{"title":"Temporal networks and financial contagion","authors":"Fabio Franch, Luca Nocciola, Angelos Vouldis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the dynamics of contagion across the banking, insurance and shadow banking sectors of 18 advanced economies in the period 2006-2018. We construct Granger causality-in-risk networks and introduce higher-order aggregate networks and higher-order node centralities in an economic setting to capture non-Markovian network features. Our approach uncovers the dynamics of financial contagion<span> as it is transmitted across segments of the financial system and jurisdictions. The calculated higher-order centralities identify sectors in distress as the nodes through which contagion propagates. The banking system emerges as the primary source and transmitter of stress while banks and shadow banks are highly interconnected. The insurance sector is found to contribute less to stress transmission in all periods, except during the global financial crisis. The proposed approach is able to identify clearly the sectors that are critical for the transmission of financial contagion, in contrast to the commonly used memoryless measures of network centrality.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101224"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market","authors":"Adrian Carro , Patricia Stupariu","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using granular data from the Spanish Credit Register, we study the contagion of financial distress via the credit quality channel in the Spanish interbank market. We propose a non-linear contagion mechanism dependent on banks’ balance-sheet structure (specifically, their leverage ratios). Moreover, we explicitly model uncertainty in lenders’ assessments of the probability of default of their borrowers, thus incorporating agents’ lack of complete information and heterogeneous expectations in their assessment of future outcomes. We perform multiple simulations across a wide range of possible levels of stress in the system, and we focus on disentangling the effects of these two key model components by comparing the results of our model with those of a linear and deterministic counterpart. In this way, we find that non-linear contagion leads to substantially larger losses than its linear counterpart for a wide range of intermediate levels of stress in the system, while its effects become negligible for very low and very high stress levels. Regarding uncertainty, we find that its effects, while smaller than those of non-linear contagion, are nonetheless relevant and most important around levels of stress at which different parts of the system become unstable. Interestingly, losses can be amplified or mitigated with respect to the deterministic case depending on the specific level of stress considered. Finally, the interaction between both model components—non-linear contagion and uncertainty—alters the area where uncertainty matters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101226"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the optimal control of interbank contagion in the euro area banking system","authors":"Gábor Fukker, Christoffer Kok","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101225","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101225","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>In this paper we present a methodology of model-based calibration of additional capital needed in an interconnected financial system to minimize potential contagion losses. Building on ideas from </span>combinatorial optimization tailored to controlling contagion in case of complete information about an interbank network, we augment the model with three plausible types of fire sale mechanisms. We then demonstrate the power of the methodology on the euro area banking system based on a network of 373 banks. On the basis of an exogenous shock leading to defaults of some banks in the network, we find that the contagion losses and the policy authority’s ability to control them depend on the assumed fire sale mechanism and the fiscal budget constraint that may or may not restrain the policy authorities from infusing money to halt the contagion. The modelling framework could be used both as a crisis management tool to help inform decisions on capital/liquidity infusions in the context of resolutions and precautionary recapitalizations or as a crisis prevention tool to help calibrate capital buffer requirements to address systemic risks due to interconnectedness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101225"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Graeme Cokayne , Eddie Gerba , Andreas Kuchler , Rasmus Pank Roulund
{"title":"“Thank me later”: Why is (macro)prudence desirable?","authors":"Graeme Cokayne , Eddie Gerba , Andreas Kuchler , Rasmus Pank Roulund","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the social desirability of macroprudential measures, particularly those aimed at riskier home buyers. We examine the effectiveness of these measures against social costs, such as reduced access to the housing ladder for poorer households. Our analysis shows that the measures implemented so far have not limited access to credit or the housing markets. They have been effective in limiting the riskiest loans, minimizing negative equity episodes, reducing systemic risks by debilitating the house price-leverage spiral, and limiting the depths of contractions of a range of macro-financial variables. The welfare of households has also improved. Costs from these measures have been limited and have materialized through a rise in the age-income profile of first-time buyers, and somewhat more attenuated booms. Our results point to the conclusion that macroprudence is desirable when insulated from short-term interference and quick gains. The economy becomes more robust and even households in the lowest decile of the wealth distribution benefit from the general equilibrium effects of more stable financial provision.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101227"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139633336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xin Chang , Louis T.W. Cheng , Wing Chun Kwok , George Wong
{"title":"Stock price crash risk and firms’ operating leverage","authors":"Xin Chang , Louis T.W. Cheng , Wing Chun Kwok , George Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We extend Jin and Myers’s (2006) model to derive the relation between stock price crash risk and operating leverage (i.e., the fraction of fixed costs in total costs). The model predicts that (1) firms’ operating leverage decreases as stock price crash risk increases and (2) the negative effect of crash risk on operating leverage is more pronounced when firms are closer to the crash threshold or when managers face higher costs of stock price crashes. We empirically test the model predictions using a large sample of manufacturing firms in the US and find consistent results. Further analysis shows that higher levels of crash risk lead to a less sticky cost behavior. In addition, crash risk–driven operating deleveraging effectively reduces stock return volatility and enhances operating performance in subsequent years. Collectively, our findings reveal that crash-prone firms adopt a more flexible cost structure to delay stock price crashes and mitigate adverse outcomes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101219"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
John W. Goodell , Shaen Corbet , Yang (Greg) Hou , Yang Hu , Les Oxley
{"title":"Isolating defensive corporate ESG effects: Evidence from purely domestic anti-COVID-19 measures","authors":"John W. Goodell , Shaen Corbet , Yang (Greg) Hou , Yang Hu , Les Oxley","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Few studies investigate whether ESG mitigates the harmful effects of changes in firms’ external environments. We evidence that ESG mitigated the impact of COVID-19 work-from-home and workplace prescriptions amongst several other pandemic-related government regulatory interventions, even when controlling for firm size. In a novel approach, we apply scrutiny of firms to restrict our cross-national sample to only firms with no cross-border trade, that is, explicitly domestically focused operational processes irrespective of the endpoint of corporate sales, enhancing methodological robustness. Consequently, we isolate an ESG effect. Results indicate the existence of a premium during the onset of each analysed national pandemic experience, particularly pronounced for those corporations that had achieved more substantiative ESG-based preparation and development before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101220"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139581684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Weiping Li , Tingyu Li , Dequan Jiang , Xuezhi Zhang
{"title":"Bridging the information gap: How digitalization shapes stock price informativeness","authors":"Weiping Li , Tingyu Li , Dequan Jiang , Xuezhi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Digitalization is a crucial strategy for firms to gain a competitive advantage. This study utilizes data from Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2020 to examine how digitalization affects firms' stock price informativeness. Empirical results demonstrate that digitalization reduces stock price synchronicity and promotes firms' stock price informativeness. Moreover, digitalization improves stock price informativeness by enhancing investment efficiency and firm value, reducing information asymmetry, and alleviating agency costs. These findings suggest that effective digital strategies and capabilities constitute an important yet underappreciated resource that enables firms to generate value-relevant information and improve the information environment in emerging capital markets. Our study contributes new evidence on the financial market implications of digital transformation from a resource-based view perspective.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101217"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139456475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oğuz Kaan Karakoyun , Mustafa U. Karakaplan , Bilin Neyaptı
{"title":"Endogenous bank regulation and supervision: Long term implications","authors":"Oğuz Kaan Karakoyun , Mustafa U. Karakaplan , Bilin Neyaptı","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The role of bank regulation and supervision (RS) on financial stability and welfare has been subject to ongoing research, especially since the Great Recession<span>. RS is expected to help eliminate the adverse selection and moral hazard problems that are abundant in financial transactions. In this paper, we present a general equilibrium model that is augmented by either a bank regulatory and supervisory agent who chooses the level of RS by maximizing bank profits, or by a macroprudential agent who minimizes non-performing loans (NPL). We compare the long-term outcomes of these scenarios and show that minimizing NPL is feasible for a larger and economically more viable range of parameter values than the alternatives. Moreover, for a comparable set of parameter combinations, the optimal choice of RS that minimizes NPL leads to both higher levels of steady state income and lower interest spreads as compared to RS that maximizes bank profits.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101216"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139408740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Auditor certification and long-run performance of IPO stocks","authors":"Sudip Datta , Mark Gruskin , Mai Iskandar-Datta","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study establishes a significant positive relation between high quality auditors and long-run post-IPO equity performance. IPOs associated with high-ranked auditors benefit from superior information quality irrespective of underwriter rank, manifesting in significantly better post-IPO equity performance. The auditor certification effect is robust and persists longer than the underwriter certification effect. IPOs, regardless of the underwriter rank, benefit significantly from the auditor reputation effect. Further, the auditor certification effect is more pronounced: (a) when underwriter certification is weak (‘substitution effect’), and (b) in the presence of greater information asymmetry. VC backed IPOs perform significantly better; however, VC reputation has no effect, after controlling for auditor rank and underwriter certification. Our conclusions are reinforced by a battery of robustness checks, including the use of alternative methodologies to address endogeneity, audit quality proxies, performance metrics, model specifications, and validity tests.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101214"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139064791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Somayyeh Lotfi , Andreas Milidonis , Stavros A. Zenios
{"title":"Mispricing of debt expansion in the eurozone sovereign credit market","authors":"Somayyeh Lotfi , Andreas Milidonis , Stavros A. Zenios","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We find evidence consistent with risk mispricing in the eurozone sovereign credit market for crisis and non-crisis countries alike, using a novel variable of sovereign debt expansion (DE) that we construct. DE predicts increased default probability, but panel regressions from 2002 to 2017 show a negative association with risk premia, even when controlling for risk appetite and the known determinants of sovereign risk premia. As expected, the negative association was only briefly interrupted by the 2010 Deauville Summit, but it resumed by the onset of the 2011 eurozone crisis. The introduction of quantitative easing in 2015 mutes the negative association, raising the concern of what will happen once quantitative easing ends. Our finding is robust to several model specifications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101215"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139052795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}