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Climate information disclosure quality and systemic risk in the U.S. banking industry 美国银行业气候信息披露质量与系统性风险
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101420
Zinan Hu, Sumuya Borjigin
{"title":"Climate information disclosure quality and systemic risk in the U.S. banking industry","authors":"Zinan Hu,&nbsp;Sumuya Borjigin","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing climate information disclosure quality in the banking sector improves transparency, reduces information asymmetry, and strengthens financial stability. We explore the effect of high-quality climate information disclosures, extracted from 271 U.S. banks’ annual reports from 2015 to 2024, on systemic risk. We use the deep learning model <span><math><mrow><mtext>C</mtext><mtext>LIMATE</mtext><mtext>B</mtext><mtext>ERT</mtext></mrow></math></span> to identify climate-related risk, neutral, and opportunity texts in U.S.-listed banks’ annual reports, focusing on their specificity. Based on these texts, and banks’ actual transition and physical risks, we construct a climate information disclosure quality index. This index includes non-symbolic and non-selective disclosures, measuring the transparency of banks’ climate disclosures. We find that improved climate disclosure quality reduces information asymmetry, mitigates market risk, and weakens systemic risk. Endogeneity tests and robustness checks support the findings. Increased investor attention amplifies the positive impact of climate disclosures. Finally, for financially unhealthy banks, the effect of enhanced disclosure quality is more significant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101420"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling the procyclical impact of monetary policy on bank leverage: A stochastic macroprudential approach 货币政策对银行杠杆的顺周期影响建模：一种随机宏观审慎方法
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101421
Juan F. Rendón , Lina M. Cortés , Javier Perote
{"title":"Modeling the procyclical impact of monetary policy on bank leverage: A stochastic macroprudential approach","authors":"Juan F. Rendón ,&nbsp;Lina M. Cortés ,&nbsp;Javier Perote","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a methodology for analyzing procyclical systemic risk arising from joint monetary and prudential policy decisions. We analyze the impact of different scenarios of the monetary policy interest rate on the leverage ratio of US commercial banks. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Semi-nonparametric model and bivariate spectral analysis are applied to model the dynamics among the variables. The results indicate that high and low interest rates increase leverage while medium rates reduce it. The importance of considering asymmetries and heavy tails of probability distributions in stress tests and the dynamics of the correlation between variables is highlighted when assessing financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101421"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144167669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rise of NBFIs and the global structural change in the transmission of market shocks 非金融机构的崛起与全球市场冲击传导的结构性变化
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101419
Yoshihiko Hogen , Yoshiyasu Kasai , Yuji Shinozaki
{"title":"Rise of NBFIs and the global structural change in the transmission of market shocks","authors":"Yoshihiko Hogen ,&nbsp;Yoshiyasu Kasai ,&nbsp;Yuji Shinozaki","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fire-sale (FS) vulnerabilities, including those associated with nonbank financial intermediaries, are often measured using FS models. While existing studies use granular data to analyze these dynamics, the scope tends to focuses on a particular jurisdiction, leaving out the cross-jurisdictional dimension. This paper uses flow of funds data from Japan, the United States, and the Euro area to measure cross-border spillovers of market shocks (interlinkage effect) in the global financial system using a standard FS model. We find that the interlinkage effect has substantially increased at the global level since the global financial crisis, suggesting a global structural change in the transmission of market shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101419"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the origin of green finance policies 论绿色金融政策的起源
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101418
T.F. Cojoianu , D. French , A.G.F. Hoepner , L. Sheenan , A. Vu
{"title":"On the origin of green finance policies","authors":"T.F. Cojoianu ,&nbsp;D. French ,&nbsp;A.G.F. Hoepner ,&nbsp;L. Sheenan ,&nbsp;A. Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the rising number of green finance policies, the socioeconomic determinants shaping them remain largely unexamined. Drawing from the literature analysing the relationship between regulation, market development and institutional economics, we contend that green finance policy adoption is driven by both market-based and institutional factors. Using a survival analysis approach to understand the levers influencing green finance policy adoption across 188 countries from 2000 to 2019, we find that exposure to the fossil fuel industry predominantly drives the initial issuance of green finance policies. The positive effect of fossil fuel commercial financing on the adoption of green finance policies exists in countries with high and medium climate change awareness levels. Meanwhile, in countries with a low climate change awareness level, fossil fuel government subsidies drive green finance policy adoption. Our study also highlights the role of the financial industry as one of the key actors in the policy cycle of green finance policies via two pathways: (i) affecting financial stability through financing oil and gas companies on primary financial markets and (ii) developing a market for sustainable finance products.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"79 ","pages":"Article 101418"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144167668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do EU banks’ funding costs respond to the CRD IV? An assessment based on the banking union directives database 欧盟银行的融资成本如何应对CRD IV？基于银行业联盟指令数据库的评估
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101416
Thomas Krause , Eleonora Sfrappini , Lena Tonzer , Cristina Zgherea
{"title":"How do EU banks’ funding costs respond to the CRD IV? An assessment based on the banking union directives database","authors":"Thomas Krause ,&nbsp;Eleonora Sfrappini ,&nbsp;Lena Tonzer ,&nbsp;Cristina Zgherea","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The establishment of the European Banking Union constitutes a major change in the regulatory framework of the banking system. Main parts are implemented via directives that show staggered transposition timing across EU member states. Based on the newly compiled Banking Union Directives Database, we assess how banks’ funding costs responded to the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). We find evidence of a weak increase in funding costs that results from an increase in cost of equity which is mostly offset by a decline in cost of debt. The diverging trends stem from countries with an ex-ante lower regulatory capital stringency and an ex-post quicker activation of capital buffers, which is in line with banks’ short-run adjustment needs but longer-run benefits from increased financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101416"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion 小额银行存款比大额银行存款更划算吗？传染与普惠金融的三个事件研究
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101417
Dante B. Canlas , Johnny Noe E. Ravalo , Eli M. Remolona
{"title":"Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion","authors":"Dante B. Canlas ,&nbsp;Johnny Noe E. Ravalo ,&nbsp;Eli M. Remolona","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How susceptible to contagion are bank deposits associated with financial inclusion? To assess this susceptibility, we analyze the behavior of deposits around three significant events of bank failure in the Philippines. We conduct the event studies with the advantage of a unique dataset that disaggregates deposits by size at the town level. We show that both small and large deposits are withdrawn up to 4–5 quarters before the bank’s closure. We take advantage of this distinction between small and large deposits to test for contagion. Applying difference-in-difference regressions, we find evidence of contagion: the closure of a large bank leads to withdrawals at banks in neighboring towns by depositors both large and small. This is the case for two of the three events, and when the data is taken collectively. That there is a market for information affects deposit insurance as a safety net for depositors and as a disciplining tool for banks. There are also liquidity considerations that banks need to consider. In any case, we consistently find the behavior of small depositors to be no different from that of large depositors. Hence, if financial inclusion is about access to bank deposits, it is not likely to heighten systemic risks nor mitigate them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101417"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Idiosyncratic contagion between ETFs and stocks: A high dimensional network perspective etf与股票之间的特质传染：一个高维网络视角
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101415
Yu Wang, Yiguo Sun
{"title":"Idiosyncratic contagion between ETFs and stocks: A high dimensional network perspective","authors":"Yu Wang,&nbsp;Yiguo Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the return spillovers between Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and stocks. While traditional approaches focus on proportional relationships between ETFs and their underlying assets, we develop a high-dimensional network framework that captures spillover effects between any ETF-stock pair, regardless of their compositional relationship. By separating idiosyncratic and systematic risks, we investigate potential drivers of contagion. We document substantial heterogeneity in spillover patterns across sectors, which is previously unaddressed in the literature. Sectors such as Utilities and Real Estate exhibit robust spillovers to both their component stocks and assets in other sectors. Conversely, in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary and Finance, cross-sector influences dominate intra-sector ETF-constituent linkages. Our results also highlight that during periods of high market volatility, sources of idiosyncratic contagion become more diverse, suggesting the need for broader market surveillance beyond the few most influential ETFs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101415"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk 宏观审慎政策与主权风险的悖论
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411
António Afonso, André Teixeira
{"title":"The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk","authors":"António Afonso,&nbsp;André Teixeira","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on sovereign risk. As long as macroprudential policy improves financial stability, it lowers sovereign risk and enables governments to increase spending without raising taxes. Consequently, countries with tighter macroprudential policies have lower primary budget balances and accumulate government debt over time. However, this effect diminishes or reverses when there is excessive regulation or high levels of debt. These findings are somewhat paradoxical: macroprudential policy may lower private debt, while increasing public debt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101411"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143890688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dating housing booms fueled by credit: A Markov switching approach 信贷推动的房地产繁荣的年代：马尔可夫转换方法
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101412
Carlos Cañizares Martínez
{"title":"Dating housing booms fueled by credit: A Markov switching approach","authors":"Carlos Cañizares Martínez","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to empirically identify the state of the US housing market. I do so by estimating a Markov switching model of housing prices, in which mortgage debt affects house prices nonlinearly and drives state transition probabilities. Second, I compute a state-contingent housing risk measure fed with the probability of being in each state. Finally, I show that such risk measure contains early warning information in a forecasting exercise to predict the charge-off rates of real estate residential loans and a financial stress index. The significance of this study is that it informs economic agents and policymakers about the state of the housing market mechanically.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101412"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital currency and banking-sector stability 数字货币和银行业稳定
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101414
William Chen , Gregory Phelan
{"title":"Digital currency and banking-sector stability","authors":"William Chen ,&nbsp;Gregory Phelan","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce digital currency into a macro model with a banking sector in which financial frictions generate endogenous systemic risk and instability. In the model, digital currency is fully integrated into the financial system. Stablecoin issuance significantly increases the probability of a banking-sector crisis because it depresses bank deposit spreads, particularly during crises, which limits banks’ ability to recapitalize following losses. While banking-sector stability suffers, household welfare can still improve significantly. Financial frictions nevertheless limit the potential benefits of digital currencies. The optimal level of digital currency could be below what would be issued in a competitive environment. In contrast to stablecoins, which are backed by debt, tokenized deposits backed by traditional bank assets improve welfare without harming financial stability. The scope for welfare gains from stablecoins or tokenized deposits depends on how households value the liquidity services of digital currency relative to traditional deposits and on the cost of issuing stablecoins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101414"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143876708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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