EconomicaPub Date : 2025-05-15DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12583
Chun-Fang Chiang, Bei Qin
{"title":"How did the 2012 anti-corruption campaign in China diminish the value of political connections for listed companies?","authors":"Chun-Fang Chiang, Bei Qin","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12583","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Measuring time-varying policy intensity as the proportion of relevant newspaper articles, we study how the Chinese government's 2012 anti-corruption campaign affected listed companies from 2012 to 2014. We find that the campaign's first two years decreased the market value of politically connected companies by 7.5%, which is equivalent to 80–83% of the benefit brought by these connections. These impacts were driven mainly by non-government-owned companies, less productive companies, and companies in regions with higher levels of corruption. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that companies with political connections have reallocated more resources to marketing to sustain their operations since the start of the campaign. Additionally, they have retained a larger share of their profits to navigate through more challenging economic and financing conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"979-1008"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-05-13DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12582
Nikolaos Kokonas, Paulo Santos Monteiro
{"title":"Equilibrium labour force participation and the business cycle","authors":"Nikolaos Kokonas, Paulo Santos Monteiro","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12582","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop an equilibrium model of labour force participation to examine the labour market business cycle. The model remains agnostic about unemployment inflows and outflows, modelling these flows with a structural moving average representation derived from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model. Estimating the augmented dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on data for the USA, we identify the structural shocks and parameters driving business cycle fluctuations, avoiding misspecified job-finding and job-separation rates. Our results show that real wage rigidities play a minor role, labour force participation is mildly procyclical, and transitions between employment, unemployment and non-participation are strongly cyclical.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"783-822"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-05-06DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12579
Alfredo Martín-Oliver, József Sákovics, Vicente Salas-Fumás
{"title":"Who closes first? The interaction of market structure and fall in demand in bank branch closures","authors":"Alfredo Martín-Oliver, József Sákovics, Vicente Salas-Fumás","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12579","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the capacity reduction process in an industry with geographically complex market structure, using the case study of the closing of bank branches in Spain in the years following the burst of the credit bubble (2008–14). We geolocate each bank branch and identify as its competitors those branches that lie within 150 metres of it. We find that branches with competitors are less likely to close than branches without, indicative of strategic behaviour. Clustering the circle markets centred within the same census tract using fixed effects, we estimate a negative effect of the number of competitors at the start on both the exit rate in a local market and the probability of closing of an individual branch. This sign is the opposite of both what has been found in the related literature, and what we estimate without the census tract fixed effects. We argue that this negative relationship is rationalizable by a standard free entry model in the presence of fixed costs. We also find that branch closings are faster when the parent bank has other branches in the same local market, which is further evidence for strategic behaviour.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"701-728"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-04-23DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12580
Mathias Dolls, Paul Schüle, Lisa Windsteiger
{"title":"Which factors affect public support for economic policies? Evidence from a survey experiment about rent control in Germany","authors":"Mathias Dolls, Paul Schüle, Lisa Windsteiger","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We conduct a survey experiment among 18,000 respondents in Germany to examine the determinants of support for rent control policies. We find that highlighting undesirable price and supply effects lowers respondents' agreement with rent control, while pointing out that it can prevent the displacement of low-income tenants increases agreement. However, while our treatments shift support for the policy into the hypothesized direction, the effect size decreases with misperceptions. Our results suggest that responsiveness to new information depends largely on prior beliefs, which affect perceived credibility and political neutrality of the received information. Mere information provision may therefore not be sufficient to effectively alter policy views.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"920-958"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12580","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-04-08DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12578
George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis
{"title":"Unanticipated inflation, unemployment persistence and the New Keynesian Phillips curve","authors":"George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12578","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper puts forward an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, with both labour and product market frictions. Frictions in the labour market arise from the power of labour market insiders to periodically preset nominal wages, without full current information. Product market frictions arise from monopolistic competition and staggered pricing. The model results in an insider–outsider New Keynesian Phillips curve (IO-NKPC) that transcends the main limitations of the benchmark and hybrid NKPCs based on staggered pricing, as: (i) it is expressed in terms of unanticipated inflation since current inflation depends on prior expectations about its level; (ii) unemployment (output) and inflation persistence are endogenous; and (iii) the divine coincidence between the stabilization of inflation and employment (output) does not apply, rendering a Taylor-type interest rate rule optimal. Dynamic simulations reveal multifaceted inflation dynamics shaped by the interplay of price stickiness and labour market persistence. An empirical application to the euro area validates the IO-NKPC's superior forecasting performance, highlighting its relevance for understanding inflation dynamics and guiding effective monetary policy design.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"729-756"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12577
Juliana Bernhofer, Luca Bonacini, Giuseppe Pignataro
{"title":"Nudging women towards pursuing their university careers","authors":"Juliana Bernhofer, Luca Bonacini, Giuseppe Pignataro","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12577","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study explores the impact of light-touch interventions on the academic outcomes of female scholarship recipients. In a randomized trial involving nearly 2000 students at the University of Bologna, we delivered a targeted message highlighting how higher education can reduce the gender gap in the labour market, and boost employment prospects. The nudge increased the likelihood of meeting scholarship requirements by nearly 5 percentage points, alongside significant gains in passing exams with higher credit values, and a reduction in failed exams in the medium term, with no short-term effects. Notably, there was an improvement in grades during the July/August exam period, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity in academic efforts, even though grades were not part of the requirements for maintaining scholarships. Treated students exhibited enhanced academic focus and more strategic study habits, without increasing overall exam load. These findings highlight the potential of cost-effective informational nudges to drive meaningful changes for women facing financial and informational barriers, providing valuable insights for policies designed to support female students. The results emphasize the importance of well-timed informational interventions in helping women to make informed decisions about their education, ultimately enhancing their academic success and long-term economic prospects.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"883-919"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12577","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-03-15DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12575
Rishabh Sinha
{"title":"Talent allocation, gender disparities and post-reform economic growth in Central America","authors":"Rishabh Sinha","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12575","url":null,"abstract":"<p>From 1995 to 2015, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama underwent significant labour market transformations, particularly in the occupational distribution and participation of women. This paper examines these shifts through an occupational choice model, focusing on three key frictions affecting efficient talent allocation: labour market discrimination, barriers to human capital accumulation, and restrictive social norms. The findings reveal that improved talent allocation drove economic growth in Costa Rica and Panama, primarily due to reductions in barriers to human capital accumulation. In contrast, labour market discrimination intensified, supporting the retaliatory hypothesis and creating headwinds for growth. The aggregate effects in El Salvador are relatively mild and noisy, making it difficult to pin down the impact qualitatively. Nonetheless, prevailing social norms around market work have precipitated sharply in El Salvador for both genders, creating a significant impediment to growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"848-882"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-03-12DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12576
Viet Hoang Dinh
{"title":"The role of consumer sentiment in the transmission of monetary policy to consumer expenditure","authors":"Viet Hoang Dinh","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper shows that changes in consumer sentiment play a quantitatively important role in the transmission of monetary policy on economic activity. Specifically, the paper's empirical estimates indicate that changes in short-term consumer sentiment may very well double the negative responses of consumer expenditure to contractionary monetary policy shocks. In contrast, long-term consumer sentiment plays only a minimal role in the propagation of monetary policy shocks into consumer expenditure.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"823-847"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-03-07DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12574
Joseph Richardson
{"title":"Health risks and labour supply: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Joseph Richardson","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12574","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper explores the relationship between health risks from COVID-19 and UK labour supply, using pre-existing conditions as a source of variation in COVID-19 health risk. We find that those with pre-existing conditions were less likely to work during the pandemic after controlling for a rich set of covariates, including labour supplied pre-pandemic, but only when remote work was unavailable. This relationship begins by April 2020, persists through to September 2021, and shows signs of fading after COVID-19 risks had fallen in 2022. Our results are strong enough to explain a 1–1.5 percentage point drop in employment during the pandemic. Placebo tests confirm that our estimates do not reflect labour demand shocks, and that a negative relationship between pre-existing conditions and labour supplied, conditional upon the covariates, did not exist pre-pandemic.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 367","pages":"959-978"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconomicaPub Date : 2025-02-21DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12573
Jakub Mućk, Łukasz Postek
{"title":"Supply shortages and inflation in Europe","authors":"Jakub Mućk, Łukasz Postek","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12573","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper contributes to the literature by quantifying the effects of supply shortages on inflation in 19 European economies. In contrast to many other papers, it focuses on factual country-specific shortages in materials and equipment reported by enterprises in the business surveys conducted by the European Commission rather than supply chain tensions that are measured only globally or for some major economies. We apply the local projections method in a panel framework, and estimate the responses of nine measures of consumer and producer inflation to supply shortages. We find that supply shortages are inflationary for all considered measures of inflation, and a larger effect can be observed for the inflation of prices of goods rather than services. The peak of impulse responses can be observed 4–6 quarters after a shock, while the effect usually dies out after 8–12 quarters. After a year, a one-standard-deviation shock in supply shortages is followed by annual inflation being higher by 0.7–3.4 percentage points, depending on the inflation measure. Interestingly, the inflationary effects of supply shortages seem to be related mainly to periods of intense global supply tensions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"92 366","pages":"420-456"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143554968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}