宏观审慎政策与主权风险的悖论

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411

António Afonso, André Teixeira

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究宏观审慎政策对主权风险的影响。只要宏观审慎政策能改善金融稳定，就能降低主权风险，使政府能够在不增税的情况下增加支出。因此，宏观审慎政策收紧的国家基本预算余额较低，政府债务随着时间的推移而不断累积。然而，当监管过度或债务水平过高时，这种影响就会减弱或逆转。这些发现有些自相矛盾：宏观审慎政策可能会降低私人债务，同时增加公共债务。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on sovereign risk. As long as macroprudential policy improves financial stability, it lowers sovereign risk and enables governments to increase spending without raising taxes. Consequently, countries with tighter macroprudential policies have lower primary budget balances and accumulate government debt over time. However, this effect diminishes or reverses when there is excessive regulation or high levels of debt. These findings are somewhat paradoxical: macroprudential policy may lower private debt, while increasing public debt.

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来源期刊

Journal of Financial Stability Multiple-

CiteScore

7.70

自引率

9.30%

发文量

审稿时长

34 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Financial Stability provides an international forum for rigorous theoretical and empirical macro and micro economic and financial analysis of the causes, management, resolution and preventions of financial crises, including banking, securities market, payments and currency crises. The primary focus is on applied research that would be useful in affecting public policy with respect to financial stability. Thus, the Journal seeks to promote interaction among researchers, policy-makers and practitioners to identify potential risks to financial stability and develop means for preventing, mitigating or managing these risks both within and across countries.