{"title":"公司层面的政治风险与股价暴跌","authors":"Panagiota Makrychoriti , Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101303","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we examine the relationship between firm-level political risk and stock price crash risk. Using a broad dataset of 4230 U.S. firms, 38,097 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2019, we reveal a positive association between political risk and stock price crash risk. These findings are robust to several model specifications and endogeneity checks. By using the Brexit referendum as a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence of a causal relationship between political risk and crash risk. Through channel analysis, we identify that this relationship is mediated via higher idiosyncratic volatility, lower price informativeness, and higher distress risk. We also find that our results are more pronounced in intangible-intensive firms. Interestingly, we show that managers of these firms respond to political risk by engaging in bad news hoarding. Finally, strong (external or internal) corporate governance mechanisms can moderate the positive relationship between political risk and stock price crash risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"74 ","pages":"Article 101303"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000883/pdfft?md5=87b7265bb0a7ed9cf0fea37aaf7068d5&pid=1-s2.0-S1572308924000883-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Firm-level political risk and stock price crashes\",\"authors\":\"Panagiota Makrychoriti , Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101303\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>In this study, we examine the relationship between firm-level political risk and stock price crash risk. Using a broad dataset of 4230 U.S. firms, 38,097 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2019, we reveal a positive association between political risk and stock price crash risk. These findings are robust to several model specifications and endogeneity checks. By using the Brexit referendum as a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence of a causal relationship between political risk and crash risk. Through channel analysis, we identify that this relationship is mediated via higher idiosyncratic volatility, lower price informativeness, and higher distress risk. We also find that our results are more pronounced in intangible-intensive firms. Interestingly, we show that managers of these firms respond to political risk by engaging in bad news hoarding. Finally, strong (external or internal) corporate governance mechanisms can moderate the positive relationship between political risk and stock price crash risk.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48027,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Financial Stability\",\"volume\":\"74 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101303\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000883/pdfft?md5=87b7265bb0a7ed9cf0fea37aaf7068d5&pid=1-s2.0-S1572308924000883-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Financial Stability\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000883\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Financial Stability","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924000883","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, we examine the relationship between firm-level political risk and stock price crash risk. Using a broad dataset of 4230 U.S. firms, 38,097 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2019, we reveal a positive association between political risk and stock price crash risk. These findings are robust to several model specifications and endogeneity checks. By using the Brexit referendum as a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence of a causal relationship between political risk and crash risk. Through channel analysis, we identify that this relationship is mediated via higher idiosyncratic volatility, lower price informativeness, and higher distress risk. We also find that our results are more pronounced in intangible-intensive firms. Interestingly, we show that managers of these firms respond to political risk by engaging in bad news hoarding. Finally, strong (external or internal) corporate governance mechanisms can moderate the positive relationship between political risk and stock price crash risk.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Financial Stability provides an international forum for rigorous theoretical and empirical macro and micro economic and financial analysis of the causes, management, resolution and preventions of financial crises, including banking, securities market, payments and currency crises. The primary focus is on applied research that would be useful in affecting public policy with respect to financial stability. Thus, the Journal seeks to promote interaction among researchers, policy-makers and practitioners to identify potential risks to financial stability and develop means for preventing, mitigating or managing these risks both within and across countries.
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