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The impact of fintech lending on credit access for U.S. small businesses 金融科技贷款对美国小企业获得信贷的影响
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101290
Giulio Cornelli , Jon Frost , Leonardo Gambacorta , Julapa Jagtiani
{"title":"The impact of fintech lending on credit access for U.S. small businesses","authors":"Giulio Cornelli ,&nbsp;Jon Frost ,&nbsp;Leonardo Gambacorta ,&nbsp;Julapa Jagtiani","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Small business lending (SBL) plays an important role in funding productive investment and fostering local economic growth. Recently, nonbank lenders have gained market share in the SBL market in the United States, especially relative to community banks. Among nonbanks, fintech lenders have become particularly active, leveraging alternative data and complex modeling for their own internal credit scoring. We use proprietary loan-level data from two fintech SBL platforms (Funding Circle and LendingClub) to explore the characteristics of loans originated pre-pandemic (2016<img>2019). Our results show that these fintech SBL platforms lent relatively more in zip codes with higher unemployment rates and higher business bankruptcy filings. Moreover, fintech platforms’ internal credit scores were able to predict future loan performance more accurately than traditional credit scores, particularly in areas with high unemployment. Using Y-14 M loan-level bank data, we compare fintech SBL with traditional bank business cards in terms of credit access and interest rates. Overall, while not all fintech firms follow the same approach, we find that fintech lenders could help close the credit gap, allowing small businesses that were less likely to receive credit through traditional lenders to access credit and potentially at lower cost.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101290"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141324987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do machine learning and non-traditional data affect credit scoring? New evidence from a Chinese fintech firm 机器学习和非传统数据如何影响信用评分？来自一家中国金融科技公司的新证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101284
Leonardo Gambacorta , Yiping Huang , Han Qiu , Jingyi Wang
{"title":"How do machine learning and non-traditional data affect credit scoring? New evidence from a Chinese fintech firm","authors":"Leonardo Gambacorta ,&nbsp;Yiping Huang ,&nbsp;Han Qiu ,&nbsp;Jingyi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper compares the predictive power of credit scoring models based on machine learning techniques with that of traditional loss and default models. Using proprietary transaction-level data from a leading fintech company in China, we test the performance of different models to predict losses and defaults both in normal times and when the economy is subject to a shock. In particular, we analyse the case of an (exogenous) change in regulation policy on shadow banking in China that caused credit conditions to deteriorate. We find that the model based on machine learning and non-traditional data is better able to predict losses and defaults than traditional models in the presence of a negative shock to the aggregate credit supply. This result reflects a higher capacity of non-traditional data to capture relevant borrower characteristics and of machine learning techniques to better mine the non-linear relationship between variables in a period of stress.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101284"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141291059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are ICOs the best? A comparison of different fundraising models in blockchain-based fundraising ICO 是最好的吗？基于区块链的不同筹资模式比较
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101288
Yan Sun, Sung-Byung Yang
{"title":"Are ICOs the best? A comparison of different fundraising models in blockchain-based fundraising","authors":"Yan Sun,&nbsp;Sung-Byung Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Blockchain is a ground-breaking technology with potential applications in fundraising. In this study, we analyze the blockchain-based fundraising data from 2019 to 2021 to investigate the differences between various fundraising models (i.e., ICO, IEO, IDO, and MIX). More specifically, in Study 1, we conduct ANCOVA and ANOVA to examine differences in fundraising success and token performance after listing between different fundraising models. In Study 2, we first explore the factors that affect fundraising success and token performance, and then verify whether the impact of these factors varies between fundraising models. The findings of our research have implications for both firms and investors, assisting firms in selecting the most effective fundraising models and aiding investors in identifying tokens with the greatest potential.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101288"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141313976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital payments and bank competition 数字支付与银行竞争
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101287
Marianne Verdier
{"title":"Digital payments and bank competition","authors":"Marianne Verdier","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article examines how competition between banks and a digital PSP impacts the lending rate and the consumers’ use of payment instruments. The digital PSP offers a digital wallet and payment services, but does not offer credit. In contrast, banks invest their deposits in lending activities, which implies that they may incur some costs of adjusting their liquidity needs when consumers make payments. I show that the adoption of the digital wallet for payments may sometimes increase the volume of payments by bank deposit transfers and the lending rate. This results from banks’ trade-off between lowering their costs of liquidity when consumers pay from their digital wallet and reducing the revenues they receive from bank transfer fees.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101287"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141242098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A simple model of a central bank digital currency 中央银行数字货币的简单模型
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101282
Bineet Mishra , Eswar Prasad
{"title":"A simple model of a central bank digital currency","authors":"Bineet Mishra ,&nbsp;Eswar Prasad","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a general equilibrium model that highlights the trade-offs between physical and digital forms of retail central bank money. The key differences between cash and central bank digital currency (CBDC) include transaction efficiency, possibilities for tax evasion, and, potentially, nominal rates of return. We establish conditions under which cash and CBDC can co-exist and show how government policies can influence relative holdings of cash, CBDC, and other assets. We illustrate how a CBDC can facilitate negative nominal interest rates and helicopter drops, and also how a CBDC can be structured to prevent capital flight from other assets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101282"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141314751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from tokenized voting in MakerDAO polls 去中心化金融中的去中心化幻觉：MakerDAO 投票中代币化投票的证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101286
Xiaotong Sun , Charalampos Stasinakis , Georgios Sermpinis
{"title":"Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from tokenized voting in MakerDAO polls","authors":"Xiaotong Sun ,&nbsp;Charalampos Stasinakis ,&nbsp;Georgios Sermpinis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) is very popular in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications as it provides a decentralized governance solution through blockchain. We analyze the governance characteristics in the Maker protocol, its stablecoin DAI and its governance token Maker (MKR). To achieve that, we establish several measurements of centralized governance. Our empirical analysis investigates the effect of centralized governance over a series of factors related to MKR and DAI, such as financial, network and Twitter sentiment indicators. Our results show that governance centralization influences the Maker protocol and that the distribution of voting power matters. The main implication of this study is that centralized governance in MakerDAO very much exists, while DeFi investors face a trade-off between decentralization and performance of a DeFi protocol. This further contributes to the contemporary debate over whether DeFi can be truly decentralized.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101286"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141286541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system CBDC 对依赖存款的银行系统的影响
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101283
Steffen Vollmar, Fabian Wening
{"title":"The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system","authors":"Steffen Vollmar,&nbsp;Fabian Wening","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine implications of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for banks using business models particularly dependent on customer deposits. Employing unique customer data hand-collected from German savings and cooperative banks, we generate conversion rates for deposits into a CBDC. Even at moderate conversion rates, most banks would have experienced funding problems and lost profits if a CBDC had been introduced in most years from 2000 onward. Our results are relevant for commercial banks, contributing to better assessments of the impact of CBDCs on liquidity and profitability and help central banks to identify implementation costs for banks within historical and hypothetical interest rate environments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101283"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000688/pdfft?md5=0041eb95650eeeace2d18af10034161e&pid=1-s2.0-S1572308924000688-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141242099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Volatile safe-haven asset: Evidence from Bitcoin 波动性避险资产：比特币的证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101285
James Yae , George Zhe Tian
{"title":"Volatile safe-haven asset: Evidence from Bitcoin","authors":"James Yae ,&nbsp;George Zhe Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite high volatility, Bitcoin is known to offer diversification benefits through its relatively low correlation with stock markets. Unlike traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin prices strongly respond to time-varying correlations and diversification benefits. We find that a decrease (an increase) in correlation between Bitcoin and S&amp;P500 index returns strongly predicts higher (lower) Bitcoin returns the next day. Under the classical mean–variance framework, we develop a stylized model of Bitcoin prices utilizing extreme disagreement among heterogeneous Bitcoin investors. When our model is calibrated to the observed predictability of Bitcoin returns, the model simultaneously explains the lack of predictability in traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and long-term treasuries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101285"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141313525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do private digital currencies affect government policy? 私人数字货币如何影响政府政策？
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101281
Max Raskin , Fahad Saleh , David Yermack
{"title":"How do private digital currencies affect government policy?","authors":"Max Raskin ,&nbsp;Fahad Saleh ,&nbsp;David Yermack","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We provide a systematic classification and evaluation of the different types of digital currencies. We express skepticism regarding centralized digital currencies and focus our economic analysis on private digital currencies. We specifically highlight the potential for private digital currencies to improve welfare within an emerging market with a selfish government. In that setting, we demonstrate that a private digital currency not only improves citizen welfare but also encourages local investment and enhances government welfare. The fact that a private digital currency enhances government welfare implies a permissive regulatory policy which enables citizens to realize the previously referenced welfare gains.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101281"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141291060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Accounting for climate transition risk in banks’ capital requirements 银行资本要求中的气候转型风险核算
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101269
Lucia Alessi, Erica Francesca Di Girolamo, Andrea Pagano, Marco Petracco Giudici
{"title":"Accounting for climate transition risk in banks’ capital requirements","authors":"Lucia Alessi,&nbsp;Erica Francesca Di Girolamo,&nbsp;Andrea Pagano,&nbsp;Marco Petracco Giudici","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of climate transition risk on banks’ balance sheets in a climate-stress-testing (i.e. short-run) framework. We show that a moderate to high transition risk increases overall bank losses only relatively modestly if the baseline is a stressed macroeconomic scenario. However, even in a benign macroeconomic scenario, if high-carbon assets are at least 13% riskier than comparable assets a fire sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained shock into a systemic crisis, resulting in significant losses for the EU banking sector. We show that transition risks are concentrated, and find that an additional capital buffer of 0.9% risk-weighted assets on average would be sufficient to protect the system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"73 ","pages":"Article 101269"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000548/pdfft?md5=f74e9336790ff893b7cde36c84715a1d&pid=1-s2.0-S1572308924000548-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141291061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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