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Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: The real (estate) story 大萧条时期商业银行的倒闭：房地产的故事
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101492
Adonis Antoniades
{"title":"Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: The real (estate) story","authors":"Adonis Antoniades","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the run-up to the Great Recession, commercial banks used their balance sheets to fund an expansion in real estate to commercial borrowers. The subsequent bank failures owed more to pre-crisis exposure to commercial real estate credit than to household mortgages or to liquidity risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101492"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145685026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Whistleblowers and financial fraud 举报人和金融欺诈
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101494
Oz Shy
{"title":"Whistleblowers and financial fraud","authors":"Oz Shy","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Whistleblowers who report financial crimes are treated differently than whistleblowers in other sectors. This is because of the potential for partial recovery of the loss caused by financial fraud. The paper shows that the optimal whistleblower reward is a fraction of the amount that is recovered from fraud loss, which is capped at the level that can no longer attract additional whistleblowers. The paper also analyzes how rewards to whistleblowers affect heterogeneous potential fraudsters’ decision to commit fraud and why additional penalties in the form of monetary fines and/or jail time are needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"82 ","pages":"Article 101494"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial contagion within the interbank network 银行间网络内的金融传染
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101449
Christina D. Mikropoulou , Angelos T. Vouldis
{"title":"Financial contagion within the interbank network","authors":"Christina D. Mikropoulou ,&nbsp;Angelos T. Vouldis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The analysis of contagion in financial networks has primarily focused on transmission channels operating through direct linkages. This paper develops an agent-based model of financial contagion in the interbank market that features both direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. We conduct simulations on actual interbank bilateral exposures, constructed manually from a confidential supervisory dataset reported by the largest euro area banks. The model is used to investigate and quantify the relative contributions of direct and indirect channels. We find that while the impact of direct contagion increases gradually with the shock intensity, the effect of indirect contagion is subject to threshold effects and can increase abruptly when the threshold is exceeded. In addition, the risk posed by indirect contagion has a higher upper bound compared to direct contagion. Finally, we find that in terms of overall impact, the shocks to the value of sovereign debt and non-bank financial institutions represent the most significant risk to the functioning of the interbank market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101449"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach 一个真正稳定的稳定币：一种投资组合优化方法
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101458
Klaus Grobys , Juha-Pekka Junttila , James W. Kolari
{"title":"A stablecoin that’s actually stable: A portfolio optimization approach","authors":"Klaus Grobys ,&nbsp;Juha-Pekka Junttila ,&nbsp;James W. Kolari","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stablecoins seek to address the high price fluctuations of unbacked cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether. However, recent studies as well as the collapse of stablecoin USTC (Terra) cast doubt on the stability of stablecoins. Using well-known Markowitz portfolio optimization methods, we combine five leading stablecoins into a global minimum variance portfolio that represents a stable aggregate stablecoin (SAS). We find that SAS is much more stable than its constituent stablecoins. Also, in a stress test adding USTC to the portfolio, SAS remains stable with a narrow price range over time. Importantly, the construction of SAS using modern diversification methods has practical implications for the ongoing development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101458"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systemic risk in centralised interbank networks 集中式银行间网络的系统性风险
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101471
Mario Eboli
{"title":"Systemic risk in centralised interbank networks","authors":"Mario Eboli","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101471","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, I investigate the relationship between centralisation and systemic resilience in two-tiered interbank networks. Using flow network theory, I characterise the systemic contagion thresholds of stylised Core–Periphery (CP) and Star-Core–Periphery (SCP) networks, focusing on two fundamental contagion channels: common exposures and direct balance-sheet default contagion. Both network typologies are benchmarked against the maximally centralised star networks. The results demonstrate that centralisation when embedded within a modular two-tiered structure, enhances systemic resilience against shocks by reducing aggregate interbank exposures and constraining the spread of contagion across regions of the network. However, this stability comes at a cost. The obtained results highlight a fundamental trade-off between efficiency and risk concentration posed by the centralisation of interbank networks. While the centralisation of interbank exposures facilitates more efficient liquidity reallocations among banks and attenuates the spread of decentralised shocks, it simultaneously amplifies the vulnerability of the network to distress at the hub nodes. Indeed, the two-tiered modular structure of CP and SCP appears particularly exposed to the risk of systemic crises if all hub nodes, i.e. all banks in the core, suffer an exogenous solvency shock. The consequent policy implications for real-world core–periphery networks underscore the importance of reducing the likelihood of common shocks to core banks penalising them for holding overlapping and correlated portfolios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101471"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate lobbying and US federal grants: Information in exchange for compensation 企业游说和美国联邦拨款：用信息换取报酬
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101473
Rodrigo Londoño van Rutten
{"title":"Corporate lobbying and US federal grants: Information in exchange for compensation","authors":"Rodrigo Londoño van Rutten","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effect of firms’ lobbying activities on US federal grants. My model indicates that firms lobbying the granting agency during the grant allocation process have 7.04 times higher odds of getting a federal award. The main results are robust across lobbying measures and account for endogeneity concerns by employing instrumental variables and propensity score matching strategies. I also observe that federal grants are more responsive to lobbying expenditures to the granting agency when a firm’s information is more opaque. In addition, I find that firms receiving more federal grants tend to have lower costs of debt and higher CEO compensation without being able to show higher firm performance. Overall, these results appear consistent with the informational lobbying theory at the regulator level and self-serving behavior at the management level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101473"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CEO-employee pay disparity, risk-taking incentives, and financial reporting choices ceo与员工薪酬差距、冒险激励和财务报告选择
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101476
Han Dai , Dahlia Robinson , Yi Shen
{"title":"CEO-employee pay disparity, risk-taking incentives, and financial reporting choices","authors":"Han Dai ,&nbsp;Dahlia Robinson ,&nbsp;Yi Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Section 953b of the Dodd-Frank Act mandates the disclosure of CEO-employee pay ratios for public companies beginning in fiscal year 2017. Using hand-collected data on CEO-employee pay ratios, we investigate the association between CEO-employee pay disparity and risk-taking behaviors at both the executive and firm levels. We find that higher pay ratios are associated with greater CEO risk-taking incentives, less conservative financial reporting, more frequent merger and acquisition activities, and marginally higher risk disclosure on 10-K filings. Robustness tests and heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects in firms with weaker governance, lower transparency, male CEOs, and less R&amp;D-intensive environments. We also show that the SEC’s 2017 mandatory pay ratio disclosure rule significantly reduced CEO Vega, suggesting that transparency may constrain CEO’s risk-taking incentives. Our findings highlight the behavioral implications of internal pay inequality and provide important insights into how compensation structure shapes executive incentives and corporate decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101476"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intelligent financial system: How AI is transforming finance 智能金融系统：人工智能如何改变金融
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101472
I. Aldasoro , L. Gambacorta , A. Korinek , V. Shreeti , M. Stein
{"title":"Intelligent financial system: How AI is transforming finance","authors":"I. Aldasoro ,&nbsp;L. Gambacorta ,&nbsp;A. Korinek ,&nbsp;V. Shreeti ,&nbsp;M. Stein","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101472","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the core of the financial system is the processing and aggregation of vast amounts of information into price signals that coordinate participants in the economy. Throughout history, advances in information processing, from simple book-keeping to artificial intelligence (AI), have transformed the financial sector. We use this framing to analyze how generative AI (GenAI), emerging AI agents and, more speculatively, artificial general intelligence will impact finance. We focus on four functions of the financial system: financial intermediation, insurance, asset management, and payments. We also assess the implications of advances in AI for financial stability and prudential policy. Moreover, we investigate potential spillover effects of AI on the real economy, examining both an optimistic and a disruptive AI scenario. To address the transformative impact of advances in AI on the financial system, we propose a framework for upgrading financial regulation based on well-established general principles for AI governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101472"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real effects of bank shocks 银行冲击的真实影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101475
Vivek Sharma
{"title":"Real effects of bank shocks","authors":"Vivek Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how bank-firm lending relationships shape the macroeconomic effects of banking sector shocks. I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which collateral-constrained entrepreneurs borrow from banks through endogenously persistent credit relationships, modeled using a deep habits in banking framework. A negative repayment shock to bank loans triggers a sharp rise in credit spread and a contraction in bank lending and investment. However, the persistence embedded in credit relationships accelerates recovery – as spread normalizes, credit and output rebound. In contrast, when lending relationships are absent, the same shock generates a milder initial downturn but a more prolonged slowdown, as high spread persists and credit remains depressed. These findings highlight a fundamental trade-off in financial crises – relationship lending amplifies short-run effects but stabilizes recovery. The results underscore the importance of preserving bank-firm ties during financial shocks – through potential mechanisms such as credit guarantees, liquidity provision, or regulatory flexibility – as a means to support faster post-crisis normalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101475"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unpacking the crisis: Impact of COVID-19 on global equity flows 解读危机：COVID-19对全球股权流动的影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101479
Zhisheng Li , Bingxuan Lin , Zhouyi Liu , H. Zafer Yüksel
{"title":"Unpacking the crisis: Impact of COVID-19 on global equity flows","authors":"Zhisheng Li ,&nbsp;Bingxuan Lin ,&nbsp;Zhouyi Liu ,&nbsp;H. Zafer Yüksel","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected international equity flows through two different channels: a direct channel, capturing the real economic disruptions caused by rising infection rates, and an indirect channel, reflecting pandemic-related panic and uncertainty amplified by media coverage. Using high-frequency country/regional-level data for 66 economies—26 advanced and 40 emerging economies—between January 2020 and December 2022, we disentangle and quantify these two effects. Compared to the direct effect of pandemic, we show that the indirect panic-driven effect is stronger, and not simply a reflection of pandemic severity. The negative impact of panic on equity flows is more pronounced in the early months of 2020, and is partially offset by government interventions—particularly in advanced economies—while similar measures in emerging markets have limited impact. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between real economic shocks and sentiment-driven dynamics of the pandemic, and offer practical insights for policymakers in preparing for future crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 101479"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145578843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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