国家间的信息经济传递

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.red.2025.101302

Alejandro Bernales , Hriday Karnani , Paula Margaretic

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引用次数: 0

摘要

即使考虑到各国之间基本的实际联系和金融联系，信息经济传递也至关重要。信息联系产生于代理人对国家经济活动的信念中的异常相互依赖。我们建议通过（国家之间）分析师对国家经济表现的一年预测误差的相关性来衡量这种相互依赖性。我们的测量是基于一个学习模型，在这个模型中，由于学习摩擦，当代理错误地评估有关同时影响多个国家的共同因素的新信息的质量时，就会发生信息传递。在各种有效性分析和鲁棒性检查下，以及在几个维度上解决内生性问题之后，信息相互依赖仍然是实质性的。此外，我们还证明了经济冲击的高阶溢出效应。

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Informational economic transmission between countries

Informational economic transmission is crucial even after accounting for countries' fundamental real and financial connections. Informational connections emerge from anomalous interdependence in agents' beliefs about countries' economic activity. We propose measuring this interdependence through the correlation (between countries) of analysts' one-year forecast errors about countries' economic performance. Our measure is based on a learning model in which informational transmission occurs when agents incorrectly assess the quality of new information regarding common factors that affect multiple countries simultaneously, due to learning frictions. Informational interdependence remains substantial under various validity analyses and robustness checks, and after addressing endogeneity concerns in several dimensions. Additionally, we demonstrate considerable higher-order spillovers of economic shocks.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Review of Economic Dynamics publishes meritorious original contributions to dynamic economics. The scope of the journal is intended to be broad and to reflect the view of the Society for Economic Dynamics that the field of economics is unified by the scientific approach to economics. We will publish contributions in any area of economics provided they meet the highest standards of scientific research.