Babies and the macroeconomy

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economica Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12585
Claudia Goldin
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Fertility levels have decreased greatly in virtually every nation, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia and North America, total fertility rates (TFRs) of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s, plummeting subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in the 1980s have become the ‘lowest low’ nations today (TFRs less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the decades after the Second World War, especially the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with ‘lowest low’ fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GDP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in TFR.

婴儿和宏观经济
几乎每个国家的生育率都大幅下降,但下降的时间在发达国家之间也有所不同。在欧洲、亚洲和北美,一些国家的总生育率(TFRs)早在20世纪70年代就跌破了2.1的神奇更替数字。但在其他国家,生育率在20世纪90年代之前一直保持在较高水平,随后急剧下降。本文解释了为什么在20世纪80年代生育率水平适中的欧洲和亚洲一些国家今天成为了“最低的低”国家(总生育率低于1.3),而早些时候生育率下降的国家却没有。本文还讨论了为什么这两个国家集团的交叉点是在20世纪80年代和90年代左右。区分这两个群体的一个重要因素是它们在第二次世界大战后几十年,特别是20世纪60年代和70年代的经济增长。如今,生育率“最低”的国家在经历了长期的停滞或下降后,人均GDP出现了快速增长。它们迅速进入了现代社会,但其公民的信仰、价值观和传统的变化却更为缓慢。因此,快速的经济变化可能导致代际冲突和性别冲突,从而导致总生育率迅速下降。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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