Economica最新文献

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12585

Claudia Goldin

{"title":"Babies and the macroeconomy","authors":"Claudia Goldin","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12585","url":null,"abstract":"Fertility levels have decreased greatly in virtually every nation, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia and North America, total fertility rates (TFRs) of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s, plummeting subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in the 1980s have become the ‘lowest low’ nations today (TFRs less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the decades after the Second World War, especially the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with ‘lowest low’ fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GDP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in TFR.","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"675-700"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

In-group bias in preferences for redistribution: a survey experiment in Italy 再分配偏好中的群体内偏见：意大利的一项调查实验

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12584

Riccardo Bruni, Alessandro Gioffré, Maria Marino

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric markup responses to monetary shocks over the business cycle 商业周期中对货币冲击的不对称加价反应

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12581

Nicolás Blampied, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo

{"title":"Asymmetric markup responses to monetary shocks over the business cycle","authors":"Nicolás Blampied, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12581","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12581","url":null,"abstract":"A rich literature has long studied the asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle, generally presenting mixed results. Most of the empirical work, however, focuses on the responses of output and prices. Our analysis centres on the dynamics of the markup, given the key role that it plays in the transmission of monetary policy, the fact that it constitutes a key leading indicator for predicting economic and financial crises, its direct relationship with income distribution, and the scarce studies on the subject. Recent empirical findings suggest that the markup decreases (increases) in response to a monetary policy tightening (easing) shock, a counterintuitive result if we consider the basic New Keynesian model, which delivers a countercyclical response of the markup conditional on a monetary shock. We show that the dynamics of the markup depend on whether the monetary policy shock takes place during a period of expansion or recession, with the markup responding as expected in the New Keynesian model in recessions, but failing to do so in expansions. Our results have important policy implications, providing evidence that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the markup would not be operative during booms.","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"757-782"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12581","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How did the 2012 anti-corruption campaign in China diminish the value of political connections for listed companies? 2012年中国的反腐运动如何削弱了上市公司政治关系的价值？

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12583

Chun-Fang Chiang, Bei Qin

引用次数: 0

Equilibrium labour force participation and the business cycle 均衡劳动力参与与商业周期

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12582

Nikolaos Kokonas, Paulo Santos Monteiro

引用次数: 0

Who closes first? The interaction of market structure and fall in demand in bank branch closures 谁先关门？银行网点关闭中市场结构与需求下降的相互作用

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12579

Alfredo Martín-Oliver, József Sákovics, Vicente Salas-Fumás

{"title":"Who closes first? The interaction of market structure and fall in demand in bank branch closures","authors":"Alfredo Martín-Oliver, József Sákovics, Vicente Salas-Fumás","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12579","url":null,"abstract":"We study the capacity reduction process in an industry with geographically complex market structure, using the case study of the closing of bank branches in Spain in the years following the burst of the credit bubble (2008–14). We geolocate each bank branch and identify as its competitors those branches that lie within 150 metres of it. We find that branches with competitors are less likely to close than branches without, indicative of strategic behaviour. Clustering the circle markets centred within the same census tract using fixed effects, we estimate a negative effect of the number of competitors at the start on both the exit rate in a local market and the probability of closing of an individual branch. This sign is the opposite of both what has been found in the related literature, and what we estimate without the census tract fixed effects. We argue that this negative relationship is rationalizable by a standard free entry model in the presence of fixed costs. We also find that branch closings are faster when the parent bank has other branches in the same local market, which is further evidence for strategic behaviour.","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"701-728"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Which factors affect public support for economic policies? Evidence from a survey experiment about rent control in Germany 哪些因素影响公众对经济政策的支持？来自德国房租管制调查实验的证据

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12580

Mathias Dolls, Paul Schüle, Lisa Windsteiger

引用次数: 0

Unanticipated inflation, unemployment persistence and the New Keynesian Phillips curve 意料之外的通货膨胀，持续失业和新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12578

George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis

{"title":"Unanticipated inflation, unemployment persistence and the New Keynesian Phillips curve","authors":"George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12578","url":null,"abstract":"This paper puts forward an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, with both labour and product market frictions. Frictions in the labour market arise from the power of labour market insiders to periodically preset nominal wages, without full current information. Product market frictions arise from monopolistic competition and staggered pricing. The model results in an insider–outsider New Keynesian Phillips curve (IO-NKPC) that transcends the main limitations of the benchmark and hybrid NKPCs based on staggered pricing, as: (i) it is expressed in terms of unanticipated inflation since current inflation depends on prior expectations about its level; (ii) unemployment (output) and inflation persistence are endogenous; and (iii) the divine coincidence between the stabilization of inflation and employment (output) does not apply, rendering a Taylor-type interest rate rule optimal. Dynamic simulations reveal multifaceted inflation dynamics shaped by the interplay of price stickiness and labour market persistence. An empirical application to the euro area validates the IO-NKPC's superior forecasting performance, highlighting its relevance for understanding inflation dynamics and guiding effective monetary policy design.","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"729-756"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nudging women towards pursuing their university careers 推动女性追求大学生涯

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12577

Juliana Bernhofer, Luca Bonacini, Giuseppe Pignataro

{"title":"Nudging women towards pursuing their university careers","authors":"Juliana Bernhofer, Luca Bonacini, Giuseppe Pignataro","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12577","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the impact of light-touch interventions on the academic outcomes of female scholarship recipients. In a randomized trial involving nearly 2000 students at the University of Bologna, we delivered a targeted message highlighting how higher education can reduce the gender gap in the labour market, and boost employment prospects. The nudge increased the likelihood of meeting scholarship requirements by nearly 5 percentage points, alongside significant gains in passing exams with higher credit values, and a reduction in failed exams in the medium term, with no short-term effects. Notably, there was an improvement in grades during the July/August exam period, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity in academic efforts, even though grades were not part of the requirements for maintaining scholarships. Treated students exhibited enhanced academic focus and more strategic study habits, without increasing overall exam load. These findings highlight the potential of cost-effective informational nudges to drive meaningful changes for women facing financial and informational barriers, providing valuable insights for policies designed to support female students. The results emphasize the importance of well-timed informational interventions in helping women to make informed decisions about their education, ultimately enhancing their academic success and long-term economic prospects.","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"883-919"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12577","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Talent allocation, gender disparities and post-reform economic growth in Central America 人才分配、性别差异与改革后的中美洲经济增长

IF 1.6 3区经济学

Economica Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12575

Rishabh Sinha

引用次数: 0