When mobility matters: a look at earnings dynamics across Italian generations

Drawing on a matched survey–administrative dataset tracking careers from 1975 to 2018, we examine the trends in intragenerational earnings mobility in Italy over the past 40 years. We compare earnings trajectories from age 35 to age 45 via a refined version of the ‘income risk decomposition’ proposed by Austin Nichols in 2008, distinguishing between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ earnings mobility from an individual welfare perspective. Our findings reveal that the long-run trend of increasing cross-sectional earnings inequality in Italy has been accompanied by widening persistent disparities within the same generation. For all cohorts of workers, at least 80% of inequality is permanent, reaching nearly 90% for the most recent cohort. We also uncover that a substantial share of individuals—between 25% and 39%—do not benefit from stable upward income mobility during a crucial career phase. This issue has worsened over time, with the last ten cohorts experiencing higher income instability ($+20.2$%) and declining upward mobility ($-34.7$%), largely explained by the growing prevalence of atypical employment arrangements. Furthermore, using intragenerational Great Gatsby curves, we show that cohorts exposed to greater earnings inequality also face more persistent differences and reduced earnings growth, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession.