Ayşe İmrohoroğlu , Çağrı S. Kumru , Jiu Lian , Arm Nakornthab
{"title":"Revisiting taxes on high incomes","authors":"Ayşe İmrohoroğlu , Çağrı S. Kumru , Jiu Lian , Arm Nakornthab","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we study income taxation in a model with entrepreneurial activity<span>. We conduct two types of changes in tax policy: changing the overall progressivity of taxes versus changing the tax rate on the richest 1% of the population. Our results indicate that increasing the tax rate on the richest 1% of the population is more effective in raising revenues than increasing the overall progressivity of taxes as it leads to smaller declines in capital and output. We find that incorporating entrepreneurship in generating a reasonable wealth distribution leads to revenue-maximizing progressivity to be smaller than found previously.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 1159-1184"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135515194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Money laundering and the privacy design of central bank digital currency","authors":"Zijian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper studies the implications of money laundering for the optimal design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). I build a general equilibrium framework to explicitly allow money laundering by agents and income audits by a government. I find that as long as CBDC offers less anonymity than cash, introducing CBDC will decrease money laundering. However, if CBDC still offers a relatively high level of anonymity but a low </span>interest rate, then introducing CBDC will decrease the output from not only agents who launder money but also agents who do not. If CBDC instead offers low anonymity and a high interest rate, then introducing CBDC can increase aggregate welfare without lowering output. Furthermore, introducing CBDC needs not increase the funding costs of banks or decrease bank lending.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 604-632"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135220294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The risk-premium channel of uncertainty: Implications for unemployment and inflation","authors":"Lukas B. Freund , Hanbaek Lee , Pontus Rendahl","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2022.12.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2022.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in a search-and-matching framework with risk-averse households. Heightened uncertainty about future productivity reduces current economic activity even in the absence of nominal rigidities. A risk-premium mechanism accounts for this result. As future asset prices become more volatile and covary more positively with aggregate consumption, the risk premium rises in the present. The associated downward pressure on current asset values lowers firm entry, making it harder for workers to find jobs and reducing the supply of goods. With nominal rigidities the recession is exacerbated, as a more uncertain future reinforces households' precautionary behavior, which causes demand to contract. Counterfactual analyses using a calibrated model imply that unemployment would rise by less than half as much absent the risk-premium channel. The presence of this mechanism implies that uncertainty shocks are less deflationary than regular demand shocks, nor can they be fully neutralized by monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 117-137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202522000655/pdfft?md5=f2fc5d8502334a2c9f3c558918cbe731&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202522000655-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138739247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rescue policies for small businesses in the COVID-19 recession","authors":"Alessandro Di Nola , Leo Kaas , Haomin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While the COVID-19 pandemic had a large and asymmetric impact on firms, many countries quickly enacted massive business rescue programs which are specifically targeted to smaller firms. Little is known about the effects of such policies on business entry and exit, investment, factor reallocation, and macroeconomic outcomes. This paper builds a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and financially constrained firms in order to evaluate the short- and long-term consequences of small firm rescue programs in a pandemic recession. We calibrate the stationary equilibrium and the pandemic shock to the U.S. economy, taking into account the factual Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) as a specific policy. We find that the policy has only a modest impact on aggregate output and employment because (i) jobs are saved predominately in the smallest firms that account for a minor share of employment and (ii) the grant reduces the reallocation of resources towards larger and less impacted firms. Much of the reallocation effects occur in the aftermath of the pandemic episode. By preventing inefficient liquidations, the policy dampens the long-term declines of aggregate consumption and of the real wage, thus delivering small welfare gains.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 579-603"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202523000224/pdfft?md5=b388eb21a2fb0949abec3e701f90a524&pid=1-s2.0-S1094202523000224-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85255310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal GDP-indexed bonds","authors":"Yasin Kürşat Önder","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I investigate the introduction of GDP-indexed bonds as an additional source of government borrowing in a quantitative default model. The idea of linking debt payments to developments in GDP resurfaced with the 1980s debt crisis and peaked with the COVID-19 outbreak. I show that the gains from this idea depend on the underlying indexation method and are highest if payments are symmetrically tied to developments in GDP. Optimized indexed debt can eradicate default risk, halve consumption volatility, and increase asset prices while raising the government's debt balances. These changes occur because an optimally chosen indexation method does a better job at completing the markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 747-777"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78974358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal policy and the monetary transmission mechanism","authors":"Nicolas Caramp , Dejanir H. Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>The economy's response to monetary policy depends on its fiscal backing. We present a novel decomposition of the equilibrium that links the </span>wealth<span> effect, i.e. the revaluation of households' financial and human wealth, to the fiscal response to monetary policy. When monetary policy has fiscal consequences, monetary variables affect the timing of aggregate output while fiscal variables shape its present value and the wealth effect. Consequently, a contractionary monetary policy reduces </span></span>inflation only if followed by contractionary fiscal policy. The slope of the Phillips curve determines the importance of monetary-fiscal coordination for the effectiveness of monetary policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 716-746"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90007164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contract enforcement and preventive healthcare: Theory and evidence","authors":"Shiv Dixit","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.09.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I study how enforcement frictions in health insurance contracts determine the distribution of preventive care. I show that when contracts are weakly enforced, insurers underinvest in preventive care to perpetuate the need for insurance. This mechanism is self-enforcing, whereby low levels of prevention today breed low levels of prevention in the future. In contrast, I show that dynamic contracts that are perfectly enforced do not feature such history dependence. Leveraging these results, I devise a test to show that the hypothesis of limited commitment cannot be rejected in the data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 1048-1094"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134977991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market uncertainty and international trade","authors":"Haichao Fan , Guangyu Nie , Zhiwei Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>We study the consequences of market uncertainty on international trade. An increase in foreign market uncertainty dampens China's aggregate exports on both the extensive and intensive margins. The adverse effects are more pronounced in </span>industries facing tighter financial constraints than in others. We propose a dynamic trade model to explain the facts. Greater uncertainty depresses a firm's expected value of exporting and borrowing capacity, leading to fewer exporters and smaller average size of exports. Under calibrated parameters, the uncertainty shock accounts for a sizable fraction of China's trade collapse in the 2008 financial crisis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 450-478"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135658844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dario Bonciani , David Gauthier , Derrick Kanngiesser
{"title":"Slow recoveries, endogenous growth and macro-prudential policy","authors":"Dario Bonciani , David Gauthier , Derrick Kanngiesser","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Financial crises have severe short and long-term consequences. We develop a general equilibrium model with financial frictions and </span>endogenous growth<span> in which macro-prudential policy supports economic activity and productivity growth by strengthening the resilience of financial intermediaries to adverse shocks. The improved intermediation capacity of a safer financial system leads to a higher steady-state growth rate. The optimal capital ratio increases welfare by 8%, one order of magnitude more than in the case without endogenous growth.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 698-715"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135409575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"When to lock, not whom: Managing epidemics using time-based restrictions","authors":"Yinon Bar-On , Tatiana Baron , Ofer Cornfeld , Eran Yashiv","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present novel policy tools to manage epidemics. Rather than using prevalent population restrictions, these policy strategies are based on cyclical time restrictions. Key findings on the outcomes of such policy strategies include: a significant improvement of social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs between economic activity and health outcomes; optimally-derived timings of interventions are shown to suppress the disease, while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida over the course of 2020.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Pages 292-321"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74351677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}