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The heterogeneous impact of European Central Bank asset price surprises on corporate liquidity demand 欧洲央行资产价格对企业流动性需求的异质影响出人意料
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70028
Benedicta Marzinotto
{"title":"The heterogeneous impact of European Central Bank asset price surprises on corporate liquidity demand","authors":"Benedicta Marzinotto","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Theories of corporate liquidity demand build on the notion that firms accumulate cash to safeguard their activities in the face of costly external finance. Monetary policy provides a clear source of exogenous variation in the external finance premium. Using high-frequency-identified asset price surprises, I estimate the impact of European Central Bank monetary policy shocks on euro area corporate cash holdings over 2001–2019. Old firms with large fixed assets react forcefully to expansionary shocks that result in higher asset prices by reducing demand for precautionary liquidity, and access borrowing to finance tangible investment in a second period. This is because these firms are more exposed to valuation effects and can use more debt when accommodating monetary policy is transmitted through the revaluation of assets or, relatedly, when the collateral constraints that they face are predominantly asset-based, which appears to be the case for the euro area.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"552-576"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate shocks, democratization and (a culture of) cooperation 气候冲击、民主化和合作（文化）
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70027
Giacomo Benati, Carmine Guerriero
{"title":"Climate shocks, democratization and (a culture of) cooperation","authors":"Giacomo Benati,&nbsp;Carmine Guerriero","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the direct economic effects of adverse climate shocks are well known, their indirect institutional impact is still poorly understood. To clarify this, we test the idea that adverse climate shocks push time-inconsistent elites to enact inclusive political institutions, and non-elites to embrace strong norms of cooperation. While democratization transfers to non-elites the power to design fiscal policies and thus assures them that they will enjoy a sufficient part of the returns on investing in farming innovations with elites, cultural accumulation delivers an intrinsic return on cooperation allowing the non-elites' credible commitment to investment. Consistent with these predictions, data on a panel of 38 most agricultural countries observed over 1960–2018 imply that the severity of droughts has both a negative and direct effect on agricultural output, and a positive and indirect institutional impact. The latter can be decomposed in a persistent rise in the inclusiveness of the political process, which in turn shifts the allocation of the tax revenues from military to public health service expenditures, and the horizontal, oblique and vertical transmission of norms of trust and respect. Only a culture of cooperation is, in turn, significantly related, with a one-year lag, to the agricultural output.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"524-551"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147564972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corruption disclosure and its impact on labour-related actions 腐败披露及其对劳工相关行动的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70021
Yu Bai, Yanjun Li, Hamza Umer
{"title":"Corruption disclosure and its impact on labour-related actions","authors":"Yu Bai,&nbsp;Yanjun Li,&nbsp;Hamza Umer","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our paper aims to explore the profound impact of corruption-related injustices on organized labour actions. Focusing on China's anti-corruption campaign, we utilize a city–month panel and a difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal impact of corruption disclosure on labour collective actions. Our findings indicate a significant increase in labour unrest incidents following each additional reported investigation of governmental officials. Further analysis reveals that this impact is not driven by sophisticated governmental tolerance or repression of collective actions, but is particularly pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises compared to their state-owned counterparts. The mechanisms through which the negative impact of corruption disclosure on labour unrest occurs include a negative impact of corruption disclosure on inequality perceptions and trust in government, as well as detrimental effects on the profitability and operation of employers.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"377-402"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptive expectations and reaction to information 适应性期望和对信息的反应
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70026
Junyi Liao
{"title":"Adaptive expectations and reaction to information","authors":"Junyi Liao","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper develops a model combining adaptive expectations with noisy signals, and derives three coefficients and one impulse response function (IRF): the Coibion–Gorodnichenko (CG) coefficient capturing consensus under-reaction to information, the Bordalo–Gennaioli–Ma–Shleifer coefficient capturing individual over-reaction, the Kohlhas–Walther coefficient capturing extrapolation, and the Angeletos–Huo–Sastry IRF capturing delayed overshooting. There exists a parameter region in which the model reconciles all four moments with the data simultaneously. The model also delivers a testable prediction linking the CG coefficient to variable persistence, distinguishing adaptive expectations from Kalman-filter updating, and I present supporting evidence for adaptive expectations. The model's fit to survey data is evaluated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"488-523"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147566345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real estate and construction sector dynamics over the business cycle 房地产和建筑行业在商业周期中的动态
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70029
Kostas Vasilopoulos, William J. Tayler
{"title":"Real estate and construction sector dynamics over the business cycle","authors":"Kostas Vasilopoulos,&nbsp;William J. Tayler","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper explores property prices and investment dynamics over the business cycle when there is competition between households and firms for real estate. We introduce a construction sector into a real business cycle framework, which uses land, capital and labour to produce both commercial and residential real estate. This market structure activates a real estate substitution channel, where an increase in demand for residential real estate also increases the cost of producing commercial structures, which crowds out commercial real estate investment. In general, we find that the residential/commercial land allocation acts as an anchor for the allocation of its real estate investment counterpart; however, there are notable separations, particularly following the financial crisis, where there was a simultaneous fall in residential and commercial investment. Our results indicate that while residential real estate prices were predominantly driven by increases in demand in the build up to the financial crisis, the fall in demand for commercial real estate played a significant role in generating price falls for both types of real estate in the aftermath. Furthermore, falls in the overall supply of real estate played an important role in reducing real estate investment, which put upward pressure on prices throughout the past two decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"577-610"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Creative disruption: technology innovations during unexpected turmoil 创造性破坏：在意想不到的混乱中进行技术创新
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70025
Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, Harald Dale-Olsen
{"title":"Creative disruption: technology innovations during unexpected turmoil","authors":"Erling Barth,&nbsp;Alex Bryson,&nbsp;Harald Dale-Olsen","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The 2020 pandemic shock created both local and global turmoil, increasing uncertainty and decreasing production. Utilizing a new survey on Norwegian firms' digitalization and technology investments, linked to population-wide register data, we show that the pandemic massively disrupted the technology investment plans of firms, in terms of both postponing investments and introducing new technologies. We find that more productive firms and firms with more knowledge capital innovated, while firms with less knowledge capital postponed their investments. In the short term, technology adopting firms were more likely to be acquired. Where firms avoided acquisition and continued to operate, they were more likely to grow and to increase the number of knowledge workers in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"468-487"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147567738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
News shocks, consumer confidence and business cycles 新闻冲击、消费者信心和商业周期
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70031
Syed M. Hussain, Zara Liaqat
{"title":"News shocks, consumer confidence and business cycles","authors":"Syed M. Hussain,&nbsp;Zara Liaqat","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks on macroeconomic aggregates. By constructing a novel instrument based on major non-economic news shocks in the USA over 1969–2022, and opinion polls around these events, we identify exogenous changes in consumer confidence. Our instrument explains significant variation in consumer confidence. Furthermore, using a proxy vector autoregression estimator and impulse responses, we document that a positive identified sentiment shock has strong and persistent expansionary effects on output, employment and consumption spending. The dynamic causal effects of sentimental shocks highlighted in this study are robust to various sensitivity analyses and alternative estimations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"648-676"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147570123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
‘Please, don't go’: the role of local public human capital in post-disaster recovery “请不要走”：地方公共人力资本在灾后恢复中的作用
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70033
Federico Zampollo, Andrea Ascani, Alessandra Faggian
{"title":"‘Please, don't go’: the role of local public human capital in post-disaster recovery","authors":"Federico Zampollo,&nbsp;Andrea Ascani,&nbsp;Alessandra Faggian","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the nuanced interplay between local administrative capacity and post-earthquake economic recovery. By focusing on the aftermath of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake, and employing the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator, we shed light on the crucial role of low local public employee turnover as a mitigating factor in curtailing post-disaster job losses and the reduction of business activities. Our findings advance the disaster recovery literature by delving into municipal-level dynamics, highlighting the significance of specific human capital and local administrative stability in fostering socioeconomic resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"705-735"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147563124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-lasting health effects of Soviet education 苏联教育对健康的长期影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70030
Joan Costa-Font, Anna Nicińska
{"title":"Long-lasting health effects of Soviet education","authors":"Joan Costa-Font,&nbsp;Anna Nicińska","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Education systems serve various purposes, including the enhancement of later-life health, though effects can differ by sociopolitical regime. This paper examines the effect of communist education, which exposed children to a distinct curriculum and ideological content, on later-life health. We exploit a novel dataset that collects information on compulsory education reforms in several European countries, with different cohorts exposed and unexposed to Soviet communist education. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we show that while the extension of compulsory education improved some relevant measures of health, communist education encompassed an additional health-enhancing effect. We document that the effect remains robust when using staggered DiD approaches and various robustness tests, and that it is explained by the priority given to physical education in the school curricula, together with an increased likelihood of marriage.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"611-647"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147562390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Race-related research in economics 经济学中的种族相关研究
IF 1.6 3区 经济学
Economica Pub Date : 2026-03-02 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.70022
Arun Advani, Elliott Ash, Anton Boltachka, David Cai, Imran Rasul
{"title":"Race-related research in economics","authors":"Arun Advani,&nbsp;Elliott Ash,&nbsp;Anton Boltachka,&nbsp;David Cai,&nbsp;Imran Rasul","doi":"10.1111/ecca.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Issues of racial justice and economic inequalities between racial and ethnic groups have risen to the top of public debate. Economists' ability to contribute to these debates is based on the body of race-related research. We study the volume and content of race-related research in economics. We base our analysis on a corpus of 225,000 economics publications from 1960 to 2020, to which we apply an algorithmic approach to classify race-related work. Since 1960, less than 2% of economics publications have been race-related. On content, while over 50% of race-related publications in the 1970s focused on Black individuals, by the 2010s this had fallen to 20%. There has been a steady decline in the share of race-related research on discrimination since the 1980s, with a rise in the share of studies on identity. Finally, we apply our algorithm to NBER and CEPR working papers posted over the last four decades, to study an earlier stage of the research process. We document a concentration of race-related research into a few fields, and its continued absence from many others. We discuss implications of our findings for economists' ability to contribute to debates on race and ethnicity in the economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"93 370","pages":"403-438"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147565918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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