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Pricing-to-market in business cycle models 商业周期模型中的市场定价
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101333
Lukasz A. Drozd , Marcin Kolasa , Jaromir B. Nosal
{"title":"Pricing-to-market in business cycle models","authors":"Lukasz A. Drozd ,&nbsp;Marcin Kolasa ,&nbsp;Jaromir B. Nosal","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate several leading microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms embedded in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by real and financial shocks. Across these frameworks, including the reduced-form Kimball specification, we identify a fundamental <em>parameterization trilemma</em>: models typically struggle to simultaneously match empirically plausible producer markups, muted expenditure switching (low short-run trade elasticity), and the low exchange-rate pass-through needed to account for the business-cycle dynamics of prices and quantities. We provide an analytical characterization of this trilemma and quantitatively assess each model’s performance vis-à-vis a unified set of empirical benchmarks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101333"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the elasticity of substitution between labor and ICT and IP capital and traditional capital 论劳动力与信息通信技术、知识产权资本与传统资本的替代弹性
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101332
Vahagn Jerbashian
{"title":"On the elasticity of substitution between labor and ICT and IP capital and traditional capital","authors":"Vahagn Jerbashian","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I estimate a nested CES production function for a panel of European countries, distinguishing between information and communication technologies (ICT), intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital. I allow for differences in the elasticities of substitution between labor, an aggregate of ICT and IP capital, and traditional capital. Results indicate that ICT and IP together are gross substitutes for labor, whereas traditional capital is a gross complement. Rapid technological progress and capital accumulation in ICT and IP capital largely explain the decline in labor income share. The imputed labor-aggregate capital elasticity of substitution is below 1 but increases over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101332"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Returns to experience and the elasticity of labor supply 经验回报与劳动力供给弹性
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101323
Scott French, TessM. Stafford
{"title":"Returns to experience and the elasticity of labor supply","authors":"Scott French,&nbsp;TessM. Stafford","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a unique dataset and novel empirical strategy to validate the predictions of labor supply models featuring returns to experience, quantify the bias in standard estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) that assume exogenous wage formation, and obtain an unbiased estimate of the IES. Our approach uses the insight that the bias in standard estimates shrinks as returns to experience decline in importance relative to the wage. Our identification strategy does not rely on the structure of the human capital accumulation process but does require observing workers over multiple periods at the very end of their careers. Using data on the daily labor supply of Florida fishermen, we obtain an estimate of the IES that is large (2.5). Consistent with the theory, we find that a “naive” estimate is biased downward by nearly a factor of 2 and that the bias is larger for fishermen early in their career. (JEL E24, J22, J24, J31)</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101323"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146154365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional monetary policies and inequality 非常规货币政策与不平等
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101334
Donggyu Lee
{"title":"Unconventional monetary policies and inequality","authors":"Donggyu Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the aggregate and distributional effects of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy, comprising quantitative easing and forward guidance, during the 2009–2015 effective lower bound episode, using an estimated medium-scale heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model. Relative to a counterfactual without unconventional policy, these interventions stimulate aggregate activity and generate broad-based welfare gains, with an average gain equivalent to a 0.27 percent increase in lifetime consumption. These welfare gains are mildly U-shaped across the wealth distribution, with households at the bottom gaining mainly from a lower unemployment rate, while higher profits and equity prices benefit the top disproportionately. Comparing these outcomes to an unconstrained conventional interest rate rule, I find that once unconventional tools are available the effective lower bound is not very costly in aggregate terms, while conventional policy alone would have implied somewhat more uneven distributional effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101334"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Entry decision, the option to delay entry, and business cycles 进入决策、延迟进入的选项和业务周期
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101319
Ia Vardishvili
{"title":"Entry decision, the option to delay entry, and business cycles","authors":"Ia Vardishvili","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101319","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101319","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper demonstrates that the option to delay entry plays an important role in shaping the business cycle behavior of new firms. Using a model calibrated to U.S. firm dynamics, I show that the timing option endogenously generates a countercyclical opportunity cost of entry: during recessions, elevated risk of failure increases the value of waiting, which raises the effective cost of entry. I provide empirical evidence consistent with firms strategically delaying entry in response to changing aggregate conditions. Quantitatively, this channel significantly amplifies firm selection at entry and nearly doubles the cyclical volatility of new firm creation. Overall, variation in the number and composition of entrants accounts for 18 % of aggregate employment fluctuations—a contribution more than halved in a model without the option to delay. Ignoring this channel may also lead to misleading predictions about how new firm entry responds to policy interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101319"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time averaging meets Heckman, Lochner, and Taber and Ben-Porath 时间平均符合Heckman， Lochner， Taber和Ben-Porath
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101309
Sebastian Graves , Victoria Gregory , Lars Ljungqvist , Thomas J. Sargent
{"title":"Time averaging meets Heckman, Lochner, and Taber and Ben-Porath","authors":"Sebastian Graves ,&nbsp;Victoria Gregory ,&nbsp;Lars Ljungqvist ,&nbsp;Thomas J. Sargent","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The <span><span>Heckman et al. (1998a)</span></span> (HLT) model includes credit markets and within-period labor supply indivisibilities, two essential features of <span><span>Ljungqvist and Sargent (2006)</span></span> “time-averaging” models. But by assuming inelastic labor supplies until a mandatory retirement age, it shuts down time-averaging. We activate time-averaging by endogenizing retirement ages. Our addition of a baseline social security system puts all workers at corner solutions of their retirement decisions, letting our model reproduce most outcomes in HLT's model. By dislodging workers from those corners, social security and tax reforms raise the aggregate labor supply elasticity and can bring about a “dual labor market.” HLT's Ben-Porath human capital technologies generate steeper earnings profiles for college-educated workers that in our model make their labor supplies more resilient to tax and social security reforms than high school workers' labor supplies. But nonconvexities inherent in the Ben-Porath technologies can bring “tipping points” at which tax increases cause workers who at lower tax rates had chosen long careers and made substantial human capital investments to jump discretely to choosing much shorter careers and doing much less on-the-job human capital accumulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101309"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145546709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Go big or buy a home: The impact of student debt on career and housing choices 做大还是买房：学生债务对职业和住房选择的影响
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101317
Marc Folch , Luca Mazzone
{"title":"Go big or buy a home: The impact of student debt on career and housing choices","authors":"Marc Folch ,&nbsp;Luca Mazzone","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Student debt decreases post-bachelor school enrollment and earnings growth but does not delay first-time home ownership. We introduce a life-cycle human capital model with wealth heterogeneity and financial frictions and show that high debt balances distort career choices because returns to further education depend on current income. Student debt impacts home ownership in two ways. First, it deters ownership via the traditional wealth channel. Second, it increases ownership by discouraging further education in favor of early labor market entry. Finally, we discuss the impact of student borrowing under different loan repayment schemes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101317"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Job Ladders by Firm Wage and Productivity” [Review of Economic Dynamics 58C (2025) 101307] “按企业工资及生产力划分的职位阶梯”的勘误表[经济动态评论58C (2025) 101307]
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101320
Antoine Bertheau , Rune Vejlin
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Job Ladders by Firm Wage and Productivity” [Review of Economic Dynamics 58C (2025) 101307]","authors":"Antoine Bertheau ,&nbsp;Rune Vejlin","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101320","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101320"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146172859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Protectionism and inequality 保护主义和不平等
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101322
Zhe (Jasmine) Jiang , Zinan Wang
{"title":"Protectionism and inequality","authors":"Zhe (Jasmine) Jiang ,&nbsp;Zinan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2026.101322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the distributional outcomes of protectionism. First, we investigate the short-run distributional effects on workers with different skill levels by estimating structural vector autoregressions (VARs) using high-frequency measures of temporary trade barriers for the United States. We then estimate a panel VAR for a sample of thirty-six countries using the applied tariff rates. Across our empirical exercises, we find robust evidence that protectionism reduces the skill premium but increases the employment ratio between high-skilled and low-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model featuring asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production, and producer dynamics. Our model results replicate the empirical patterns. Our counterfactual analysis highlights the interaction between asymmetric SAM and CSC in qualitatively shaping the distributional patterns of protectionism, with producer dynamics magnifying these effects quantitatively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101322"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sources of rising student debt in the U.S.: College costs, wage inequality, and delinquency 美国学生债务上升的来源：大学费用、工资不平等和拖欠
IF 2.1 3区 经济学
Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101318
Heejeong Kim, Jung Hwan Kim
{"title":"Sources of rising student debt in the U.S.: College costs, wage inequality, and delinquency","authors":"Heejeong Kim,&nbsp;Jung Hwan Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the quantitative implications of rising college costs, wage inequality, and delinquency for the growth of student debt in the U.S. Rising college costs and wage inequality are introduced as exogenous inputs into an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations model with choices of college attendance, student loans, and delinquency. In the benchmark economy, aggregate student debt rises by $314 billion between 1985 and 2014, accounting for approximately 64 % of the observed rise in undergraduate student loans in the U.S. The rise in college costs is the primary driver of the increased borrowing, while the rise in income risk and the decline in student ability lead to higher delinquency rates. Increasing delinquency significantly amplifies debt accumulation: in a counterfactual economy without the option of becoming delinquent, debt increases by only $178 billion. Finally, we show that income-driven repayment (IDR) plans can substantially moderate debt growth, leading to an increase of only $169 billion. This effect arises because IDR reduces delinquency rates by offering greater repayment flexibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101318"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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