Existing works fail to offer a clear consensus, with some finding evidence of “sour grapes” and defection and others finding that voters ultimately come home to their party. We offer a more recent examination of how support for a losing primary candidate is related to general election voting behavior. In addition, we also hypothesize that dissatisfaction with aspects of how nominating contests are conducted will be related to greater probabilities of defection or abstention. Using original data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find only mixed evidence that dissatisfaction with Joe Biden lead to a greater probability of defecting to Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. More consistently, we find that dissatisfaction with the process that led to Biden's nomination – especially dislike of the roles of Iowa and New Hampshire -- is associated with defection. These findings suggest that parties should think about both the people running and process by which they are nominated if hoping to maximize general election support among their members.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102969"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Place-based resentment and party support in multiparty systems: A study of three consecutive elections in the Netherlands 多党制中基于地域的怨恨和政党支持：对荷兰连续三次选举的研究

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102963

Twan Huijsmans, Wouter van der Brug

引用次数: 0

The politics of litigating and adjudicating electoral disputes: Evidence from Zambia 诉讼和裁决选举纠纷的政治：来自赞比亚的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102955

Øyvind Stiansen , Haakon Gjerløw , Lise Rakner

引用次数: 0

Self-interest and voter support for defund the police 自身利益和选民支持撤资警察

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102958

Marcel Roman , Benjamin Newman

引用次数: 0

Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy 快乐和光荣？英国君主政体有时带来的统一效应

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102961

Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang

引用次数: 0

Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments 欧洲的农村代表权：在国家议会中的地位

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962

Guillem Rico, Rubén García del Horno, Enrique Hernández

{"title":"Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments","authors":"Guillem Rico, Rubén García del Horno, Enrique Hernández","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent research shows a growing rural-urban divide in political attitudes and behavior, which has given currency to expressions like “places that don't matter” and “rural resentment”. Although these accounts point to a crisis of political representation, the topic has hardly been approached from the theories and methods of the unequal representation literature. Against this backdrop, this paper provides a systematic assessment of biases in place-related descriptive representation in 28 European countries. Using data on legislator biographies and geographic and demographic statistics, we first examine the relative presence of legislators with urban and rural backgrounds in national parliaments, and then assess the extent to which parliamentary composition, in terms of members' birthplaces, reflects the broader demographic makeup of country populations. Next, we explore how variation in the territorial background of legislators relates to country, party, and individual-level factors. Results show that rural areas tend to be underrepresented in national parliaments when compared to urban ones. Differences in the descriptive representation of rural areas vary in consistent ways with urbanization levels, electoral system features, parties' characteristic constituencies, territorial embeddedness and ideological orientation, and legislator sociodemographics. The study's results underscore the need for greater scholarly attention to the representation of place—particularly rural areas—to better understand its potential consequences on symbolic marginalization, feelings of exclusion, and a lack of policies addressing their needs, all of which may fuel political polarization and distrust in democratic institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102962"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes 解开城乡鸿沟：身份和刻板印象

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935

Sofia Breitenstein , Toni Rodon , Guillem Riambau , Andreu Rodilla

{"title":"Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes","authors":"Sofia Breitenstein , Toni Rodon , Guillem Riambau , Andreu Rodilla","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resurgence of the rural–urban divide as a factor shaping political attitudes has gained increasing attention in both public and academic discourse. Although often framed in terms of social identities, less is known about whether people actually express rural or urban identities in their own terms. This study investigates whether rural and urban identities exist independently of other identities such as class or ideology, and how they shape perceptions of in-groups and out-groups. Drawing on open-ended survey responses from a representative sample in Spain – a context where the rural–urban divide has gained political relevance – we use a novel text analysis approach to examine how individuals describe the groups they identify with. Findings show that rural–urban identities surface only marginally without explicit prompting, while identities tied to age, ideology, and education are more salient. When primed, some stereotypical traits emerge: rural communities are associated with nature and a relaxed lifestyle, while urban ones are linked to stress and individualism. A more uniform and stereotyped view of rural areas also appears across both rural and urban respondents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102935"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election 对事件的一厢情愿：来自2021年德国联邦选举的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940

Matthew Barnfield , Joseph Phillips , Florian Stoeckel , Vittorio Mérola , Sabrina Stöckli , Benjamin Lyons , Jack Thompson , Paula Szewach , Jason Reifler

{"title":"Wishful thinking in response to events: Evidence from the 2021 German federal election","authors":"Matthew Barnfield , Joseph Phillips , Florian Stoeckel , Vittorio Mérola , Sabrina Stöckli , Benjamin Lyons , Jack Thompson , Paula Szewach , Jason Reifler","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102940"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives 乡村拥护者还是城市盟友？城乡居民对民选代表的要求是什么

IF 2.9 2区社会学

Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937

Lawrence McKay , Christopher Claassen , Petar Bankov , Christopher Carman

{"title":"Countryside champions or urban allies? What rural and urban citizens want from elected representatives","authors":"Lawrence McKay , Christopher Claassen , Petar Bankov , Christopher Carman","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rural-urban divide plays an increasingly clear role in many democracies. Theories suggest institutions and politicians are judged partially based on how people perceive them to represent their kinds of communities. However, the criteria they use for rural/urban representation, and the weight they give it in political choice, remain obscure. What do rural and urban citizens want from their elected representatives? Do rural voters prefer rural ‘champions’ as their representatives? Are urbanites equally drawn to ‘pro-urban’ politicians? We use a pre-registered candidate choice conjoint experiment in Britain with a large rural oversample (n = 3270), varying politicians' residential history, engagement with rural/urban interest groups, affective stance towards rural/urban areas, and advocacy on behalf of rural/urban areas beyond the constituency. Consistent with theory, ruralites generally place greater emphasis on place-based representation. They reward candidates with histories of rural residence (while urbanites do not value urban residence), and for advocating for similar areas outside the locality. They place greater value on politicians working with interest groups representing their area type. Ruralites are also more rewarding of positive in-group affect and unlike urbanites, do not <em>punish</em> candidates for negative, resentful affect about outgroup areas. These effects are pronounced among resentful ruralites, as they tend to favour candidates with an explicitly rural focus of representation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 102937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0