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Regulatory uncertainty and TARP
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101367
Yupeng Lin , Xin Liu , Anand Srinivasan
{"title":"Regulatory uncertainty and TARP","authors":"Yupeng Lin ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Anand Srinivasan","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) as a laboratory, this paper examines the impacts of bank bailouts on bank-dependent clients. We find that large TARP recipient banks reduce credit supply to dependent borrowers in the post-TARP period. A large fraction of credit supply reduction is due to regulatory uncertainty on account of an increased likelihood of fines. Liquidity hoarding by TARP banks also drives part of the reduction in credit supply. Relationship borrowers experience a valuation loss around the announcements of their main banks’ TARP approvals consistent with a credit supply reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101367"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143144323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk-taking?
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360
Selim Elekdag , Drilona Emrullahu , Sami Ben Naceur
{"title":"Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk-taking?","authors":"Selim Elekdag ,&nbsp;Drilona Emrullahu ,&nbsp;Sami Ben Naceur","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk-taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, the paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk-taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis). Using a curated database covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk-taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship. Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk-taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature, which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101360"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do portfolio companies learn from their peers? Evidence from venture capital funding
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101373
Salim Chahine , Mai Daher
{"title":"Do portfolio companies learn from their peers? Evidence from venture capital funding","authors":"Salim Chahine ,&nbsp;Mai Daher","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of “learning from peers” on the fundraising abilities of startup companies. Employing data on the financing rounds of privately owned portfolio companies, we find that companies observe the round amounts of their most successful peers and learn to negotiate higher round amounts with venture capital investors. We further show that the number of common directors or venture capital firms between portfolio companies and their most successful peers has a positive impact on the round amounts of these portfolio companies, which supports the existence of conversational learning. Moreover, observational learning from peers is higher in hot markets, where investors rely on less costly information on peers. Our findings confirm that both observational and conversational learning allow portfolio companies to be in a better negotiating position, thus enhancing their ability to secure funding and invest in their growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101373"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bubbles, banking and monetary policy
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101362
Jae Hun Shim
{"title":"Bubbles, banking and monetary policy","authors":"Jae Hun Shim","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper lays out a quantitative macroeconomic model with rational risk-adjusted asset bubbles and banks. The model features an imperfect financial market structure and allows bubble assets within banks. We shed light on the channels by which a sudden burst of asset bubbles leads to a recession through the banking system and evaluate “leaning against the wind” monetary policy associated with bubble volatility and welfare. Our main findings call for monetary policy rules to preemptively stabilize intermediate asset prices rather than the bubbles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101362"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143144321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372
Yilin Chen , Chentong Sun , Xu Zhang
{"title":"Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors","authors":"Yilin Chen ,&nbsp;Chentong Sun ,&nbsp;Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures China's financial resilience from the perspective of external risk shocks and analyzes its influencing factors for forecasting. First, we introduce an innovative financial resilience model comprising three submodels: the dynamic factor model, the TVP-VAR model, and a resilience characteristic measurement model that captures resistance and recoverability through absorption intensity and absorption duration. The results show a clear inverse relationship between absorption intensity and absorption duration, with resilience fluctuations exhibiting distinct phase characteristics. Notably, intervals of low resilience often correspond to specific risk events. Second, we apply the Lasso-logistic model for recursive estimation and forecasting financial resilience, while comparing its performance to that of the Logistic regression model. The results indicate that the Lasso-logistic model achieves, on average, a 10 % higher forecasting accuracy than the Logistic model does. Among the most important features identified by the model are macroeconomic and public expectation variables. The analysis shows that the stability of economic fundamentals and market participants' confidence in the future play pivotal roles in strengthening financial resilience and ensuring the stability of the financial system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101372"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101361
Nikolaos Kiosses , Stergios Leventis , Demetres Subeniotis , Ioannis Tampakoudis
{"title":"The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A","authors":"Nikolaos Kiosses ,&nbsp;Stergios Leventis ,&nbsp;Demetres Subeniotis ,&nbsp;Ioannis Tampakoudis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101361","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101361","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of policy uncertainty (PU) on the economic impact of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A). Using a sample of 3142 deals announced by US banks between 1986 and 2020, we find a significant positive effect of PU on acquirer short- and long-term market value. PU also positively affects acquirer post-merger accounting performance and increases the incentives for synergy-driven bank M&amp;A. Amid PU, acquirers avoid stock-only financed deals, delay deal completion, and pay higher bid premiums. Our results are robust to model specifications that control for different proxies of PU, endogeneity, asset pricing models, and event windows surrounding deal announcements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101361"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asset class liquidity risk indicators. Timing the risk in the European and US equity and bond markets
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101369
Anna Coppola , Giovanni Urga , Alessandro Varaldo
{"title":"Asset class liquidity risk indicators. Timing the risk in the European and US equity and bond markets","authors":"Anna Coppola ,&nbsp;Giovanni Urga ,&nbsp;Alessandro Varaldo","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we propose asset class liquidity risk indicators constructed by aggregating financial, monetary and credit variables. We measure the presence of liquidity in six highly representative markets such as the Equity Europe, Long Term Italian Government Bond, Short Term Euro Government Bond, Equity US, Bond Corporate Investment Grade USD, Short Term US Government Bond markets over the period January 2007–January 2023. Our approach allows for a time-varying measure of the relative contribution of the raw drivers to the asset class indicators. We use endogenous Markov-switching models to identify episodes of financial distress which have characterized the behaviour of assets over the last two decades. Finally, we map the Markov-switching regimes with bubble episodes identified via recursive testing procedures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101369"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of religiosity on trust and altruism: Evidence from China’s household borrowing
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101364
Jie Jiao , An Yan , Wei Yin
{"title":"The effect of religiosity on trust and altruism: Evidence from China’s household borrowing","authors":"Jie Jiao ,&nbsp;An Yan ,&nbsp;Wei Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101364","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using China’s religion and household survey data, we find that a high degree of religiosity increases households’ willingness to borrow, both formally from financial institutions and informally from family and friends. A high degree of religiosity could facilitate formal household borrowing by fostering trust in transactions. However, the trust mechanism cannot explain the impact of religiosity on informal borrowing. We hypothesize that a strong religiosity might facilitate informal loans by promoting altruism, and we find supporting evidence. The effect of religiosity on informal loans is more pronounced in transactions where the parties involved are intrinsically less altruistic toward each other.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101364"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143144319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101386
Pierre Nkou Mananga , Shiqiang Lin , Hairui Zhang
{"title":"A network approach to interbank contagion risk in South Africa","authors":"Pierre Nkou Mananga ,&nbsp;Shiqiang Lin ,&nbsp;Hairui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the resilience of the South African banking sector by applying a dynamic agent-based model and the DebtRank algorithm. In contrast to previous studies focusing on listed banks, our methodology includes both listed and non-listed institutions that make up the banking industry, thereby capturing the systemic importance and vulnerability of all banks within the interbank market network. Our findings indicate that while larger banks exhibit greater systemic importance, a statistically significant correlation exists between a bank’s interbank-lending-to-equity ratio and vulnerability. Moreover, a bank’s size and specific interbank activities influence its systemic contribution, both in terms of importance and vulnerability. These insights offer policymakers an empirically grounded framework for improving financial stability monitoring and risk mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101386"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143201032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The flight home effect during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from syndicated loans
IF 6.1 2区 经济学
Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101370
Georgios Bampinas , Magnus Blomkvist , Elias Demetriades , Panagiotis N. Politsidis
{"title":"The flight home effect during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from syndicated loans","authors":"Georgios Bampinas ,&nbsp;Magnus Blomkvist ,&nbsp;Elias Demetriades ,&nbsp;Panagiotis N. Politsidis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides evidence of a flight home effect in the syndicated loan market during the COVID-19 pandemic, where lenders rebalance their loan portfolios towards domestic borrowers. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in COVID exposure in the lenders’ home country is associated with a 4.1 percentage point decrease in lenders’ share of foreign loans. This home bias eases with the intensity of government restrictions during the pandemic and strengthens with expansionary monetary policy. We further pinpoint an operative supply-side mechanism, where smaller, less capitalized banks with a higher proportion of non-performing loans are more likely to rebalance towards domestic borrowers. Although different forms of asymmetric information exert a material – yet not uniform – effect on the lenders’ rebalancing decisions, the flight home effect emerges independently of the existence of these information asymmetries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101370"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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