Journal of Financial Stability最新文献_第2页

Sectoral credit allocation and systemic risk

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101363

Alin Marius Andrieş , Steven Ongena , Nicu Sprincean

{"title":"Sectoral credit allocation and systemic risk","authors":"Alin Marius Andrieş , Steven Ongena , Nicu Sprincean","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101363","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101363","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the association between country-level sectoral credit dynamics and bank-level systemic risk. Contrary to most studies that only delve into broad-based credit development, we focus on sectoral credit allocation, specifically to households versus firms, and to the tradable versus non-tradable sector. Based on a global sample of 417 banks across 46 countries over the period 2000–2014, we find that lending to households and corporates in the non-tradable sector is positively associated with system-wide distress. Conversely, credit granted to corporations and to the tradable sector negatively correlates with banks’ systemic behavior. Sub-sample analysis shows that risks from household lending are transmitted through small banks, whereas non-tradable lending is transmitted through large banks. Moreover, banks located in emerging market and developing economies exhibit enhanced systemic behavior against the backdrop of higher household and tradable credit growth, whereas credit to non-tradable sector firms tends to increase systemic fragility of banks in advanced economies. By the same token, the results differ for the pre-crisis and crisis/post-crisis periods, with the full sample findings driven by the crisis/post-crisis timespan. The findings emphasize critical policy implications considering sectoral heterogeneity, bank size, country of incorporation of banks, and periods of financial tranquillity/instability. Authorities can intervene in the most systemic economic sectors and limit the accumulation of “bad credit” and preserve systemic resilience, while still benefiting from the positive impact of “good credit” on growth and financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101363"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robust-less-fragile: Tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101352

Gianluca Pallante , Mattia Guerini , Mauro Napoletano , Andrea Roventini

{"title":"Robust-less-fragile: Tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model","authors":"Gianluca Pallante , Mattia Guerini , Mauro Napoletano , Andrea Roventini","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We extend the <em>Schumpeter meeting Keynes</em> (K+S) agent-based model by introducing an evolving interbank network in the money market. Banks are exposed to counterparty risk and evaluate interbank positions using a network valuation (NEVA) clearing mechanism, which ensures systemic risk minimization with minimal assumptions on banks’ behavior. The model can replicate several stylized facts about the topology of the interbank network and the dynamics of banks’ balance sheets. The model encompasses financial contagion and systemic risk, allowing us to study the interactions between micro- and macro-prudential policies. Our results suggest that the introduction of a micro-prudential regulation also accounting for the network structure can reduce the incidence of systemic risk events. We also find that, in presence of a two-pillar regulatory framework – grounded on a <em>Basel III macro-prudential</em> regulation and a <em>NEVA-based micro-prudential</em> one –, there is no trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic performance. This points towards the possibility of designing a regulatory framework able to achieve financial stability without overly stringent capital requirements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101352"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Institutional ownership and bank failure

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101366

Elyas Elyasiani , Jingyi Jia

{"title":"Institutional ownership and bank failure","authors":"Elyas Elyasiani , Jingyi Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the relationship between bank failure and dedicated institutional ownership (hereafter IO) employing a logit model. We focus on dedicated institutional investors (hereafter IIs) as defined by Bushee (2001) and Bushee and NOE (2000) because they are stable shareholders and have large investments in the investee companies. Four results are obtained. First, based on the instrumental variable approach, a greater proportion of dedicated IO is associated with reduced probability of bank failure. This result is robust to the propensity score matching technique. The rationale is that dedicated IIs collect information on the investee banks by holding stable and concentrated positions in these banks, monitor them, and reduce their ownership in cases of trouble earlier than other IIs do. This effect has a larger magnitude in banks with greater organizational complexity and larger size. Second, after controlling for the sell herding effect of other IIs, we find that the dedicated IO proportion still has a negative and significant coefficient, indicating that dedicated IIs trade on fundamental information rather than herding with other IIs. Third, three potential channels of collecting information, (i) placing representatives on the board as directors, (ii) greater capacity in analyzing financial statements through cross-ownership in other banks, and (iii) higher monitoring incentive due to more stable and concentrated ownership, are investigated. We find evidence in favor of the effect of cross-ownership in the banking industry, ownership stability and concentration. Fourth, the ownership of dedicated IIs is significantly larger in banks acquired by other banks than those filing for Chapter 7 liquidation, ascribing a constructive role for dedicated IIs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101366"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143144324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financial subsidies, female employment, and plant performance — Evidence from a quasi-experiment

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101341

Raffi E. García , Ricardo A. López Rago

{"title":"Financial subsidies, female employment, and plant performance — Evidence from a quasi-experiment","authors":"Raffi E. García , Ricardo A. López Rago","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits changes in financial subsidy programs to investigate their effect on female employment and firm performance. The identification strategy uses a quasi-experiment from a government policy change that eliminated financial support for exporting plants in the Chilean manufacturing industry. The difference-in-differences methodology shows that the policy change increased the share of total female employment by 3.3%, driven mainly by an increase of female workers in blue-collar occupations. In comparison, male labor experienced a drop of 4.4% in white-collar occupations in the treated plants relative to those in the control group. Plant total factor productivity (TFP) decreased due to the policy change, but both total gross output and sales rose approximately 7% on average. The paper explores two possible mechanisms to explain these findings: the technology adoption channel and changes in the gender composition of labor in the presence of a gender pay gap. The findings are consistent with the international trade and corporate finance literature on firm behavior under high market fixed and sunk costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101341"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Banking supervisory architecture and sovereign risk

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101365

Pedro J. Cuadros-Solas , Carlos Salvador , Nuria Suárez

引用次数: 0

Regulatory uncertainty and TARP

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101367

Yupeng Lin , Xin Liu , Anand Srinivasan

引用次数: 0

Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk-taking?

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360

Selim Elekdag , Drilona Emrullahu , Sami Ben Naceur

{"title":"Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk-taking?","authors":"Selim Elekdag , Drilona Emrullahu , Sami Ben Naceur","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk-taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, the paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk-taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis). Using a curated database covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk-taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship. Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk-taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature, which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101360"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do portfolio companies learn from their peers? Evidence from venture capital funding

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101373

Salim Chahine , Mai Daher

引用次数: 0

Bubbles, banking and monetary policy

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101362

Jae Hun Shim

引用次数: 0

Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors

IF 6.1 2区经济学

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372

Yilin Chen , Chentong Sun , Xu Zhang

{"title":"Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors","authors":"Yilin Chen , Chentong Sun , Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures China's financial resilience from the perspective of external risk shocks and analyzes its influencing factors for forecasting. First, we introduce an innovative financial resilience model comprising three submodels: the dynamic factor model, the TVP-VAR model, and a resilience characteristic measurement model that captures resistance and recoverability through absorption intensity and absorption duration. The results show a clear inverse relationship between absorption intensity and absorption duration, with resilience fluctuations exhibiting distinct phase characteristics. Notably, intervals of low resilience often correspond to specific risk events. Second, we apply the Lasso-logistic model for recursive estimation and forecasting financial resilience, while comparing its performance to that of the Logistic regression model. The results indicate that the Lasso-logistic model achieves, on average, a 10 % higher forecasting accuracy than the Logistic model does. Among the most important features identified by the model are macroeconomic and public expectation variables. The analysis shows that the stability of economic fundamentals and market participants' confidence in the future play pivotal roles in strengthening financial resilience and ensuring the stability of the financial system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101372"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0